• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Growth

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Financial Development and Economic Growth: Credit Distribution in Southeast Asian Countries

  • Lan Thi Huong NGUYEN;Anh Le Dieu NGUYEN;Huyen Thanh LE;Duy Van NGUYEN
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Research on financial development plays a crucial role in guiding and implementing policies for both financial development and economic growth. This study aims to evaluate the impact of financial development on the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries. Research design, data and methodology: The research utilizes data from 11 Southeast Asian countries from 2015 to 2022. Financial development data is proxied by credit distribution in private sector. Results: Based on the analysis using the FGLS model, it indicates that financial development has a positive impact on the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries. In addition, the study also examines the impact of state investment costs and FDI investment on economic growth. The results also show that foreign direct investment flows still play an important role in Southeast Asian countries (FDI has a positive impact on economic growth). State investment costs also impact economic growth, showing that the development of public investment also brings good development to countries. Conclusions: These results suggest that credit policies for financial development in general, and the development of private credit in particular, play a significant role in these countries. Building a system to promote the activities of private sector economies will help stimulate the economic development of Southeast Asian countries.

On Characteristics of the Growth of Regional Credit Unions in Korea (한국 지역신협의 성장의 특징)

  • Kim, Myoungrok;Choi, Jin-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.75-90
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    • 2016
  • It is unique from other financial institutions that credit unions in Korea have been developed as voluntary activity for enhancing the financial access of the poor in 1960s. However, currently some raise criticism that the cooperative identity as voluntary movement has been weaker. This paper endeavor to analyze the growth of credit unions during 2000s and explain what the implications of their growth are, using data from National Credit Union Federation of Korea. Our findings are as follows; firstly, the development of credit unions in 2000s are able to be regarded as a reflection of the rationale of advocate for quantitative growth. Secondly, the growth of credit unions are mostly dependant on non-taxable deposit, large loan, and collateralized loan which can lead to weaken the identity as voluntary cooperatives. Thirdly, the strategy of quantitative growth cannot be helpful for soundness of asset and profitability, eventually weakening their sustainability.

Bank Capital and Lending Behavior of Vietnamese Commercial Banks

  • DANG, Van Dan;LE, Thi Tuyet Hoa;LE, Dinh Hac;NGUYEN, Hoang Dieu Hien
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.373-385
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    • 2021
  • The objective of the study is to empirically investigate the impact of bank capital on the lending behavior of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2007 to 2019. Lending behavior is captured by two dimensions, including the quantity (loan growth) and quality (credit risk) of loans. Instead of investigating loan growth and credit risk separately, we combine these two aspects in our study and further develop the interaction term between capital buffers and credit risk to capture the asymmetric impact. We apply the dynamic model (regressed by the generalized method of moments) and the static models (regressed using the fixed effects, random effects, and the pooled regression approach) to perform regressions. The results show that banks with higher capital ratios tend to expand lending more, while the risk of credit portfolios is controlled at lower levels at these banks. Further analysis reveals that credit risk mitigates some aspects of the relationship between bank capital and loan expansion. The patterns remain robust across alternative measures and econometric techniques. The study provides insightful policy implications for bank managers and regulators in the process of upgrading capital resources to ensure the safety and soundness of the banking industry in an emerging country.

Determining Personal Credit Rating through Voice Analysis: Case of P2P loan borrowers

  • Lee, Sangmin
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.3627-3641
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    • 2021
  • Fintech, which stands for financial technology, is growing fast globally since the economic crisis hit the United States in 2008. Fintech companies are striving to secure a competitive advantage over existing financial services by providing efficient financial services utilizing the latest technologies. Fintech companies can be classified into several areas according to their business solutions. Among the Fintech sector, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending companies are leading the domestic Fintech industry. P2P lending is a method of lending funds directly to individuals or businesses without an official financial institution participating as an intermediary in the transaction. The rapid growth of P2P lending companies has now reached a level that threatens secondary financial markets. However, as the growth rate increases, so does the potential risk factor. In addition to government laws to protect and regulate P2P lending, further measures to reduce the risk of P2P lending accidents have yet to keep up with the pace of market growth. Since most P2P lenders do not implement their own credit rating system, they rely on personal credit scores provided by credit rating agencies such as the NICE credit information service in Korea. However, it is hard for P2P lending companies to figure out the intentional loan default of the borrower since most borrowers' credit scores are not excellent. This study analyzed the voices of telephone conversation between the loan consultant and the borrower in order to verify if it is applicable to determine the personal credit score. Experimental results show that the change in pitch frequency and change in voice pitch frequency can be reliably identified, and this difference can be used to predict the loan defaults or use it to determine the underlying default risk. It has also been shown that parameters extracted from sample voice data can be used as a determinant for classifying the level of personal credit ratings.

An Analysis of Convergence Relation on Economic Activity with Credit cards in Korea and China & A Development of the Algorithm on economic trend Estimation (한중 신용카드가 경제활동에 미치는 융합적 영향 및 경제추이 예측을 위한 알고리즘 개발 연구)

  • Baik, Ran;Ryu, Jae Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2016
  • This study is to analyze korea credit card market and the China credit card market, and predict future economic activity by developing the Algorithm for future economic trend Estimation As a results, there is no significant correlation between personal income growth and the credit card usage amount, and significant correlation between the credit card per capita and the credit card usage amount, in korea. there is significant correlation between personal income growth and the credit card usage amount, and between the credit card per capita and the credit card usage amount in china. it could be predicted that the china credit card market would be increased and the rate of increase would be gradually increased over the next five years, under the condition without constraints in the external environment.

The Short-run and Long-run Dynamics Between Liquidity and Real Output Growth: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • JUMONO, Sapto;SOFYAN, Joel Faruk;SUGIYANTO, Sugiyanto;MALA, Chajar Matari Fath
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.595-605
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    • 2021
  • The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

Logistic Regression for Investigating Credit Card Default

  • Yang, Jeong-Won;Ha, Sung-Ho;Min, Ji-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.164-169
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    • 2008
  • The increasing late-payment rate of credit card customers caused by a recent economic downturn are incurring not only reduced profit of department stores but also significant loss. Under this pressure, the objective of credit forecasting is extended from presumption of good or bad customers to contribution to revenue growth. As a method of managing defaults of department store credit card, this study classifies credit delinquents into some clusters, analyzes repaying patterns of customers in each cluster, and develops credit forecasting system to manage delinquents of department store credit card using data of Korean D department store's delinquents. The model presented by this study uses Kohonen network, a kind of artificial neural network of data mining techniques to cluster credit delinquents into groups. Logistic regression model is also used to predict repayment rate of customers of each cluster per period. The accuracy of presented system for the whole clusters is 92.3%.

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The Difference of the Inventories Assets Turnover Change Ratio According to the Firm Size (기업 크기에 따른 재고자산회전 변화율의 차이)

  • Lee, Jihye;Choi, Young-Keun;Kim, Pansoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 2015
  • This paper studied the differences of the inventories asset turnover change ratio and several characteristics variable between large and small manufacturing firm group. Large and small firm group were determined based on number of labors and asset size. Several characteristics variable of firms such as assets size, sales growth rate, return on assets, leverage ratio, credit rating and age of firm were used to find out the differences of firm group. As a result, the inventory asset turnover change ratio of large firm was 5.16% and that of the middle and small firm was 9.3%. For the large firm, sales growth rate, ROA and credit rating affect inventory assets turnover change ratio. For the middle and small sized firm, Assets size, sales growth rate and credit rating affect inventory assets turnover change ratio. Using this result, we can say that manufacturing company need to consider their firm size and their characteristics to make their own operation strategy of inventory.

Long-run Equilibrium Relationship Between Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Philippines

  • MONSURA, Melcah Pascua;VILLARUZ, Roselyn Mostoles
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2021
  • The financial sector is one of the most important building blocks of the economy. When this sector efficiently implemented a well-crafted program on banking and financial system to translate financial activities to income-generating activity, economic growth will be realized. Hence, this study analyzed the effect of financial intermediation on economic growth and the existence of cointegrating relationship using time-series data from 1986 to 2015. The influence of financial intermediation in terms of bank credit to bank deposit ratio, private credit, and stock market capitalization and time trend to economic growth was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression. The results showed that all the financial intermediation indicators and time trend exert significant effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The positive sign of the time trend indicates that there is an upward trend in GDP per capita averaging approximately 0.06 percent annually. Furthermore, the cointegration test using the Johansen procedure revealed that there is a presence of long-term equilibrium relationship between financial intermediation and time trend and economic growth, and rules out spurious regression results. This study established the idea that financial intermediation in the Philippines has a significant and vital role in stimulating growth in the economy.

The Diversification and Financial Performance of Korean Credit Unions (신용협동조합의 영업다각화가 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Hyun, Jung-Hwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2018
  • This paper examines the relationship between diversification and financial performance of community credit unions in Korea from 2011 to 2017. To do so, I employ fixed-effects panel analyses using credit union level panel data collected from the National Credit Union Federation of Korea. This study finds evidence that business diversification is likely to lower the ratio of troubled loans, which means improving asset quality of credit unions. However, the relationship between diversification and asset quality is not linear but nonlinear, which means over-diversification would have negative effects on asset quality. Next, diversification tends to increase profitability. Specifically, although diversification results in a rise in expenditures, an increase in profits made by diversification outweighs the rise in expenditures, which contributes to profitability. Put together, diversification would be a good business strategy to improve both profitability and asset quality. Given a result that fast loan growth deteriorates asset quality, credit unions' managers might adopt the diversification strategy to enhance asset quality, and not to pursue their own objectives motivated by moral hazards.