• 제목/요약/키워드: Estimation Methodology

검색결과 1,049건 처리시간 0.029초

Seismic risk investigation for reinforced concrete buildings in Antalya, Turkey

  • Kepenek, Engin;Korkmaz, Kasim A.;Gencel, Ziya
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2020
  • Turkey is located in one of the most seismically active regions of in Europe. The majority of the population living in big cities are at high seismic risk due to insufficient structural resistance of the existing buildings. Such a seismic risk brings the need for a comprehensive seismic evaluation based on the risk analysis in Turkey. Determining the seismic resistance level of existing building stock against the earthquakes is the first step to reduce the damages in a possible earthquake. Recently in January 2020, the Elazig earthquake brought the importance of the issue again in the public. However, the excessive amount of building stock, labor, and resource problems made the implementation phase almost impossible and revealed the necessity to carry out alternative studies on this issue. This study aims for a detailed investigation of residential buildings in Antalya, Turkey. The approach proposed here can be considered an improved state of building survey methods previously identified in Turkey's Design Code. Antalya, Turkey's fifth most populous city, with a population over 2.5 Million, was investigated as divided into sub-regions to understand the vulnerability, and a threshold value found for the study area. In this study, 26,610 reinforced concrete buildings between 1 to 7 stories in Antalya were examined by using the rapid visual assessment method. A specific threshold value for the city of Antalya was determined with the second level examination and statistical methods carried out in the determined sub-region. With the micro zonation process, regions below the threshold value are defined as the priority areas that need to be examined in detail. The developed methodology can be easily calibrated for application in other cities and can be used to determine new threshold values for those cities.

금융시장발전과 공적개발원조의 효과성: 양자간·다자간 원조를 중심으로 (Recipient Countries' Financial Development and the Effectiveness of ODA)

  • 안현미;박단비
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of Offcial Development Assistance (ODA) in recipient countries' economy. ODA is designed to mitigate poverty and stimulate economic growth in the developing countries. We classify total ODA into bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA depending on the number of donor countries. If the ODA flows from one donor country to one recipient country, it is classified as bilateral ODA. If the multiple countries simultaneously become donor countries through the international organizations such as United Nations and World Bank, it is classified as multilateral ODA. This paper compares the effect of bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA in determining recipient countries' economic development, and tries to provide policy implications to Korean ODA. Research design, data, and methodology - Our primary explanatory variables are bilateral and multilateral ODA. Private credit in recipient countries is adopted as additional explanatory variables to capture the level of financial development in recipient countries. We measure the ODA effectiveness using economic growth and quality of life of the recipient countries as the dependent variable. We collect 142 recipient countries' data from OECD statistics, during the period from 1970-2014. Panel least squares estimation with country fixed effect is employed as the empirical model. Results - Our results support that ODA variable has a negatively significant impact on recipient countries' economic growth, while it is positively correlated with human development index. Recipient countries' private credit is positively correlated with economic growth and human development index. The interaction variable of ODA and financial development turns out to be significant in general. We find that the positive effect of ODA depends on recipient countries' financial market development and this effect is stronger in multilateral aid than bilateral one. Conclusions - From the analysis, we have confirmed that the recipient countries financial development is the necessity condition to achieve positive effect of ODA. Based on these results, we suggest that Korean government should increase the share of multilateral funding and pay attention to recipient countries' financial market development to maximize the effectiveness of ODA.

TBM 굴진성능 예측모델 분석: 리뷰 (Analysis on prediction models of TBM performance: A review)

  • 이항로;송기일;조계춘
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.245-256
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    • 2016
  • TBM을 적용하는 현장에서 장비 선택, 공사기간 및 공사비용의 합리적인 산정을 위하여 TBM의 굴진성능을 정확하게 예측하는 것은 매우 중요한 사안이다. 본 연구에서는 최신 자료들을 바탕으로 기존의 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델들의 평가과정과 방법론에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 2000년 이후에 발표된 문헌들에 대한 조사를 토대로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 분류체계를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 분류체계에서는 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델에 필요한 입력인자 선정단계와 예측기법 적용단계로 크게 구분하였다. 또한 각 예측모델에서 사용된 입력인자, 출력인자 그리고 예측모델에서 사용된 인자의 적용빈도를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 현황과 향후 연구방향에 대하여 제언하였다.

차량주행주기를 감안한 환경오염물질 산정 및 적용 - 타당성 평가 적용을 중심으로 - (Application and Estimation of Environment Pollutant Emission Considering Vehicle Driving Cycle - Focusing on Feasibility Study -)

  • 정성봉
    • 대한환경공학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.223-230
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    • 2011
  • EMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook에 의하면 자동차 주행에 따른 총 대기오염물질 배출량을 Hot Start와 Cold Start로 구분해 산출하도록 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 자동차 주행주기 특성을 감안하여 교통사업의 타당성 분석 시환경비용절감 편익의 현실적인 산정방안에 대해 검토하였다. 이를 위해 교통수요 분석모형(EMME/3)을 이용하여 분석영향권내 모든 링크단위의 교통량과 통행속도 자료를 활용하는 Tier 3 방식으로 환경오염 물질을 선출하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 방법론의 적용성 검토를 위해 현재 계획중인 철도 투자평가사업에 적용하였으며, 적용결과 환경부문의 편익이 기존 대비 약 30% 정도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 향후 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론이 투자평가과정에서 적용된다면 철도와 같은 친환경 교통수단의 투자활성화에 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

컨조인트 분석을 통한 디지털 음악콘텐츠 서비스의 소비 속성별 가치 추정 (Consumption Attribute Value Estimation of Digital Music Contents Service by Conjoint Analysis)

  • 신동명;김보영
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.924-934
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    • 2014
  • 지난 10년 동안 디지털 음악콘텐츠 시장은 급속도로 확산되고 있으나 다양한 음원 상품과 서비스 상품에 대한 소비자 사용 및 소비에 영향을 미치는 음악콘텐츠 상품의 가치 요인들을 고려한 상품 구성과 가격 정책에 대한 자료는 미비한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 현재 국내에서 이루어지는 스트리밍과 다운로드 방식의 디지털 음악콘텐츠 서비스 상품을 중심으로 소비자의 서비스 상품 선택에 영향을 미치는 속성으로 장르, 가격, 음질, 이용기기를 정의하고, 헤도닉 가격모형이론과 컨조인트 분석방법을 통해 소비자가 지각하고 있는 속성 요인별 중요도와 부분 가치를 추정하여 디지털 음악콘텐츠 서비스에 대한 소비자 중심의 시장가격과 상품 구성에 대한 전략적 시사점을 제시하고자 했다. 이를 위해 국내 디지털 음악콘텐츠 서비스 사용자 405명의 설문조사를 실시하였으며, 분석 결과 다운로드 방식에서는 '음질' 속성이 스트리밍 방식에서는 '이용기기' 속성이 '가격' 속성보다 중요하게 나타났다. 결론적으로 디지털 음악콘텐츠 서비스 상품 구성 및 가격 책정의 경우 생산자 중심의 가치에 대한 고려를 넘어 소비자 중심의 시장과 소비 속성을 고려한 차별화가 이루어질 수 있어야 함을 살펴볼 수 있었다.

Evidence-based estimation of health care cost savings from the use of omega-3 supplementation among the elderly in Korea

  • Hwang, Ji-Yun;Kim, Wu Seon;Jeong, Sewon;Kwon, Oran
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.400-403
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: By the year 2050, thirty-eight percent of the Korean population will be over the age of 65. Health care costs for Koreans over age 65 reached 15.4 trillion Korean won in 2011, accounting for a third of the total health care costs for the population. Chronic degenerative diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD), drive long-term health care costs at an alarming annual rate. In the elderly population, loss of independence is one of the main reasons for this increase in health care costs. Korean heath policies place a high priority on the prevention of CHD because it is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This evidence-based study aims to the estimate potential health care cost savings resulting from the daily intake of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation. Potential cost savings associated with a reduced risk of CHD and the medical costs potentially avoided through risk reduction, including hospitalizations and physician services, were estimated using a Congressional Budget Office cost accounting methodology. RESULTS: The estimate of the seven-year (2005-2011) net savings in medical costs resulting from a reduction in the incidence of CHD among the elderly population through the daily use of omega-3 fatty acids was approximately 210 billion Korean won. Approximately 92,997 hospitalizations due to CHD could be avoided over the seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that omega-3 supplementation in older individuals may yield substantial cost-savings by reducing the risk of CHD. It should be noted that additional health and cost benefits need to be revisited and re-evaluated as more is known about possible data sources or as new data become available.

국내 주유소 시장의 휘발유 가격경쟁 분석: 공간 효과를 중심으로 (Price Competition in Korean Retail Gasoline Market: Focusing on Spatial Effects)

  • 김형건
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study conducts an empirical analysis on gasoline pricing of Korean retail gas stations focusing on spatial effects. Unlike previous studies, the study uses an official land price for a proxy of the importance of location, and also allows the spatial effects from other competing gas stations as well. Research design, data, and methodology - In collection of data, we obtain more abundant data than those of previous studies. The gasoline prices used in the study are 909,084 observations as daily data from January 1 to July 31 of the year 2016. A proxy for the land price is collected by linking official public land price data with address information on each gas station. For the estimation, the study employs the Panel Spatial Dubin Model to make the best use of the collected location information. Results - As expected, spatial properties of gas stations have significant effects on the gasoline price. As the price per square meter increases by 100 thousands won, the price of gasoline rises 9 won per liter. Among other characteristics, the price increases by 16 won per liter if the station has a convenience store, and about 5 won if it has a car wash service. Gasoline price in Singapore accounted for 26% of variations in domestic gasoline prices. SK Energy and GS Caltex are the top brands in terms of price. The study also finds prices and other important properties of competing gas stations have significant effects on others' prices. Prices of competing gas station have a positive relationship with those of others. If a competing gas station raises the price, the gas station also raises the price, and lowering the price lower the price. Among brands, GS Caltex has the greatest downward pressure on nearby gas stations. Conclusions - The study confirms that location value of gas stations affect their gasoline prices, and the prices of the competing gas stations also have a significant effects on their prices. It suggests that the prices in the competing retail areas tend to be synchronized with each other.

외환위기 이후 기업의 교육훈련활동과 연구개발활동의 생산성 효과: 교육훈련스톡 추계치를 이용한 분석 (Productivity Effect by Activities in Education & Training and Research & Development after Financial Crisis: An Analysis using the Estimate of E&T Stock)

  • 반가운
    • 노동경제논집
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.33-69
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 기업수준에서 교육훈련스톡, 연구개발스톡, 특허출원스톡 추계를 통하여 교육훈련활동과 연구개발활동의 생산성 효과에 대하여 분석한다. 특히 교육훈련투자를 스톡으로 구축하여 추정에 이용함으로써 숙련의 자산성을 분석에 반영하였다. 교육훈련투자의 파급효과 분석시 기술적 근접도를 이용한 것과 동적패널 분석을 이용하여 장단기 효과를 구분한 것 역시 방법론상의 새로운 시도이다. 분석 결과, 교육훈련투자의 생산성 효과는 연구개발투자에 비해 상대적으로 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 교육훈련활동과 연구개발 활동은 자체효과뿐만 아니라 파급효과와 장기효과를 통해 기업의 생산성에 큰 영향을 미친다.

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한국의 교통계정 개발과 적용에 관한 연구 - 도로교통과 철도교통을 중심으로 - (A Study on the Development and Application of the Transport Accounts in Korea)

  • 김한영;이원영
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.996-1010
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문은 우리 실정에 맞고 국제비교에도 활용할 수 있는 국가차원의 교통계정 기본틀을 제시하였다. 기본틀은 비용 수입항목과 산정 방법론으로 구성되어 있다. 그리고 제시된 우리나라의 교통계정을 적용해본 결과, 국내총생산 대비 도로교통의 총비용은 유럽보다 3.23% 높은 것으로 나타났고 철도교통의 총비용은 유럽보다 0.67% 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 도로교통과 철도교통의 단위당 비용을 비교한 결과, 여객의 인-km당 도로교통 비용이 철도교통 비용의 약 4.8배, 화물의 톤-km당 도로교통 비용은 철도교통 비용의 약 2.4배로 나타났다.

FUNDAMENTAL UNDERSTANDING OF CRACKING AND BULGING IN COKE DRUMS

  • Penso, Jorge;Tsai, Chon
    • 대한용접접합학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한용접접합학회 2002년도 Proceedings of the International Welding/Joining Conference-Korea
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    • pp.675-680
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    • 2002
  • Cracking and bulging in welded and internally lined pressure vessels that work in thermal-mechanical cycling service have been well known problems in the petrochemical, power and nuclear industries. However, published literature and industry surveys show that similar problems have been occurring during the last 50 years. A better understanding of the causes of cracking and bulging causes is needed to improve the reliability of these pressure vessels. This study attempts to add information required for increasing the knowledge and fundamental understanding required. Typical examples of this problem are the coke drums in the delayed coking units refinery process. This case was selected for experimental work, field study and results comparison. Delayed coking units are among the refinery units that have higher economical yields. To shut down these units represents a high negative economical impact in refinery operations. Also, the maintenance costs associated with repairs are commonly very high. Cracking and bulging occurrences in the coke drums, most often at the weld areas, characterize the history of the operation of delayed coking units. To design and operate more robust coke drums with fewer problems, an improved metallurgical understanding of the cracking and bulging mechanisms is required. A methodology that is based field experience revision and metallurgical analyses for the screening of the most important variables, and subsequent finite element analyses to verify hypotheses and to rank the variables according to their impact on the coke drum lives has been developed. This indicated approach provides useful information for increasing coke drum reliability. The results of this work not only order the most important variables according to their impact in the life of the vessels, but also permit estimation of the life spans of coke drums. In conclusion, the current work shows that coke drums may fail as a combination of thermal fatigue and other degradation mechanisms such as: corrosion at high and low temperatures, detrimental metallurgical transformations and plastic deformation. It was also found that FEA is a very valuable tool for understanding cracking and bulging mechanisms in these services and for ranking the design, fabrication, operation and maintenance variables that affect coke drum reliability.

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