• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical model decomposition

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Analysis of the Effects of the Exchange Rate Volatility on Marine and Air Transportation (환율변동성이 해상 및 항공 수출입화물에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Kyung-Ae
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.131-154
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    • 2017
  • In international trade, transportation generally has the largest and direct impact on freight costs. However, it is also sensitive to external factors such as global economic conditions, global trade volume and exchange rate. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the relationship and influence of international trade in terms of external factors that affect the change of imports and exports by marine and air transportation through empirical analysis. In particular, the analysis of the impact of these external factors on marine and air transportation is an important topic when recent exchange rate changes are significant, and it is also necessary to analyze what transportation means are more sensitive to exchange rate changes. In this study, we use the Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rate and domestic and international economic conditions on marine and air transportation from January 2000 to March 2017. Respectively. Alos, Impulse response function and variance decomposition were examined.

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A Study on the Relation Exchange Rate Volatility to Trading Volume of Container in Korea (환율변동성과 컨테이너물동량과의 관계)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on Trading Volume of Container of Korea, and to induce policy implication in the contex of GARCH and regression model. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to the structural model to estimate dynamic short run behavior of variables. The major empirical results of the study show that the increase in exchange rate volatility exerts a significant negative effect on Trading Volume of Container in long run. The results Granger causality based on an error correction model indicate that uni-directional causality between trading volume of container and exchange rate volatility is detected. This study applies impulse response function and variance decompositions to get additional information regarding the Trading Volume of Container to shocks in exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the impact of exchange rate volatility on Trading Volume of Container is negative and converges on a stable negative equilibrium in short-run. Th exchange rate volatility have a large impact on variance of Trading Volume of Container, the effect of exchange rate volatility is small in very short run but become larger with time. We can infer policy suggestion as follows; we must make a stable policy of exchange rate to get more Trading Volume of Container

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Soil Erosion Assessment Tool - Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) (토양 침식 예측 모델 - Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP))

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Park, Seong-Jin;Choi, Chul-Man;Ko, Byong-Gu;Lee, Jong-Sik;Flanagan, D.C.
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.235-238
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    • 2008
  • The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was initiated in August 1985 to develop new generation water erosion prediction technology for federal agencies involved in soil and water conservation and environmental planning and assessment. Developed by USDA-ARS as a replacement for empirical erosion prediction technologies, the WEPP model simulates many of the physical processes important in soil erosion, including infiltration, runoff, raindrop detachment, flow detachment, sediment transport, deposition, plant growth and residue decomposition. The WEPP included an extensive field experimental program conducted on cropland, rangeland, and disturbed forest sites to obtain data required to parameterize and test the model. A large team effort at numerous research locations, ARS laboratories, and cooperating land-grant universities was needed to develop this state-of-the-art simulation model. The WEPP model is used for hillslope applications or on small watersheds. Because it is physically based, the model has been successfully used in the evaluation of important natural resources issues throughout the United State and in several other countries. Recent model enhancements include a graphical Windows interface and integration of WEPP with GIS software. A combined wind and water erosion prediction system with easily accessible databases and a common interface is planned for the future.

An Empirical Study on Causality among Trading Volume of Busan, Kawangyang and Incheon port (부산항, 광양항, 인천항의 물동량간 인과관계 분석)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Choon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.61-82
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causuality among export and import trading volume of port of Busan, Kwangyang, Incheon and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And We apply Granger causality and impulse response and variance decomposition based on VECM. The results indicate that the trading volume of port of Busan is not largely influenced by that of port of Kawangyang and Incheon, but the trading volume of port of Kawangyang and Incheon is largely influenced by other ports including port of Busan. The result suggest that government has to focus on policy that the port of Kawangyang and Incheon can raise its own competitiveness in the world market.

Developing Lessons and Rubrics to Promote Computational Thinking (Computational Thinking역량 계발을 위한 수업 설계 및 평가 루브릭 개발)

  • Choi, Hyungshin
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to suggest lesson plans and evaluation methods for primary pre-service teachers by reviewing the concept of computational thinking(CT) skills and its sub components. To pursue this goal, a literature review has been conducted in regards to CT and the effectiveness of programming courses. In addition, the Scratch educational programming functions were analyzed yielding six CT elements(data representation, problem decomposition, abstraction, algorithm & procedures, parallelization, simulation). With these six elements, one semester lesson plans for 15 weeks that represent the connections with six CT elements were designed. Based on the PECT(Progression of Early Computational Thinking) model and the CT framework a rubric to evaluate learners' proficiency levels(basic, developing, proficient) revealed in their final projects was developed as well. Upon a follow-up empirical study, the lesson plans and the rubric suggested in the current study are expected to be utilized in teachers' colleges.

The influence of perceived benefits and risks on the relational outcomes in strategically partnered firms (전략적 제휴 당사자 간의 이익 및 위험지각이 관계적 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • LIU, XINTONG;KIM, HAG-MIN
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.3-24
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    • 2017
  • The effects of strategic partnership can be positive or negative. This paper intends to explain why the partnership produces opposite results. This paper incorporates strategic behavioral direction and perceived values for relational performance. The conceptual model as well as empirical analysis was made and the results are as follows. First, this study uses bi-directional decomposition of two research constructs. The first construct of perceived values is classified into benefits and risks. Also, the behavioral directions are either active or passive behaviors. The critical path is found that the perceived benefits make significant effects on active behavioral direction which does on commitment. Another path is that the perceived risks make passive behavioral direction which results in opportunistic behaviors between strategically partnered firms.

Comparative Assessment of the Half-lives of Benfuresate and Oxolinic Acid Estimated from Kinetic Models Under Field Soil Conditions (포장조건에서 Kinetic Models로부터 산출한 Benfuresate 및 Oxolinic Acid의 토양중 반감기 비교평가)

  • Yang, Jae-E.;Park, Dong-Sik;Han, Dae-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.302-311
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    • 1995
  • Benfuresate or oxolinic acid, as an experimental pesticide, was applied to the different textural paddy or upland soil respectively under the field condition and the residual concentrations were determined. Six kinetic models were employed to characterize the best-fit kinetic model describing the residual pattern of benfuresate or oxolinic acid and the $t\frac{1}{2}$ estimated from each model was comparatively assessed. All of the six models explained significantly the residual patterns of the pesticides but the empirical models such as PF, EL, and PB were not recommendable for the $t\frac{1}{2}$ estimation. Among theoretical models, the residual patterns were followed in the orders of the second-order(SO)>first-order(FO)>zero-order(ZO) kinetics, judging from the size and significance of coefficient of determination and standard error. However, the multiple FO model, consisting of the fast and slow decomposition steps, was better than the single FO model for the residual pattern and the $r^2$ in this case became similar to that of SO kinetic model. Thus the multiple FO and SO models were represented as the best fit model of the experimental pesticide. The $t\frac{1}{2}$ of benfuresate estimated from the single FO kinetic model in Weolgog and Cheongwon series was 49 and 63 days, respectively, which were 20 and 13% longer than the respective $t\frac{1}{2}$ from the SO kinetic model. The $t\frac{1}{2}$ of oxolinic acid from the FO model in Yonggye and Ihyeon series were 87 and 51% longer than those from the SO kinetic model, respectively. These results demonstrated that the best-fit model representing the residual pattern of a pesticide and the resultant $t\frac{1}{2}$ might be variable with the kinds of pesticides and the environmental conditions. Therefore it is recommended that the half-life of a pesticide be assessed from the best-fit model rather than from the FO kinetic model uniformly.

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An Empirical Study of the Relationships between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Openness (개방화와 경제성장에 따른 한국, 중국, 일본의 이산화탄소 배출량 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Eunho;Heshmati, Almas;Cho, Yongsung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.3-37
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    • 2011
  • This paper investigates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide $CO_2$ emissions and its causal relationships with economic growth and openness by using time series data (1971-2006) from China (an emerging market), Korea (a newly industrialized country), and Japan (a developed country). The sample countries span a whole range of development stages from industrialized to newly industrialized and emerging market economies. The environmental consequences according to openness and economic growth do not show uniform results across the countries. Depending on the national characteristics, the estimated EKC show different temporal patterns. China shows an N-shaped curve while Japan has a U-shaped curve. Such dissimilarities are also found in the relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and openness. In the case of Korea, and Japan it represents an inverted U-shaped curve while China shows a U-shaped curve. We also analyze the dynamic relationships between the variables by adopting a vector auto regression or vector error correction model. These models through the impulse response functions allow for analysis of the causal variable's influence on the dynamic response of emission variables, and it adopts a variance decomposition to explain the magnitude of the forecast error variance determined by the shocks to each of the causal variables over time. Results show evidence of large heterogeneity among the countries and variables impacts.

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A Study on the Effect of Changes in Oil Price on Dry Bulk Freight Rates and Intercorrelations between Dry Bulk Freight Rates (국제유가의 변화가 건화물선 운임에 미치는 영향과 건화물선 운임간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.217-240
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    • 2011
  • In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

The Inter-correlation Analysis between Oil Prices and Dry Bulk Freight Rates (유가와 벌크선 운임의 상관관계 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Byoung-Churl;Lee, Kee-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-correlation between crude oil prices and Dry Bulk Freight rates. Eco-friendly shipping fuels has being actively developed to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon neutrality will take longer than anticipated in terms of the present development process. Because of OVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crude oil price fluctuation has been exacerbated. So we must examine the impact on Dry Bulk Freight rates the oil prices have had, because oil prices play a major role in shipping fuels. By using the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model with monthly data of crude oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI) and Dry Bulk Freight rates (BDI, BCI and (BP I) 2008.10~2022.02, the empirical analysis documents that the oil prices have an impact on Dry bulk Freight rates. From the analysis of the forecast error variance decomposition, WTI has the largest explanatory relationship with the BDI and Dubai ranks seoond, Brent ranks third. In conclusion, WTI and Dubai have the largest impact on the BDI, while there are some differences according to the ship-type.