• 유통과학연구
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.37-51
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide a basis for establishing a policy to promote the export of Korean goods through the economic ripple effect of the Korean Wave. From 2001 to 2017, cultural goods exports and consumer goods exports data to 102 countries were used to estimate the effect of cultural goods exports on domestic consumer goods exports. Research design, data and methodology: Based on the Gravity Model, we analyzed the effects of domestic film, publishing, music, broadcasting, clothing, cosmetics, processed food, IT products, and automobiles on the export of consumer goods. Results: The empirical analysis estimated the trade creation effect of exports of cultural products driving exports of consumer goods and found that a 1% increase in exports of cultural products increased 0.136% in exports of consumer goods. Conclusions: The average rate of change in consumer goods exports due to changes in cultural product exports was 22.44, which could be interpreted as an increase of $2,244 in exports of consumer goods such as IT products, cosmetics, clothing, and processed foods. According to the analysis of export-driven effects of each consumer item by dividing cultural products by sector, the effects of export of processed foods, clothing, cosmetics, IT products, and film, music, publishing exports were statistically significant.

• 동남아시아연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.65-100
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• 2010

One of main findings of the competitiveness relation is rapid increase of Chinese influence on the southeast Asian market. While Japanese market share is decreasing, Chinese market share is continuously increasing in the market. It is the same regardless of types of production phases. Analysis based on gravity model shows that in general Chinese exports is crowding out Korean and Japanese export to the market. The magnitude of the effects on Korean exports is larger than on Japanese exports. Also, It is found that the directions of the effect of Chinese exports on Korean and Japanese exports are different by production phrases. For all processed goods, increase of Chinese exports decreases both Korean and Japanese exports to the market. However, for some final goods such as transport equipment and food & beverages for household, Chinese exports is increasing Korean and Japanese exports to the market.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권5호
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• pp.39-57
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• 2022

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing exports of agricultural products(HS01~HS24) from China to Korea by estimating the gravity model with panel data from 31 provinces in China. The results of the empirical analysis from the panel Tobit model are as follows: The effects of GDP and GDP per capita on agricultural exports are reversed, but their impacts are different on exports of each product, notably HS03, HS07 and HS20. As expected, distance decreases Chinese agricultural exports, and the impact of the relative exchange rate variable is also statistically significant, although it differs from product to product. However, differences in latitude, which considers the heterogeneity of climate and agricultural production conditions between Korea and each Chinese region, does not seem to affect agricultural exports to Korea. The road length, which affects the logistical conditions of each province in China, is not statistically significant either. On the other hand, increases in the number of Chinese visitors to Korea raises the amount of Chinese agricultural exports, including exports of HS03 and HS20. The results also shows that after the Korea-China FTA agreements, agricultural exports have actually decreased, especially exports of non-processed agricultural products, such as HS07.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.107-123
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Granger Causality relations between Korean FDI and exports in Vietnam using time-series from 2005 to 2019. Using 15-industry semi-annual data of Korean FDI and exports toward Vietnam, the Granger Causality Tests were conducted. Var and VEC models were decided after unit-root and cointegration tests of variables. Findings and implications of the empirical tests are as follows. First, unexpectedly FDI did not Grange-cause exports only in one direction. In two industries, food & beverage and medical & chemical products, there were Granger causality relations in both directions. In eight industries including print, publishig, pulp & paper, exports did Grange-cause FDI. In the rest of five industries including automative & trailer industry, there were no Granger Causality relation in both directions. Second, we presume that the both direction-causality relations are desirable phenomenon for Korea. Because Korean FDI and exports are increasing at the same time. On the other hand, substitution relationship between Korea's exports and FDI occur in the industry that exports did Grange-cause FDI. Finally, more in-depth researches considering Vietnam's consumer demand and the oriented characteristics of FDI are needed. The results of this research will contribute to understand structural patterns of FDI and exports in Vietnam and to make investment and export decisions.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.19-40
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• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 중력모형을 이용하여 걸프협력회의(GCC) 6개국 수출의 결정요인이무엇인가를 정량적으로 분석하는 것이다. 중력모형을 이용하여 GCC 회원국인 쿠웨이트, 사우디아라비아, 바레인, 카타르, 연합아랍에머리트 및 오만의 55개 주요 무역국과의 수출 결정요인을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 수출국의 GDP와 수입국의 GDP의 곱이 카타르를 제외한 GCC 5개국의 수출에 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 긍정적 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 거리는 아랍에메리에트(UAE), 사우디아라이바 및 오만에 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석된 반면에, 바레인과 카타르의 수출에는 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 수출국의 1인당 GDP는 바레인, UAE와 오만의 수출에는 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었지만, 사우디아라비아의 수출에는 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 수출국의 인구는 GCC 6개국 모든 나라의 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 이와 대조적으로 수입국의 인구는 쿠웨이트, 바레인과 카타르의 수출에는 긍정적인 영향을 주었지만 사우디아라비아의 수출에는 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 국경은 GCC 회원국 중 어느 나라의 수출에도 유의한 영향을 주지 못한 것으로 분석되었다. 공동언어의 경우 쿠웨이트, 사우디아라비아, 바레인 및 오만의 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. 자유무역협정(FTA)는 바레인의 수출에만 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었으며, 카타르와 오만의 수출에는 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다. GCC회원국자격은 쿠웨이트, 바레인 및 카타르의 수출에는 긍정적인 영향을 주었지만 사우디아라비아의 수출에는 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 분석되었다.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.279-303
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• 2006

본 논문에서는 한국의 IT 기기산업 특히 IT 기기 수출에 대해 다룬다. 현재 IT 기기 수출은 한국 전체 수출의 약 30%를 차지하고 있으며, 더욱이 IT 기기 수출 규모는 매년 증가하고 있다. 한국 경제에 IT 기기 수출이 미치는 영향력은 매우 엄청나다고 볼 수 있다. 그러나 이러한 영향력에 대한 연구는 쉽게 발견할 수가 없다. 본 논문에서는 산업연관분석을 사용하여 2002년부터 2005년까지 IT 기기 수출이 국내 산업에 미치는 경제적 파급효과를 분석한다. 이를 위해 한국의 IT 기기 수출의 현황에 대해 요약하여 제시하고, 다양한 수준에서의 IT기기 수출의 경제적 파급효과 분석결과를 제시한다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.101-118
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• 2020

This study aims to quantify the effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on exports in the Korean manufacturing industry. To do this, we employ product-level export data that includes information about whether or not a product is affected by NTMs. One of the main results is that NTMs (SPS/TBT) on average led to reduction in Korean exports. However, the effects of NTMs differed depending on the income level of the NTM-imposing country. The NTMs imposed by high-income countries, such as U.S.A. and Japan, were found to impede Korean exports, whereas the export effect of NTMs imposed by low-income countries such as China was found to not be statistically significant. In addition, the results analyzed based across industries, income level, and types of NTMs are as follows. First, NTMs imposed on textile-related products generally hindered exports regardless of the type of NTMs, but its negative impact on exports was noticeable in the case of NTMs originating from high-income countries. On the other hand, chemical product-related NTMs were found to lead to an increase in Korean exports, and it had a positive effect in the case of SPS imposed by low-income countries. In other industries except for textile- and chemical-related products, the effects of NTMs on exports were either statistically insignificant or showed inconsistent patterns.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.146-163
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2024

This study analyzes the impact of import country environments on Korean fishery exports. To achieve the research objective, focusing on trade facilitation and import market aspects, the import country environment was modeled and analyzed by panel gravity analysis technique. In the basic export model considering only the trade facilitation aspect, agriculture and institutional factors had a significant impact on Korean fishery exports. However, when considering both trade facilitation and import market aspects, it was found that import market aspect had a greater influence on Korean fishery exports than trade facilitation aspect. Specifically, the import market factor that had the most positive impact on Korean fishery exports was the GDP of the import country. GDP, representing the economic scale of the country, indicates consumer purchasing power through per capita GDP. Hence, a higher GDP level implies a higher consumer purchasing power, suggesting a higher potential consumption of fishery products. The second positive factor influencing Korean fishery exports was food imports in the import country. Therefore, to expand Korean fishery exports, it is essential to target countries with high levels of GDP and food imports. Conversely, factors negatively affecting Korean fishery exports were merchandise imports and population in the import country. Therefore, countries with high levels of these negative factors should be managed as demarketing targets. Additionally, trade facilitation variables, which have relatively smaller influence, such as transparency and institutions, also significantly impact Korean fishery exports. While transparency has a positive effect, institution has a negative effect. Thus, to expand Korean fishery exports, strategies should focus on countries with high transparency and less stringent institutional regulations.