• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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Water footprint estimation of selected crops in Laguna province, Philippines

  • Salvador, Johnviefran Patrick;Ahmad, Mirza Junaid;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.294-294
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    • 2022
  • In 2013, the Asian Development Bank classified the Philippines among the countries facing high food security risks. Evidence has suggested that climate change has affected agricultural productivity, and the effect of extreme climatic events notably drought has worsened each year. This had resulted in serious hydrological repercussions by limiting the timely water availability for the agriculture sector. Laguna is the 3rd most populated province in the country, and it serves as one of the food baskets that feed the region and nearby provinces. In addition to climate change, population growth, rapid industrialization, and urban encroachment are also straining the delicate balance between water demand and supply. Studies have projected that the province will experience less rainfall and an increase in temperature, which could simultaneously affect water availability and crop yield. Hence, understanding the composite threat of climate change for crop yield and water consumption is imperative to devise mitigation plans and judicious use of water resources. The water footprint concept elaborates the water used per unit of crop yield production and it can approximate the dual impacts of climate change on water and agricultural production. In this study, the water footprint (WF) of six main crops produced in Laguna were estimated during 2010-2020 by following the methodology proposed by the Water Footprint Network. The result of this work gives importance to WF studies in a local setting which can be used as a comparison between different provinces as well as a piece of vital information to guide policy makers to adopt plans for crop-related use of water and food security in the Philippines.

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Estimation of genetic parameters for pork belly traits

  • Seung-Hoon Lee;Sang-Hoon Lee;Hee-Bok Park;Jun-Mo Kim
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.8
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    • pp.1156-1166
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Pork belly is a cut of meat with high worldwide demand. However, although the belly is comprised of multiple muscles and fat, unlike the loin muscle, research on their genetic parameters has yet to focus on a representative cut. To use swine breeding, it is necessary to estimate heritability against pork belly traits. Moreover, estimating genetic correlations is needed to identify genetic relationship among the traditional carcass and meat quality traits. This study sought to estimate the heritability of the carcass, belly, and their component traits, as well as the genetic correlations among them, to confirm whether these traits can be improved. Methods: A total of 543 Yorkshire pigs (406 castrated males and 137 females) from 49 sires and 244 dam were used in this study. To estimate genetic parameters, a total of 12 traits such as lean meat production ability, meat quality and pork belly traits were chosen. The heritabilities were estimated by using genome-wide efficient mixed model association software. The statistical model was selected so that farm, carcass weight, sex, and slaughter season were fixed effects. In addition, its genetic parameters were calculated via MTG2 software. Results: The heritability estimates for the 7th belly slice along the whole plate and its components were low to moderate (0.07±0.07 to 0.33±0.07). Moreover, the genetic correlations among the carcass and belly traits were moderate to high (0.28±0.20 to 0.99±0.31). Particularly, the rectus abdominis muscle exhibited a high absolute genetic correlation with the belly and meat quality (0.73±52 to 0.93±0.43). Conclusion: A moderate to high correlation coefficient was obtained based on the genetic parameters. The belly could be genetically improved to contain a larger proportion of muscle regardless of lean meat production ability.

Assessment of Applicability of ET methods Applied to Paddy Rice Water Demand Estimation based on Agricultural Water Supply (농업용수 공급량 기반 논벼 수요량 산정을 위한 증발산량 산정 방법 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Sang Hyun;Jo, Gun Ho;Choi, Kyung Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.415-415
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    • 2020
  • 국내 농업용수 수요량 산정에 있어서 논벼 수요량은 수정 Penman (Modified Penman: MP) 방법에 의한 증발산량을 기반으로 산정하고 있으나, 최근 국제식량농업기구 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: FAO) 및 국내 농진청 등에서는 Penman-Monteith (PM) 방법에 의한 증발산량 산정방법을 채택하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 논벼 수요량 산정에 있어 우리나라 실제 현장여건에 적합한 논벼 증발산량 산정 방법을 제안하고자 기존에 적용하고 있는 MP 방법과 최근에 국내외적으로 제안되고 있는 PM 방법에 의한 논벼 수요량 산정 결과를 실질적으로 벼 생산에 공급된 저수지 공급량 자료와 비교 분석을 통해 현장 적용성을 평가해 보았다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 농진청에서 PM 증발산량 작물계수를 도출한 현장실험지구를 포함하는 호남지역을 대상으로 저수지 100 만톤 이상의 한국농어촌공사 관리지역 중 농업용수 공급량 자료가 신뢰성 있는 대표지구를 선정하였다. 농업용수 실제 공급량 자료를 기반으로 두 증발산량에 의한 논벼 수요량 산정 결과를 비교 분석한 결과, MP 방법에 의한 수요량이 PM 방법에 의한 수요량 보다 높게 나타났으며, 따라서 MP 방법에 의한 수요량이 PM 방법에 의한 수요량 보다 농업용수 공급량과의 차이가 작게 나타나는 경향을 보였다. 대체적으로 강우량이 적은 지역에서 농업용수 공급량 및 논벼 수요량이 높게 나타났으며, 이러한 결과는 공급량과 수요량간의 관계에도 영향을 미쳐 강우량이 많은 지역에서 강우량이 적은 지역에 비해 농업용수 공급일수가 감소함으로써 공급량과 수요량과의 차이가 적어지는 경향을 보였다. 본 연구 결과로 농업용수 공급량을 기준으로 논벼 수요량 산정에 있어 증발산량 산정방법은 안정적인 농업용수 공급계획과 수리시설 설계에서의 이수안전도 확보차원에서 MP 방법을 채택하는 것이 더 바람직 할 것으로 사료된다. 추가적으로 논벼 수요량 산정은 증발산량 산정방법 외에도 유효우량 산정방법, 수로손실, 재배관리손실 등의 다양한 관련 인자들의 영향을 받기 때문에 증발산량 산정방법과 더불어 이들 인자들에 대해서도 종합적인 평가를 실시하여 논벼 수요량 산정 결과의 신뢰성 확보가 요구된다.

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Technology Gap Prediction and Technology Catchup Strategy for High-Speed Rail Vehicles (고속철도차량의 기술격차 예측과 기술추격 전략)

  • Kim, Hyung Jin;Kim, Si Gon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2023
  • This study started with questioning the fact that in the assessmentof technology, which has taken place every two years since 2010, the technology gap in the most technologically advanced countries was evaluated as 4-5 years in each evaluation. To interrogate this question, regression estimation was performed using the Gompertz model based on time series data for technology level evaluation. As a result, it would take 17 years for high-speed rail vehicle technology to reach the level of 95 % of the country with the highest technology, and 72 years to reach the level of 100 %. Recognizing the technology gap is important in establishing a technology catchup strategy. A collaborative technology catchup strategy is the best strategy for moving to an original technology development stage while competing with large global leaders without much domestic market demand. This can occur regardless of where Korea is located in the technology catchup stage.

Development of compound eye image quality improvement based on ESRGAN (ESRGAN 기반의 복안영상 품질 향상 알고리즘 개발)

  • Taeyoon Lim;Yongjin Jo;Seokhaeng Heo;Jaekwan Ryu
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2024
  • Demand for small biomimetic robots that can carry out reconnaissance missions without being exposed to the enemy in underground spaces and narrow passages is increasing in order to increase the fighting power and survivability of soldiers in wartime situations. A small compound eye image sensor for environmental recognition has advantages such as small size, low aberration, wide angle of view, depth estimation, and HDR that can be used in various ways in the field of vision. However, due to the small lens size, the resolution is low, and the problem of resolution in the fused image obtained from the actual compound eye image occurs. This paper proposes a compound eye image quality enhancement algorithm based on Image Enhancement and ESRGAN to overcome the problem of low resolution. If the proposed algorithm is applied to compound eye image fusion images, image resolution and image quality can be improved, so it is expected that performance improvement results can be obtained in various studies using compound eye cameras.

A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.169-206
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    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

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Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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An Analysis on Consumers' Awareness of a Rural Specialties Exhibition Shop and the Design Development : Focusing on Rural Tourism Village (농촌 농특산품 전시판매시설 디자인 소비자 의식 분석 및 디자인 개발 - 농촌관광마을을 중심으로 -)

  • Jin, Hye-Ryeon;Seo, Ji-Ye;Jo, Lok-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2014
  • This, an association research for design-improvement and model-development of exhibition shops at rural tourism communities, is to secure objective data by analyzing customers' awareness-tendency of and demand for agricultural-specialty exhibition shops. Survey-questions for finding out consumers' awareness-tendency and demand were determined through brainstorming of a professional council, 30 rural communities of which visit-rate by consumers is considerably high were selected for the recruit of 200 consumers. For investigation and analysis, survey and in-depth interview were carried out at the scene with the application of frequency analysis and summarization of their opinions, which revealed that they have a strong will to visit the rural tourism communities for the purchase of agricultural specialties along with the experience of learning-program and on-the-scene direct dealing and that their viewpoint on the direct dealing at the scene was very positive. Also it was confirmed hat their satisfaction with the purchase of agricultural specialties by on-the-scene direct dealing, their pleasure at the purchase, their satisfaction with services and their intention for re-purchase of them were very high while their satisfaction with the exhibition shops was very low. With on-the-scene survey, the consumers' opinions could be listened to in depth. Almost all of them said their satisfaction with the trip to those rural tourism communities was considerably high since they could go to those communities themselves to relieve the stress from their modern life, to experience healing and to see the goods on the scene. Their satisfaction also was attributed to the fact that they have enough trust in purchase along with feeling the warm-heartedness of rural residents. As to their awareness of exhibition shops, they showed a positive response to the on-the-scene direct dealing at rural communities while they, thinking that the space in those exhibition shops was not sufficiently wide, demanded for more systematic counters in more accessible and affordable exhibition shops so that they might be more satisfied with the exhibition shops. Their demand for the necessity of exhibition shops selling agricultural specialties was found to be over 80%, which indicates that the necessity is very high. As to the suitability of function, they have the opinion that the business at those shops had better be focused on sales since they have the understanding of information when they take a trip to the rural communities, while there was another opinion: since agricultural products are seasonal items they should be exhibited and sold at the same time. More than 90% of the respondents had a positive viewpoint on direct dealing of agricultural specialties on the scene, which showed that their response to it was very high. They preferred the permanent shops equipped with roll-around table-booths. In addition, it was revealed that they want systematic exhibition shops in rural communities because they frequent those communities for on-the-scene direct purchase. The preferred type and opinion resulting from estimation of consumers' demands have been reflected for development of practical designs. The structure of variable principles has been designed so that the types of display-case and table-booth might be created. The result of this study is a positive data as a design model which can be utilized at rural communities and will be commercialized for the verification of its validity.

A Study on the Estimation of the Number of Dental Hygienist and Their Practice (치과위생사 인력추계와 업무범위에 관한 고찰)

  • Shin, Sun-Jung;Son, Jung-Hee;Choi, Yong-Keum;Ryu, Da-Young;Ma, Deuk-Sang
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to suggest the utilization of educated dental hygienist as the solution to the problem of supply and demand in dental clinics that has been brought up recently. Through document research and National Health Personnel Licensing Examination Board homepage, we estimated the number of dental hygienist and the condition of employment as well as gotten a grasp of the current activities carried out by dental hygienists. Furthermore, through discussion of researchers, suggested reform bills to guarantee and extend the work of dental hygienists as well as to train dental assistant. The findings were as follows: As the result of the estimation of dental hygienist, in the year 2009, two dental hygienists structure will be formed in each dental clinic. Currently the practice ratio of non-law activities of dental hygienists is high and in order to increase the practical use of dental hygienists, there is a need to reform bills that guarantee and extend the work of dental hygienists. In order to train new labors, there is a need for cautious consideration to distinguish the activities of existing trained labors, reforming of bills, and considering from various other sectors. From present point of view, solving the problem of existing trained dental hygienists, researching for the plan of utilizing dental hygienists and carrying it into practice must be the priority.

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