• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2015

In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.103-115
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• 2000

The formation of brown-colored precipitates is one of the serious problems frequently encountered in the development and supply of groundwater in Korea, because by it the water exceeds the drinking water standard in terms of color. taste. turbidity and dissolved iron concentration and of often results in scaling problem within the water supplying system. In groundwaters from the Pajoo area, brown precipitates are typically formed in a few hours after pumping-out. In this paper we examine the process of the brown precipitates' formation using the equilibrium thermodynamic and kinetic approaches, in order to understand the origin and geochemical pathway of the generation of turbidity in groundwater. The results of this study are used to suggest not only the proper pumping technique to minimize the formation of precipitates but also the optimal design of water treatment methods to improve the water quality. The bed-rock groundwater in the Pajoo area belongs to the Ca-$HCO_3$type that was evolved through water/rock (gneiss) interaction. Based on SEM-EDS and XRD analyses, the precipitates are identified as an amorphous, Fe-bearing oxides or hydroxides. By the use of multi-step filtration with pore sizes of 6, 4, 1, 0.45 and 0.2 $\mu\textrm{m}$, the precipitates mostly fall in the colloidal size (1 to 0.45 $\mu\textrm{m}$) but are concentrated (about 81%) in the range of 1 to 6 $\mu\textrm{m}$in teams of mass (weight) distribution. Large amounts of dissolved iron were possibly originated from dissolution of clinochlore in cataclasite which contains high amounts of Fe (up to 3 wt.%). The calculation of saturation index (using a computer code PHREEQC), as well as the examination of pH-Eh stability relations, also indicate that the final precipitates are Fe-oxy-hydroxide that is formed by the change of water chemistry (mainly, oxidation) due to the exposure to oxygen during the pumping-out of Fe(II)-bearing, reduced groundwater. After pumping-out, the groundwater shows the progressive decreases of pH, DO and alkalinity with elapsed time. However, turbidity increases and then decreases with time. The decrease of dissolved Fe concentration as a function of elapsed time after pumping-out is expressed as a regression equation Fe(II)=10.l exp(-0.0009t). The oxidation reaction due to the influx of free oxygen during the pumping and storage of groundwater results in the formation of brown precipitates, which is dependent on time, $Po_2$and pH. In order to obtain drinkable water quality, therefore, the precipitates should be removed by filtering after the stepwise storage and aeration in tanks with sufficient volume for sufficient time. Particle size distribution data also suggest that step-wise filtration would be cost-effective. To minimize the scaling within wells, the continued (if possible) pumping within the optimum pumping rate is recommended because this technique will be most effective for minimizing the mixing between deep Fe(II)-rich water and shallow $O_2$-rich water. The simultaneous pumping of shallow $O_2$-rich water in different wells is also recommended.

• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.8-15
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• 1995

The reliable measurement of metal in biological media in human body is one of critical indicators for the proper evaluation of its toxic effect on human health. Recently in Korea the necessity of quality assurance of measurement in occupational health and occupational hygiene fields brought out regulatory quality control program. Lead is often used as a standard metal for the program in both fields of occupational health and hygiene. During last 20 years lead poisoning was prevalent in Korea and still is one of main heavy metal poisoning and the capability of the measurement of blood lead is one of prerequisites for institute of specialized occupational health in Korea. Furthermore blood lead is most important indicator to evaluate lead burden of human exposure to lead and the reliable and accurate analysis is most needed whenever possible. To evaluate the extent of the interlaboratory differences of blood lead measurement in several well-known institute specialized in occupational health in Korea, authors prepared 68 blood samples from two storage battery industries and all samples were divided into samples with 2 ml. One set of 68 samples were analyzed by authors's laboratory(Soonchunhyang University Institute of Industrial Medicine: SIIM) and 40 samples of other set were analyzed by C University Institute of Industrial Medicine(CIIM) and the rest 28 samples of other set were analyzed by Japanese institute(K Occupational Health Center:KOHC). Authors also prepared test bovine samples which were obtained from Japanese Federation of Occupational Health Organization (JFOHO) for quality control. Authors selected 2 other well-known occupational health laboratories and one laboratory specialized for instrumental analysis. A total of 6 laboratories joined the interlaboratory comparison of blood lead measurement and the results obtained were as follows: 1. There was no significant difference in average blood lead between SIIM and CIIM in different group of blood lead concentration, and the relative standard deviation of two laboratories was less than 3.0%. On the other hand, there was also no significant difference of average blood lead between SIIM and KOHC with relative standard deviation of 6.84% as maximum. 2. Taking less than 15% difference of mean or less than 6 ug/dl difference in below 40 ug/dl in whole blood as a criteria of agreement of measurement between two laboratories, agreement rates were 87.5%(35/40) and 78.6%(22/28) between SIIM and CIIM, SIIM and KOHC respectively. 3. The correlation of blood lead between SIIM and CIIM was 0.975 (p=0.0001) and the regression equation was SIIM = 2.19 + 0.9243 ClIM, whereas the correlation between SUM and KOHC was O.965(p=0.0001) with the equation of SIIM = 1.91 + 0.9794 KOHC. 4. Taking the reference value as a dependent variable and each of 6 laboratories's measurement value as a independent variable, the determination coefficient($R^2$) of simple regression equations of blood lead measurement for bovine test samples were very high($R^2>0.99$), and the regression coefficient(${\beta}$) was between 0.972 and 1.15 which indicated fairly good agreement of measurement results.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.29 no.4 s.55
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• pp.747-764
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• 1996

This study intended to obtain an useful information for health management of lead exposed workers and determine biological monitoring interval in early period of exposure by measuring the lead exposure indices and work duration in all male workers (n=433 persons) exposed less than 1 year in 6 storage battery industries and in 49 males who are not exposed to lead as control. The examined variables were blood lead concentration (PBB), Zinc-protoporphyrin concentration (ZPP), Hemoglobin (HB) and personal history; also measured lead concentration in air (PBA) in the workplace. According to the geometric mean of lead concentration in the air, the factories were grouped into three categories: A; When it is below $0.05mg/m^3$, B; When it is between 0.05 and $0.10mg/m^3$, and C; When it is above $0.10mg/m^3$. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The means of blood lead concentration (PBB), ZPP concentration and hemoglobin(HB) in all male workers exposed to lead less than 1 year in storage battery industries were $29.5{\pm}12.4{\mu}g/100ml,\;52.9{\pm}30.0{\mu}g/100ml\;and\;15.2{\pm}1.1\;gm/100ml$. 2. The means of blood lead concentration (PBB), ZPP concentration and hemoglobin(HB) in control group were $5.8{\pm}1.6{\mu}g/100ml,\;30.8{\pm}12.7{\mu}g/100ml\;and\;15.7{\pm}1.6{\mu}g/100ml$, being much lower than that of study group exposed to lead. 3. The means of blood lead concentration and ZPP concentration among group A were $21.9{\pm}7.6{\mu}g/100,\;41.4{\pm}12.6{\mu}g/100ml$ ; those of group B were $29.8{\pm}11.6{\mu}g/100,\;52.6{\pm}27.9{\mu}g/100ml$ ; those of group C were $37.2{\pm}13.5{\mu}g/100,\;66.3{\pm}40.7{\mu}g/100ml$. Significant differences were found among three factory group(P<0.01) that was classified by the geometric mean of lead concentration in the air, group A being the lowest. 4. The mean of blood lead concentration of workers who have different work duration (month) was as follows ; When the work duration was $1\sim2$ month, it was $24.1{\pm}12.4{\mu}g/100ml$, ; When the work duration was $3\sim4$ month, it was $29.2{\pm}13.4{\mu}g/100ml$ ; and it was $28.9\sim34.5{\mu}g/100ml$ for the workers who had longer work duration than other. Significant differences were found among work duration group(P<0.05). 5. The mean of ZPP concentration of workers who have different work duration (month) was as follows ; When the work duration was $1\sim2$ month, it was $40.6{\pm}18.0{\mu}g/100ml$, ; When the work duration was $3\sim4$ month, it was $53.4{\pm}38.4{\mu}g/100ml$ ; and it was $51.5\sim60.4{\mu}g/100ml$ for the workers who had longer work duration than other. Significant differences were found among work duration group(P<0.05). 6. Among total workers(433 person), 18.2% had PBB concentration higher than $40{\mu}g/100ml$ and 7.1% had ZPP concentration higher than $100{\mu}g/100ml$ ; In workers of factory group A, those were 0.9% and 0.0% ; In workers of factory group B, those were 17.1% and 6.9% ; In workers of factory group C, those were 39.4% and 15.4%. 7. The proportions of total workers(433 person) with blood lead concentration lower than $25{\mu}g/100ml$ and ZPP concentration lower than $50{\mu}g/100ml$ were 39.7% and 61.9%, respectively ; In workers of factory group A, those were 65.5% and 82.3% : In workers of factory group B, those were 36.1% and 60.2% ; In workers of factory group C, those were 19.2% and 43.3%. 8. Blood lead concentration (r=0.177, P<0.01), ZPP concentration (r=0.135, P<0.01), log ZPP (r=0.170, P<0.01) and hemoglobin (r=0.096, P<0.05) showed statistically significant correlation with work duration (month). ZPP concentration (r=0.612, P<0.01) and log ZPP (r=0.614, P<0.01) showed statistically significant correlation with blood lead concentration 9. The slopes of simple linear regression between work duration(month, independent variable) and blood lead concentration (dependent variable) in workplace with low air concentration of lead was less steeper than that of poor working condition with high geometric mean air concentration of lead. The study result indicates that new employees should be provided with biological monitoring including blood lead concentration test and education about personal hygiene and work place management within $3\sim4$ month.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.141-170
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• 2010

User created content (UCC) is created and shared by common users on line. From the user's perspective, the increase of UCCs has led to an expansion of alternative means of communications, while from the business perspective UCCs have formed an environment in which an abundant amount of new contents can be produced. Despite outward quantitative growth, however, many aspects of UCCs do not meet the expectations of general users in terms of quality, and this can be observed through pirated contents and user-copied contents. The purpose of this research is to investigate effective methods for fostering production of creative user-generated content. This study proposes two core elements, namely, reward and motivation, which are believed to enhance content creativity as well as the mediating factor and users' committement, which will be effective for bridging the increasing motivation and content creativity. Based on this perspective, this research takes an in-depth look at issues related to constructing the dimensions of reward and motivation in UCC services for creative content product, which are identified in three phases. First, three dimensions of rewards have been proposed: task dimension, social dimension, and organizational dimention. The task dimension rewards are related to the inherent characteristics of a task such as writing blog articles and pasting photos. Four concrete ways of providing task-related rewards in UCC environments are suggested in this study, which include skill variety, task significance, task identity, and autonomy. The social dimensioni rewards are related to the connected relationships among users. The organizational dimension consists of monetary payoff and recognition from others. Second, the two types of motivations are suggested to be affected by the diverse rewards schemes: intrinsic motivation and extrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation occurs when people create new UCC contents for its' own sake, whereas extrinsic motivation occurs when people create new contents for other purposes such as fame and money. Third, commitments are suggested to work as important mediating variables between motivation and content creativity. We believe commitments are especially important in online environments because they have been found to exert stronger impacts on the Internet users than other relevant factors do. Two types of commitments are suggested in this study: emotional commitment and continuity commitment. Finally, content creativity is proposed as the final dependent variable in this study. We provide a systematic method to measure the creativity of UCC content based on the prior studies in creativity measurement. The method includes expert evaluation of blog pages posted by the Internet users. In order to test the theoretical model of our study, 133 active blog users were recruited to participate in a group discussion as well as a survey. They were asked to fill out a questionnaire on their commitment, motivation and rewards of creating UCC contents. At the same time, their creativity was measured by independent experts using Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking. Finally, two independent users visited the study participants' blog pages and evaluated their content creativity using the Creative Products Semantic Scale. All the data were compiled and analyzed through structural equation modeling. We first conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the measurement model of our research. It was found that measures used in our study satisfied the requirement of reliability, convergent validity as well as discriminant validity. Given the fact that our measurement model is valid and reliable, we proceeded to conduct a structural model analysis. The results indicated that all the variables in our model had higher than necessary explanatory powers in terms of R-square values. The study results identified several important reward shemes. First of all, skill variety, task importance, task identity, and automony were all found to have significant influences on the intrinsic motivation of creating UCC contents. Also, the relationship with other users was found to have strong influences upon both intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. Finally, the opportunity to get recognition for their UCC work was found to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation of UCC users. However, different from our expectation, monetary compensation was found not to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation. It was also found that commitment was an important mediating factor in UCC environment between motivation and content creativity. A more fully mediating model was found to have the highest explanation power compared to no-mediation or partially mediated models. This paper ends with implications of the study results. First, from the theoretical perspective this study proposes and empirically validates the commitment as an important mediating factor between motivation and content creativity. This result reflects the characteristics of online environment in which the UCC creation activities occur voluntarily. Second, from the practical perspective this study proposes several concrete reward factors that are germane to the UCC environment, and their effectiveness to the content creativity is estimated. In addition to the quantitive results of relative importance of the reward factrs, this study also proposes concrete ways to provide the rewards in the UCC environment based on the FGI data that are collected after our participants finish asnwering survey questions. Finally, from the methodological perspective, this study suggests and implements a way to measure the UCC content creativity independently from the content generators' creativity, which can be used later by future research on UCC creativity. In sum, this study proposes and validates important reward features and their relations to the motivation, commitment, and the content creativity in UCC environment, which is believed to be one of the most important factors for the success of UCC and Web 2.0. As such, this study can provide significant theoretical as well as practical bases for fostering creativity in UCC contents.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.35-55
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• 2013

Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

• Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.361-373
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• 2015

This study was carried out to evaluate the antioxidant and antibacterial activities of Glycyrriza uralensis Fisher (Jecheon, Korea) extracts obtained by various extraction conditions (85% ethanol, heating temperatures and times), and to establish the optimal extraction condition of G. uralensis for the application as cosmetic ingredients. The extracts obtained under different conditions were concentrated and made in the powdered (sample-1) and were the crude extract solutions without concentration (sample-2). The antioxidant effects were determined by free radical scavenging activity ($FSC_{50}$), ROS scavenging activity ($OSC_{50}$), and cellular protective effects. Antibacterial activity was determined by minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) on human skin flora. DPPH free radical scavenging activity of sample-1 ($100{\mu}g/mL$) was 10% higher in group extracted for 6 h than 12 h, but sample-2 didn't show any significant differences. The extraction yield extracted with same temperature for 12 h was 2.6 times higher than 6 h, but total flavonoid content was 1.1 times higher. These results indicated that total flavonoid content hardly increased with increasing extraction time. Free radical scavenging activity, ROS scavenging activity and cellular protective effects were not dependent on the yield of extraction, but total flavonoid content of extraction. Antibacterial activity on three skin flora (S. aureus, B. subtilis, P. acnes)of sample-1 in different extraction conditions were evaluated on same concentration, and the group extracted at 25 and $40^{\circ}C$ showed 16 times higher than methyl paraben ($2,500{\mu}g/mL$). In conclusion, 85% ethanol extracts of G. uralensis extracted at $40^{\circ}C$ for 6 h showed the highest antioxidant and antibacterial activity. These results indicate that the extraction condition is important to be optimized by comprehensive evaluation of extraction yield with various conditions, yield of active component, and activity test with concentrations, and activity of 100% extract, for manufacturing process of products.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.17-23
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• 1976

In order to investigate the fate of nitrogen in the paddy soil, Suchang, Hwasoon and Susan soil which have different properties, were treated with several nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonium chloride, ammonium sulfate, urea and SCU (sulfur-coated urea), and incubated under water-logged condition in $30^{\circ}C$ incubator. $NH_4-N$, $NO_3-N$, $Fe^{++}$ and pH in soil and stagnant water, were determined at 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 days after incubation. The obtained results were summarized as follows: 1. The effect of rising temperature was increased in order of Hwasoon>Suchang>Susan and the effect of air drying soil was risen in order of Susan>Hwasoon>Suchang, while the rate of ammonication was in order of Susan>Suchang>Hwasoon. 2. The changes of $NH_4-N$ in stagnant water was dependent upon the nitrogen concentration of $NH_4Cl$ and $(NH_4)SO_4$ plat was high and decreased after 30 days incubation, but increased after 40 days and then decreased again. In contrast with the above, $NH_4-N$ concentration of urea and SCU plot was low but the change showed slightly through the incubation period. 3. Accumulation of $NH_4-N$ in the oxidative layer of the $NH_4Cl$ and $(NH_4)_2SO_4$ plot was higher than that of urea and SCU plot and $NH_4-N$ content was decreased with the incubation period. The change of $NH_4-N$ in the reductive layer showed the same pattern. 4. The changes of $NO_3-N$ in the stagnant water were different according to soil properties and nitrogen fertilizer. $NO_3-N$ concentration in stagnant water of urea and SCU plot was higher than in the $NH_4-Cl$ $(NH_4)_2SO_4$ plot and nearly disappeared after 30 to 40 days incubation. 5. The $NO_3-N$ concentration in the oxidative layer of soil was higher than reductive layer. The pattern of change was different in accordance with soil properties and nitrogen fertilizers. In general, nitrification in urea and SCU plot was more increased than $(NH_4)_2SO_4$ plot. In reductive layer, the concentration of $NO_3-N$ was very low until 30 days incubation and thereafter increased slightly. 6. Upon the concentration of $NH_4-N$ and $NO_3-N$ in stagnant water and soil, it was assumed that denitification of urea and SCU plot was higher than $NH_4Cl$ and $(NH_4)_2SO_4$ plot and denitrified nitrogen in incubation period was above 50%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-32
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• 2018

In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-22
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• 2021

Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA), which analyzes sentiment based on aspects that appear in the text, is drawing attention because it can be used in various business industries. ABSA is a study that analyzes sentiment by aspects for multiple aspects that a text has. It is being studied in various forms depending on the purpose, such as analyzing all targets or just aspects and sentiments. Here, the aspect refers to the property of a target, and the target refers to the text that causes the sentiment. For example, for restaurant reviews, you could set the aspect into food taste, food price, quality of service, mood of the restaurant, etc. Also, if there is a review that says, "The pasta was delicious, but the salad was not," the words "steak" and "salad," which are directly mentioned in the sentence, become the "target." So far, in ABSA, most studies have analyzed sentiment only based on aspects or targets. However, even with the same aspects or targets, sentiment analysis may be inaccurate. Instances would be when aspects or sentiment are divided or when sentiment exists without a target. For example, sentences like, "Pizza and the salad were good, but the steak was disappointing." Although the aspect of this sentence is limited to "food," conflicting sentiments coexist. In addition, in the case of sentences such as "Shrimp was delicious, but the price was extravagant," although the target here is "shrimp," there are opposite sentiments coexisting that are dependent on the aspect. Finally, in sentences like "The food arrived too late and is cold now." there is no target (NULL), but it transmits a negative sentiment toward the aspect "service." Like this, failure to consider both aspects and targets - when sentiment or aspect is divided or when sentiment exists without a target - creates a dual dependency problem. To address this problem, this research analyzes sentiment by considering both aspects and targets (Target-Aspect-Sentiment Detection, hereby TASD). This study detected the limitations of existing research in the field of TASD: local contexts are not fully captured, and the number of epochs and batch size dramatically lowers the F1-score. The current model excels in spotting overall context and relations between each word. However, it struggles with phrases in the local context and is relatively slow when learning. Therefore, this study tries to improve the model's performance. To achieve the objective of this research, we additionally used auxiliary loss in aspect-sentiment classification by constructing CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) layers parallel to existing models. If existing models have analyzed aspect-sentiment through BERT encoding, Pooler, and Linear layers, this research added CNN layer-adaptive average pooling to existing models, and learning was progressed by adding additional loss values for aspect-sentiment to existing loss. In other words, when learning, the auxiliary loss, computed through CNN layers, allowed the local context to be captured more fitted. After learning, the model is designed to do aspect-sentiment analysis through the existing method. To evaluate the performance of this model, two datasets, SemEval-2015 task 12 and SemEval-2016 task 5, were used and the f1-score increased compared to the existing models. When the batch was 8 and epoch was 5, the difference was largest between the F1-score of existing models and this study with 29 and 45, respectively. Even when batch and epoch were adjusted, the F1-scores were higher than the existing models. It can be said that even when the batch and epoch numbers were small, they can be learned effectively compared to the existing models. Therefore, it can be useful in situations where resources are limited. Through this study, aspect-based sentiments can be more accurately analyzed. Through various uses in business, such as development or establishing marketing strategies, both consumers and sellers will be able to make efficient decisions. In addition, it is believed that the model can be fully learned and utilized by small businesses, those that do not have much data, given that they use a pre-training model and recorded a relatively high F1-score even with limited resources.