• 제목/요약/키워드: Credit Risk

검색결과 276건 처리시간 0.029초

Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • 제17권5호
    • /
    • pp.13-21
    • /
    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

A Study on the Hydration Reaction Model of Expansive Additive of Ettringite-Gypsum Type (에트링가이트-석탄 복합계 팽장재의 수화반응 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park Sun Gyu;Takahumi Noguchi;Kim Moo-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
    • /
    • 제17권4호
    • /
    • pp.581-586
    • /
    • 2005
  • High-performance concrete (HPC), which is particularly sensitive to self-desiccation, is required to be durable even in severe environmental conditions, i.e. costal area, cold district, etc. However, in recent years, some attention was particularly given to cracking sensitivity of high performance concrete at early age. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that such concrete undergoes autogenous shrinkage due to self-desiccation at early age under restrained condition, nd, as a result, internal tensile stress may develop, leading to micro cracking and macro cracking. This shrinkage-introduced crack produces a major serviceability problem for concrete structures. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive additive for reducing the risk of autogenous shrinkage-introduced cracking. However, the research on hydration model of expansion additive has been hardly researched up to now. This paper presents a study of the hydration model of Ettringite-Gypsum type expansive additive. As a result of comparing forecast values with experiment value, proposed model is shown to expressible of hydration of expansive additive.

Problem Analysis and Improvements Plans for PF ABCP of Apartment Housing Development Projects (공동주택 PF ABCP의 문제점 분석 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Yeol;Hwang, Uk-Sun;Kim, Yong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • 제12권2호
    • /
    • pp.133-142
    • /
    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the problems of the parties involved in the issuance of apartment housing development projects. The adapted research method selected four apartment housing development as PF ABCP projects. This study carried out the case about participant institution of PF ABCP funding project including developer, constructor, financial institution so as to draw problems by participant institution. On the basis of the selected case, this thesis proposes methods for involved parties to negotiate and work out problems of the PF ABCP. The results of this study are as follows 1) Launching long-term project financing should be developed, including operating funds and strengthen the ABS and ABCP issuance of credit assessment procedures, combined with the simplicity of the instruments. 2) The Low-risk contract for the construction of simple managerial focus should be the construction, financial institutions essentially dependent on project financing feasibility verification purpose loans to prevent the division a true story, the development should be of interest to be preserved. The proposed included, among other, partial guarantee based on the construction plan financial institutions' share-based investment, and the supplement of legal issues.

A Study on Package Design of Intellectual Property Protection Programs -a focus on trademark and registration of design- (패키지디자인의 법적보호에 관한 연구 -의장 및 상표등록을 중심으로-)

  • Yang, Cho-San
    • Archives of design research
    • /
    • 제17권4호
    • /
    • pp.27-36
    • /
    • 2004
  • The protection of intellectual property right in international conventions are worldwide or regional areas already exists a century. Therefore, our country is positive affiliated with international conventions. After that time, such as a violation of international convention and an example of imitations are continually that we prognosticate the international trade market activities was difficult not only became an issue of country credit risk. At this point, the major purpose of this study make an analysis of both paralleled with the case study follow an example and the comprehension with concerned about recognition of intellectual property right. In additionally, it stands a plan of package design protections under the WTO systems. This study have carried out a theoretical and practical analysis of intellectual property right and statistical analysis through the inside and outside of the country packaging design study and a case study of troubles with intellectual property. Besides, it is accomplish the purpose of the study that established exploratory study survey about inside and outside of the country packaging design infringement case study and relative package design industry employees with consumptions real research. I hoped that this study will be a foundation on which packaging, design industry protections to intellectual property right.

  • PDF

Study on Economic and Financial Education for the North Koreans after Unification: from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics (통일 후 북한 주민 대상 경제금융 교육에 관한 연구: 행태경제학 관점을 중심으로)

  • Son, Jeong-Kook;Kim, Young-Min
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • 제7권2호
    • /
    • pp.239-246
    • /
    • 2021
  • Unification means the change of the economic system from 'Planned Economy' of the North Korea to 'Market Economy' of the South Korea. Therefore, it may cause confusions and difficulties for North Koreans who have been under planned economy for ages. So, we need to take the perspective of behavioral economics for the effective education. First of all, it is about overall finance, which contains the record of financial transactions, effect of inflation, investors' bounded rationality, and choice difficulty of financial products. Second, it is about borrowings, which includes the credit management, interest rate of difference among financial institutions. Third, it is about investment on financial products, which includes the effect of cost on returns, difference between compound interest and simple interest, trade-off between expected return and risk, market and non-market risks, the importance of diversification, and passive & aggressive investments.

Comparative Analysis of Survival Period by Technological Capabilities of Innovative SMEs in the Service Industry (기술수준에 따른 서비스업 혁신 중소기업의 생존기간 비교분석)

  • Lee, Jun-won
    • Korean small business review
    • /
    • 제43권3호
    • /
    • pp.1-20
    • /
    • 2021
  • The survival period according to technological capability was analyzed for about 22,500 innovative SMEs in the service industry. The survival period was defined as the occurrence of overdue and default, and the technological capability was divided into two clusters. As a result of estimating the survival period according to technological capability through Kaplan-Meier analysis, it was confirmed that the estimated survival period of T1-T4 grade service innovative SMEs was significantly greater in both overdue and default. As a result of the analysis of the Cox proportional hazard model applying the control variable, it was confirmed that the higher technological capability, the lower the risk in the group of start-up companies. However, in the group of non-start-up companies the technological capability did not significantly affect the survival period, and the influence of the variables related to the size of the company was found to increase. Therefore, the technological capability is meaningful as additional information that has a significant effect on the survival period of innovative SMEs in the start-up companies group of service industry. In addition, it was concluded that it is necessary to reflect the technological capability when establishing the SME support and promotion policy of the start-up companies group in the service industry.

A Study on the Dynamic Correlation between the Korean ETS Market, Energy Market and Stock Market (한국 ETS시장, 에너지시장 및 주식시장 간의 동태적 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Guo-Dong Yang;Yin-Hua Li
    • Korea Trade Review
    • /
    • 제48권4호
    • /
    • pp.189-208
    • /
    • 2023
  • This paper analyzed the dynamic conditional correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market and stock market. This paper conducted an empirical analysis using daily data of Korea's carbon credit trading price, WTI crude oil futures price, and KOSPI index from February 2, 2015 to December 30, 2021. First, the volatility of the three markets was analyzed using the GARCH model, and then the dynamic conditional correlations between the three markets were studied using the bivariate DCC-GARCH model. The research results are as follows. First, it was found that the Korean ETS market has a higher rate of return and higher investment risk than the stock market. Second, the yield volatility of the Korean ETS market was found to be most affected by external shocks and least affected by the volatility information of the market itself. Third, the correlation between the Korean ETS market and the stock market was stronger than that of the WTI crude oil futures market. This paper analyzed the correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market, and stock market and confirmed that the level of financialization in the Korean ETS market is quite low.

Comparative Analysis for Survival Period of Innovative SMEs and General SMEs (혁신형 중소기업과 일반 중소기업의 생존기간 비교분석)

  • Lee, Jun-won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • 제18권1호
    • /
    • pp.225-236
    • /
    • 2023
  • Policy implications were derived by comparing/analyzing innovative SMEs and general SMEs that obtained innovation certification from 2015 to 2021 in terms of survival period. Work experience, scale (employment, capital and debt size, sales and operating profit) Korean standard industry classification (2 digit) was used to select general SMEs similar to innovative SMEs. Survival period was calculated by defining suspension, closure and overdue equivalent to default as events. As a result of the survival analysis, innovative SMEs showed a 9.8% reduction in the risk of delinquency compared to general SMEs, indicating that the survival period of innovative SMEs was significantly longer. In addition, it was found that the work experience and size (employment, capital) of SMEs had a positive effect on the survival period, but debt had a negative effect on the survival period. This means that the innovation certification system centered on innovation capabilities and future growth potential is a significant indicator in terms of survival period. As a result, it was concluded that the benefits and support policies provided by the innovation certification system need to be more systematic and sophisticated by reflecting the work experience and industry for the actual growth and survival of SMEs.

  • PDF

A Study on the Effect of China House Prices on Bank Loan and Management Stability (중국 부동산 가격이 은행대출 및 경영안정성에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae Soo Hyun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • 제10권1호
    • /
    • pp.153-158
    • /
    • 2024
  • Recently, concerns about the spread of credit risk in China's real estate market are gradually increasing. Therefore, it is very meaningful to diagnose the management stability of Chinese commercial banks. This study analyzes the impact of housing prices on the loan proportion and management stability of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, we classify Chinese commercial banks according to size and verify whether there are differences in loan proportion and management stability. If there is a difference by scale, the effect of interaction with housing price changes is also verified. The analysis results are summarized as follows. First, it was found that as the housing price growth rate increases, the proportion of loans from Chinese commercial banks increases. Second, as the rate of increase in housing prices and the proportion of total loans increases, management stability appears to decrease. Third, larger banks were found to have a higher proportion of loans, and smaller banks were found to have greater management stability. The results of this analysis show that Chinese commercial banks' aggressive expansion of their loan proportion is lowering their management stability. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the loan ratio to the appropriate size level and secure stability with differentiated strategies according to the loan ratio

Economic Feasibility of REDD Project for Preventing Deforestation in North Korea (북한 산림전용 방지수단으로서의 REDD 사업의 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Jo, Jang Hwan;KOO, Ja Choon;Youn, Yeo Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • 제100권4호
    • /
    • pp.630-638
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study aims to verify the economic validity of the REDD project in North Korea by estimating the potential carbon credits and the cost of REDD project. The REDD potential credits of North Korea are estimated based on the international statistics of forest area and population from 1990 to 2010, and the cost of REDD project is estimated indirectly by annual land opportunity cost of agriculture assuming that South Korea will aid the food production per area in North Korea. When the 25% reduction scenario was applied to the annual deforestation rate in North Korea, the potential REDD credits were estimated to be $4,232million{\sim}5,290milliontCO_2eq.$ for 20 years. It would account for 28~35% of South Korea's national medium-term greenhouse gas reduction target. On the other hand, the break-even price of REDD project was calculated as the profit of agriculture in the land available by forest conversion in North Korea. It was estimated to be 19.19$/$tCO_2eq.$ when the non-permanence risk of forest conserved through a REDD contract is assumed to be 20%. This price is higher than the price of REDD carbon credit 5$/$tCO_2eq.$ dealt in the 2010 voluntary carbon market, leading to no economic feasibility. However, REDD project provides co-benefits besides climate mitigation. As previous studies indicate, the break-even price is lower than 20$/$tCO_2eq.$, which is the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas emissions by loss of forest. Therefore REDD in North Korea can be justified against the social benefits. The economic feasibility of REDD project in North Korea can be largely influenced by the risk percentage. Thus, North Korean REDD project needs a strong guarantee and involvement by the government and people of North Korea to assure the project's economic feasibility.