KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Technology Gap Prediction and Technology Catchup Strategy for High-Speed Rail Vehicles

고속철도차량의 기술격차 예측과 기술추격 전략

  • Kim, Hyung Jin (Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Si Gon (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 김형진 (서울과학기술대학교 철도전문대학원 철도경영정책학과) ;
  • 김시곤 (서울과학기술대학교 철도전문대학원 철도경영정책학과)
  • Received : 2022.10.16
  • Accepted : 2022.10.25
  • Published : 2023.02.01
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Abstract

This study started with questioning the fact that in the assessmentof technology, which has taken place every two years since 2010, the technology gap in the most technologically advanced countries was evaluated as 4-5 years in each evaluation. To interrogate this question, regression estimation was performed using the Gompertz model based on time series data for technology level evaluation. As a result, it would take 17 years for high-speed rail vehicle technology to reach the level of 95 % of the country with the highest technology, and 72 years to reach the level of 100 %. Recognizing the technology gap is important in establishing a technology catchup strategy. A collaborative technology catchup strategy is the best strategy for moving to an original technology development stage while competing with large global leaders without much domestic market demand. This can occur regardless of where Korea is located in the technology catchup stage.

본 연구는 2010년부터 격년 단위로 수행되는 기술수준 평가에서, 매 평가마다 최고 기술보유국과의 기술격차가 4-5년으로 평가되는 것에 의문을 가지고 시작하였다. 이러한 의문을 풀기 위해 기술수준 평가에 대한 시계열 자료를 토대로 Gompertz 모형을 가지고 회귀추정 하였다. 그 결과 고속철도차량 기술이 최고 기술 보유국의 95 % 수준에 도달하는 데는 17년이 필요하고, 100 %에 도달하는 데는 72년의 시간이 필요하다는 결과를 얻었다. 기술격차를 냉정히 인식하는 것은 기술추격 전략을 수립하는 데 결정적으로 중요하다. 한국이 기술추격 단계에서 어느 단계에 위치해 있든지 국내 시장 수요가 많지 않고 해외의 대형 선도기업과 경쟁하면서 원천기술개발단계로 이행하기 위해서는 협력을 통한 기술 전략이 최선이다.

Keywords

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