• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-making modeling

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A Study on the Evaluation of an Expert System에s Performance : Lens Model Analysis (전문가시스템의 성능평가에 관한 연구 : 렌즈모델분석)

  • 김충영
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.117-135
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    • 2004
  • Since human decision making behavior is likely to follow nonlinear strategy, it is conjectured that the human decision making behavior can be modeled better by nonlinear models than by linear models. All that linear models can do is to approximate rather than model the decision behavior. This study attempts to test this conjecture by analyzing human decision making behavior and combining the results of the analysis with predictive performance of both linear models and nonlinear models. In this way, this study can examine the relationship between the predictive performance of models and the existence of valid nonlinear strategy in decision making behavior. This study finds that the existence of nonlinear strategy in decision making behavior is highly correlated with the validity of the decision (or the human experts). The second finding concerns the significant correlations between the model performance and the existence of valid nonlinear strategy which is detected by Lens Model. The third finding is that as stronger the valid nonlinear strategy becomes, the better nonlinear models predict significantly than linear models. The results of this study bring an important concept, validity of nonlinear strategy, to modeling human experts. The inclusion of the concept indicates that the prior analysis of human judgement may lead to the selection of proper modeling algorithm. In addition, lens Model Analysis is proved to be useful in examining the valid nonlinearity in human decision behavior.

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System Dynamics based Group Decision-Making Support (시스템 다이내믹스를 기반으로 한 그룹 의사결정 지원 방안에 관한 연구)

  • 곽기영;김희웅
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2003
  • There have been growing recognition on the needs of coordination of diverse activities across cross-functional business areas necessarily involving group decision-making processes. Although many group decision-making support tools and methods have been introduced to enable the collaborative processes of group decision-making, they often lack features supporting the dynamic complexity issues. This study proposes system dynamics modeling approach based on simulation techniques to deal with the group decision-making tasks having properties of dynamic complexity.

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A Simulation based Approach for Group Decision-Making Support

  • Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Hee-Woong
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2004
  • The changing structure of organization and the increasing diversity of business have forced organizations to have abilities to coordinate dispersed business activities. They have required cooperation and coordination among the functional units in the organization which should involve group decision-making processes. Although many group decision-making support tools and methods have been introduced to enable the collaborative process of group decision-making, they often lack the features supporting the dynamic complexity issue frequently occurring at group decision-making processes. This results in cognitive unfit between the group decision-making tasks and their supporting tools, bringing about mixed results in their effects on group decision-making. This study proposes system dynamics modeling as a group decision-making support tool to deal with the group decision -making tasks having properties of dynamic complexity in terms of cognitive fit theory.

Emerging Data Management Tools and Their Implications for Decision Support

  • Eorm, Sean B.;Novikova, Elena;Yoo, Sangjin
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.189-207
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    • 1997
  • Recently, we have witnessed a host of emerging tools in the management support systems (MSS) area including the data warehouse/multidimensinal databases (MDDB), data mining, on-line analytical processing (OLAP), intelligent agents, World Wide Web(WWW) technologies, the Internet, and corporate intranets. These tools are reshaping MSS developments in organizations. This article reviews a set of emerging data management technologies in the knowledge discovery in databases(KDD) process and analyzes their implications for decision support. Furthermore, today's MSS are equipped with a plethora of AI techniques (artifical neural networks, and genetic algorithms, etc) fuzzy sets, modeling by example , geographical information system(GIS), logic modeling, and visual interactive modeling (VIM) , All these developments suggest that we are shifting the corporate decision making paradigm form information-driven decision making in the1980s to knowledge-driven decision making in the 1990s.

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A System Dynamics Approach for Making Group Decision

  • Kwahk Kee-Young;Kim Hee-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.958-965
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    • 2003
  • The rapidly changing business environment has required cooperation and coorduiation among functional units n organizations which should Involve group decision-making processes Although many group derision-making support tools and methods have provided the collaborative capabilities for organizational members, they often lack features supporting the dynamic complexity issue frequently occurring at group decision-making processes This study proposes system dynamics modeling as a group decision-making support tool to deal with the group derision-making tasks having properties of dynamic complexity in terms of cognitive fit theory.

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A Methodology of Decision Making Condition-based Data Modeling for Constructing AI Staff (AI 참모 구축을 위한 의사결심조건의 데이터 모델링 방안)

  • Han, Changhee;Shin, Kyuyong;Choi, Sunghun;Moon, Sangwoo;Lee, Chihoon;Lee, Jong-kwan
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2020
  • this paper, a data modeling method based on decision-making conditions is proposed for making combat and battlefield management systems to be intelligent, which are also a decision-making support system. A picture of a robot seeing and perceiving like humans and arriving a point it wanted can be understood and be felt in body. However, we can't find an example of implementing a decision-making which is the most important element in human cognitive action. Although the agent arrives at a designated office instead of human, it doesn't support a decision of whether raising the market price is appropriate or doing a counter-attack is smart. After we reviewed a current situation and problem in control & command of military, in order to collect a big data for making a machine staff's advice to be possible, we propose a data modeling prototype based on decision-making conditions as a method to change a current control & command system. In addition, a decision-making tree method is applied as an example of the decision making that the reformed control & command system equipped with the proposed data modeling will do. This paper can contribute in giving us an insight of how a future AI decision-making staff approaches to us.

Development of an Entity-Relationship Modeling System for Designing Relational Database (관계형 데이터베이스 설계를 위한 개체 - 관계 모델링 시스템 개발)

  • Yoo, Jae-Gun
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.16 no.spc
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    • pp.45-48
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    • 2003
  • Entity-relationship modeling for designing relational database is a very complicated thinking process that requires extensive knowledge and experiences. It is very likely that designers make mistakes in this process. In order to minimize the mistakes, a systematic method to guide the thinking process is needed. In this research, an entity-relationship modeling system is developed, which resolves the whole process of information modeling, data modeling, and functional dependency relationship analysis into small and simple decision-making steps. Therefore, it can reduce the possibility of making decision errors and improve the efficiency of the modeling process. It's functionality and efficiency is verified through some modeling examples. It is expected that the modeling system can be commercialized, if some functions are added, such as detection, warning, and correction of decision errors, and educational help.

Improving Systems Thinking Capability: A Simulation Approach (시스템 사고 증진을 위한 시뮬레이션 접근)

  • Kwahk Kee-Young;Kim Hee-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Association of Information Systems Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.241-251
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    • 2003
  • The rapidly changing environment have forced organizations to improve systems thinking capability to coordinate diverse activities across cross-functional business areas necessarily involving group decision-making processes. Although many approaches have been introduced to enable the collaborative processes of group decision-making, they often lack features supporting the dynamic complexity issues. The study proposes system dynamics modeling based on simulation techniques to improve systems thinking capability in group decision-making context.

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Dynamic System Modeling for Closed Loop Supply Chains System

  • Wadhwa, Subhash;Madaan, Jitendra
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.78-89
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    • 2008
  • The need for holistic modeling efforts for returns that capture the extended closed loop supply chain (CLSC) system at strategic as well as operational level has been clearly recognized by the industry and academia. Strategic decision-makers need comprehensive models that can guide them in efficient decision-making to increase the profitability of the entire forward and return chain. Therefore, determination of a near optimal design configuration, which includes the environmental, economical and technological capability factors, is important in strategic decision-making effort that affect the profitability of the closed loop supply chain. In this paper, we adopted an improved system dynamics methodology to tackle strategic issues that affect various performance measures, like market, time/cost, environment etc., for closed loop supply chains. After studying real life implementation issues in CLSC design, we presented guidelines for the PBM (Participative Business Modeling) methodology and presented its extension for the strategic dynamic system modeling of return chains. Finally, we demonstrated the measurement of operational performance by extending SD (system dynamic) application to closed loop supply chain management.

DEVELOPMENT OF BIM-BASED DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR APARTMENT REMODELING

  • Dong-Gun Lee;Sik Kim;Hee-Sung Cha;Ju-Yeoun Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1117-1123
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    • 2009
  • Compared with other industries, the construction Industry has many parties(A/E/C) as well as many types of construction activities. Especially, as for the remodeling project, the owner group the remodeling union consists of various stakeholders union and requiring the additional activities of demolition except for the existing new building construction project. Like this, the remodeling project has its own characteristics different from a new building construction project. As for the remodeling project, the Owner's decision making for a remodeling alternative has to be preceded, and other parties are required to propose a remodeling alternative which satisfies the Owner's requirements. However, because of time constraints, many types of problems occur during the decision-making process. In consideration of this, in this research, the authors would like to suggest a decision-making support system to help the Owner's decision-making in the early stage of a remodeling project. For this paper purpose of a remodeling decision-making framework based on Building Information Modeling(BIM) was suggested to help with the Owner's decision-making for each remodeling item and the decision-making support system was evaluated through Case Study.

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