• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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A Case Study for the Determination of Time Distribution of Frequency Based Rainfall (확률강우의 적정시간분포 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jeong Ki;Kim, Hung Soo;Kang, In Joo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2004
  • In recent, the heavy rainfall is frequently occurred and the damage tends to be increased. So, more careful hydrologic analysis is required for the designs of the hydraulic or disaster prevention structures. The time distribution of a rainfall is one of the important factors for the estimation of peak flow in hydrologic and hydraulic designs. This study is to suggest a methodology for the estimation of a rainfall time distribution which can reflect the meteorologic and topographical characteristics of Daejeon area. We collect the 34 years' rainfall data recorded in the range of 1969 to 2002 for Daejeon area and we performed the rainfall analysis with the data in between May and October of each year. According to the Huff method, the collected data corresponds to the first quartile which the rainfall is concentrated in the primary stage but the suggested method shows the different rainfall distribution with the Huff method in time. The reason is that the Huff method determines the quartile in each storm event while the suggested one determines it by estimating the dimensionless distribution of rainfall in duration after the accumulation of rainfall in time. The rainfall distributions estimated by two methodologies were applied to the Gabcheon basin in Daejeon area for the estimation of flood flow. Here we use the SCS method for the effective rainfall and unit hydrograph for the flood discharge. As the results, the peak flow for 24-hour of 100-year frequency was estimated as a $3421.20m^3/sec$ by the Huff method and $3493.38m^3/sec$ by the suggested one. We can see the difference of $72.18m^3/sec$ in between two methods and thus we may carefully determine the rainfall time distribution and compute the effective rainfall for the estimation of the peak flow.

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Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Method for Generic Structures (일반 구조물에 대한 신속한 지진 취약성 분석 방법)

  • Jeong, Seong-Hoon;Choi, Sung-Mo;Kim, Kang-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2008
  • Analytical probabilistic vulnerability analysis requires extensive computing effort as a result of the randomness in both input motion and response characteristics. In this study, a new methodology whereby a set of vulnerability curves are derived based on the fundamental response quantities of stiffness, strength and ductility is presented. A response database of coefficients describing lognormal vulnerability relationships is constructed by employing aclosed-form solution for a generalized single-degree-of-freedom system. Once the three fundamental quantities of a wide range of structural systems are defined, the vulnerability curves for various limit states can be derived without recourse to further simulation. Examples of application are given and demonstrate the extreme efficiency of the proposed approach in deriving vulnerability relationships.

Performance Prediction of Landing Gear Considering Uncertain Operating Parameters (운용 파라미터의 불확실성을 고려한 착륙장치 완충성능 해석)

  • Kim, Tae Uk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.921-927
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    • 2013
  • The performance estimation of a landing gear with uncertain parameters is presented. In actual use, many parameters can have certain degrees of variations that affect the energy absorbing performance. For example, the shock strut gas pressure, oil volume, tire pressure, and temperature can deviate from their nominal values. The objective function in this study is the ground reaction during touchdown, which is a function of the abovementioned parameters and time. To consider the uncertain properties, convex modeling and interval analysis are used to calculatethe objective function. The numerical results show that the ground reaction characteristics are quite different from those of the deterministic method. The peak load, which affects the efficiency and structural integrity, is increases considerably when the uncertainties are considered. Therefore, it is important to consider the uncertainties, and the proposed methodology can serve as an efficient method to estimate the effect of such uncertainties.

Optimization of TIME-OF-DAY and Estimation on the Field Application for Arterial Road (간선도로 교차로의 TOD 시간계획 최적화 및 현장적용 평가)

  • Lee, In-Gyu;Lee, Ho-Sang;Kim, Yeong-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2011
  • Traffic signal control is one of the most cost-effective means of improving urban mobility. With the recent progress of ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) and the installation of the real time traffic control systems, traffic signal control is conducted in online and real time. Normally, time-of-day (TOD) signal control is used with the system, but no definite methodology has yet been available for efficient TOD signal planing designing. Such method and process are in need to optimize the traffic signal timing plan. This paper proposes the optimization of TOD signal timings on arterials. The effects of the signal timings from the proposed method were assessed in the field. The proposed includes the methods determining the separation of the TOD break points and the TOD intervals. Those were tested on an arterial consisting of ten coordinated signalized intersections. It was found from the test results that the proposed TOD signal timing plans outperformed the previous signal timings.

The effect of interaction between internationalization and strategic pursuance on the use of foreign currency denominated debt: in the context of Korean MNEs

  • Kim, Soonsung;Chung, Jaiho;Cho, Myeong-Hyeon
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study investigates the effect of MNEs' characteristics on the use of foreign currency denominated debt in the context of Korean firms. This study examines the relationship between MNEs and the use of foreign debt focusing on the accessibility to the capital market in addition to the motive of hedging against foreign exchange exposure. Research design and methodology - Probit estimation is employed for estimating significant factors in determination of the use of foreign debt by firms. The dependent variable is a dummy variable to indicate whether a firm uses foreign debt or not at the end of 2004. Independent variables include foreign subsidiaries ratio, export to sale, R&D expenditure to sale, and credit rating. Results - The results show that the interaction between the level of internationalization represented by intra-regional diversification and the strategic characteristics embedded in the region of entry affects the use of foreign debt. In case of a high level of diversification within the developing region with a strong pursuit of asset exploitation, MNEs are more likely to use foreign debt, whereas a high level of diversification within the developed region with a strong pursuit of asset seeking, MNEs are less likely to use foreign debt. Conclusions - The differences between MNEs in terms of intra-regional diversification, strategic orientation, and the accessibility to capital markets as well as the hedging motive affect the use of foreign debt.

Improvement in Safety Evaluation of Structures using the Bayesian Updating Approach (베이스 경신법을 활용한 구조물 안전성평가 개선)

  • Park, Kidong;Lee, Sangbok;Kim, Junki;Rha, Changsoon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2016
  • The classical statistical approach using test data samples to estimate true value of Random Variables by calculating mean and variation (standard deviation or coefficient of variation) of samples is very useful to understand the existing condition of the structure. But with this classical approach, our prior knowledge through educational background and professional experience cannot provide any benefit to make decisions by the structural engineers. This paper shows the role of Bayesian methodology by providing chance of using valuable prior knowledge to come up with more accurate estimation of structural condition. This paper also shows how important it is to have a proper prior estimate of Random Variables and corresponding confidence level through gathering and studying more relevant information.

An Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Parallel Reimportation: The Case of Korean Automobile Market (재병행수입의 경제적 효과 분석: 자동차산업을 중심으로)

  • Chang, Woo Hyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2014
  • This paper examines the possibility of 'parallel reimportation', the reimportation of goods originally produced in the country and exported to another country by profit-pursuing arbitrageurs. The chance of parallel reimportation implies unusually high level of market power of domestic enterprises, and promoting parallel reimportation can be an effective welfare-enhancing, competition-generating policy for the situation. Motivated by the finding, this paper proposes a methodology to measure the welfare effects of parallel reimportation. Specifically, this paper makes use of a structural empirical model to estimate the demand and supply system of Korean automobile market for performing a counterfactual experiment to measure the welfare effects of the parallel reimportation. The results indicates that parallel reimportation can enhance social welfare considerably by increasing consumer surplus and government tax revenue altogether, though it reduces the producer surplus.

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Application of Target Reliability Levels for Maintenance of Domestic Natural Gas Pipelines (국내 천연가스배관 유지관리를 위한 목표신뢰도 적용사례)

  • Lee, Jin-Han;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jo, Young-Do;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2018
  • Reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. Reliability targets are used to ensure that safety levels are met relevant limit states in the stage of design and maintenance. The target reliability for ultimate limit states such as large leak and rupture were developed using tolerable risk criteria for individual and societal risk. This paper shows the reliability target can be met through the implementation of periodic maintenance measures during the life cycle of the pipelines. The case study involves the calculation of the failure probability due to equipment impact, the calculation of the failure probability due to corrosion, and the estimation the re-inspection interval for domestic natural gas transmission pipelines.

A Study on the Estimation of BVOCs Emission in Jeju Island (2): Emission Characteristic and Situation (제주지역 BVOCs의 배출량 산정에 관한 연구(2): 배출량 특성 및 실태)

  • Lee, Ki-Ho;Kim, Hyeong-Cheol;Hu, Chul-Goo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.207-219
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to show the geographical distribution and the temporal variation of the emission amount of biogenic volatile organic compounds(BVOCs) emanated from forests at Jeju Island. The total emission amount of BVOCs calculated by using the CORINAIR Methodology is $3612ton\;yr^{-1}$ at Jeju Island. More than half of BVOCs emissions is come from coniferous forest, and 45 per cent from broad leaved forest. The others is attributed to grassland. Of total emission of BVOCs, isoprene accounts for 28 per cent, monoterpene for 32 per cent, and other VOCs for about 40 percent, respectively. It can be shown that $3000{\sim}10000kg\;yr^{-1}$ of BVOCs is emitted at the zone with dense forest from an altitude of 500 m to the top of Mt. Halla, and less than $1500kg\;yr^{-1}$ at the zone an altitude of below 500 meters. The monoterpene emission is more than $1500kg\;yr^{-1}$ due to the existence of a colony of Abies koreana at the place with more than 1500 meters and a community of Pinus thunbergii and Cryptomeria japonica at the elevation of 500~700 m. In the case of isoprene emission, there is $1500{\sim}3000kg\;yr^{-1}$ at the zone of an elevation from 700 m to 1500 m due to dense broad leaved forest and very little of its emission at an elevation of more than 1500 meters because there is hardly broad leaved trees grown. In this study, emission of BVOCs according to the altitude above sea level is estimated under the situation of lack of the data for broad leaved tree. More detailed data and information for the distribution of broad leaved trees are needed in order to calculate more realistic BVOC emission.

THE EFFECT OF SURFACE ROUGHNESS OF CSI(TL) MICRO-COLUMNS ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE X-RAY IMAGE; OPTICAL SIMULATION STUDY

  • Kim, Hyun-Ki;Bae, Jun-Hyung;Cha, Bo-Kyung;Jeon, Ho-Sang;Kim, Jong-Yul;Kim, Chan-Kyu;Cho, Gyu-Seong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2009
  • Micro-columnar CsI(Tl) is the most popular scintillator material which is used for many indirect digital X-ray imaging detectors. The light scattering at the surface of micro-columnar CsI(Tl) scintillator was studied to find the correlation between the surface roughness and the resultant image resolution of indirect X-ray imaging detectors. Using a commercially available optical simulation program, Light Tools, MTF (Modulation Transfer Function) curves of the CsI(Tl) film thermally evaporated on glass substrate with different thickness were calculated and compared with the experimental estimation of MTF values by the edge X-ray image method and CCD camera. It was found that the standard deviation value of Gaussian scattering model which is determined by the surface roughness of micro-columns could certainly change the MTF value of image sensors. This model and calculation methodology will be beneficial to estimate the overall performance of indirect X-ray imaging system with CsI(Tl) scintillator film for optimum design depending on its application.