• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dropout Decision

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Student Academic Performance, Dropout Decisions and Loan Defaults: Evidence from the Government College Loan Program

  • HAN, SUNG MIN
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.71-91
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    • 2016
  • This paper examines the effect of the government college loan program in Korea on student academic performance, dropout decisions and loan defaults. While fairness in educational opportunities has been guaranteed to some degree through this program, which started in 2009, there has been a great deal of controversy over its effectiveness. Empirical findings suggest that recipients of general student loan (GSL) lower academic performance than those who received income contingent loan (ICL). Moreover, for students attending private universities, a higher number of loans received increased the probability of a dropout decision, and students from middle-income households had a higher probability of being overdue than students from low-income households. These findings indicate that expanding the ICL program within the allowance of the government budget is necessary. Furthermore, providing opportunities for students to find various jobs and introducing a rating system for defaulters are two necessary tasks.

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A Comparative Study of Prediction Models for College Student Dropout Risk Using Machine Learning: Focusing on the case of N university (머신러닝을 활용한 대학생 중도탈락 위험군의 예측모델 비교 연구 : N대학 사례를 중심으로)

  • So-Hyun Kim;Sung-Hyoun Cho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2024
  • Purpose : This study aims to identify key factors for predicting dropout risk at the university level and to provide a foundation for policy development aimed at dropout prevention. This study explores the optimal machine learning algorithm by comparing the performance of various algorithms using data on college students' dropout risks. Methods : We collected data on factors influencing dropout risk and propensity were collected from N University. The collected data were applied to several machine learning algorithms, including random forest, decision tree, artificial neural network, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification, and Naive Bayes. The performance of these models was compared and evaluated, with a focus on predictive validity and the identification of significant dropout factors through the information gain index of machine learning. Results : The binary logistic regression analysis showed that the year of the program, department, grades, and year of entry had a statistically significant effect on the dropout risk. The performance of each machine learning algorithm showed that random forest performed the best. The results showed that the relative importance of the predictor variables was highest for department, age, grade, and residence, in the order of whether or not they matched the school location. Conclusion : Machine learning-based prediction of dropout risk focuses on the early identification of students at risk. The types and causes of dropout crises vary significantly among students. It is important to identify the types and causes of dropout crises so that appropriate actions and support can be taken to remove risk factors and increase protective factors. The relative importance of the factors affecting dropout risk found in this study will help guide educational prescriptions for preventing college student dropout.

Evaluation of Predictive Models for Early Identification of Dropout Students

  • Lee, JongHyuk;Kim, Mihye;Kim, Daehak;Gil, Joon-Min
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.630-644
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    • 2021
  • Educational data analysis is attracting increasing attention with the rise of the big data industry. The amounts and types of learning data available are increasing steadily, and the information technology required to analyze these data continues to develop. The early identification of potential dropout students is very important; education is important in terms of social movement and social achievement. Here, we analyze educational data and generate predictive models for student dropout using logistic regression, a decision tree, a naïve Bayes method, and a multilayer perceptron. The multilayer perceptron model using independent variables selected via the variance analysis showed better performance than the other models. In addition, we experimentally found that not only grades but also extracurricular activities were important in terms of preventing student dropout.

Development of Prediction Model to Improve Dropout of Cyber University (사이버대학 중도탈락 개선을 위한 예측모형 개발)

  • Park, Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.380-390
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    • 2020
  • Cyber-university has a higher rate of dropout freshmen due to various educational factors, such as social background, economic factors, IT knowledge, and IT utilization ability than students in twenty offline-based university. These students require a different dropout prevention method and improvement method than offline-based universities. This study examined the main factors affecting dropout during the first semester of 2017 and 2018 A Cyber University. This included management and counseling factors by the 'Decision Tree Analysis Model'. The Management and counseling factors were presented as a decision-making method and weekly methods. As a result, a 'Dropout Improvement Model' was implemented and applied to cyber-university freshmen in the first semester of 2019. The dropout-rate in freshmen applying the 'Dropout Improvement Model' decreased by 4.2%, and the learning-persistence rate increased by 11.4%. This study applied a questionnaire survey, and the cyber-university students LMS (Learning Management System) learning results were analyzed objectively. On the other hand, the students' learning results were analyzed quantitatively, but qualitative analysis was not reflected. Nevertheless, further study is necessary. The 'Dropout Improvement Model' of this study will be applied to help improve the dropout rate and learning persistence rate of cyber-university.

Investigating Factors Influencing University Students' Intention to Dropout based on Education Satisfaction (교육만족도 관점에서 학생의 학업중단 의도에 대한 연구)

  • Han, Dong-Wook;Kang, Min-Chae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting dropout intention based on education satisfaction survey analysis of local J university. Total 7,248 survey data which has high trustability were analyzed. Analysis of variance was performed to verify differences between each grade and credits level. There are significant differences between the year grade and credit level. Especially the result show that the satisfaction of freshman is higher than the other grade students. To verify relation between intention to dropout and satisfaction of university education logistic regression analysis method has been applied and satisfaction of academic guidance, vocational guidance, environment of education and self-satisfaction of university life are significantly related to the dropout intention. The most important variable is self-satisfaction of university life which determine dropout intention through decision tree analysis.

The Phenomenological Study on School Dropout of Specialized Vocational High School Students (특성화고등학교 학생의 학업중단에 대한 현상학적 연구)

  • Lee, Myung-Hun
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.23-51
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analysis school dropout of specialized vocational high school students using phenomenological research method. The interview for the research was carried out with 10 adolescents who dropped out specialized vocational high school from December 8 to 23, 2018. According to the result of the research, 31 themes were extracted from interviews with 10 research participants. And 10 theme clusters were categorized from these. And these clusters were divided into 3 domains : 'before school dropout', 'causes & process of school dropout, feeling about school dropout', 'after school dropout' Based on the finding of the study, major conclusions of this study were as follow: First, adolescents who dropped out specialized vocational high school suffered from hard school life, disappointing lead from teachers, stereotypical lesson. And they committed misdeeds, and had psychological difficulties. Some of them kept up the good relationship with their friends, teachers, parents, some of them did not. Some of them kept up the good relationship with their friends, teachers and parents, while some of them did not. Second, they chose dropout due to various different causes. The procedures of school dropout proceeded with comparative ease. The effect of dropout prevention program is very limited. The feeling they felt at the time of school dropout varied individually. Some adolescents who dropped out specialized vocational high school were satisfied while others were stressed out, regretting their decision. Third, they lived diligently working part-time jobs or preparing General Equivalency Diploma (GED) test after dropout. They experienced positive changes in their daily lives after dropout. But sometimes they experienced various difficulties and negative changes. Most of them had their goals, and they were preparing for them. Their expectation was low that their life will succeed if they returned to school. They wanted people to understand their decision about dropout. And multiple institutions are supporting adolescents who dropped out specialized vocational high school. They need practical support : Various information, activity for career experience, counseling etc.

The effects of factors of major commitment on the decision of academic dropout of the dental technology students of K university (K 대학 치기공학과 재학생의 전공몰입이 학업 중도포기에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Soon-Suk;Lee, Sun-Kyoung
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This experiment aims to provide the fundamental resources in developing a programme intended to prevent students from dropping out of their academics by promoting students to develop an optimistic psychological state, through analysis of the factors that influence students' commitment to their major. Methods: A self-administered questionnaire was conducted from $19^{th}$ of November of the year 2018, till $1^{st}$ of December of the same year, with dental technology students located in W city as the subject. 261(93.2%) of the participants' responses were used for the final analysis. Results: A negative association between factors of commitment to major and factors of academic dropout decision were portrayed to be of statistical significance (p<.01), and factors of commitment to major that influence dropping out of their academics were shown to be that of 'autotelic experience' (p<.001) with a negative ( - ) relationship, and 'change in a sense of time' (p<.01) with a positive ( + ) relationship of statistical significance, while the explanatory power of the model was shown to be 33.6%. Conclusion: In order to prevent dental technology students from dropping out of their academics, following their entrance, To achieve this, the department must consider the implementation of, aside from subject matters of the major, other various extra-curricular programmes, and programmes in which the supervisor is consistently providing consultations that are tailored to each individual student.

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning based Prediction Models for University Students Dropout (머신러닝 기반 대학생 중도 탈락 예측 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Seok-Bong Jeong;Du-Yon Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2023
  • The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

Implementation of a Machine Learning-based Recommender System for Preventing the University Students' Dropout (대학생 중도탈락 예방을 위한 기계 학습 기반 추천 시스템 구현 방안)

  • Jeong, Do-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2021
  • This study proposed an effective automatic classification technique to identify dropout patterns of university students, and based on this, an intelligent recommender system to prevent dropouts. To this end, 1) a data processing method to improve the performance of machine learning was proposed based on actual enrollment/dropout data of university students, and 2) performance comparison experiments were conducted using five types of machine learning algorithms. 3) As a result of the experiment, the proposed method showed superior performance in all algorithms compared to the baseline method. The precision rate of discrimination of enrolled students was measured to be up to 95.6% when using a Random Forest(RF), and the recall rate of dropout students was measured to be up to 80.0% when using Naive Bayes(NB). 4) Finally, based on the experimental results, a method for using a counseling recommender system to give priority to students who are likely to drop out was suggested. It was confirmed that reasonable decision-making can be conducted through convergence research that utilizes technologies in the IT field to solve the educational issues, and we plan to apply various artificial intelligence technologies through continuous research in the future.

Feasibility of Deep Learning Algorithms for Binary Classification Problems (이진 분류문제에서의 딥러닝 알고리즘의 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Kitae;Lee, Bomi;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2017
  • Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.