• 제목/요약/키워드: Disaster model

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A Stock Pre-positioning Model to Maximize the Total Expected Relief Demand of Disaster Areas

  • Lee, Woon-Seek;Kim, Byung Soo;Opit, Prudensy Febreine
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.297-303
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    • 2014
  • Stock pre-positioning is one of the most important decisions for preparing the stage of emergency logistics planning. In this paper, a mixed integer model for stock pre-positioning is derived to support an emergency disaster relief response against the event of earthquake. A maximum response time limit, budget availability, multiple item types, and capacity restrictions are considered. In the model, the decision of the distribution centers to cover a disaster area and the amount of supplies to be stocked in each distribution center are simultaneously determined to maximize the total expected relief demand of the disaster areas covered by the existing distribution centers. The proposed model is applied to a real case with 33 disaster areas and 16 distribution centers in Indonesia. Several sensitivity analyses are conducted to estimate the fluctuation on the emergency stock pre-positioning planning by changing the maximum response time and budgets.

A stress model reflecting the effect of the friction angle on rockbursts in coal mines

  • Fan, Jinyang;Chen, Jie;Jiang, Deyi;Wu, Jianxun;Shu, Cai;Liu, Wei
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2019
  • Rockburst disasters pose serious threat to mining safety and underground excavation, especially in China, resulting in massive life-wealth loss and even compulsive closed-down of some coal mines. To investigate the mechanism of rockbursts that occur under a state of static forces, a stress model with sidewall as prototype was developed and verified by a group of laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. In this model, roadway sidewall was simplified as a square plate with axial compression and end (horizontal) restraints. The stress field was solved via the Airy stress function. To track the "closeness degree" of the stress state approaching the yield limit, an unbalanced force F was defined based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion. The distribution of the unbalanced force in the plane model indicated that only the friction angle above a critical value could cause the first failure on the coal in the deeper of the sidewall, inducing the occurrence of rockbursts. The laboratory tests reproduced the rockburst process, which was similar to the prediction from the theoretical model, numerical simulation and some disaster scenes.

풍수해 현장조치 행동매뉴얼 분석을 통한 상황 기반 재난 대응 모델 연구 (A Study of the Situation Based Disaster Response Model from the Damage of Storm and Flood Field Manual)

  • 이창열;박길주;김태환;이현성
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.617-625
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    • 2019
  • 연구목적: 재난 유형별로 관리되는 현장조치행동매뉴얼은 해당 재난의 종합적인 대책 가이드라인이라고 할 수 있지만, 실제 재난은 매뉴얼에 기록된 모든 임무가 다 필요하지는 않기 때문에 현장 담당자가 수행해야할 임무에 혼선이 발생할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 특정 재난 상황에 따라 필요한 임무만 수행할 수 있는 상황 기반 재난 대응 프로세스 모델을 제시한다. 연구방법: 현장조치행동매뉴얼에서 언급된 재난 상황의 유형을 분류하고, 각 재난 상황에 따른 임무 수행 시나리오가 반영된 재난 대응 프로세스를 도출한다. 그리고 이에 대한 검증과 보완으로 안전한국 훈련의 훈련 시나리오를 본 모델에 적용하여 지속적으로 피드백 할 수 있는 체계에 대한 연구를 수행한다. 연구결과: 현장조치 행동 매뉴얼의 재난 상황별로 임무 수행 프로세스를 지원하는 임무 모델과 이를 기반으로 구성되는 재난 대응 프로세스 모델 체계를 제시하였다. 개발된 모델에 기반하여 안전한국 훈련 시나리오 모델을 적용하였다. 결론: 재난 상황을 지원하는 재난 대응 프로세스 모델을 개발하였다. 이를 기반으로 현장 조치 행동매뉴얼이 작성되고, 안전한국 훈련 시나리오가 작성되면, 안전한국 훈련의 점검을 통하여 현장조치 행동매뉴얼의 재난 대응 프로세스가 지속적으로 개선될 수 있을 것이다.

수치지도를 이용한 연안재해지도 작성 방안 (The Methods of Coastal Disaster Mapping Using Digital Map)

  • 정종철
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2007
  • Natural hazards such as typhoon, flood, landslide affect both coastal and inland areas more often according to increasement of severe and unusual weather. To provide adequate coastal disaster mitigation strategies, coastal disaster prevention system using GIS is very useful. Application methods of digital map on this issue was discussed in this study. For developing of coastal disaster prevention system, the data structures related to disaster monitoring is needed to be revised for interdisciplinary framework. To improve the current coastal disaster mapping methods, GIS based new model for coastal disaster mapping was suggested. In this study, coastal GIS showed the attribute data and structures of coastal disaster mapping.

Two Models to Assess Fuzzy Risk of Natural Disaster in China

  • Chongfu, Huang
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 1997
  • China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

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재난발생 지역주민의 재난대비행위 영향요인: 혼합연구방법 (The Factors Affecting Disaster Preparedness Behaviors of People Residing in Disaster Area: A Mixed Methods Study)

  • 이지혜;한숙정
    • 한국보건간호학회지
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    • 제34권3호
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study investigates the disaster preparedness behaviors of people residing in disaster areas and the factors affecting such behaviors, by examining the application of a Health Belief Model. Methods: A mixed-method approach was used for this study. Local residents were surveyed in Gyeongju and Pohang, which had experienced earthquakes one to two years earlier. Quantitative data (N=233) were collected through a questionnaire and analyzed using t-test, one-way ANOVA, Scheffe test and multiple regression. Qualitative data (N=11) were collected through focus group and individual interviews, and evaluated through content analysis. Results: Disaster preparedness behaviors scored 7.04 out of 18 points, and factors that significantly affected disaster preparedness included cut to action, marriage status, experience of education and training related to disaster, benefit-barriers factors of disaster preparedness behaviors, and gender. The focus group and individual interviews confirmed the contents corresponding to each variable of the disaster preparedness behaviors and heal belief model. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that in order to induce disaster preparedness behaviors as well as education and training opportunities related to disaster relief, we need to examine cue to action of disaster preparedness behaviors, benefits, and barriers for motivating interventions.

Understanding the Current State of Deep Learning Application to Water-related Disaster Management in Developing Countries

  • Yusuff, Kareem Kola;Shiksa, Bastola;Park, Kidoo;Jung, Younghun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.145-145
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    • 2022
  • Availability of abundant water resources data in developing countries is a great concern that has hindered the adoption of deep learning techniques (DL) for disaster prevention and mitigation. On the contrary, over the last two decades, a sizeable amount of DL publication in disaster management emanated from developed countries with efficient data management systems. To understand the current state of DL adoption for solving water-related disaster management in developing countries, an extensive bibliometric review coupled with a theory-based analysis of related research documents is conducted from 2003 - 2022 using Web of Science, Scopus, VOSviewer software and PRISMA model. Results show that four major disasters - pluvial / fluvial flooding, land subsidence, drought and snow avalanche are the most prevalent. Also, recurrent flash floods and landslides caused by irregular rainfall pattern, abundant freshwater and mountainous terrains made India the only developing country with an impressive DL adoption rate of 50% publication count, thereby setting the pace for other developing countries. Further analysis indicates that economically-disadvantaged countries will experience a delay in DL implementation based on their Human Development Index (HDI) because DL implementation is capital-intensive. COVID-19 among other factors is identified as a driver of DL. Although, the Long Short Term Model (LSTM) model is the most frequently used, but optimal model performance is not limited to a certain model. Each DL model performs based on defined modelling objectives. Furthermore, effect of input data size shows no clear relationship with model performance while final model deployment in solving disaster problems in real-life scenarios is lacking. Therefore, data augmentation and transfer learning are recommended to solve data management problems. Intensive research, training, innovation, deployment using cheap web-based servers, APIs and nature-based solutions are encouraged to enhance disaster preparedness.

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Weibo Disaster Rumor Recognition Method Based on Adversarial Training and Stacked Structure

  • Diao, Lei;Tang, Zhan;Guo, Xuchao;Bai, Zhao;Lu, Shuhan;Li, Lin
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제16권10호
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    • pp.3211-3229
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    • 2022
  • To solve the problems existing in the process of Weibo disaster rumor recognition, such as lack of corpus, poor text standardization, difficult to learn semantic information, and simple semantic features of disaster rumor text, this paper takes Sina Weibo as the data source, constructs a dataset for Weibo disaster rumor recognition, and proposes a deep learning model BERT_AT_Stacked LSTM for Weibo disaster rumor recognition. First, add adversarial disturbance to the embedding vector of each word to generate adversarial samples to enhance the features of rumor text, and carry out adversarial training to solve the problem that the text features of disaster rumors are relatively single. Second, the BERT part obtains the word-level semantic information of each Weibo text and generates a hidden vector containing sentence-level feature information. Finally, the hidden complex semantic information of poorly-regulated Weibo texts is learned using a Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (Stacked LSTM) structure. The experimental results show that, compared with other comparative models, the model in this paper has more advantages in recognizing disaster rumors on Weibo, with an F1_Socre of 97.48%, and has been tested on an open general domain dataset, with an F1_Score of 94.59%, indicating that the model has better generalization.

안전취약계층을 위한 재난정보 및 대피지원 모델 실증 (Demonstration of Disaster Information and Evacuation Support Model for the Safety Vulnerable Groups)

  • 손민호;권일룡;정태호;이한준
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.465-486
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    • 2021
  • 연구목적: 대부분의 재난정보 시스템은 비장애인 중심이므로 재난대처능력이 상대적으로 취약한 장애인·노인·어린이 등 안전취약계층을 고려한 재난정보 전달 체계는 부족한 것이 현실이다. 장애인과 노인의 안전취약특성을 고려하여 재난정보 전달 및 대피지원 서비스를 구축하는데 IoT 기반의 통합관제 기술을 활용하는 서비스 제공을 통해서 정보화의 사각지대를 해소하고 장애인·노인의 재난 대응을 위한 맞춤형 재난정보 서비스를 구축하여 안전취약계층의 안전성을 향상시키는데 목적이 있다. 연구방법: 본 연구의 핵심이 되는 모델은 재난경보 전파 모델과 대피지원 모델이며, 장애인과 노인의 재난 상황 발생 시 행동특성을 반영하여 개발하였다. 재난정보 전파 모델은 IoT 기술을 이용하여 수집된 재난상황을 전파하며, 대피지원 모델은 지구자기장 기반의 측위기술을 활용하여 사용자의 실내위치를 파악하고 실내 대피경로 데이터를 기반으로 한 경로안내 등 안전취약계층의 행동특성을 반영한 맞춤형 서비스 제공을 통해 안전하게 대피할 수 있도록 도움을 주게 된다. 연구결과: 시범모델 실증은 실제 사용자를 대상으로 개발된 서비스를 사용해보도록하여 사용자 입장에서 대피경로 안내의 적합성, 서비스의 만족도 등 실내위치 정확도에 대한 효율성 등 정성적인 평가를 도출하였다. 결론: 모델 실증을 위하여 모바일 앱 안전취약계층을 위한 재난정보와 대피지원 서비스를 구축하였다. 재난상황을 화재상황으로 한정하여 장애우와 관련 분야 전문가를 통해 실증하였다. 재난정보전달과 대피지원의 적절성에서 "만족" 평가를 받았으며 시범모델의 특성상 기능 만족도와 사용자 UI는 "보통"으로 평가되었다. 이를 통해 본 연구에서 제시된 재난정보 및 대피지원 서비스는 안전취약계층에게 재난대피 골드타임을 놓치지 않고 보다 신속한 재난대피를 지원하는 것으로 평가되었다.

효과적인 분산 방재자원 관리 방안 (Efficient Methods for the Distributed Disaster Prevention Resources)

  • 이창열
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.294-304
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    • 2011
  • 방재자원은 재난 발생시 투입하는 인력, 물자, 장비, 시설 자원을 의미한다. 물자, 장비 자원은 평상시 내부적으로 관리되는 자원으로 신속하고, 적합한 자원을 투입하여 재난을 최소화하여야 한다. 그렇지만 현재 방재자원 관리는 시군구의 재난관리시스템과 중앙의 재난관리시스템으로 이원화되어 있으며, 정보의 갱신이 실시간으로 되어있지 않아서 적시에 적합한 자원을 투입하기에 어려운 상태이다. 본 연구에서는 시군구에 분산된 방재차원에 대한 효과적인 관리를 통하여 가시성을 확보함으로써 적시에 적합한 자원을 투입할 수 있는 모델을 제시하고 있다. 특히 적합한 자원을 신속하게 파악할 수 있게 방재자원을 분류하고, RFID 표준에 기반한 방재자원의 ID와 메타데이터 정보를 제시하고, 이를 기반으로 실시간으로 방재 차원을 관리할 수 있는 모텔을 제시하였다.