• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cost Prediction

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Simulation of Whole Body Posture during Asymmetric Lifting (비대칭 들기 작업의 3차원 시뮬레이션)

  • 최경임
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2002
  • In this study, an asymmetric lifting posture prediction model was developed, which was a three-dimensional model with 12 links and 23 degrees of freedom open kinematic chains. Although previous researchers have proposed biomechanical, psychophysical, or physiological measures as cost functions, for solving redundancy, they lack in accuracy in predicting actual lifting postures and most of them are confined to the two-dimensional model. To develop an asymmetric lifting posture prediction model, we used the resolved motion method for accurately simulating the lifting motion in a reasonable time. Furthermore, in solving the redundant problem of the human posture prediction, a moment weighted Joint Range Availability (JRA) was used as a cost function in order to consider dynamic lifting. However, it is known that the moment weighted JRA as a cost function predicted the lower extremity and L5/S1 joint motions better than the upper extremities, while the constant weighted JRA as a cost function predicted the latter better than the former. To compensate for this, we proposed a hybrid moment weighted JRA as a new cost function with moment weighted for only the lower extremity. In order to validate the proposed cost function, the predicted and real lifting postures for various lifting conditions were compared by using the root mean square(RMS) error. This hybrid JRA reduced RMS more than the previous cost functions. Therefore, it is concluded that the cost function of a hybrid moment weighted JRA can be used to predict three-dimensional lifting postures. To compare with the predicted trajectories and the real lifting movements, graphical validations were performed. The results also showed that the hybrid moment weighted cost function model was found to have generated the postures more similar to the real movements.

Muffler Design Using Transmission Loss Prediction Considering Heat and Flow (열과 유동을 고려한 음장해석을 통한 머플러의 설계)

  • Kim, Hyunsu;Kang, Sang-Kyu;Lim, Yun-Soo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.8
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    • pp.600-605
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    • 2014
  • Two mufflers for a large-size sedan are suggested aiming (1) sporty-sound and (2) quiet-sound as well as both satisfying low back-pressure and low manufacturing cost. Transmission loss prediction considering heat and flow may increase the accuracy and reduce the development cost in muffler design; thus, GT-power prediction considering heat, flow, and acoustics is utilized. By understanding the fundamentals of flow-acoustic theory in small orifice(hole), an effective muffler design concept is proposed. Vehicle tests show the consistence with predictions for sound; also a back-pressure test bench confirms the advantage in pressure drop for both suggested mufflers. Those suggested mufflers also have advantages in manufacturing cost due to simplicity of the design.

FORECASTING THE COST AND DURATION OF SCHOOL RECONSTRUCTION PROJECTS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

  • Ying-Hua Huang ;Wei Tong Chen;Shih-Chieh Chan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.913-916
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the development of Artificial Neural Network models for forecasting the cost and contract duration of school reconstruction projects to assist the planners' decision-making in the early stage of the projects. 132 schools reconstruction projects in central Taiwan, which received the most serious damage from the Chi-Chi Earthquake, were collected. The developed Artificial Neural Network prediction models demonstrate good prediction abilities with average error rates under 10% for school reconstruction projects. The analytical results indicate that the Artificial Neural Network model with back-propagation learning is a feasible method to produce accurate prediction results to assist planners' decision-making process.

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Life-Cost-Cycle Evaluation Analysis of the Shunting Locomotive (입환기관차의 LCC 평가분석)

  • Chung Jong-Duk;Kim Jeong-Guk;Pyun Jang-Sik;Kim Pil-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.551-556
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    • 2004
  • The deterioration of a shunting locomotive was characterized for the lifetime assessment. The locomotive has been used for shunting works in steel making processes, and in this investigation, various types of technical evaluation methods for the locomotive parts were employed to assess the current deterioration status and to provide important clue for lifetime prediction. Unlike other rolling stocks in railway applications, the diesel shunting locomotive is composed of major components such as diesel engine, transmission, gear box, brake system, electronic devices, etc., which cover more than 70 percent of the total price of the locomotive. Therefore, in this paper, each part of major components in the diesel locomotive was analyzed in terms of the degree of deterioration. The life-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis was performed based on the maintenance and repair history as compared with economical cost to provide the cost-effective prediction, i.e., to assess either repair for reuse or putting the locomotive out of service based on cost-effective calculation.

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FORECASTING THE COST AND DURATION OF SCHOOL RECONSTRUCTION PROJECTS USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS

  • Wei Tong Chen;Ying-Hua Huang;Shen-Li Liao
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.892-896
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    • 2005
  • This paper collected 132 schools reconstruction projects in central Taiwan, which received the most serious damage from the Chi-Chi Earthquake. Regression analysis was implemented to build the prediction model of the cost and the duration for the collected projects. It is found that the cubic regression models are capable for predicting the cost and the duration of the projects contracted by the central agency of which the contracting awarding approach was based on the most advantageous tendering (MAT) approach. On the other hand, power regression models are capable for predicting the cost and the duration of the projects contracted through the low bid tendering (LBT) approach. It is also found that the performance of the regression prediction model differs in accordance with organizations that contracted the reconstruction projects.

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DERIVING ACCURATE COST CONTINGENCY ESTIMATE FOR MULTIPLE PROJECT MANAGEMENT

  • Jin-Lee Kim ;Ok-Kyue Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.935-940
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the results of a statistical analysis using historical data of cost contingency. As a result, a model that predicts and estimates an accurate cost contingency value using the least squares estimation method was developed. Data such as original contract amounts, estimated contingency amounts set by maximum funding limits, and actual contingency amounts, were collected and used for model development. The more effective prediction model was selected from the two developed models based on its prediction capability. The model would help guide project managers making financial decisions when the determination of the cost contingency amounts for multiple projects is necessary.

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Unit Cost Prediction Model Development for the Domestic Reinforced Bar using System Dynamics

  • Ko, Yongho;Choi, Seungho;Kim, Youngsuk;Han, Seungwoo
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2013
  • Construction industry has become a larger and highly competitive industry. A successful construction project cannot be achieved only by efficient and fast construction techniques but also reasonable material cost and adequate transferring time of materials to installation. The steel industry in East Asia has become the mainstream in overall steel industries in over the world during the middle of the 21st century. China, Japan and Korea has been the main exportation countries. However, even though the international economic failure, China has increased the exportation amount and became an only exporting country which must be considered a serious problem regarding competitiveness in the international steel exportation industry. Thus, this study analyses the factors affecting the supply and demand amount of reinforced bars in the domestic field and moreover suggesting a unit cost prediction model using the System Dynamics simulation methodology, one of powerful prediction tools using cause-effect relationships. It is expected that this study contributes to the domestic steel industry growth in competitiveness in the international industry. In addition, the methodology used in this paper presents the frameworks for appropriate tools for market trend analysis and prediction of other markets.

A design of High-Profile Intra Prediction module for H.264 (H.264 High-Profile Intra Prediction 모듈 설계)

  • Suh, Ki-Bum;Lee, Hye-Yoon;Lee, Yong-Ju;Kim, Ho-Eui
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.2045-2049
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we propose an novel architecture for H.264 High Profile Encoder Intra Prediction module. This designed module can be operated in 306 cycle for one-macroblock. To verify the Encoder architecture, we developed the reference C from JM 13.2 and verified the our developed hardware using test vector generated by reference C. We adopt plan removal and SAD calculation to reduce the Hardware cost and cycle. The designed circuit can be operated in 133MHz clock system, and has 250K gate counts using TSMC 0.18 um process including SRAM memory.

Cost-optimal Preventive Maintenance based on Remaining Useful Life Prediction and Minimum-repair Block Replacement Models (잔여 유효 수명 예측 모형과 최소 수리 블록 교체 모형에 기반한 비용 최적 예방 정비 방법)

  • Choo, Young-Suk;Shin, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.18-30
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    • 2022
  • Predicting remaining useful life (RUL) becomes significant to implement prognostics and health management of industrial systems. The relevant studies have contributed to creating RUL prediction models and validating their acceptable performance; however, they are confined to drive reasonable preventive maintenance strategies derived from and connected with such predictive models. This paper proposes a data-driven preventive maintenance method that predicts RUL of industrial systems and determines the optimal replacement time intervals to lead to cost minimization in preventive maintenance. The proposed method comprises: (1) generating RUL prediction models through learning historical process data by using machine learning techniques including random forest and extreme gradient boosting, and (2) applying the system failure time derived from the RUL prediction models to the Weibull distribution-based minimum-repair block replacement model for finding the cost-optimal block replacement time. The paper includes a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method using an open dataset, wherein sensor data are generated and recorded from turbofan engine systems.

ROC and Cost Graphs for General Cost Matrix Where Correct Classifications Incur Non-zero Costs

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2004
  • Often the accuracy is not adequate as a performance measure of classifiers when costs are different for different prediction errors. ROC and cost graphs can be used in such case to compare and identify cost-sensitive classifiers. We extend ROC and cost graphs so that they can be used when more general cost matrix is given, where not only misclassifications but correct classifications also incur penalties.