• Title/Summary/Keyword: Discriminant models

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Bankruptcy predictions for Korea medium-sized firms using neural networks and case based reasoning

  • Han, Ingoo;Park, Cheolsoo;Kim, Chulhong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.203-206
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    • 1996
  • Prediction of firm bankruptcy have been extensively studied in accounting, as all stockholders in a firm have a vested interest in monitoring its financial performance. The objective of this paper is to develop the hybrid models for bankruptcy prediction. The proposed hybrid models are two phase. Phase one are (a) DA-assisted neural network, (b) Logit-assisted neural network, and (c) Genetic-assisted neural network. And, phase two are (a) DA-assisted Case based reasoning, and (b) Genetic-assisted Case based reasoning. In the variables selection, We are focusing on three alternative methods - linear discriminant analysis, logit analysis and genetic algorithms - that can be used empirically select predictors for hybrid model in bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results using Korean medium-sized firms data show that hybrid models are very promising neural network models and case based reasoning for bankruptcy prediction in terms of predictive accuracy and adaptability.

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Steal Success Model for 2007 Korean Professional Baseball Games (2007년 한국프로야구에서 도루성공모형)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Choi, Jeong-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.455-468
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    • 2008
  • Based on the huge baseball game records, the steal plays an important role to affect the result of games. For the research about success or failure of the steal in baseball games, logistic regression models are developed based on 2007 Korean professional baseball games. The analyses of logistic regression models are compared of those of the discriminant models. It is found that the performance of the logistic regression analysis is more efficient than that of the discriminant analysis. Also, we consider an alternative logistic regression model based on categorical data which are transformed from uneasy obtainable continuous data.

Financial Distress Prediction Models for Wind Energy SMEs

  • Oh, Nak-Kyo
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper was to identify suitable variables for financial distress prediction models and to compare the accuracy of MDA and LA for early warning signals for wind energy companies in Korea. The research methods, discriminant analysis and logit analysis have been widely used. The data set consisted of 15 wind energy SMEs in KOSDAQ with financial statements in 2012 from KIS-Value. We found that five financial ratio variables were statistically significant and the accuracy of MDA was 86%, while that of LA is 100%. The importance of this study is that it demonstrates empirically that financial distress prediction models are applicable to the wind energy industry in Korea as an early warning signs of impending bankruptcy.

An Evaluation of the Streetscape According to the Change of Moving Speed -Through the Experiment of the Virtual Reality- (이동속도의 변화에 따른 가로경관의 평가 -Virtual Reality를 이용한 실험-)

  • 정재희
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the visual evaluation structure about the formal changes of streetscape by the different moving speed in two alternative control plans for the building height and the setback regulation. The virtual reality system is applied to the experimental tool. Eighty-two experimental models are made in consideration of the height and the setback of the building regulation cased by Midou-suji street in Osaka City, Japan. and ten typical models are selected by pre-experiment. Since the changes of the landscape structure consists of the height and the setback of the building, four the evaluation items are set: grade of continuity, order, openness, preference. As there are eighty-two landscape models which are too many to be applied in this experiment, ten role models are drawn out and used in this experiment. The mean difference test, discriminant analysis, and multiple linear regression methods had been used for the statistical analysis methods. The results of this study are as follows; 1) It is found out the fact of the difference evaluation structure amount experiments models. 2) From the sketch analysis and interview, it is found out difference cognition structure by the moving speed and alternatives. 3) From the discriminant and regression analysis, it is found out that the evaluation value about continuity becomes low by the moving speed change from walking speed to driving speed. We suggest that continuous experiment should be made with a variety of groups and models, and general and universal results should also be come out of the experiments above.

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Empirical Analysis of 3 Statistical Models of Hospital Bankruptcy in Korea (병원도산 예측모형의 실증적 비교연구)

  • 이무식;서영준;양동현
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 1999
  • This study was conducted to investigate the predictors of hospital bankruptcy in Korea and to examine the predictive power for 3 types of statistical models of hospital bankruptcy. Data on 17 financial and 4 non-financial indicators of 30 bankrupt and 30 profitable hospitals in 1. 2, and 3 years before bankruptcy were obtained from the hospital performance databank of Korea Institute of Health Services Management. Significant variables were identified through mean comparison of each indicator between bankrupt and profitable hospitals, and the predictive power of statistical models of hospital bankruptcy were compared. The major findings are as follows. 1. Nine out of 21 indicators - fixed ratio, quick ratio, operating profit to total assets, operating profit to gross revenue, normal profit to total assets,normal profit to gross revenue, net profit to gross revenue, inventories turnrounds, and added value per adjusted patient - were found to be significantly predictitive variables in Logit and Probit models. 2. The predicdtive power of discriminant model of hospital bankruptcy in 1. 2, and 3 years before bankruptcy were 85.4, 79.0, and 83.8% respectively. With regard to the predictive power of the Logit model of hospital bankruptcy, they were 82.3, 75.8, and 80.6% respectively, and of the Probit model. 87.1. 80.6, and 88.7% respectively. 3. The predictive power of the Probit model of hospital bankruptcy is better than the other two predictive models.

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Detection of Pathological Voice Using Linear Discriminant Analysis

  • Lee, Ji-Yeoun;Jeong, Sang-Bae;Choi, Hong-Shik;Hahn, Min-Soo
    • MALSORI
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    • no.64
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2007
  • Nowadays, mel-frequency cesptral coefficients (MFCCs) and Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used for the pathological voice detection. This paper suggests a method to improve the performance of the pathological/normal voice classification based on the MFCC-based GMM. We analyze the characteristics of the mel frequency-based filterbank energies using the fisher discriminant ratio (FDR). And the feature vectors through the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) transformation of the filterbank energies (FBE) and the MFCCs are implemented. An accuracy is measured by the GMM classifier. This paper shows that the FBE LDA-based GMM is a sufficiently distinct method for the pathological/normal voice classification, with a 96.6% classification performance rate. The proposed method shows better performance than the MFCC-based GMM with noticeable improvement of 54.05% in terms of error reduction.

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Discriminant Prediction Function and Its Affecting Factors of Private Hospital Closure by Using Multivariate Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression Models (다변량 판별분석과 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 민간병원의 도산예측 함수와 영향요인)

  • Jung, Yong-Mo;Lee, Yong-Chul
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.123-137
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    • 2010
  • The main purpose of this article is for deriving functions related to the prediction of the closure of the hospitals, and finding out how the discriminant functions affect the closure of the hospitals. Empirical data were collected from 3 years financial statements of 41 private hospitals closed down from 2000 till 2006 and 62 private hospitals in business till now. As a result, the functions related to the prediction of the closure of the private hospital are 4 indices: Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. From these discriminant functions predicting the closure, I found that the profitability indices - Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets - are the significant affecting factors. The discriminant functions predicting the closure of the group of the hospitals, 3 years before the closure were Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and among them Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues are the significant affecting factors. However 2 years before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure of the hospital were Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and it was the significant affecting factor. And, one year before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure were Total Assets Turnover, Fixed Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Total Assets, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. Among them, Total Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues were the significant affecting factors.

WEED DETECTION BY MACHINE VISION AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

  • S. I. Cho;Lee, D. S.;J. Y. Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2000.11b
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    • pp.270-278
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    • 2000
  • A machine vision system using charge coupled device(CCD) camera for the weed detection in a radish farm was developed. Shape features were analyzed with the binary images obtained from color images of radish and weeds. Aspect, Elongation and PTB were selected as significant variables for discriminant models using the STEPDISC option. The selected variables were used in the DISCRIM procedure to compute a discriminant function for classifying images into one of the two classes. Using discriminant analysis, the successful recognition rate was 92% for radish and 98% for weeds. To recognize radish and weeds more effectively than the discriminant analysis, an artificial neural network(ANN) was used. The developed ANN model distinguished the radish from the weeds with 100%. The performance of ANNs was improved to prevent overfitting and to generalize well using a regularization method. The successful recognition rate in the farms was 93.3% for radish and 93.8% for weeds. As a whole, the machine vision system using CCD camera with the artificial neural network was useful to detect weeds in the radish farms.

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Operation Modes Classification of Chemical Processes for History Data-Based Fault Diagnosis Methods (데이터 기반 이상진단법을 위한 화학공정의 조업모드 판별)

  • Lee, Chang Jun;Ko, Jae Wook;Lee, Gibaek
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.383-388
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    • 2008
  • The safe and efficient operation of the chemical processes has become one of the primary concerns of chemical companies, and a variety of fault diagnosis methods have been developed to diagnose faults when abnormal situations arise. Recently, many research efforts have focused on fault diagnosis methods based on quantitative history data-based methods such as statistical models. However, when the history data-based models trained with the data obtained on an operation mode are applied to another operating condition, the models can make continuous wrong diagnosis, and have limits to be applied to real chemical processes with various operation modes. In order to classify operation modes of chemical processes, this study considers three multivariate models of Euclidean distance, FDA (Fisher's Discriminant Analysis), and PCA (principal component analysis), and integrates them with process dynamics to lead dynamic Euclidean distance, dynamic FDA, and dynamic PCA. A case study of the TE (Tennessee Eastman) process having six operation modes illustrates the conclusion that dynamic PCA model shows the best classification performance.

Evaluation of the performance of the ranking DEA model (순위결정 DEA모형의 변별력 평가)

  • Park, Man-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.298-299
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the discriminant power of the DEA models which do not require the prior information of decision makers was evaluated. Entropy model, Bootstrap model, Benevolent Cross Efficiency model, Aggressive Cross Efficiency model and Game Cross Efficiency model were selected as the DEA model for discriminant power evaluation. The discriminant power of five DEA models was evaluated using coefficient of variation and degree of importance. According to the evaluation results, the rank of discrimination power was evaluated in the order of Entropy model, Aggressive CE model, Benevolent CE model, Game CE model, and Bootstrap model in both evaluation indexes.

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