• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Uncertainty

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Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export & Import Container Volumes in Korea (환율변동성이 우리나라 컨테이너 수출입 물동량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • AHN, Kyung-Ae
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.75
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    • pp.95-116
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    • 2017
  • The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

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A Study on Information Required for the Development of New Textile Materials of Korean Textile Industry

  • Lee, Eun-Oak
    • The International Journal of Costume Culture
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.28-39
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    • 2004
  • The Korean textile industry the driving force of Korea's economic development, is faced with difficulties due to domestic and foreign influences. The purpose of this paper is to examine what measures are necessary for overcoming such difficulties. As the first step, We conducted a month-long survey, in August 2003, of 157 small-medium firms operating in the Korean textile industry to collect information about difficulties that they face in carrying out their business. According to the result, small firms performed badly in sales and facility investment efforts for 2003 due to worldwide economic depression. They, however, actively pursued new technology development in order to improve their competitiveness. Profits and productivity decreased with reduced sales, and their view on the next year’s perspective is also very unfavorable. Especially many firms intend to maintain or even lower the level of sales goal for 2004, reflecting the sluggish market environment. According to the survey, under such circumstances, as many as 74% of firms wanted to turn the tables through the development of highly sensuous material and improved marketing efforts. One of potential answers to this problem, which is suggested by the survey, is to establish a consulting service institution to provide promptly marketing data and information on textile and fashion market and trend in Italy. Especially, firms surveyed have shown a great deal of interest in Italian consulting service for new textile material developments. While they want the service for high value-added product development, they are reluctant to do so because of the uncertainty of its future effects and high consulting fees.

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A Case Analysis of the Economic Impact on Accidents during Excavation (터파기 공사 사고의 경제적 영향 사례분석)

  • Go, Kwang-Ro;Lee, Ghang;Choi, Myung-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.7-10
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    • 2008
  • As the land price in the downtown area increases, buildings are becoming bigger, deeper and higher. Consequently, the importance of underground construction has increased. Although construction engineers make every effort to complete underground construction without any problem, construction failures like landslides and the collapse of a retaining wall occur because of the uncertainty of the soil conditions as well as the unexpected risks of excavation work. In order to prevent potential excavation accidents, it is essential to understand the causes and impacts of such accidents. However, there are only a few examples of construction failures, which show the economic impact on accidents during excavation because of the sensibility of the information. This paper presents two cases of excavation accidents, which were investigated by construction insurance company. The compensation for the accidents paid by the insurance company was compared with the estimated costs calculated based on the estimation method for excavation accidents proposed by our previous study. The comparison results showed that the estimate calculated by our method was much less than the actual compensation because the estimate solely focused on the construction costs whereas the compensation included other external factors.

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An Analysis of Decision-Making in Extreme Weather using an ABM Approach Application of Mode Choice in Heavy Rain & Heavy Snow (극한기후 시 의사결정 변화를 고려한 ABM 연구 - 폭우.폭설 시 교통수단 선택을 사례로 -)

  • Na, Yu-Gyung;Lee, Seung-Ho;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.304-313
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    • 2012
  • Uncertainty increases as a result of environment change and change of individual decision-making in extreme weather. This study consider individual decision-making which has been not covered until now. The purpose of this study is making Agent-Based Model to predict it more accurate that how much change travel demand in heavy rain and heavy snow. Through this model, it can be utilized to forecast travel demand, changes in travel behavior and traffic patterns. It will be also possible to predict discomfort index and risk of accidents.

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Analytical Study of the Current Status of the Construction Industry Using a Survey for Statistical Data (통계자료 조사를 통한 건설산업 현황 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoon-Tai
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.257-260
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    • 2009
  • With the current global financial crisis, Korea's economic situation involves a great deal of uncertainty. As the construction industry in Korea has traditionally been one of the country's strongest engines of economic development, it is crucial to understand its current status when establishing government policy or corporate goals. Utilizing a variety of statistical data related to construction that has been published in Korea, this study analyzes the current status and performance of the industry in terms of technological development. Although it was found that the construction industry in Korea is currently unstable due to the influence of the global financial crisis, it is now expected to recover quickly thanks to the increase in the number of construction contracts in foreign countries. In addition, when the performance of national research and development is realized, it is expected that new construction technologies will contribute to the recovery of the Korean construction industry. Despite the benefits of construction contracts in foreign countries, there are harmful practices in the industry that need to be addressed, including the excessively fierce competition among domestic construction companies.

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Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management Using Seismic Risk Assessment (지진위험도평가 방법을 이용한 내진성능관리 의사결정)

  • Kim, Dong Joo;Choi, Ji Hye;Kim, Byeong Hwa
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2019
  • The strategy for the management of earthquakes is shifting from post recovery to prevention; therefore, seismic performance management requires quantitative predictions of damage and the establishment of strategies for initial responses to earthquakes. Currently, seismic performance evaluation for seismic management in Korea consists of two stages: preliminary evaluation and detailed evaluation. Also, the priority of seismic performance management is determined in accordance with the preliminary evaluation. As a deterministic method, preliminary evaluation quantifies the physical condition and socio-economic importance of a facility by various predetermined indices, and the priority is decided by the relative value of the indices; however, with the deterministic method it is difficult to consider any uncertainty related to the return-year, epicenter, and propagation of seismic energy. Also this method cannot support tasks such as quantitative socio-economic damage and the provision of data for initial responses to earthquakes. Moreover, indirect damage is often greater than direct damage; therefore, a method to quantify damage is needed to enhance accuracy. In this paper, a Seismic Risk Assessment is used to quantify the cost of damage of road facilities in Pohang city and to support decision making.

ROI Model for the Adoption of RFID Technology in SCM (SCM 차원에서 본 RFID 기술 도입에 따른 ROI 분석 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dea-Ki;Kim, Jung-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2006
  • Responsiveness to the uncertainty of SCM system shows its competitiveness. In order to secure SCM competitiveness, RFID-related projects aim to enhance both system visibility and process automation. Nowadays, we conduct RFID technology-oriented researches very actively; however, quantitative ROI analysis model from the perspective of SCM does not exist yet, which helps decide the introduction of technology. Therefore, our study suggests a ROI analysis model for the adoption of RFID technology, and we demonstrate its usefulness using the real world data that is taken from one of the government-funded RFID projects in Korea.

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Estimation of carbon storage in coastal wetlands and comparison of different management schemes in South Korea

  • Byun, Chaeho;Lee, Shi-Hoon;Kang, Hojeong
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2019
  • Background: Organic carbon stored in coastal wetlands, which comprises the major part of oceanic "blue carbon," is a subject of growing interest and concern. In this study, organic carbon storage in coastal wetlands and its economic value were estimated using the raw data of 25 studies related to soil carbon storage. Data were collected from three tidal flats (one protected and two developed areas) and two estuarine salt marshes (one protected and one restored area). Bulk density, soil organic matter content, and standing biomass of vegetation were all considered, with Monte Carlo simulation applied to estimate the uncertainty. Results: Mean carbon storage in two salt marshes ranged between 14.6 and $25.5kg\;C\;m^{-2}$. Mean carbon storage in tidal flats ranged from 18.2 to $28.6kg\;C\;m^{-2}$, with variability possibly related to soil texture. The economic value of stored carbon was estimated by comparison with the price of carbon in the emission trading market. The value of US $ $6600\;ha^{-1}$ is ~ 45% of previously estimated ecosystem services from fishery production and water purification functions in coastal areas. Conclusions: Although our study sites do not cover all types of large marine ecosystem, this study highlights the substantial contribution of coastal wetlands as carbon sinks and the importance of conserving these habitats to maximize their ecosystem services.

Investigating Determinants of Entrepreneurial Leadership Among SMEs and Their Role in Sustainable Economic Development of Saudi Arabia

  • NAUSHAD, Mohammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.225-237
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    • 2021
  • The current study aims to classify what determines entrepreneurial leadership among small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Saudi Arabian context. It also attempted to recognize the role played by entrepreneurial leadership by supporting SMEs in the nation's sustainable economic growth. The study is based on a primary survey administered among SMEs in the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia. Overall, 152 responses were collected. However, after data cleaning, only 107 were found to be fit for final analysis. Structural Equation Modelling using SmartPLS® Software was applied for analysis. The findings emerged from the study immensely concluded that entrepreneurial leadership is an essential instrument for managers/owners of the SMEs sector who aim to improve the efficiency of tasks and contextual performance in Saudi Arabia. The study came across that "ability to absorb uncertainty," "ability to build commitment," "the ability to frame the Challenge," "the ability of path-clearing," and "ability to specify limits," are the five constructs that help frame the entrepreneurial leadership in the Saudi context. The study suggests that leadership trainers, SME policymakers must focus on precisely these skills to inculcate the ability of entrepreneurial leadership among Saudi entrepreneurs, SMEs owners, and managers.

The Default Risk of the Research Funding with Uncertain Variable in South Korea, Along with the Greeks (옵션민감도를 고려한 기술자금의 경제적 가치와 실패확률)

  • Sim, Jaehun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2021
  • As a nation experiencing rapid economic growth, South Korea and its government have made a continuous effort toward efficient research investments to achieve transformation of the Korean industry for the fourth industrial revolution. To achieve the maximum effectiveness of the research investments, it is necessary to evaluate its funding's worth and default risk. Thus, incorporating the concepts of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the Greeks, this study develops a default-risk evaluation model in the foundation of a system dynamics methodology. By utilizing the proposed model, this study estimates the monetary worth and the default risks of research funding in the public and private sectors of Information and Communication technologies, along with the sensitivity of the R&D economic worth of research funding to changes in a given parameter. This study finds that the public sector has more potential than the private sector in terms of monetary worth and that the default risks of three types of research funding are relatively high. Through a sensitivity analysis, the results indicate that uncertainty in volatility, operation period, and a risk-free interest rate has trivial impacts on the monetary worth of research funding, while volatility has large impacts on the default risk among the uncertain factors.