• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation factor

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The Stability Evaluation Methods of Embankment on Soft Clay (연약지반 성토의 안정평가 방법)

  • Kang, Yea Mook;Lee, Dal Won;Kim, Ji Hoon;Kim, Tae Woo;Lim, Seong Hun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.260-270
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    • 1998
  • The field tests were performed to suggest the rational method for stability evaluation of soft clay. The behavior of settlement-displacement obtained by field monitoring system was to compare and analyze the results of the observationed method, and to investigate the complex behavior of soft clay with filling height. The results of this study are summarized as follows. 1. The horizontal displacement was suddenly increased when physical properties of soft clay showed maximum values and the part of the turning point. The values of these properties were available to the fundamental data for stability evaluation. The shear deformation appeared that difference of the horizontal displacement was maximum values. 2. Although the stability of embankment by step filling showed the unstable part over the failure standard line, the embankment was confirmed stable. So the evaluation of the stability of embankment is reasonable to use the inclination of curve than failure standard line. 3. The horizontal displacement and relative settlement were increased as same ratio at improvement ground. Estimation of shear deformation using Terzaghi's modified bearing capacity should consider the relations of embankment load and undrained shear strength at nonimprovement ground, and minimum safety factor is recommended to use larger than 1.2. 4. Excess pore water pressure was increased with increasing of filling height and decreased with maintain the filling height. The embankment was unstable when filling height was exceed the evaluation standard line, and the behavior of excess pore water pressure and horizontal displacement could use as a standard of judgement of the filling velocity control because their behavior were agree with each other.

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Evaluation and Application of CLUE-S Model for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Future Land use Change in Total Water Pollution Load Management System (오염총량관리제의 시공간적 미래 토지이용 변화분석을 위한 CLUE-S 모델의 적용 및 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Ahn, Ki Hong;Han, Mideok;Hwang, Hasun;Choi, Jaewan;Kim, Yong Seok;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.418-428
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to predict the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and to evaluate land-based pollutant loads in the future under Total Water Pollution Load Management System using CLUE-S model. For these ends, sensitive parameters of conversion elasticities in CLUE-S model were calibrated and these calibrated parameters of conversion elasticities, level II land cover map of year 2009, and 7 driving factors of land use changes were used in predicting future land uses in 2002 with two scenarios(Scenario 1: non area restriction, Scenario 2: area restriction). This projected land use map of 2020 was used to estimate land-based pollutant loads. It was expected that urban areas will increase in 2020 from both scenarios 1 and 2. In Scenario 1, urban areas are expected to increase within greenbelt areas and deforest would be expected. Under Scenario 2, these phenomena were not expected. Also the results of estimation of BOD and TP pollutant loads, the BOD difference between scenarios 1 and 2 was 719 kg/day in urban areas and TP difference was 17.60 kg/day in urban areas. As shown in this study, it was found that the CLUE-S model can be useful in future pollutant load estimations because of its capability of projecting future land uses considering various socio-economic driving factors and area-restriction factors, compared with conventionally used land use prediction model.

An Analysis on the Efficiency and the Determinants of International Competitiveness of Korean Power Plant Service Industry (국내 발전정비산업의 효율성 및 경쟁력 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun Jae;Park, Changsuh
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.361-382
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    • 2010
  • In 2005, the Korean government decided to postpone the introduction of competition up to 2009 in the power plant service industry. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiency changes and the determinants of international competitiveness of Korean power plant service industry by the comparison between before and after 2006. The sample used in the estimation of efficiency is six firms III Korean power plant service sector for the period of 2003~2008. According to the results, technical efficiency before 2006 (2003~2005) is 0.865 and that after 2005 (2006~2008) is 0.947, which implies that efficiency has been improved after the delay of introduction of competition. In addition, according to the analyses based on the diamond model of Porter using survey data, demand condition has been ranked first in the determinants of international competitiveness. The second and the third important conditions are government and input factor ones. Firm's strategy/structure/competitiveness condition is the most weak condition. Therefore, it would be necessary for firms to improve this condition for competitiveness.

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Health Risk Assessment of Disinfection By-products by Chlorination in Tap Water Ingestion (수도수중 염소 소독부산물로 인한 건강위해성 평가에 관한 연구 - 서울시 수도수중 Trihalomethanes 및 Haloaceticnitriles을 중심으로 -)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Park, Yeon-Shin;Kim, Jun-Sung
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.12 no.3_4
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 1997
  • Public concerns about hazardous health effect from the exposure to organic by-products of the chlorination have been increased. There are numerous studies reporting that chlorination of drinking water produces numerous chlorinated organic by-products including THMs, HAAs, HANs. Some of these products are known to be animal carcinogens. The purpose of this study was to estimate health risk of DBPs by chlorinated drinking water ingestion in Seoul based on methodologies that have been developed for conducting risk assessment of complex-chemical-mixture. The drinking water sample was collected seperately at six water treatment plant in Seoul at March, April, 1996. In tap water of households in Seoul, DBPs were measured wilfh the mean value of 36.6 $\mu$g/L. Risk assessment processes,. which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. The reference dose of haloacetonitriles was estimated to be 0.0023 mg/kg/day by applying dibromoacetonitrile NOAEL and uncertainty factor to the mean concentration. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL (maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates (mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for Trihalomethanes, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

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Visual Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Alternative Use of Barren Agricultural Land (유휴농경지(遊休農耕地)의 토지이용(土地利用) 대안(代案)에 대(代)한 시각선호(視覺選好)와 지불의사(支拂意思))

  • Kim, Seongil;Lee, Yeong-Joo;Song, Hyeong-Sop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.86 no.1
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 1997
  • In this research, photo images of uncultivated marginal lands were simulated to visualize alternative land use patterns using image capture technology. Based on an original photos, 3 simulated images were created ; barren condition, aforested condition and shrub-covered condition. The simulated images were then used to evaluate respondents' visual preference(SBE value) and willingness to pay for the agricultural development tax as a hypothetical payment vehicle. The SBE values for barren condition are the lowest, as expected. When original condition is changed to forested or shrubbed, the SBE values are increased significantly. The logistic models for the willingness to pay for the various alternative land uses performed significantly, ${\rho}$ statistics for 6 models ranges from 0.3 to 0.4 and correct percentage for predicted probability are about 75%. Among independent variables, the amount of tax offered is the most influencing factor to predict the probability. Income also shows some relationship with no statistical significance. Other variables behave inconsistently in the model. When SBE and WTP are correlated, rather consistent trends can be observed. With the increase of SBE, WTP predicted by the model increases accordingly. It can be concluded that enhancement of scenic quality of the agricultural lands leads to increase of people's willingness to pay to support the rural environmental conservation.

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Analysis and Prediction for Spatial Distribution of Functional Feeding Groups of Aquatic Insects in the Geum River (금강 수계 수서곤충 섭식기능군의 공간분포 분석 및 예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Park, Young-Jun;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

Experimental Research for CO2 Emission Estimation of Medium-Scale Excavator Reflecting Work Characteristics (작업 특성을 반영한 중규모 굴삭기의 CO2 배출량산정을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Seung Hyun;Lee, Dong Wook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.717-727
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    • 2017
  • Researches on the emissions of greenhouse gases in the construction industry, which accounts for 40% of raw materials, 30% of energy consumption, and 30% of $CO_2$ emissions in the entire industry, are mainly focused on studies of LCA. However, it is assessed that $CO_2$ emissions are higher in construction sequence than in operation sequence. Also, it is considered that construction machinery using fossil fuel is a main factor causing environmental load in construction sequence. Therefore, this study analyzes the workload and engine RPM characteristics of the excavator which is the second largest number of registered construction machinery in Korea and the highest utilization rate in actual construction site. The excavator is divided into non-load states and load states where power is transmitted to the excavator. The exhaust gas is analyzed by a direct measurement method using PEMS equipment. $CO_2$ emissions are estimated by analyzing the relationship between RPM and exhaust emission characteristics according to the actual driving conditions. Additionally, we analyze the difference between $CO_2$ emissions of construction machine calculated by this study and $CO_2$ emissions calculated by using carbon emission coefficient.

A study of Bayesian inference on auto insurance credibility application (자동차보험 신뢰도 적용에 대한 베이지안 추론 방식 연구)

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.689-699
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    • 2013
  • This paper studies the partial credibility application method by assuming the empirical prior or noninformative prior informations in auto insurnace business where intensive rating segmentation is expanded because of premium competition. Expanding of rating factor segmetation brings the increase of pricing cells, as a result, the number of cells for partial credibility application will increase correspondingly. This study is trying to suggest more accurate estimation method by considering the Bayesian framework. By using empirically well-known or noninformative information, inducing the proper posterior distribution and applying the Bayes estimate which is minimizing the error loss into the credibility method, we will show the advantage of Bayesian inference by comparison with current approaches. The comparison is implemented with square root rule which is a widely accepted method in insurance business. The convergence level towarding to the true risk will be compared among various approaches. This study introduces the alternative way of redcuing the error to the auto insurance business fields in need of various methods because of more segmentations.

Macroscopic Analysis of Traffic Flow in the Korean Coastal Waterway (한국연안의 해상교통류분석(I))

  • 이철영;문성혁;최종화;박양기
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.31-55
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    • 1986
  • Generally, the development of shipping is characterized by the amount of traffic flow (traffic volume) and seaborne cargo in the sea. Movement of ships is an essential element of constructing the traffic flow which is represented the dynamic movement of ships in the sea, but on the other band the numbers of arriving and departing the port is the basic factor consisting of the static movement of ships. The amount of cargoes by coastal vessels and ocean trade vessels have increased tremendously with the great growth of the Korean economy these days. This increase of the seaborne cargoes has made the Korean coastal traffic flow so congested that this can be a cause of large pollution as well as great marine casualities such as a loss of human lives and properties . And also the future coastal traffic is expected to increase considerably according to our economic development and high dependence upon foreign trade. Under the circumstance, to devise the safety of coastal traffic flow and to take a proper step of a efficient navigation, there is a necessity for analyzing and surveying the coastal traffic trend and the characteristics of cargo movement. In order to grasp the dynamic movement of ships in the Korean coast, O/D analysis is executed. This paper aims to secure the basic data necessary for a comprehensive plan and estimation of vessel traffic management system for the enhancement of safety, order and efficiency of vessel traffic in the Korean coast. The analyzed results of the traffic flow and seaborne cargoes of the Korean coast are summarized as follows : 1) The congestion by the vessels occurred around the ports such as-in proportion of ship's number (proportion of tonnage) -Incheon 18.5%(14.8%), Pohang 5.9% (9.9%), Samil 5.2%(8.3%), Mokpo 8.6%(0.8%), Pusan 13.5%(36.4%), Ulsan 9.1%(16.2%). 2) It is found that the area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed thatthe area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed that the coastal vessels are main elements constituting the coastal traffic and that there are much traffic flow among five ports as following through the precise O/D analysis of ship's coastal movement. Incheon-Samil, Ulsan, Pusan, Jeju Pusan -Samil, Ulsan, Incheon, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Inchoen, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Ulsan -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Samil -Ulsan, Pusan, Incheon 4) The amount of cargoes to abroad are in proportion about 81% of total and the amount of coastal cargoes are about 19%. Of those, cargoes in and out to Japan are about 26% and to South-east Asia are about 27%. 5) The chief items of foreign cargoes are oil(38.33%), iron ore(13.98%), bituminoous coal(12.74%), grain(8.02%), lumber(6.45%) in the import cargoes and steel material(21.96%), cement(17.16%), oil(6.81%), fertilizer(3.80%) in the export cargoes. 6) The 80.5% of total export cargoes and 92.4% of total import cargoes are flowed in five main ports. 7) The chief items of coastal cargoes are oil (42.45%), cement(16.86%), steel material (6.49%), anthracite(6.31%), mineral product(4.3%), grain, and fertilizer. Almost 92.24% of total import and export oil cargoes in Korea is loaded and unloaded at the port of Samil & Ulsan.

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Genome size of 15 Lamiaceae taxa in Korea (한국산 꿀풀과 15 분류군에 대한 유전체양 조사)

  • Lee, Yoonkyung;Kim, Sangtae
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2017
  • The genome size is one of the basic characters of an organism, and it is widely applied in various fields of biology, such as systematics, breeding biology, population biology, and evolutionary biology. This factor was recently highlighted in genome studies because choosing a representative of a plant group having the smallest genome size is important for the efficiency of a genome project. For the estimation of the genome size, flow cytometry has recently been highlighted because it is a convenient, fast, and reliable method. In this study, we report the genome sizes of 15 taxa of Lamiaceae from nine genera distributed in Korea using flow cytometry. Data pertaining to the genome size for all of our species have not been reported thus far, and the data from Agastache, Clinopodium, Elsholtzia, and Isodon are the first reported for each genus. The genome sizes of 15 genera and 39 species were reported to the Plant DNA C-values Database (http://data.kew.org/cvalues/). Scutellaria indica L. has a genome size of 0.37 pg (1C). This is the fourth smallest value among the 98 Lamiaceae taxa in the Angiosperm DNA C-value Database, indicating that this taxon can be used as a reference species in the genome studies in Lamiaceae as a native Korean species. The largest genome size observed in this study is in Phlomis umbrosa Turcz. (1C=2.60 pg), representing the possible polyploidy origin of this species in the family.