• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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Revisit to Estimate the Time Cost of Ships and Cargoes (우리나라 항만에서의 체선ㆍ체화 시간비용 재추정)

  • Chang, Young-Tae;Sung, Souk-Kyung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2002
  • The time cost of ship end cargoes is one of the most important data for decision-making of port investment and operational efficiency. Studies in this area were initiated internationally by Goss and Mann in late 70's and also done in Korea 10 years ago using the same methodology as Goss. The main purpose of this paper is to revisit to estimate the time cost using updated data. The estimation was undertaken sampling data on various investment and operating costs by vessel from 205 vessels, comprising 47.5% of the notional fleet in Korea as well as on cargoes from international trade statistics. Compared with the study of 10 years ago, major finding of this research is that time costs of liquid and dry bulk carriers have increased, in case of the former type, showing almost doubled cost increase. The increase is deemed to be caused by very expensive LNG carriers. Lowered social discount rate in this study compared with 10 years ago, in general, has mused the costs to stay at similar level to the previous study. Sensitivity tests were conducted using various social discount rates.

Performance Evaluation System for Tow-Channel Ring-Core Flux-Gate Compass (2-체널 링-코어 프럭스-게이트 콤파스의 성능평가 시스템 개발)

  • 임정빈;김봉석
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2002
  • Design and implementation methodologies on the performance evaluation system of two-channel ring-core Flux-Gate Compass (FG-Compass) are described, with evaluation procedures and methods based on the polynomial regression models. Performance evaluation system is consists of a step motor driving unit, a bearing transmitting unit and, evaluation programs using polynomial regression formulae. Through performance evaluation tests, total residual deviation tests, total residual deviation of $\pm$4$^{\circ}$ and eigen residual deviation of $\pm$2$^{\circ}$ are obtained from the FG-Compass. The result is more accurate values than the typical FG-Compass with eigen residual deviation of $\pm$4$^{\circ}$ and is provide a possibility to develop a high performance FG-Compass. In addition, the design methodology of a smart FG-Compass with the self estimation and correction of residual deviations is also discussed.

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Crack Initiation Life Analysis in Notched Pipe Under Cyclic Bending Loads (굽힘피로 하중을 받는 배관의 피로균열 발생수명 예측)

  • Gwak, Sang-Rok;Lee, Jun-Seong;Kim, Yeong-Jin;Park, Yun-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.25 no.10
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    • pp.1528-1534
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    • 2001
  • In order to improve Leak-Be(ore-Break methodology, more precisely the crack growth evaluation, a round robin analysis was proposed by the CEA Saclay. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the crack initiation life, penetration life and shape of through wall crack under cyclic bending loads. The proposed round robin analysis is composed of three main topic; fatigue crack initiation, crack propagation and crack penetration. This paper deals with the first topic, crack initiation in a notched pipe under four point bending. Both elastic-plastic finite element analysis and Neuber's rule were used to estimate the crack initiation life and the finite element models were verified by mesh-refinement, stress distribution and global deflection. In elastic-plastic finite element analysis, crack initiation life was determined by strain amplitude at the notch tip and strain-life curve of the material. In the analytical method, Neuber's rule with the consideration of load history and mean stress effect, was used for the life estimation. The effect of notch tip radius, strain range, cyclic hardening rule were examined in this study. When these results were compared with the experimental ones, the global deformation was a good agreement but the crack initiation cycle was higher than the experimental result.

Study on for Estimation of Ecological Instream Requirement in Nakdong River (낙동강권역 생태계 필요유량 산정방법 비교 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Eun;Kim, Jeong-Kon;Jeong, Young-Won;Lee, Sang-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.180-180
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    • 2011
  • 하천의 정상적인 기능 및 상태를 유지하기 위하여 필요한 최소유량을 의미하는 하천유지유량은 하천수질보전, 하천생태계보호, 하천경관보전, 염수침입 방지, 하구막힘 방지, 하천시설물 및 취수원보호, 지하수위 유지 등을 감안하여 산정하게 된다. 하천유량 변화는 하천내 동 식물에 영향을 미치며, 특히 고등 생물인 어류의 서식처, 산란장소 및 산란조건 등은 유량 및 수위변화에 민감하게 반응하므로 하천구간별 어류의 서식처 유지에 적절한 수심, 유속 등 수리 조건을 제공할 수 있는 유량을 산정하게 된다. 국내에서는 90년대 후반부터 생태계를 고려한 하천유지유량 개념이 도입되었으며, 어류의 적절한 수생 서식환경 평가를 위해 주로 유량 점증 방법론(IFIM, Instream Flow Incremental Methodology) 개념에 입각한 물리서식처 모형을 이용한 연구가 진행되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강수계 13개 지점을 선정하여 어류상 조사를 실시하여 어류의 물리서식처 모형과 수심-유속-유량 관계곡선을 이용한 간단법을 이용하여 생태계 보전을 위한 필요유량을 산정하였다. 어류 물리서식처 모형으로는 어류서식환경 평가에 가장 광범위하게 이용되고, 생태적 특성을 반영할 수 있는 유량점증방법론의 PHABSIM(Physical HABitat SIMulation) 모형을 선택하였다. 현장 모니터링 및 문헌조사를 통해 각 지점별 대표어종을 선정하고, 유량, 수심, 저수로 하천단면, 하상재료와 같은 수리특성을 조사하고, 선정된 한계단면에 대한 유량측정을 실시하였으며, 수심-유속-유량 관계곡선을 통하여 각 지점의 대표어종이 서식할 수 있는 최소유량을 산정하였다. 또한 지점별로 서식처 적합도 지수(HSI, Habitat Suitability Index)와 가중가용면적(WUA, Weighted Usable Area)를 산정하였으며, 이는 PHABSIM 모형의 적용에 이용되었다. 물리서식처 모형과 간단법 적용결과를 비교해본 결과, 모든 지점에서 물리서식처 모형 적용결과가 간단법에 비해 크게 산정되었는데, 이는 간단법이 성어기 서식에 필요한 최소 수리조건을 선택하였지만, PHABSIM의 경우 성어기 어류서식의 최적 수심 및 유속을 이용하여 가중가용면적을 산정하기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. 어류서식과 관련된 많은 관련 데이터가 축적된다면 어류서식처에 맞는 최적의 생태유량을 보다 정확하게 산정할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Uniform Load Distribution Using Sampling-Based Cost Estimation in Parallel Join (병렬 조인에서 샘플링 기반 비용 예측 기법을 이용한 균등 부하 분산)

  • Park, Ung-Gyu
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.1468-1480
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    • 1999
  • In database systems, join operations are the most complex and time consuming ones which limit performance of such system. Many parallel join algorithms have been proposed for the systems. However, they did not consider data skew, such as attribute value skew (AVS) and join product skew (JPS). In the skewness environments, performance of framework for a uniform load distribution and an efficient parallel join algorithm using the framework to handle AVS and JPS. In our algorithm, we estimate data distributions of input and output relations of join operations using the sampling methodology and evaluate join cost for the estimated data distributions. Finally, using the histogram equalization method we distribute data among nodes to achieve good load balancing among nodes in the local joining phase. For performance comparison, we present simulation model of our algorithm and other join algorithms and present the result of some simulation experiments. The results indicate that our algorithm outperforms other algorithms in the skewed case.

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The Study on the System to Estimate the Cost by Using Regression in the Early Stage of the Project (공사 초기단계에서의 회귀분석을 이용한 최종공사비(EAC) 추정 방법)

  • Lee, Youn-Mi;Lee, Man-Hee;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.274-277
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    • 2006
  • The EAC(Estimate at Completion) among existing methods, which estimate cost and time effectively, help managers anticipate changeable several results at the point of $15{\sim}30%$ in the project progress. However, this method may cause such some problems as not to consider the periodically changing circumstances caused by construction risks or uncertainties which can affect the cost and time in the project, and to regard collected and accumulated data only as a single value when predicting the results on the progress. Accordingly, it is very difficult to accept the even small range of variability based on the anticipation of EAC. Consequently, the study focuses on the possibility methodology to anticipate time and cost accurately on the way to utilize EVMS(Earned Value Management System), and also suggest the way to perform the right estimation of EAC as considering various risks and uncertainties in construction projects.

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An Empirical Study on the Effects of the Role of EA Operating Unit and EA Utilization Capability on the EA Performance (EA 담당조직의 역할과 EA 활용역량이 EA 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Park, Il-Kyu;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Seo, Il-Jung
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 2010
  • Recently, many organizations are actively adopting Enterprise Architecture (EA) as a methodology to manage IT assets and build IT-based business system. However, most existing studies on EA have focused on the adoption stage of EA. Now the research concerning effective management and utilization of EA after adopting EA is keenly required. This study intended to empirically examine how the role of EA operating unit and the EA utilization capability of organizational members impact on EA performance at the post-adoption stage of EA. Based on Resource Based View (RBV), this study proposed the model and the hypotheses describing that the impact of the role of EA operating unit on EA performance is mediated by the EA utilization capability of organizational members. In order to test the hypotheses, the field survey whose respondents were seventy four Korean public agencies which have adopted EA was conducted by means of questionnaire. Data analysis was done with partial least square (PLS), which is a structural equation modeling (SEM) technique that uses a component-based approach to estimation. The results of the empirical analyses showed that the organizational operation ability of EA operating unit significantly influenced EA performance via the EA utilization capability of organizational members, but that EA education and training performed by EA operating unit did not. The results of this study provided a lot of theoretical and practical implications regarding EA management activities at the post-adoption stage of EA to enhance EA performance.

Learning Process Monitoring of e-Learning for Corporate Education (기업교육을 위한 인터넷 원격훈련 학습과정 모니터링 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hun;Jung, Hyojung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to conduct a monitoring study on the learning process of e-learning contents. This study has two research objectives. First, by conducting monitoring research on the learning process, we aim to explore the implications for content development that reflects future student needs. Second, we want to collect empirical basic data on the estimation of appropriate amount of learning. Research design, data, and methodology - This study is a case study of learner's learning process in e-learning. After completion of the study, an in-depth interview was made after conducting a test to measure the total amount of cognitive load and the level of engagement that occurred during the learning process. The tool used to measure cognitive load is NASA-TLX, a subjective cognitive load measurement method. In the monitoring process, we observe external phenomena such as page movement and mouse movement path, and identify cognitive activities such as Think-Aloud technique. Results - In the total of three research subjects, the two courses showed excess learning time compared to the learning time, and one course showed less learning time than the learning time. This gives the following implications for content development. First, it is necessary to consider the importance of selecting the target and contents level according to the level of the subject. Second, it is necessary to design the learner participation activity that meets the learning goal level and to calculate the appropriate time accordingly. Third, it is necessary to design appropriate learning support strategy according to the learning task. This should be considered in designing lessons. Fourth, it is necessary to revitalize contents design centered on learning activities such as simulation. Conclusions - The implications of the examination system are as follows. First, it can be confirmed that there is difficulty in calculating the amount of learning centered on learning time and securing objective objectivity. Second, it can be seen that there are various variables affecting the actual learning time in addition to the content amount. Third, there is a need for reviewing the system of examination of learning amount centered on 'learning time'.

Blank Design of SPFH 590 Steel Sheet for Stamping of Center Hinge of Automotive via Analysis of Transfer Forming Process with Multi-Stages (다단 이송 성형 공정 해석을 통한 자동차 센터 힌지 성형용 SPFH 590 고강도 강판 블랭크 설계)

  • Ahn, Dong-Gyu;Song, Dong-Han;Sohn, Sang-Sik;Han, Gil-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this paper is to design the blank shape of SPFH 590 high strength steel for stamping of the center hinge of automotive via numerical analyses and experiments for multi-stages transfer forming process. Three-dimensional elasto-plastic finite element analyses for the transfer forming process with six stages were performed using a commercial code AUTOFORM V4.2. The influence of the blank shape on the formability and the shape conformity were quantitatively examined through the FE analyses. From the results of the FE analysis, a feasible shape of the blank and the forming load were estimated. Stamping experiments were carried out using the proposed blank shape. The results of experiments were shown that the center hinge parts with the desired shapes can be manufactured successfully as the proposed blank shape is used. Through the comparison of the results of the experiments with those of the analyses, it was shown that the estimation of blank shape using the FE analysis is a proper methodology to create a feasible shape of the blank for the center hinge of automotive.

Estimation of Uncertainty on Greenhouse Gas Emission in the Agriculture Sector (농업분야 온실가스 배출량 산정의 불확도 추정 및 평가)

  • Bae, Yeon-Joung;Bae, Seung-Jong;Seo, Il-Hwan;Seo, Kyo;Lee, Jeong-Jae;Kim, Gun-Yeob
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2013
  • Analysis and evaluation of uncertainty is adopting the advanced methodology among the methods for greenhouse gas emission assessment that was defined in GPS2000 (Good practice guideline 2000) and GPG-LULUCF (GPG Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). In 2006 IPCC guideline, two approaches are suggested to explain the uncertainty for each section with a national net emission and a prediction value on uncertainty as follows; 1) Spread sheet calculation based on the error propagation algorithm that was simplified with some assumptions, and 2) Monte carlo simulation that can be utilized in general purposes. There are few researches on the agricultural field including greenhouse gas emission that is generated from livestock and cultivation lands due to lack of information for statistic data, emission coefficient, and complicated emission formula. The main objective of this study is to suggest an evaluation method for the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission in agricultural field by means of intercomparison of the prediction value on uncertainties which were estimated by spread sheet calculation and monte carlo simulation. A statistic analysis for probability density function for uncertainty of emission rate was carried out by targeting livestock intestinal fermentation, excrements treatment, and direct/indirect emission from agricultural lands and rice cultivation. It was suggested to minimize uncertainty by means of extraction of emission coefficient according to each targeting section.