• 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2007.10a
• /
• pp.48-74
• /
• 2007

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.36-52
• /
• 2009

Demographic change is the best indicator to be able to show the rural change exactly and thus becomes the factor to be considered by all means in the setting-up process of the rural development policy. First of all, this paper is concerned with the two main themes, depopulation and aging process of Goryeong-gun(county), after a brief consideration of the demographic trends in rural areas of Korea. And then it will analyze the population structures of 8 administrative districts of Goryeong-gun(1 Eub, 7 Myeons) to reveal the areal differentiation of rural demographic change. Like other rural areas in Korea, Goryeong-gun experienced a sharp depopulation and aging during last several decades, and it represents typical rural backward areas in Korea. But within the same county, the process of population change differs from district to district. On the basis of several demographic indicators, 8 administrative districts(Eub and Myeons) in Goryeong-gun can be classified into 4 types of population change, namely 'type with stagnant population' like Goryeong-eub, 'type with increasing population' like Dasan-myeon, 'type with decreasing population' like Seongsan-myeon Gaejin-myeon Sangrim-myeon, 'type with rapidly decreasing population' like Deokgok-myeon Unsu-myeon Ugok-myeon. It highlights the need to develop differentiated rural policies according to relevant regional conditions.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.37-63
• /
• 2010

Public expenditures on long-term care are a matter of concern for Korea as in many other countries. The expenditure is expected to accelerate and to put pressure on public budgets, adding to that arising from insufficient retirement schemes and other forms of social spending. This study tried to foresee how much health care spending could increase in the future considering demographic and non-demographic factors as the drivers of expenditure. Previous projections of future long-term expenditure were mainly based on a given relation between spending and age structure. However, although demographic factors will surely put upward pressure on long-term care costs, other non-demographic factors, such as labor cost increase and availability of informal care, should be taken into account as well. Also, the possibility of dynamic link between health status and longevity gains needs to be considered. The model in this study is cell-base and consists of three main parts. The first part estimated the numbers of elderly people with different levels of health status by age group, gender, household type. The second part estimated the levels of long-term care services required, by attaching a probability of receiving long-term care services to each cell using from the sample from current year. The third part of the model estimated long-term care expenditure, along the demographic and non-demographic factors' change in various scenarios. Public spending on long-term care could rise from the current level of 0.2~0.3% of GDP to around 0.44~2.30% by 2040.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.53-66
• /
• 1986

This study was carried out to determine the mortality level and it's related demographic factors in Korea since 1942. In order to clarify the changes in structure of mortality and the causes of death, the indices such as Crude Death Rate(CDR) or Life Expectancy at Birth were used. The author examined the mortality levels and major causes of death and performed the relevant demographic analysis. The followings are the summary of this study: 1. The CDR declined rapidly till 1960's. Such improvement slowed down from 1960's to mid 1970's and stabilized afterwards. It was due to the change of age composition, namely, the increase of aging population. 2. The Life Expectancy at Birth increased rapidly till mid 1960's. But elongation of the Life Expectancy slowed down after then. Especially in female, it slowed down more. 3. Changing patterns of major causes of death summarize that, till 1960's infectious diseases were major causes of death, but recently non-infectious diseases like chronic degenerative diseases became more prevalent. 4. The elongation of Life Expectancy at Birth till mid 1960's was mainly resulted by $_4{q}_1$. But the major contributing factor of the improvement in Life Expectancy at Birth in female is he reduction of $_$\infty${q}_{50}$ recently. In male, the improvement in Life Expectancy at Birth is due to the reduction of $_1{q}_0$. recently. 5. The age-sex-specific mortality rates revealed that $_n{q}_x$ declined in common throughout the period, even though there exists some variability of their ranges as age changes. Consequently, this study seems to suggest that the demographic transition in Korea occurred between late 1960's and early 1970's. In other words, the rapid change before late 1960's was eased in early 1970's. The slow change in this period caused a stabilizing pattern. Therefore, the population change is expected to be stabilized continuously.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.23-56
• /
• 2023

To investigate the causes of Korea's growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-life-related choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea's high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea's growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea's experience.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.95-102
• /
• 2023

This study aims to empirically verify the moderating effect of population drop on the relationship between demographic changes and crime decline in local cities facing population decline in Korea. The study employs changes in the population of young adults, men, elderly, foreign residents, and population movement as factors of demographic changes, including types of the city as a control variable in the research model. The rate of change in population drop is used as a moderator variable and the rate of change in crime decline as a dependent variable. Data are collected from 155 cities with declining populations from 2010 to 2022 through KOSIS, the National Statistics Portal, and information disclosure requests. Data collected are analyzed using moderated regression analysis. In the first and second stages of the analysis, they show that changes in the population of young adults, population movement, foreign people, population drop, and the type of city affect the change in crime. Moderated regression analysis shows that only the interaction terms among changes in the population of young adults, changes in population movement, and changes in the population of foreigners and the population drop affects change in crime significantly.

• Animal Systematics, Evolution and Diversity
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.279-290
• /
• 2012

Plecoglossus altivelis (ayu) is an amphidromous fish widely distributed in Northeastern Asia from the East China Sea to the northern Japanese coastal waters, encompassing the Korean Peninsula within its range. The shore lines of northeastern region in Asia have severely fluctuated following glaciations in the Quaternary. In the present study, we investigate the population genetic structure and historical demographic change of P. altivelis at a population level in East Asia. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) based on 244 mitochondrial control region DNA sequences clearly showed that as the sampling scope extended to a larger geographic area, genetic differentiation began to become significant, particularly among Northeastern populations. A series of hierarchical AMOVA could detect the genetic relationship of three closely located islands between Korea and Japan that might have been tightly connected by the regional Tsushima current. Neutrality and mismatch distribution analyses revealed a strong signature of a recent population expansion of P. altivelis in East Asia, estimated at 126 to 391 thousand years ago during the late Pleistocene. Therefore it suggests that the present population of P. altivelis traces back to its approximate demographic change long before the last glacial maximum. This contrasts our a priori expectation that the most recent glacial event might have the most crucial effect on the present day demography of marine organisms through bottleneck and subsequent increase of effective population size in this region.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.37 no.4
• /
• pp.21-54
• /
• 2015

This paper analyzes how and why household debt distribution by the householder age has changed over the past decade both in Korea and the US. Data shows that the proportion of household debt held by younger households has decreased, while that held by older households has increased. Empirical analysis shows that a change in the demographic distribution of householders is the main driving force that has shifted the household debt distribution. Given that demographic aging is an inevitable trend, the proportion of household debt held by older households is also expected to increase. Therefore, the Korean government must preemptively prepare for the household debt problem, especially for debt held by older households, by strengthening macro-prudential policies, preventing asset price deflation, restructuring household debt contract structures, and reforming labor market inflexibility.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.71-102
• /
• 2020

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.63-82
• /
• 2022

Purpose - Drawing on relational institutional theory, we explored how demographic similarity between board members of a firm and newly emerged political elites led to firms' increased financial resource acquisition such as leverage ratio and decreased export intensity amidst the Asian financial crisis. We also studied how a firm's leverage ratio and export intensity can further affect firm profitability and financial credit rating. Design/methodology - We revisited and explored a unique, unprecedented crisis that affected most Korean firms: the Asian financial crisis that coincided with a governmental shift from a conservative to a liberal party. We collected demographic information from 432 listed Korean firms' board members and 43 political elites of the Blue House from 1998-2000 to create a demographic similarity measurement. We collected firms' financial information, built panel data, and used ordinary least squares regression to test our theory. Findings - Our results showed that demographic similarity between a firm's directors and newly emerged politicians had a positive association with a firm's leverage ratio but a negative association with a firm's export intensity. A firm's leverage ratio had a negative relationship with firm performance measured by firm profitability and financial credit rating. A firm's export intensity showed a positive effect on firm performance. Originality/value - We highlighted that during an economic crisis that coincided with a governmental shift and change of leading political actors, firms exerted efforts to survey the environment and build new external stakeholder relationships to cope with the changing landscape. We proposed that in an emerging market like Korea where low levels of trust and favoritism are prevalent across society, one of the relational institutional strategies that firms can employ is the selection of directors with similar demographic characteristics to political elites based on factors including birthplace and school affiliations. We examined the efforts of firms to build political networks with newly empowered political elites during a financial crisis, and the consequences of establishing such networks. We highlighted that during a financial crisis, the demographic similarity between a firm's board members and newly emerged politicians can provide firms with access to financial resources but can also result in poor management and reduced effort to enhance its international competitiveness.