• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제12권3호
• /
• pp.244-253
• /
• 2013

In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.25-39
• /
• 1989

Cyclic temperature creep tests were carried out an AS 7075 alloy specimens were subjected to a constant load and stepwise temperature cycles in which temperature was fluctuated between 30$0^{\circ}C$ and 25$0^{\circ}C$ with three different cycle ratios. The highest frequency of cycling was 1 cycle per 10 hr and the lowest one was 1 cycle per 12 hr. From the creep experimental results with the above conditions the creep strain under cyclic temperature can be predicted easily by introd ucing the equivalent steady temperature because defined by Eq.(16), but the rupture life is 1.1 time than those of constant temperature because of effect of temperature history at tertiary creep range. Besides thlis result, the results of the creep test under cyclic temperature conditions are respectively compayiea with calculated rupture lives using the life fraction law and Eq.(18). The agreement between the obseried rupture times and calculated ones is fairly good. So creep rupture lives can be respectively predicted using life fraction law and Eq.(18).

• 대한기계학회논문집
• /
• 제16권8호
• /
• pp.1429-1437
• /
• 1992

본 연구에서는 이완형 물성방정식을 바탕으로 하며 프와송 비가 일정하다는 가정을 하지 않는다. 또한 점탄성 지배방정식에 변분원리를 적용하고 유도되어진 식 에 유한요소해법을 사용하여 시스템 기본해석을 위한 연립방정식을 유도한다. 이와 함께 점탄성 물성함수의 유도 및 응력계산을 위한 공식화 과정도 설명한다. 제시된 방법론의 타당성 및 정확성을 보이기 위해서 평면응력 및 평면변형 문제의 변위 및 응력을 수치해석하여 이론해와 비교 검토하며, 아울러 시간증분의 변화와 Gauss poi- nts수가 수치정확도에 끼치는 영향을 조사한다.

• 지구물리와물리탐사
• /
• 제17권4호
• /
• pp.247-252
• /
• 2014

가곡광산은 스카른형 광상으로서 섬아연석, 방연석, 황동석, 자류철석 등의 황화광물을 수반한다. 이러한 광물은 전극분극에 의한 IP effect가 크기 때문에 광대역유도분극(spectral induced polarization; SIP)법을 이용하여 효과적으로 탐사할 수 있다. 따라서 이 연구는 황화광물 함량 및 입자의 크기를 지시하는 충전도와 시간상수를 실내 SIP 측정을 통하여 구하고 이로부터 가곡광산 내 두 광체에 대한 광화작용 차이를 비교하는데 목적을 두었다. 이를 위해 남쪽의 월곡광체와 북쪽의 선곡광체를 대상으로 시료를 채취하였다. 시료의 광화작용 특성을 파악하기 위해 휴대용 XRF 측정기를 이용하여 금속의 함량을 측정했고, 실내 암석 SIP 측정시스템을 이용하여 SIP 자료를 획득했다. XRF 측정결과 가곡광산 광체는 철, 아연, 납, 구리 등의 금속을 수반하고 있다. 특히 아연과 철의 함량이 다른 금속과 비교하여 매우 높았고, 이 두 금속은 현미경 관찰을 통하여 섬아연석과 자류철석에 의한 영향으로 판단하였다. SIP 등가회로 분석 결과, 월곡광체가 선곡광체에 비하여 금속의 함량이 더 높았기 때문에 황화광물을 더 많이 수반하는 것으로 판단했고, 이는 SIP에서 충전도의 결과와 잘 부합한다. 반면 선곡광체의 시간상수가 더 컸기 때문에 선곡광체가 월곡광체보다 황화광물 입자 크기가 더 큰 것으로 판단했다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
• /
• 제25권9B호
• /
• pp.1527-1533
• /
• 2000

MIS(도체-부도체-반도체) 구조로된 전송선로를 해석하기 위하여 기본적으로 특성임피던스와 전파상수의 추출에 기초한 일반적인 특성화 절차가 사용된다. 본논문에서는 Si와 Si02층 사이에 0전위를 가진 도체를 일정한 간격의 주기적인 배열로 고안된 새로운 모델의 MIS구조에 대한 유한차분법을 이용한 해석방법을 제안한다. 특히 전송선로에 대한 유전체의 영향을 줄이기 위하여 0전위를 가진 주기적인 결합의 도체로 이루어진 구조가 시간영역의 신호를 통해 시험된다. Quality factor 뿐만아니라 주파수 의존적인 추출된 전송선로 파라미터와 등가회로 파라미터가 주파수 및 0전위 도체 간격의 함수로서 나타내진다. 특히 전송선로의 Quality factor가 특성임피던스 및 유효유전 상수의 큰 변화없이 개선될수 있음을 볼 수 있다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제13권6호
• /
• pp.501-519
• /
• 2012

As an alternative to current conventional force-based assessment methods, the energy-based seismic performance of a code-designed 20-storey high-rise steel building is evaluated in this paper. Using 3D nonlinear dynamic time-history method with consideration of additional material damping effect, the influences of different restoring force models and P-${\Delta}/{\delta}$ effects on energy components are investigated. By combining equivalent viscous damping and hysteretic damping ratios of the structure subjected to strong ground motions, a new damping model, which is amplitude-dependent, is discussed in detail. According to the analytical results, all energy components are affected to various extents by P-${\Delta}/{\delta}$ effects and a difference of less than 10% is observed; the energy values of the structure without consideration of P-${\Delta}/{\delta}$ effects are larger, while the restoring force models have a minor effect on seismic input energy with a difference of less than 5%, but they have a certain effect on both viscous damping energy and hysteretic energy with a difference of about 5~15%. The paper shows that the use of the hysteretic energy at its ultimate state as a seismic design parameter has more advantages than seismic input energy since it presents a more stable value. The total damping ratio of a structure consists of viscous damping ratio and hysteretic damping ratio and it is found that the equivalent viscous damping ratio is a constant for the structure, while the equivalent hysteretic damping ratio approximately increases linearly with structural response in elasto-plastic stage.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 2004년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.111-118
• /
• 2004

For the precise analysis of high velocity impact problem though FEM with element erosive method, the adequate mesh size and critical equivalent plastic strain(EQPS) is chosen prior to the simulation. In this research, it is strongly required from a standpoint that critical EQPS is used to decide whether perforation occurs or not. The optimization of dual armor plate consisting of 4340 steel and 2024 aluminium against a die steel sphere with high-velocity has been suggested using Lagrangian explicit time-integration code, NET2D. The response surface method based on the design of experiment is utilized for the size optimization. The optimized thickness of each layer, in which perforation does not occur, the strength of multi-layer is maximized and total weight is minimized, is obtained at a constant velocity of a pellet with a designated total thickness.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제56권6호
• /
• pp.1087-1091
• /
• 2007

Exact impedance modeling of the electrode/electrolyte interface is important in bio-signal sensing electrode development. Therefore, the investigation of the equivalent circuit models for the interface has been pursued for a long time by several researchers. Previous circuit models fit the experimental results in limited conditions such as frequency range, type of electrode, or electrolyte. This paper describes a new electrical circuit model and its capability of fitting the experimental results. The proposed model consists of three resistors and two constant phase elements. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was used to characterize the interface for Au, Pt, and stainless steel electrode in 0.9% NaCl solution. Both the proposed model and the previous model were applied to fit the measured impedance results for comparison. The proposed model fits the experimental data more accurately than other models especially at the low frequency range, and it enables us to predict the impedance at very low frequency range, including DC, using the proposed model.

• 수산해양기술연구
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.435-447
• /
• 1999

It is main objective of this approach to present a method to analyse stochastic design sensitivity for problems of structural dynamics with randomness in design parameters. A combination of the adjoint variable approach and the second order perturbation method is used in the finite element approach. An alternative form of the constant functional that holds for all times is introduced to consider the time response of dynamic sensitivity. The terminal problem of the adjoint system is solved using equivalent homogeneous equations excited by initial velocities. The numerical procedures are shown to be much more efficient when based on the fold superposition method: the generalized co-ordinates are normalized and the correlated random variables are transformed to uncorrelated variables, whereas the secularities are eliminated by the fast Fourier transform of complex valued sequences. Numerical algorithms have been worked out and proved to be accurate and efficient : they can be readily adapted to fit into the existing finite element codes whose element derivative matrices can be explicitly generated. The numerical results of two cases -2 dimensional portal frame for the comparison with reference and 3-dimensional frame structure - for the deterministic sensitivity analysis are presented.

• 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
• /
• pp.353-360
• /
• 2000

A design of PIDA(Proportional-Integral-Derivative-Acceleration) controller for the third-order plant using the CDM(Coefficient Diagram Method) is presented. Using CDM, the closed-loop system with the designed PIDA controller can be made stable and satisfied both the transient and steady state response specifications without any adjustment. The effect of output step disturbance can also be lastly rejected. The fast step response of the controlled system can be achieved by reducing the equivalent time constant. The MATLABs simulation results show that the performances of the designed controlled system using CDM is better than the performance of the controlled system using PIDA controller designed by its own technique.