• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.262-268
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• 2020

The IMO (International Maritime Organization) has mandated the restriction of SOx emissions to 0.5 % for all international sailing vessels since January 2020. And, a number of countries have designated emission control areas for stricter environmental regulations. Three representative methods have been suggested to cope with these regulations; using low-sulphur oil, installing a scrubber, or using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) as fuel. In this paper, economic analysis was performed by comparing the method of installing a scrubber with the method of using low-sulphur oil without installing additional equipment. We suggested plausible layouts and compared the pros and cons of dif erent scrubber types for retrofitting. We selected an international sailing ship as the target vessel and estimated payback time and benefits based on navigation route, fuel consumption, and installation and operation costs. Two case of oil prices were analyzed considering the uncertainty of fuel oil price fluctuation. We found that the expected payback time of investment varies from 1 year to 3.5 years depending on the operation ratio of emission control areas and the fuel oil price change.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.10
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• pp.37-45
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• 2014

Purpose - This study aims to analyze the relationship between trends in innovative EU industries and market distribution in smaller emerging markets under an open economy. Research design, data, and methodology - Although innovation was well-distributed, due to socio-economic factors following European integration, CEE had not achieved sustainable economic growth. However, this paper analyzes the differences among changes in CEE innovation for smaller emerging markets dominated since 2000. Market distribution has facilitated new markets for innovative industries, according to EU surveys and economic indicators. Results - The dominance of the local industrial market distribution has deterred innovation investment the survey shows that innovation investment has been shrinking, despite the EU's open innovation policy for CEE employment and R&D. For the CEE case, there were expectation gaps and uncertainty about whether to use the new distribution dominance or TNCs' innovation in smaller emerging countries without local industrial innovation. Conclusions - Innovation generates market growth and distribution power however, small growth requires stimulation, and creativity and innovative edge need further focus in local public and corporate strategy.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.81-90
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• 2017

In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.21-42
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• 2014

In this study, we are estimating the economic effects of the rising sea level due to the climate change in the Korean Eastern and Southern coastal areas. Using disaggregated regional data, we also estimate the optimal rate of coastal protection. We use FUND (The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution) in order to obtain estimates of the expected inundation ratios by geographical district. Our estimates suggest that in Busan the ratio of inundated land to total territory will likely constitute 3.19% by 2100, while the number in Gangwon-do province is estimated to be lower at only 0.1%. We estimate the associated economic damage to differ by geographical district with the economically active regions such as e.g. Busan and Ulsan cities, or the Gyeongsang-nam-do province, likely to sustain relatively more damage. In Busan and Ulsan where the coastal line is relatively short and the size of expected economic damage is rather high, we estimate the optimal rate of coastal protection to be at the level of 98% and 92%, respectively. In the Kyeongsang-nam-do area that is also likely to suffer a substantial economic damage due to the inundation, we suggest the optimal ratio of coastal protection to be set at the level of 78%~79%. In contrast, in the Kangwon-do province where the expected economic damage is estimated to be low, the optimal rate of coastal protection is estimated to be around 43%, depending on the scenario.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1116-1123
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• 2015

The lifetime of a geostationary satellite depends on the residual propellant amount and therefore the precise residual propellant gauging is very important for the mitigation of economic loss arised from premature removal of satellite from its orbit, satellites replacement planning, slot management and so on. In this paper, the thermal mass method and its uncertainty are described. The residual propellant analysis of a geostationary satellite is simulated based on the KOREASAT data and the uncertainty of thermal mass method is calculated by using the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study show the importance parameter of estimation residual propellant using the thermal mass method.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.29-37
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• 2019

Purpose - We study the dynamic linkages of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US on the manufacturing stock market returns in Korea. In detail, we examine the casual link between EPU index in the US and the manufacturing stock indexes in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We measure mainly the distribution effect of the US EPU on the manufacturing stock market in Korea of 1990-2017 by the vector error correction model (VECM). Result - In result, we estimate the impact of the US EPU index has significantly a negative response to the manufacturing stock market in Korea such as non-metal stock index, chemical stock index, food stock index, textile·clothes stock index, automobile·shipbuilding stock index, machinery stock index, steel·metal stock index. Also the remaining variables such as electric·electronics stock index, S&P 500, and producer price index in Korea have a negative relationship with US EPU index. Conclusions - We find out that the relationship between EPU index of the US and the manufacturing stock market in Korea has the negative relationships. We determine the EPU of the US has the spillover effect on the industry stock markets in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.39-60
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• 1995

In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.280-291
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• 2018

In the framework of OECD/NEA Working Group on Fuel Safety, a RIA fuel-rod-code Benchmark Phase I was organized in 2010-2013. It consisted of four experiments on highly irradiated fuel rodlets tested under different experimental conditions. This benchmark revealed the need to better understand the basic models incorporated in each code for realistic simulation of the complicated integral RIA tests with high burnup fuel rods. A second phase of the benchmark (Phase II) was thus launched early in 2014, which has been organized in two complementary activities: (1) comparison of the results of different simulations on simplified cases in order to provide additional bases for understanding the differences in modelling of the concerned phenomena; (2) assessment of the uncertainty of the results. The present paper provides a summary and conclusions of the second activity of the Benchmark Phase II, which is based on the input uncertainty propagation methodology. The main conclusion is that uncertainties cannot fully explain the difference between the code predictions. Finally, based on the RIA benchmark Phase-I and Phase-II conclusions, some recommendations are made.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.281-295
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• 2009

This study estimates the value of irrigation water in Korea using an economic programming model that is constructed with all the resource endowment constraints, technology restrictions and policy variables. The variability and uncertainty of water resource endowment are incorporated into the model through the chance-constrained technique. Solving the profit maximization problems with gradually reduced water endowments, we derive a series of shadow values of irrigation water. It has been found that uncertainty in water supply raises the damage from water loss, and the marginal damage increases in water loss.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.306-324
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to analyze green growth issues such as employment, education and training, social capital and nature's standing right from the complementary perspective between natural environment conservation and economic growth. Green growth can be defined as a growth which lowers an increasing rate of entropy and at the same time improves our living standard. Green growth paradigm requires a quite amount of understanding the laws of thermodynamics and the uncertainty principle as the highest orders which regulate our overall socio-economic behaviors. They suggest that socio-economic growth is a mere transformation process of natural energy from one form to another and they increases natural manmade entropy over time. The most important issue of green growth policy may be a problem concerning employment and/or unemployment since green growth may induce inevitable movement of resources from the existing industries to the green sector. In particular, green industries will demand more highly specialized manpower than the existing ones. Without a well-designed new training education system and social capital accumulation toward environmental concerns, green growth may accompany a substantial amount of structural involuntary frictional unemployment. This may increase not only wealth-distribution disparity but also political instability. In order to achieve harmonious green growth, we should recognize that there are important complementary relationships between green and growth. Our society should also be able to innovate the existing educational system to accumulate social capital, to create a new sharing system, and to admit nature's standing right. Although the 2003 lawsuit case of Korean Salamander in Cheonseong Mountain went against plaintiff, it would provide apparently our society with a way of green development ahead.