• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.1-42
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• 2020

This paper studies, from a quantity theory of money perspective, the reasons that North Korean inflation and exchange rates maintain stability while its economy is experiencing difficulties due to the international community's economic sanctions. In doing so, this paper uses both domestic and foreign currencies in an analytic model based on the quantity theory of money to cautiously reflect North Korea's dollarization as well as its management of its exchange rate. In particular, foreign currency holdings are divided into those for store-of-value purposes and those for transaction purposes. This paper shows that in the early stages, in which the amount of foreign currency holdings for store-of-value purposes is decreasing while the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes is intact, inflation and exchange rates both exhibit stable movements. In the middle stages, where the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes begins to fall, exchange rates show some increase and inflation decreases. In the final stages, when the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes significantly decreases, exchange rates and inflation both increase, and in some situations a crisis can happen. According to this paper's analysis, if the economic sanctions continue to the extent that the amount of North Korean foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes starts to fall, the exchange rate and inflation stability we see now are unlikely to be maintained.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.519-544
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• 2016

This paper examines quantile dependence and directional predictability between the foreign exchange market and the stock market in Korea. Instead of adopting a multivariate model such as a vector autoregressive model, a multivariate GARCH model or a combination of both models, we apply the cross-quantilogram recently proposed by Han et al. (2016). Considering various quantile ranges, we investigate various spillover effects between two markets. Our findings show that there exists an asymmetric bi-directional spillover between two markets and the interdependence between two markets implies that one market has significant predictive power on the other.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.13-39
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• 2006

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the interaction effects of organizational characteristics as contextual variables on the relationship between relational exchange characteristics and ASP service performance. The effect of relational exchange characteristics on ASP service performance has been also investigated. For this purposes, we developed a research model based on the literature reviews of ASP services, relational exchange theory, and contingency theory. A total of 106 usable survey responses from companies using ASP services has been analyzed in the study. The findings indicate that (1) flexibility and partnership had a positive influence upon noneconomic profit, (2) information sharing had a positive influence upon economic profit, (3) organizational size and IS maturity had a partial moderating effect on the relationship between relational exchange characteristics and ASP service performance, and (4) the subgroup analysis, conducted to determine the exact nature of interaction effect, reveals that the relationship between relational exchange characteristics and noneconomic profit is significantly stronger with a high level of organizational size than with a low level, and that the relationship between relational exchange characteristics and economic profit is significantly stronger with a low level of IS maturity than with a high level.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.107-125
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• 2007

With the rapidly increasing of Korean enterprises, the importance of foreign exchange(FX) risk management for the future operation generated from FDI contract is becoming the critical problem of international business. This type of FX risk, called as "economic exposure risk", requires us of the unique risk management principles and techniques. In this paper, we identify the properties of economic exchange rate exposure, analyze the identification and measurement processes of risk sources and strength, and perform the estimation of the main determinants and its profile effects of the invoicing currency for the efficient management of economic FX exposure.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.43-52
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• 2020

This paper examines how macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate differences, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth and external debt growth, affect capital flight in the ASEAN-8 countries. We apply a panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data for eight countries from the period 1994 to 2018. We use the residual approach used by the World Bank to measure the value of capital flight. The results show that the interest rate differences, exchange rates, economic growth and foreign debt growth had a positive and significant effect on outward capital flight. A further implication of this finding is that the interest rate differences, exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt growth are factors that trigger an increase in capital outflow in the ASEAN-8 countries. Nonetheless, inflation rate is not considered to be the main factor influencing capital flight, as average inflation in the ASEAN-8 countries remains relatively stable. This paper will be beneficial for policymakers in the ASEAN-8 countries and encourage them to constantly pay attention to these four variables, as they significantly influence capital flight, whereas they can disregard the impact of the inflation variable that is not significant in influencing capital flight.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.275-322
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• 2015

The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.165-184
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• 2020

Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty arising from unexpected depreciation has a stronger impact on Korea-U.S. exchange rates and that 2) macro variables, such as capital flows or interest rate differentials, have predictive ability regarding Korea FX uncertainty for short horizons. These findings enable us to predict the events of sudden currency crashes and understand the Korea-U.S. exchange rate dynamics.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.75
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• pp.95-116
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• 2017

The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.629-639
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• 2020

The current study explains how corruption, terrorism, political stability and oil price has an effect on on the Iraq stock exchange utilizing corruption perception index as a proxy of corruption, global terrorism index as proxy for terrorism, political stability and oil price with ISX60 index as proxy of stock market for the period (2005-2019) using Ordinary Least Square method. The results show that the level of corruption, terrorism activities and political stability coefficient is significantly positive with Iraq stock exchange. In contrast, the oil price coefficient is significantly negative with Iraq stock exchange, which means that lower levels of corruption, less terrorism activities and more stability in political system have strong influence on stock market development in Iraq. The study concludes that the explanatory variables are important for Iraq stock exchange. Hence, the study suggests the policy makers to develop stock market by implementing policies and strategies to overcome high level of corruption, terrorism activities especially after ISIS/ISIL announcement has been made public. There is a need for transparency and creating stable political environment through good governance practices in order to attract more foreign investment and promote economic development. Factors like terrorism and corruption make economic and political systems unstable and has an adverse effect on on Iraq's stock exchange performance.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.183-220
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• 2019

Nowadays, soft power is playing a more important role in international communication and cooperation, and as cultural exchange in regional cooperation is deeply influenced by national soft powers, the development is usually unbalanced. Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar are adjacent to each other with a long history of intercourse. In the year 2013, initiation of constructing Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor advocated by China and India was responded positively by Bangladesh and Myanmar. Since then, the world has witnessed an increasing connection of these four countries. Being the critical bond connecting the southwestern areas of China and Bangladesh, India as well as Myanmar, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor is characterized by multiple regional cultures along with frequent connections in cultural products and activities. However, cultural exchange now is dominated by imbalanced development due to potent soft power of China and India that these two countries export more cultural products to the rest, which has an impact in many fields of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Priority should be given to coordinated development in cultural exchange regarding the construction of Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Only by developing a sustainable development mechanism for cultural exchange, to coordinate the influences of soft powers of these four countries, then a fine complexion of "all flowers are in bloom" can be created, returning to five original intention of the construction of this economic corridor: "Policy Communication" and "Strength People-to-people Ties", etc.