• Title/Summary/Keyword: Design Value Forecast

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Visualization, Economic Complexity Index, and Forecasting of South Korea International Trade Profile: A Time Series Approach

  • Dar, Qaiser Farooq;Dar, Gulbadin Farooq;Ma, Jin-Hee;Ahn, Young-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The recent growth of South Korean products in the international market is the benchmark for both developed as well as developing countries. According to the development index, the role of international trade is indeed crucial for the development of the national economy. However, the visualization of the international trade profile of the country is the prerequisite of governmental policy decision-makers and guidance for forecasting of foreign trade. Design/methodology - We have utilized data visualization techniques in order to visualize the import & export product space and trade partners of South Korea. Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) were used to identify the Korean international trade diversification, whereas the time series approach is used to forecast the economy and foreign trade variables. Findings - Our results show that Chine, U.S, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan are the leading trade partners of Korea. Overall, the ECI of South Korea is growing significantly as compared to China, Hong Kong, and other developed countries of the world. The expected values of total import and export volume of South Korea are approximately US$535.21 and US$ 781.23B, with the balance of trade US$ 254.02B in 2025. It was also observed from our analysis that imports & exports are equally substantial to the GDP of Korea and have a significant correlation with GDP, GDP per capita, and ECI. Originality/value - To maintain the growth rate of international trade and efficient competitor for the trade partners, we have visualized the South Korea trade profile, which provides the information of significant export and import products as well as main trade partners and forecasting.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Runoff Model Parameter for the Optimal Design of Hydrologic Structures (수공구조물의 적정설계를 위한 유출모형 매개변수의 민감도 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Mun-Mo;Yeo, Woon-Kwang
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.755-758
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    • 2008
  • Currently, the increased run-off and the shortened arrival time are one of the causes of the city environmental disasters in urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to properly design the hydrologic structures, but it is very difficult to forecast the values necessary to design from the planning stage. Moreover, as the parameter is changed due to the urban development, it is difficult not only to analyze the run-off influences but also to find the related studies and literatures. The purpose of this study is to utilize the results as the important basic data of the hydrologic structures, its proper design and run-off influences through the sensibility analysis of the model parameter variables. In this study, the absolute and relative sensibility analysis method were used to find out the correlation through the sensibility analysis of the topology and hydrology parameters. Especially, in this study, the changes in the run-off amount and volume were calculated according to increase/decrease in CN, the coefficient of discharge, and the empirical formula is prepared and proposed through the regressive analysis among the parameters. In the meantime, the parameter sensibility analysis was performed through the simulation HEC-HMS that is used and available in Korea. From the results of this study, it was found that the run-off amount is increased about by 10% when the CN value is increased by 5% before and after the development through the HEC-HMS simulation and data analysis. As long as there will be additional data collection analysis and result verification, and continuous further studies to find out the parameters proper to the domestic circumstances, it is expected to considerably contribute to the proper design of the hydrologic structures with respect to the ungauged basin.

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An Analysis of the Traffic Noise Measurement Plans of 'Apartment Complexes' - A Case on the North Riverside Expressway in Seoul - ('아파트단지' 교통소음측정방안에 관한 연구 - 강북 강변도로 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Jun Mo;Lee, Sung Kyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1D
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2006
  • This study conducts a theoretical research on road traffic noise. Also, the domestic road noise forecast models were compared each other and analyzed with advanced countries' models to indicate the application possibility and problems. For the establishment of a general formula, we compared the forecasted value with the actual value applied in the formula proposed by the National Environment Institute, and examined the necessary improvement of the domestic road traffic noise forecast model. Also, a regression model was built to examine the relationship between traffic factors and noise. The traffic volume and speed are the main traffic factors used in this formula to affect the noise. From the results, it was found that the speed had a closer relationship with the noise rather than the traffic volume. Therefore, to decrease road noise, it is more important to control traffic speed. The spatial effect of road traffic noise within the apartment complexes was used in the case study to derive location-specific adjustment values. We surveyed the road traffic noise of three apartment complexes, and found that the road traffic noise within each complex was affected at plane level as well as at three-dimensionally. In other words, as the distance from the sound origin grows farther, noise level decreases. Also, it was found that noise increases as heigt goes up, but drops when the height goes beyond a certain level, and that the effect of noise decreases if there are obstacles along the path of the noise direction. Therefore, apartment site design should be done with consideration of the effects of noise in the future.

A study on the evaluation of and demand forecasting for real estate using simple additive weighting model: The case of clothing stores for babies and children in the Bundang area

  • Ryu, Tae-Chang;Lee, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2012
  • Purpose - This study was conducted under the assumption that brand A, a store of company Z of Pangyo, with a new store at Pangyo station is targeting the Bundang-gu area of the newly developed city of Seongnam. Research design, data, methodology - As a result of demand forecasting using geometric series models, an extrapolation of past trends provided the coefficient estimates, without utilizing regression analysis on a constant increase in children's wear, for which the population size and estimated parameter were required. Results - Demand forecasting on the basis of past trends indicates the likelihood that sales of discount stores in the Bundang area, where brand A currently has a presence, would fetch a higher estimated value than that of the average discount store in the country during 2015. If past trends persist, future sales of operational stores are likely to increase. Conclusions - In evaluating location using the simple weighting model, Seohyun Lotte Mart obtained a high rating amongst new stores in Pangyo, on the basis of accessibility, demand class, and existing stores. Therefore, when opening a new counter at a relevant store, a positive effect can be predicted.

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A Study on the changes the electronic game by the times (전자게임의 시대별 변천과정에 관한 연구)

  • 은광하;이동연
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2002
  • Nowadays, in accordance with our information-oriented society, industries based on digital Technology have been quickly developing all over the world. This industryhas been playing an important role in improving the quality of peoples'lives so far and will continue to do so, both culturally and socially through industrial and economic aspects. Particularly, the electronic game, on e of the representatives, is providing an intensive value-added segment to the entertainment industry. Games are deeply rooted in people's lives and have a big influence on the industry, society and culture, even our life styles. Consequently, this study is investigating change the electronic game by the times and analyzing the game entity. It is based on the research and analysis of the transition of electronic games in each era. From now on, we will look forward, using previous material in an attempt to forecast the right direction of electronic game design in the future.

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A Study on the Design Management & Future Design Strategy of Philips (Philips사의 디자인경영 및 미래디자인 전략에 대한 연구)

  • 이해묵
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2000
  • Design becomes a source of new competitive power in the boundless global market so-called globalization. The competitive power in business was lied in the technology in 70's and the design was understood as a styling or graphic means. However, the design has become more important means to get the competitive power in business since 1980. World businesses have found the fact that it has a super competitive power to make the product's performance as well as its dignity rather than it is to determine the product's external view or color. The change of design policy in Phillips, one of the world's leading producers of electronic products, is not much different. Design manager's power was limited until 70's. However, Phillips has focused its business strategy on the higher competitive power since 1980 and they welcomed Robert Blaich, vice president of design and development at Herman Miller Inc., to be a member of the company, expanding the importance of design along with restructure while working on the globalization. Meanwhile, Stefano Marzano, a Senior Director in 90's, established a high design concept, working on the strategic futures to get customer-oriented and for successful commercialization. The vision of the future developed over 3 years until 1996 was to forecast 10 years coming up and create a new value while achieving the business target through the design as an innovative design in bracing for the information network era.

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A Study on the Cultural Characteristics of the Design Material (디자인재료의 문화적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 박종찬
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 1998
  • This study is what tried to examine the importance of material in industrial design. Then, if planning is to start of product design, the use of material is the last step to complete design. Design material has existed from the time before mankind were born, and the new material which is useful for human beings is developing rapidly. It is no exaggeration to say that our environment is the aggregation of material which was surrounded with us. Then, material has the timely, spatial and cultural feature as well as physical feature. Besides, all sorts of functions of communicating information are being contained in accordance with the character of material. The outside surface of material has the function to develop the sense organ of human beings. This study examines 4 kinds of cultural features in design materials and shown by findings is as follows : Rrst is the technical progressivity to lead new Design form. Second is the symbolic nature to perform the communication function. Third is the sensible attribute to develop surface effect of Design material. Fourth is the future-oriented nature to convince the future such as new material and technology etc. Thus, so as to perform the competitive product design, it is important to grasp the harmony between material and design, structure and processing, and the substantial meaning that the material has and apply them properly, above all. Because the discovery of material will be the measure to forecast future design.

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Groundwater flow Analysis Using MODFLOW in the Tunnel (MODFLOW를 이용한 터널의 지하수 유동해석)

  • Hue, Chang-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.129-142
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the conduct of underground water flow system with 3 dimensions is interpreted in order to examine closely the actual condition regarding the flow of the underground water which is forecast from the tunnel segment and the interpretation result which selects the design and the construction technique of the tunnel segment was applied. Also, an obstacle to construct that relates with the underground water flow in construction duration in advance will be able to apply with information that is necessary in order to establish the countermeasure. The objective tunnel is the BEOPGI tunnel segment that is 2 parallel tunnels that are a one-way 2 lane and the parameters of the MODFLOW model executing the boring investigation and the permeability examination were presumed. The underground water flow of the excavation tunnel inside was interpreted by the MODFLOW model using the parameters which is presumed and two values which compared with calculated value and observed value are the same almost. Also, when the underground water discharge quantify that followed in tunnel excavation tries to compare, the underground water total discharge quantity from tunnel point of start until destination was presumed as 0.0269㎥/day/$m^2$.

Comparative Analysis of Estimation of Demand for Urban Railway Stations and Forecast of Transportation Facilities Size Prediction (도시철도역 이용수요 추정 및 이동편의시설 규모 예측 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Lee, Sang Hwa;Bae, Choon Bong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2019
  • The size of the subway entrance should be calculated according to the user's demand, but Korea has the same size for each entrance by applying a uniform value. Recently, the installation of mobile convenience facilities such as escalators, elevators, etc. is mandated by the traffic weakness promotion law, but it is inconvenient to use the existing stations because it is mainly arranged in the place where it can be installed regardless of user demand. This study aims to establish a model for estimating the size of mobile convenience facilities by predicting the use demand of each station entrance so that the location and size of mobile facilities can be reflected in the design or construction of the station. To this end, a multiple regression model was established to forecast daily demand by utilizing the demand for getting on and off by station and the building association area for each purpose around the railway station. The actual data of Dongdaemun and Jonggak Stations were used to verify the estimated model. In addition, the escalator installation scale was compared / analyzed by doorway using domestic and overseas escalator equations. As a result, it was more accurate to estimate the usage demand for a single station. Also, Jonggak Station has an up and down escalator installed at exit 1, but it was analyzed that it is appropriate to install at exit 4. This study is an advanced form of the essay model for estimating the users of the entrance and exit users of urban railway stations published in 2018. In addition, it seems to be the basis of the current escalator installation criteria.

Development of Real-Time Forecasting System of Marine Environmental Information for Ship Routing (항해지원을 위한 해양환경정보 실시간 예보시스템 개발)

  • Hong Keyyong;Shin Seung-Ho;Song Museok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2005
  • A marine environmental information system (MEIS) useful for optimal route planning of ships running in the ocean was developed. Utilizing the simulated marine environmental data produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts based on global environmental data observed by satellites, the real-time forecast and long-term statistics of marine environments around planned and probable ship routes are provided. The MEIS consists of a land-based data acquisition and analysis system(MEIS-Center) and a onboard information display system(MEIS-Ship) for graphic description of marine information and optimal route planning of ships. Also, it uses of satellite communication system for data transfer. The marine environmental components of winds, waves, air pressures and storms are provided, in which winds are described by speed and direction and waves are expressed in terms of height, direction and period for both of wind waves and swells. The real-time information is characterized by 0.5° resolution, 10 day forecast in 6 hour interval and daily update. The statistic information of monthly average and maximum value expected for a return period is featured by 1.5° resolution and based on 15 year database. The MEIS-Ship include an editing tool for route simulation and the forecasting and statistic information on planned routes can be displayed in graph or table. The MEIS enables for navigators to design an optimal navigational route that minimizes probable risk and operational cost.

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