• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Uncertainty

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Consistency in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply and Social Costs (전력수급기본계획의 정합성과 사회적 비용)

  • LEE, Suil
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.55-93
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    • 2012
  • In Korea, energy policies are actualized through various energy-related plans. Recently, however, as high-ranking plans, which are very vision-oriented, continually set higher sector-by-sector goals, subordinate action plans, which require consistency, encounter distortions in their establishment process. Also, each subordinate action plan reveals limitations in terms of securing flexibility of the plan in responding to uncertainties of the future. These problems pose potential risks such as causing huge social costs. In this regard, with an aim to provide empirical evidence for discussions on improving the procedure for developing and executing Korea's energy plans, this study mainly analyzes the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply-one of the most important subordinate action plans-in order to explain the problems of the Basic Plan in a logical manner, and potential problems that could occur in the process of sustaining consistency between the Basic Plan and its higher-ranking plans. Further, this paper estimates the scale of social costs caused by those problems assuming realistic conditions. According to the result, in the case of where maximum electric power is estimated to be 7% (15%) less than the actual amount in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, the annual generation cost will rise by 286 billion won and (1.2 trillion won) in 2020. Such social costs are found to occur even when establishing and executing the Basic plan according to the target goal set by its higher-ranking plan, the National Energy Master Plan. In addition, when another higher-ranking GHG reduction master plan requires the electricity sector to reduce emissions by additional 5% in the GHG emissions from the right mix in electricity generation with 'zero' cost of carbon emission, the annual generation cost will rise by approximately 915 billion won in 2020. On the other hand, the analysis finds that since economic feasibility of electric powers in Korea varies significantly depending on their type, Korea is expected to face very small potential social costs caused by uncertainties over the future price of carbon dioxide in the process of establishing the Basic Plan.

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Estimate on the Crustal Thickness from Using Multi-geophysical Data Sets and Its Comparison to Heat Flow Distribution of Korean Peninsula (다양한 지구물리 자료를 통해 얻은 한반도의 지각두께 예측과 지열류량과의 비교)

  • Choi, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyung-Rae;Kim, Chang-Hwan;Park, Chan-Hong;Suh, Man-Chul
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.493-502
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    • 2011
  • We study the deep structure of Korean Peninsula by estimating Moho depth and crustal thickness from using land and oceanic topography and free-air gravity anomaly data. Based on Airy-Heiskanen isostatic hypothesis, the correlated components between the terrain gravity effects and free-air gravity anomalies by wavenumber correlation analysis(WCA) are extracted to estimate the gravity effects that will be resulted from isostatic compensation for the area. With the resulting compensated gravity estimates, Moho depth that is a subsurface between the crust and mantle is estimated by the inversion in an iterative method with the constraints of 20 seismic depth estimates by the receiver function analysis, to minimize the uncertainty of non-uniqueness. Consequently, the average of the resulting crustal thickness estimate of Korean Peninsula is 32.15 km and the standard deviation is 3.12 km. Moho depth of South Korea estimated from this study is compared with the ones from the previous studies, showing they are approximately consistent. And the aspects of Moho undulation from the respective study are in common deep along Taebaek Mountains and Sobaek Mountains and low depth in Gyeongsang Basin relatively. Also, it is discussed that the terrain decorrelated free-air gravity anomalies inferring from the intracrustal characteristics of the crust are compared to the heat flow distributions of South Korea. The low-frequency components of terrain decorrelated Free-air gravity anomalies are highly correlated with the heat flow data, especially in the area of Gyeongsang basin where high heat flow causes to decrease the density of the rocks in the lower crust resulting in lowering the Moho depth by compensation. This result confirms that the high heat sources in this area coming from the upper mantle by Kim et al. (2008).

The Applicability of Conditional Generative Model Generating Groundwater Level Fluctuation Corresponding to Precipitation Pattern (조건부 생성모델을 이용한 강수 패턴에 따른 지하수위 생성 및 이의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Lee, Byung Sun;Song, Sung-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a method has been proposed to improve the performance of hydraulic property estimation model developed by Jeong et al. (2020). In their study, low-dimensional features of the annual groundwater level (GWL) fluctuation patterns extracted based on a Denoising autoencoder (DAE) was used to develop a regression model for predicting hydraulic properties of an aquifer. However, low-dimensional features of the DAE are highly dependent on the precipitation pattern even if the GWL is monitored at the same location, causing uncertainty in hydraulic property estimation of the regression model. To solve the above problem, a process for generating the GWL fluctuation pattern for conditioning the precipitation is proposed based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). The CVAE trains a statistical relationship between GWL fluctuation and precipitation pattern. The actual GWL and precipitation data monitored on a total of 71 monitoring stations over 10 years in South Korea was applied to validate the effect of using CVAE. As a result, the trained CVAE model reasonably generated GWL fluctuation pattern with the conditioning of various precipitation patterns for all the monitoring locations. Based on the trained CVAE model, the low-dimensional features of the GWL fluctuation pattern without interference of different precipitation patterns were extracted for all monitoring stations, and they were compared to the features extracted based on the DAE. Consequently, it can be confirmed that the statistical consistency of the features extracted using CVAE is improved compared to DAE. Thus, we conclude that the proposed method may be useful in extracting a more accurate feature of GWL fluctuation pattern affected solely by hydraulic characteristics of the aquifer, which would be followed by the improved performance of the previously developed regression model.

A Study on the Effect of Organizational Trust of the Container Terminal Operators' Employee on Organizational Citizenship Behavior -Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Organizational Support- (컨테이너터미널 운영사 구성원의 조직신뢰가 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향 -조직적 후원의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ik-Seong;Seon, Hwa;Kim, Hyun-Deok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.65-100
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the effects of organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee on organizational citizenship behavior and the moderating effect of organizational support in the relationship between the two variables. In order to efficiently achieve the purpose of this study, an empirical analysis was conducted by distributing a literature review and a questionnaire, and the results of the study are as follows... First, the organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee was found to have a significant positive (+) effect on organizational citizenship behavior, and trust in the company appeared to be more important than trust in the superior, indicating trust in the institutional aspect. This means that formation has more influence on organizational citizenship behavior... Second, it was confirmed that the organizational support of the container terminal operators' employee can lead to active participation in organizational citizenship behavior through the expansion of educational compensatory support. Third, among the organizational support of container terminal operators, emotional support and educational compensatory support were found to have a partial moderating effect on the relationship between organizational trust and organizational citizenship behavior." Emotional support has a moderating effect on caring and active participation behaviors in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behaviors, and a moderating effect on caring, active participation, and non-complaining behaviors in the relationship between trust in superiors and organizational citizenship behaviors. It was analyzed that there is Compensatory educational support has a moderating effect on altruistic, caring, active participation, and non-complaining behavior in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behavior. It was analyzed that there was a moderating effect on active participation and non-complaining behavior. These analysis results mean that members' trust in the company further increases through the container terminal operator's emotional support and educational reward support. As uncertainty grows, it is very important to increase the trust of organizational members in the organization. sense of belonging to the organization, Emotional support that can increase immersion, improvement of work environment, provision of educational opportunities, and education-compensatory support such as a fair compensation system will increase organizational trust and induce effective organizational citizenship behavior to realize sustainable growth of the organization.

Evaluation of Hydrogeological Characteristic of Natural Barrier in Korea for Establishing Safety Guidelines of Deep Geological High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Site (고준위방사성폐기물 심층처분 부지 수리 지질 안전 규제를 위한 국내 지질환경 수리 특성 평가)

  • Suwan So;Jiho Jeong;Jaesung Park;Hyeongmok Lee;Subi Lee;Sujin Kim;Sinda Mbarki;Jina Jeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.397-416
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    • 2024
  • This study assessed the hydrogeological properties of the deep geological environment to develop safety criteria for the natural barriers used in the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Korea. The assessment focused on the distribution and trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability properties appropriate for the domestic geological environment, using various in-situ hydraulic test data collected for groundwater development and management. To develop a depth-hydrogeological property relationship model suitable for domestic conditions, the study reviewed various international research examples and applied a representative model that explains the trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability with depth. The development of the model suitable for Korea involved applying ensemble regression analysis to account for the uncertainty of various factors in the collected data. The results confirmed that existing international depth-hydrogeological property relationship models adequately describe the characteristics of the domestic geological environment. Considering the preferred hydrogeological criteria suggested by countries like Sweden, Germany, and Canada, there is a high likelihood that a suitable geological environment exists in Korea. Additionally, the application of hydrogeological criteria indicative of low-permeability environments showed that suitable conditions for disposal construction increase at depths greater than 300 m, where the influence of fractures on groundwater flow might be minimal at depths exceeding 500 m. This research can serve as foundational information for establishing hydrogeological safety standards for natural barriers in Korea according to international regulatory guidelines.

A Study on the Factors Influencing Technology Innovation Capability on the Knowledge Management Performance of the Company: Focused on Government Small and Medium Venture Business R&D Business (기술혁신역량이 기업의 지식경영성과에 미치는 요인에 관한 연구: 정부 중소벤처기업 R&D사업을 중심으로)

  • Seol, Dong-Cheol;Park, Cheol-Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.193-216
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    • 2020
  • Due to the recent mid- to long-term slump and falling growth rates in the global economy, interest in organizational structures that create new products or services as a new alternative to survive and develop in an opaque environment both internally and externally, and enhance organizational sustainability through changes in production methods and business innovation is increasing day by day. In this atmosphere, we agree that the growth of small and medium-sized venture companies has a significant impact on the national economy, and various efforts are being made to enhance the technological innovation capabilities of the members so that these small and medium-sized venture companies can enhance and sustain their performance. The purpose of this study is also to investigate how the technological innovation capabilities of small and medium-sized venture companies correlate with the performance of knowledge management and to analyze the role of network capabilities to organize the strategic activities of enterprise to obtain the resources and organizational capabilities to be used for value creation from external networks. In other words, research was conducted on the impact of technological innovation capabilities of small and medium venture companies on knowledge management performance by using network capabilities as parameters. Therefore, in this study, we would like to verify the hypothesis that innovation capabilities will have a positive impact on knowledge management performance by using network capabilities of small and medium venture companies. Economic activities based on technological innovation capabilities should respond quickly to new changes in an environment where uncertainty has increased, and lead to macro-economic growth and development as well as overcoming long-term economic downturns so that they can become the nation's new growth engine as well as sustainable growth and survival of the organization. In addition, this study was conducted by setting the most important knowledge management performance within the organization as a dependent variable. As a result, R&D and learning capabilities among technological innovation capabilities have no impact on financial performance. In contrast, it was shown that corporate innovation activities have a positive impact on both financial and non-financial performance. The fact that non-financial factors such as quality and productivity improvement are identified in the management of small and medium-sized venture companies utilizing their technological innovation capabilities is contrary to a number of studies by those corporate innovation activities affect financial performance during prior research. The reason for this result is that research companies have been out of start-up companies for more than seven years, but sales are less than 10 billion won, and unlike start-up companies, R&D and learning capabilities have more positive effects on intangible non-financial performance than financial performance. Corporate innovation activities have been shown to have a positive (+) impact on both financial and non-financial performance, while R&D and learning capabilities have a positive (+) impact on financial performance by parameters of network capability. Corporate innovation activities have been shown to have no impact on both financial and non-financial performance, and R&D and learning capabilities have no impact on non-financial performance. It could be seen that the parameter effects of network competency are limited to when R&D and learning competencies are derived from quantitative financial performance. It could be seen that the parameter effects of network competency are limited to when R&D and learning competencies are derived from quantitative financial performance.

The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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The Factors Affecting on the Franchisor's Performance and Its Intention of Recontracting with Franchisees : Focused on the Chinese Franchise Market (프랜차이즈 본부의 성과 및 재계약의도에 영향을 미치는 요인들에 관한 연구 : 중국프랜차이즈 시장을 중심으로)

  • Shuai, Su;Seo, Sang-Yun;Lee, Hoon-Yong
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2012
  • Franchises have recently emerged as the most rapidly expanding industry positioned to create a large impact in the domestic economic. The Chinese franchise industry developed rapidly in the period prior and subsequent to WTO accession with more than 50% of new franchises brands emerging since 2000. M&A transactions in the Chinese franchise industry have progressed actively. In the period from 2005-2007, due to the wholesale and retail market opening in accordance with the guidelines laid forth within the MOU by the WTO the Chinese franchise market is now the largest market in the world all despite a short history of only 20 years. The amount of franchise market research on China is disproportional to its current size and development potential. Beginning in the 1990s, market research conducted by the International Franchise Association focused on emerging markets in Eastern Europe and China. While the research dealt with the Chinese investment environment, it insufficiently explained the market region and cultural environment. The purpose of this research is (i) to investigate the determinants of the performance of franchise systems in China and (ii) new contract renewals based on performance factors. This study will complement existing research in terms of the franchisee perspective. This study may also prove of the benefit to the franchise companies entering the Chinese franchise market enabling them to develop an effective strategy. This study shows that support, incentives, and system standardization by franchisor yielded a positive effect on management performance. This is consistent with previous studies by Shin (2000) and Kim (2008) targeting Korean franchises. Therefore, in the Chinese market, the franchisor must focus on support, incentives, and system standardization rather than concentrate only on the recruitment of franchisees in order to improve revenue. Hypotheses regarding franchisor control have been dismissed in existing research, in the opinion of this study, due to their complexity and inability to control the merchant as a one-kind-assessment-standard. Our findings show that the franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit, among franchisee's characteristics, have a positive effect on franchisor's business performance and satisfaction for the franchisee. This is consistent with previous studies on headquarters' management performance of Lussier (1996), Heo and Jang (2008), and franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit effect on franchisor's satisfaction of Weaven and Franzer (2007), Kim (2009), Han (2009), and Yoon etc. (2008). Therefore, when permitting a franchisee, financial condition, management ability, entrepreneurship of the franchisee should be carefully considered. Among relational factors between franchisor and franchisee, trust has the positive influence on the management performance of the franchisor while conflict has a negative effect. However, trust, commitment and conflict factors have been shown not to have any impact on the satisfaction of the franchise headquarters. This result is consistent with the previous studies of Pavlou and Ba (2000), Morrison (1999), Weaven and Frazer (2007), Kim and Park (1994), Sohn (2007) which show that trust between franchisor and the franchisees have a positive effect and that conflict has a negative impact on franchisor's management performance. Other factors causing a negative effective on the franchisor's management performance are a rapid environmental changes and uncertainty in the business. This is consistent with Campbell et al (2007), Kim and Kim (2009), Han and Baek (2008). Finally, the high management performance and satisfaction of the franchise headquarters has a positive effect on the intention of franchise renewal. In the case of large markets such as China, the franchisor's strategy and the role is very important. In this study, we also investigated the characteristics of franchisor and franchisee, relationship, and environmental uncertainty affecting on the management performance and satisfaction of franchisor. Recently, Korean franchises are attempting to enter foreign markets through the rise in popularity of Korean culture and entertainment commonly referred to as the Korean wave. This study provides recommendations for Korean franchises intending on entering the Chinese market. First, in order to achieve stable profits, the franchise corporation needs to support the operation of the individual franchisee through incentives and standardization of services. Second, because trust between the franchisor and franchisee has a positive effect on management performance, on-going discussion and cooperation is necessary to reduce the level of conflict.

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Dynamic Limit and Predatory Pricing Under Uncertainty (불확실성하(不確實性下)의 동태적(動態的) 진입제한(進入制限) 및 약탈가격(掠奪價格) 책정(策定))

  • Yoo, Yoon-ha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

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"Improving women's and children's health in DPRK" project funded by the Republic of Korea (현재 진행되고 있는 남북한 의료협력사업 : 영유아 지원 사업을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Young-Jeon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.671-689
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    • 2008
  • The economic recession of North Korea has been prolonged, the need for humanitarian assistance for the women and children of DPRK has been raised. In March 2006, South Korean government signed MOU with World Health Organization (WHO) to financially support "Improving Women's and Children's Health in DPRK (IWCH)" project. The assistance projects through UNICEF and the non-government organizations of South Korea were also followed. IWCH project consists of three parts; nutrition, disease management, children and maternity care. The first term (2006-2007) of the project leading by WHO was finished, and the second term (2008-2010) is just begun. The projects driven by NGOs have relatively been delayed due to difficulties in negotiating on project contents and places with North Korea. Recently, however, re-modeling processes of an obstetric/gynecology hospital and a children hospital in Nampo were started. Up to recently, South Korean government has played only a limited role in the humanitarian assistance for North Korea. IWCH project is, however, a full-scale initiative driven by government based on a systematic review of need and priorities. A significant amount of budget and relatively long term (five year) project compare to the previous short term and small size programs were expected to make more meaningful achievement. Despite these positive aspects, the project remains a list of unsolved problems a lack of mutual trust, a different decision making process between South and North Korea, a lack of conflict management process, and unpredictability and complexity of international politics. In spite of such kind of political uncertainty, the health care sector will be a leading area in the process of improving relationship between South and North Korea, particularly, humanitarian assistance for women and children will play a crucial role in the process. The successful implementation of IWCH project, therefore, will contribute to provide the reference model in developing the mutually constructive relationship between South and North