• Title/Summary/Keyword: Contingency stage

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Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Data to Estimate Infection Risk of Bacterial Grain Rot of Rice in Korea

  • Kim, Hyo-suk;Do, Ki Seok;Park, Joo Hyeon;Kang, Wee Soo;Lee, Yong Hwan;Park, Eun Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to evaluate usefulness of numerical weather prediction data generated by the Unified Model (UM) for plant disease forecast. Using the UM06- and UM18-predicted weather data, which were released at 0600 and 1800 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC), respectively, by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), disease forecast on bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice was examined as compared with the model output based on the automated weather stations (AWS)-observed weather data. We analyzed performance of BGRcast based on the UM-predicted and the AWS-observed daily minimum temperature and average relative humidity in 2014 and 2015 from 29 locations representing major rice growing areas in Korea using regression analysis and two-way contingency table analysis. Temporal changes in weather conduciveness at two locations in 2014 were also analyzed with regard to daily weather conduciveness (Ci) and the 20-day and 7-day moving averages of Ci for the inoculum build-up phase (Cinc) prior to the panicle emergence of rice plants and the infection phase (Cinf) during the heading stage of rice plants, respectively. Based on Cinc and Cinf, we were able to obtain the same disease warnings at all locations regardless of the sources of weather data. In conclusion, the numerical weather prediction data from KMA could be reliable to apply as input data for plant disease forecast models. Weather prediction data would facilitate applications of weather-driven disease models for better disease management. Crop growers would have better options for disease control including both protective and curative measures when weather prediction data are used for disease warning.

An Analysis of the Importance of the Risk Factors Influencing the Calculation of the Subcontract Construction Bidding Cost (건설공사 하도급 입찰단가 산정에 영향을 미치는 리스크 요인의 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Goo;Park, Tae-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2007
  • The construction environment has the trend of oversizing and professionalizing, the increase of the construction period, and the risk factors and the uncertain factors which are important in the construction bid. The misunderstanding and the lack of knowledge of the subcontractor result in the decrease of the profit or the deficit. In conclusion, these are supposed to give the financial burden to the subcontractor. So, it is very important to predict the construction preparation cost calculation by the risk factors in the bidding stage and to calculate the bid unit cost considering the target profit of the subcontractor in the process of the mutual agreement and performance of the contract. In these points of view, this study analyzes how the importance of the risks influencing the bidding cost calculation affect the construction cost, and this analysis can be used as the basic data to establish the suitable bid strategy of the subcontractor.

Analyzing Characters and Designing Actions to Feature - Sarafanov of Written by A. B. Vampilov (형상화를 위한 인물분석과 행동설계 - A. B. 밤필로프 작 <장남>의 사라파노프)

  • Cheon, Hyo-Bum
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2014
  • Vampilov, who is not well known as a playwright in domestic, is acknowledged comparable to Anton Chekhov in Russia. This paper was planed in order to promote a unsatisfied study until now in domestic for works by Vampilov and studied a part of composing play to put on the stage for , a drama written by Vampilov. This paper, originated from a viewpoint that actor have to complete the final text of the play for audiences to read depending on the drama and based on work features and characters of Vampilov, established an analysis scheme according to segments of unit actions for actions of Sarafanov, the character of the play, in order to achieve a purpose under suggested situation at the drama and focused on completing purposes per units individually. We have analyzed Sarafanov and his actions referring patterns and probabilities of the characters in the other works by Vampiov and regarded it as the important item together with logical basis of actions. Lyric and humanism emphasizing works by Vampilov, affected by Anton Chekhov and Nikolai Vasilevich Gogol, are acknowledged as realistic descriptions using contingency and a play within a play outstandingly and emphasized an importance of human relation. We have selected as a primary way to compose action text that audiences would read on the stage and used it as the method to design action of the characters in order to activate natural good of Sarafanov and general absurdities that human, does creative works, never give up purposes of ideal life.

Design Development Management in the Design-Build Project by Cast-Study (사례 분석을 통한 턴키 프로젝트 실시설계 업무 관리방안)

  • Lee Hwang-Ku;Kim Young-Jae;Kim Kyung-Rai;Park Chan-Sik;Shin Dong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.4 no.3 s.15
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    • pp.128-136
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    • 2003
  • The contractors which execute the design-build project have difficulties in design management and contract administration in the pre-construction phase because they have managed construction projects focused on only construction phase so far. Moreover, they have to manage the design development stage without any contingency following-up various design revisions from the design reviews of outside experts. Therefore, the design management in the design development stage is a critical success facto. of the design-build project. The objective of this study is to structure the problems in the management skill for design development phase in the domestic design-build projects and to suggest a design development management method to settle the problems. To achieve these objectives, this study 1) analyzes the prior studies about the design-build procurement methods, 2) designs and performs a case study to embody the problems of the domestic design-build projects, and 3) proposes a method of design development management by analyzing the results of case study and interviewing experts.

Risk-Based Performance Evaluation and Prediction Tool by Characterizing Construction Projects in Pre-Project Planning (초기 단계 프로젝트 특성을 고려한 리스크 평가 및 예측 툴 개발)

  • Shin, Kang-Yong;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2008
  • Project risk factors are major triggers in cost performance in construction projects. Both owners and contractors are highly concerned in managing their risks in earlier times. As such, it is needed to provide a robust risk evaluation methodology in identifying and assessing the potential risks before project execution. In previous research, risk identification was conducted only in specific phases, i. e., design, procurement, construction. Therefore, the comprehensive approach in risk management was limited and their quantifying method was not well-defined. Since the benefit of planning in earlier times are maximized compared to later times, the risk management should be implemented in earlier planning stage. This study provide a new risk evaluation method by incorporating previous research and extensive literature review. By quantifying each risk factor from an extensive industry survey, the proposed tool can enhance the reliability of each factor weight and also the weights are categorized from a various perspectives, i.e., owners, contractors, lager-scale company, smaller-scale company, building projects. The proposed tool can be also useful in deciding on whether to proceed a particular project and How much the project contingency would be set aside in project execution. The study findings can also expedite the risk management procedure in a more systematic approach.

Flood Disaster Prediction and Prevention through Hybrid BigData Analysis (하이브리드 빅데이터 분석을 통한 홍수 재해 예측 및 예방)

  • Ki-Yeol Eom;Jai-Hyun Lee
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2023
  • Recently, not only in Korea but also around the world, we have been experiencing constant disasters such as typhoons, wildfires, and heavy rains. The property damage caused by typhoons and heavy rain in South Korea alone has exceeded 1 trillion won. These disasters have resulted in significant loss of life and property damage, and the recovery process will also take a considerable amount of time. In addition, the government's contingency funds are insufficient for the current situation. To prevent and effectively respond to these issues, it is necessary to collect and analyze accurate data in real-time. However, delays and data loss can occur depending on the environment where the sensors are located, the status of the communication network, and the receiving servers. In this paper, we propose a two-stage hybrid situation analysis and prediction algorithm that can accurately analyze even in such communication network conditions. In the first step, data on river and stream levels are collected, filtered, and refined from diverse sensors of different types and stored in a bigdata. An AI rule-based inference algorithm is applied to analyze the crisis alert levels. If the rainfall exceeds a certain threshold, but it remains below the desired level of interest, the second step of deep learning image analysis is performed to determine the final crisis alert level.

A Study on the Construction Demand for Network of Metro Railroad in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Area - In the place of National Road No.7 - (부울경 광역도시철도망 구축 필요성에 관한 연구 - 국도 7호선 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Yang Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.6D
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    • pp.771-778
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    • 2011
  • Preliminary feasibility study on Busan metro line #1 in Yangsan line (Nopo-Bukjeong) depending on active volume of mass transportation between Yangsan city and Busan city was conducted. As the study concluded that it's valid, the necessity to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam Province is demanded to improve the transportation issues in Ungsang area vulnerable to metro service and to drive the balanced development between metropolitan cities. In addition, the volume of transportation depending on methods in target areas and road traffic assignment are surveyed to put a stress on the necessity to establish the metro railroad network. As the demand of transportation for alternative lines is predicted, the budget and benefits for construction for each alternative line set for the rough economic analysis depending on traffic volume for each method and traffic assignment results. The total project budget necessary for construction of proposal line #1 set as effective one among target three lines in this project is calculated in 794.32 billion won. Construction accounts for the most expensive in expenses for project and contingency allowances, purchases for vehicles and collateral expense are followed in orders. However, compensation for lands is not counted. In particular, according to economic analysis in proposal #1, ratio of benefit/cost (B/C) is 0.584, net present value (NPV) is -217.47 billion won, the internal rate of return (IRR) is analyzed in 0.604 %. At the current stage, it is not economically feasible, but the B/C is 0.737 in long-term upon construction of Yangsan line between Wolpheong and Yongdang which is proposal line #3. Therefore, when Busan metro basic plan is reorganized to aim the benefit of residents in Ungsang area vulnerable to the metro service, we think it must be necessary to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan which is proposal line #2 by extending the existing Sinjeong line and including this task line in high-ranked plan related to metro railroad.