• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.173-216
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• 2001

We compare impacts of different $CO_2$ abatement mechanisms using a CGE model. Focus is on the way the tradable permits are initially distributed for emissions trading, namely auction and grandfathering. For three major energy consuming industries (basic chemical, iron & steel and electricity) in Korea, emissions trading is clearly superior to individual $CO_2$ abatement, but auction and grandfathering show somewhat different patterns of impact. We show that depending on how the government uses the revenue from permit auction, auction may be preferable to grandfathering.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.301-319
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• 2012

2012년부터 RPS 제도가 시행됨에 따라 신재생에너지 분야에서의 투자가 활발히 이루어질 것으로 예상된다. 신재생에너지를 통한 기업의 온실가스 감축투자는 장기적으로 기술진보와 국내 전력가격에도 영향을 미치는 중요한 요소이다. 한편, 국내에 온실가스 감축정책 수단으로 배출권거래제가 논의 중인 바, 유사한 성격의 두 제도가 기업의 환경투자 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 분석하도록 한다. 투자의 비가역성과 배출권 및 REC 가격의 불확실성을 고려하는 실물옵션 모형을 이용하여, 게이트웨이의 설정을 통한 배출권과 REC의 호환성이 보장될 때에 투자 인센티브를 분석하였다. 환경투자를 통해 온실가스 감축이 충분히 클 경우에는 투자에 대한 게이트웨이의 긍정적인 효과가 확인되는 것으로 나타났다. 신재생에너지 투자효과에 대한 보다 엄밀한 분석을 위하여 향후 발전사 데이터의 구축을 통해 실증분석이 추가로 이루어져야 할 것이다.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.169-178
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• 2019

현재 인공지능의 한 영역인 머신러닝을 적용하여 다양한 예측을 수행하고 있으나 실제 현장에서 어떤 종류의 알고리즘을 사용하는 것이 가장 좋은 방법인지는 늘 문제가 된다. 본 논문은 여러 머신러닝 지도 학습 알고리즘을 이용하여 월별 전력 거래량, 전력 거래금액, 월별 생산 확산 지수, 최종 에너지 소비, 자동차용 경유를 예측하여 각 경우에 어떤 알고리즘이 가장 적합한 알고리즘인지를 알아본다. 이를 위해 통계청에 나와 있는 월별 전력 거래량과 월별 전력 거래금액, 월별 생산 확산 지수, 최종에너지 소비, 자동차용 경유로 머신 러닝이 예측하는 값의 확률을 보여주고 각각의 예측 값을 평균화 하여 이들 중에서 어떤 기법이 가장 우수한 기법인지를 확인한다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.107-110
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• 2013

Recently, Korea parliament legislated the Low Carbon Green Growth Act (April, 2012) and approved a bill (May, 2012) to start carbon emission trading system in 2015. It means that for the first time, government would regulate the amounts of carbon emission in private entities, and private entities should attain predefined emission reduction goals by implementing clean development mechanism (CDM) project or buy the Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from the trading market to avoid penalty. Under these circumstances, it is not easy for them to determine when or how to implement the CDM project because the governmental energy policies about the level of governmental subsidies, periods for free emission allocation, etc. are still under discussion and the future price of the CERs is quite uncertain. Thus, this study presents a real-option based model to assess the financial viability of the CDM project which switches bunker-C oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG). The proposed model is expected to assist private entities in establishing the investment strategy for CDM project under uncertain government energy policies.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.201-245
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• 2006

본 연구는 일반균형모형을 이용하여 배출권 거래로 인한 일반균형효과와 온실가스 저감비용의 효율성에 대해 알아보았다. 모든 국가가 교토의정서를 비준하고 연합을 형성한 국가끼리 배출권 거래를 한다는 가정 하에서 분할함수형태의 온실가스저감게임을 구성하였고, 전지구를 미국과 미국 이외의 OECD 국가군, 구소련연방, 개도국으로 나누어 연합구조별로 각 국가군에 미치는 영향을 일반균형모형으로 분석한 결과 대연합 하에서 기후변화협약은 연합을 형성하지 않은 ${\phi}$연합구조에 비해 동일한 환경적 효과를 달성하는데 978억 달러를 줄일 수 있어서 효율적인 것으로 나타났다. 하지만, 이 중 약 절반을 미국이 가지고 OEC가 20%를 가지는 반면 배출권 판매국인 구소련연방과 개도국은 각각 18%와 10%만을 가지는 것으로 나타나 배출권 구매국이 전체 연합이익의 약 70%를 가지는 것을 확인하였다. 개도국이 연합에 참여하지 않으면 2010년 Annex-I 국가의 저감량의 최대 22%를 상쇄하는 유출량을 발생하므로 기후변화협약의 본래의 목적인 온실가스 저감 및 안정화를 위해서는 개도국이 연합에 참여하여 유출량을 줄여야 한다. 하지만, 전지구적 배출권 거래시 Annex I 국가가 상당량의 연합이익을 가져가고 개도국의 에너지 산업은 위축되므로 기후변화협약의 안정성을 위해 추가지원금을 제안하고 개도국을 연합에 참여하도록 유인할 필요가 있다.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.52-58
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• 2020

최근 전 세계적 에너지 수요의 증가로 인하여 효율적 에너지 거래 기법에 대한 연구가 활발히 수행되고 있다. 이와 마찬가지로 신재생 에너지 자원을 이용한 마이크로그리드 커뮤니티의 수가 폭증함에 따라 에너지 프로슈머(prosumer)로 알려진 에너지 마켓 플레이어 간의 peer-to-peer 에너지 거래도 빠른 속도로 활성화되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 에너지 프로슈머들이 하이브(hive)로 정의된 소비자(consumer)들의 에너지 요구에 대해 에너지 거래자(worker) 역할을 수행하도록 하는 하이브 전략 기반의 새로운 에너지 거래 기법을 제안한다. 각 에너지 거래는 자신의 프로슈머 순위(prosumer rating)를 지니고 있으며 요구된 에너지 거래에 대해 최상의 프로슈머 순위를 지닌 거래자를 선택하도록 한다. 선택된 거래자는 마이크로그리드 커뮤니티 내의 에너지의 생산과 공급을 조절하여 가장 효율적인 에너지 거래가 이루어지도록 한다. 제안된 기법의 성능 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션을 수행한 결과 에너지 거래자를 이용하여 하이브들의 에너지 수요 문제를 효율적으로 처리할 수 있음을 보였다. 또한 에너지 거래자의 거래이득을 증진하고 프로슈머 순위 관리를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있음을 검증하였다.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.118-127
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• 2011

An IGCC was evaluated as one of the next generation technologies that would be able to substitute for coal-fired power plants. According to "The 4th Basic Plan of Long-term Electricity Supply & Demand" which is developed by the Electricity Business Acts, the first IGCC will be operated at 2015. Like other new and renewable energy such as solar PV, Fuel cell, The IGCC is considered as non-competitive generation technology because it is not maturity technology. Before the commercial operation of an IGCC in our electricity market, its economic feasibility under the Korean electricity market, which is cost-based trading system, is studied to find out institutional support system. The results of feasibility summarized that under the current electricity trading system, if the IGCC is considered like a conventional plant such as nuclear or coal-fired power plants, it will not be expected that its investment will be recouped within life-time. The reason is that the availability of an IGCC will plummet since 2016 when several nuclear and coal-fired power plants will be constructed additionally. To ensure the reasonable return on investment (NPV>0 IRR>Discount rate), the availability of IGCC should be higher than 77%. To do so, the current electricity trading system is amended that the IGCC generator must be considered as renewable generators to set up Price Setting Schedule and it should be considered as pick load generators, not Genco's coal fired-generators, in the Settlement Payment.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.235-245
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• 2023

Techno-economic analyses on a 5-MW water electrolysis system for hydrogen production, operated in Jeju Island where the portion of renewable energy in the power grid is the highest in Korea, have been performed. The cost of hydrogen production and the economic feasibility of the hydrogen production system have been mainly analyzed based on the levelized-cost-of-hydrogen model. The effects of carbon emission trading and renewable power purchase method have been considered to reduce the cost of green hydrogen production in the case studies. This economic analysis model is expected to be used to derive a business model for green hydrogen production.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.45-64
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper examines South Korea's potential status as a carbon leakage country, and the level of risk posed by the Korean emissions trading scheme (ETS) for Korean industries. The economic effects of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) to protect energy-intensive Korean industries in the process of achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030 through the Korean ETS are also analyzed. Design/methodology - First, using the Korean Input-Output (IO) table, this paper calculates the balance of emissions embodied in trade (BEET) and the pollution terms of trade (PTT) to determine Korean industries' carbon leakage status. Analyses of the risk level posed by carbon reduction policy implementation in international trade are conducted for some sectors by applying the EU criteria. Second, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, three BCA scenarios, exemption regulations (EXE), reimbursement (REB), and tariff reduction (TAR) to protect the energy-intensive industries under the Korean ETS are addressed. Compared to the baseline scenario of achieving carbon reduction targets by 2030, the effects of BCAs on welfare, carbon leakage, outputs, and trading are analyzed. Findings - As Korea's industrial structure has been transitioning from a carbon importing to a carbon leaking country. The results indicate that some industrial sectors could face the risk of losing international competitiveness due to the Korean ETS. South Korea's industries are basically exposed to risk of carbon leakage because most industries have a trade intensity higher than 30%. This could be interpreted as disproving vulnerability to carbon leakage. Although the petroleum and coal sector is not in carbon leakage, according to BEET and PTT, the Korean ETS exposes this sector to a high risk of carbon leakage. Non-metallic minerals and iron and steel sectors are also exposed to a high risk of carbon leakage due to the increased burden of carbon reduction costs embodied in the Korean ETS, despite relatively low levels of trade intensity. BCAs are demonstrated to have an influential role in protecting energy-intensive industries while achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030. The EXE scenario has the greatest impact on mitigation of welfare losses and carbon leakage, and the TAF scenario causes a disturbance in the international trade market because of the pricing adjustment system. In reality, the EXE scenario, which implies completely exempting energy-intensive industries, could be difficult to implement due to various practical constraints, such as equity and reduction targets and other industries; therefore, the REB scenario presents the most realistic approach and appears to have an effect that could compensate for the burden of economic activities and emissions regulations in these industries. Originality/value - This paper confirms the vulnerability of the Korean industrial the risk of carbon leakage, demonstrating that some industrial sectors could be exposed to losing international competitiveness by implementing carbon reduction policies such as the Korean ETS. The contribution of this paper is the identification of proposed approaches to protect Korean industries in the process of achieving the 2030 reduction target by analyzing the effects of BCA scenarios using a CGE model.