• Title/Summary/Keyword: Consistent

Search Result 9,918, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change (고빈도 자료기반 유입 수온 예측모델 개발 및 기후변화에 따른 대청호 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Han, Jongsu;Kim, Sungjin;Kim, Dongmin;Lee, Sawoo;Hwang, Sangchul;Kim, Jiwon;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.30 no.5
    • /
    • pp.271-296
    • /
    • 2021
  • Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

A Study on the Accessibility Requirements Analysis Model for the Preventive Safety and Disaster Service Information System - Focusing on the Communication Ability (정보시스템을 통한 생활안전 위험의 예방·대응을 위한 안전약자 요구사항 분석모델 연구 : 의사소통기능을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Yong-Jick;Ji, Seok-yeon;Kim, Sang-hwa
    • The Journal of Korean society of community based occupational therapy
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study is to present an analysis model in developing an inclusive response for safety hazards and disaster preventive information system for vulnerable people to the disaster including persons with disabilities, and those with specific needs. Methods : In this study, the persona analysis method is used to analyze fictitious characters that correspond to various characteristics such as age, disability, environment, occupation, etc. in terms of the scenario of some particular disaster subjects. Based on the user's communication problems derived from the persona analysis, focused group interview and ICF based analysis were implemented to identify needs and arbitration methods. Results : The needs from persona analysis and ICF-based communication items analysis identifies the factors that make each fictitious character difficult in terms of communication in obtaining the benefits consistent with the purpose of the service. The study derives service requirements that can provide arbitration or facilitation methods to increase communication ability of the users. Conclusion : Through the persona analysis method, difficulties that could occur when receiving disaster information using communication devices were identified and analyzed in conjunction with communication problems described in the ICF. In building information services for the prevention of safety hazards and disasters, this study presented a model that uses the persona analysis method and the ICF classification system to derive user requirements for accessible information system.

Selection of Optimal Models for Predicting the Distribution of Invasive Alien Plants Species (IAPS) in Forest Genetic Resource Reserves (산림생태계 보호구역에서 외래식물 분포 예측을 위한 최적 모형의 선발)

  • Lim, Chi-hong;Jung, Song-hie;Jung, Su-young;Kim, Nam-shin;Cho, Yong-chan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.589-600
    • /
    • 2020
  • Effective conservation and management of protected areas require monitoring the settlement of invasive alien species and reducing their dispersion capacity. We simulated the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) using three representative species distribution models (Bioclim, GLM, and MaxEnt) based on the IAPS distribution in the forest genetic resource reserve (2,274ha) in Uljin-gun, Korea. We then selected the realistic and suitable species distribution model that reflects the local region and ecological management characteristics based on the simulation results. The simulation predicted the tendency of the IAPS distributed along the linear landscape elements, such as roads, and including some forest harvested area. The statistical comparison of the prediction and accuracy of each model tested in this study showed that the GLM and MaxEnt models generally had high performance and accuracy compared to the Bioclim model. The Bioclim model calculated the largest potential distribution area, followed by GLM and MaxEnt in that order. The Phenomenological review of the simulation results showed that the sample size more significantly affected the GLM and Bioclim models, while the MaxEnt model was the most consistent regardless of the sample size. The optimal model overall for predicting the distribution of IAPS among the three models was the MaxEnt model. The model selection approach based on detailed flora distribution data presented in this study is expected to be useful for efficiently managing the conservation areas and identifying the realistic and precise species distribution model reflecting local characteristics.

Analysis of the Nature of Science (NOS) in Integrated Science Textbooks of the 2015 Revised Curriculum (2015 개정 교육과정 통합과학 교과서의 과학의 본성(NOS) 분석)

  • Jeon, Young Been;Lee, Young Hee
    • Journal of Science Education
    • /
    • v.44 no.3
    • /
    • pp.273-288
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study aims to investigate the presentation of the Nature of Science (NOS) in integrated science textbooks of the 2015 revised curriculum. The five integrated science textbooks published by the revised 2015 curriculum were analyzed with the conceptual framework of the four themes of the Nature of Science (NOS) (Lee, 2013) based on scientific literacy. The four themes of the NOS are 1. nature of scientific knowledge (theme I), 2. nature of scientific inquiry (theme II), 3. nature of scientific thinking (theme III), and 4. nature of interactions among science, technology, and society. The reliability of the textbooks analysis was measured between two coders by the Cohen's kappa and resulted in between 0,83 and 0,96, which means the results of analysis was consistent and reliable. The findings were as follows. First, overall theme II, nature of scientific inquiry emphasized on the integrated science textbooks of the 2015 revised curriculum by devoting the contents over 40 % in the all five publishing companies' textbooks. Second, while the theme II, nature of scientific inquiry was emphasized on the textbooks regardless of the publishing companies, other themes of the NOS were emphasized in different portions by the publishing companies. Thus, the focus among other three themes of the NOS was presented differently by the publishing companies except that in theme II, nature of scientific inquiry was most emphasized on integrated science textbooks. Third, the presentation of the NOS was identified similarly across the topics of integrated science textbooks except on topic 4. Environment and Energy. The theme IV, nature of interactions among science, technology, and society was emphasized reasonably only in the topic of Environment and Energy of the textbooks. Finally, the presentation of the NOS in the integrated science textbooks of the 2015 revised curriculum were more balanced among the four themes of the NOS with focus on the scientific inquiry compared to the previous curriculum textbooks.

Legal Issues and Tasks for the Establishment of National Contract for Peace and Unification ('평화통일국민협약' 추진의 법제도적 과제)

  • Choi, Cheol-Young
    • Journal of Legislation Research
    • /
    • no.55
    • /
    • pp.57-94
    • /
    • 2018
  • Crisis of trust in Korean society, especially south-south conflicts among Korean political circle, civil society and peoples on the issue of the Korean peninsula policy driven by south Korean government, have weakened the sustainable and consistent energy of the policy for peace and unification of Korea peninsula. At the moment of drastic change of south-north relation in Korean peninsula, National agreement as a foundation of sustainable peace and unification policy has very important meaning. Because of this, national contract of unification as a kind of social concertation, has been demanded. National contract for peace and unification is an unprecedented process for making unofficial legal norm because it authorize quasi-legislative binding force on the agreement which is concluded by the Korean political circle, civil society and peoples for the peace and unification of Korean peninsula. National contract for peace and unification includes 'agreed aim and principles' for peace, prosperity and unification as well as process and result. And National contract for peace and unification, also is characterized long duration of aim achievement and openness of participating subjects. In terms of law, it will be legitimate source for comprehensive modification of international and internal law. In addition, The nature of National contract for peace and unification, as a people's law, should be considered as soft law which has the power to realize its contents through the enactment of legislation and policy. In order to guarantee the establishment and effectiveness of National contract for peace and unification, the setting of organization is need to determine the range of representatives, who participate in the process of contract making, procedure of contract and to carry out the contract after the conclusion of National contract for peace and unification. For the reason, the Council of National Contract for Peace and Unification as a independent administrative government committee and 'Act on National Contract for Peace and Unification' is needed.

Connections among Hohoche, Hoche, and Bongoae, and the Interpretation of Book of Changes (『주역』의 괘체와 해석 - 호호체(互互體)·호체(互體)·본괘(本卦)의 상관성과 『주역』 해석 -)

  • choi, yeen-young
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
    • /
    • no.53
    • /
    • pp.215-254
    • /
    • 2017
  • In the study of divining art, Hoche(互體) plays vital roles in the composition of Goaes(卦) and interpretation of Sutras, but the reality is that the research effort for Hoche has been poor along with the perception of its utilization. This study set out to investigate connections among Bongoae(本卦), Hoche, and Hoche of Hoche(Hohoche互互體) and thus shed new light on the importance of Hoche in the composition and interpretation of Yi. 64 Goaes belong to 16 Hoches, which should belong to 4 Hoches. 4 Hoches Jungcheongeon(重天乾), Jungjigon(重地坤), Suhwagije(水火旣濟), and Hwasumije (火水未濟). That is, one can make 6 Hoikgoaes(劃卦) by extracting Hoche from the 6 Hoikgoaes comprised of Hoche of Bongoae, and they converge on 4 Goaes of Geon (乾), Gon(坤), Gije(旣濟), and Mije(未濟). The present study named Hoche of Hoche Hohoche and argued that there should be some consistent connections in the interpretation of meanings of these 4 Hohoche Goaes and their respective Hoches and Bongoaes. Focusing on the discovery of common meanings among the Hoches and Bongoaes of "Danjeon(彖傳)" and" Daesangjeon(大象傳)" of Hohoche. Book of Changes begin with Jungcheongeon and Jungjigon and end with Suhwagije and Hwasumije. The Hohoche of 64 Goaes(卦) are concluded into these 4 Goaes, which indicates that the 4 Goaes have supervision over beginning and ending and that all the Goaes between them operate within the categories of 4 Goaes. The content of "Danjeon" and "Daesangjeon" in Hohoche holds certain semantic connections in the interpretation of Hoche and Bongoae restored to Hohoche and points to the directionality of the interpretation. Those findings open a window for investigating Hoche with the core principle of Goae formation in Book of Changes and imply that Hoche holds important significance in the interpretation of the Book.

The Existence Aspects of the Hyangri Class in Imsilhyeon, Jeolla Province in the Latter Half of Joseon - With a focus on Woonsuyeonbangseonsaengan (조선후기 전라도 임실현 향리층의 존재양태 - 『운수연방선생안(雲水?房先生案)』을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Ki-jung
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
    • /
    • no.72
    • /
    • pp.157-183
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the existence aspects of the Hyangri class in Imsilhyeon, Jeolla Province in the latter half of Joseon based on Woonsuyeonbangseonsaengan, which provides lists of Hyangris in Imsilhyeon from the fourth year(1724) of King Gyeongjong's reign to the early 20th century. It contained the names of total 704 Hyangris, who included 119 Kims, 103 Eoms, 103 Jins, 87 Parks, 86 Muns, 66 Lees, 31 Baeks, 27 Hwangs, and 17 Taes. In addition, there were 12 more family names that produced fewer than ten Hyangris. Based on the share of representative family names among the Hyangris of the area, it is estimated that the dominant family names were Kim, Eom, Jin, Park, Mun, and Lee. Another interesting aspect is that the Jeon and Yang families produced no Hyangris in the 19th century, whereas the Hwang family produced 5% of Hyangris in the century with the Jin family accounting for 10% or more. These findings show that little changes were consistent within the community of Hyangris despite the fact that a couple of families were dominant. The family clans of the family names were checked in Nosogyean, which records that they were the Kim family of Gyeongju, Eom family of Yeongwol, Jin family of Namwon, Park family of Hamyang, Mun family of Nampyeong, and Lee family of Gyeongju. The study then examined the family names of 76 Hojangs that were recorded to hold the Hojang title in Woonsuyeonbangseonsaengan to see whether the family names that produced higher-level Hyangris were the same as the ones above. There was an overall agreement between the family names that produced a lot of Hojangs and those that produced the most Hyangris, but there were differences according to the periods. Six family names produced Hojangs in similar percentage in the 18th century, and only three family names, which were the Jin family of Namwon(13), Mun family of Nampyeong(9), and Eom family of Yeongwol(6), produced more than ten Hojangs in the 19th century. Other noteworthy changes in the 19th century include the rapidly rising frequency of Hojangs serving the term twice or more compared with the 18th century and the concentration of Hojangs on certain family names. These findings indicate that six family names coexisted in the active production of Hyangris in the community of Hyangris in Imsilhyeon in the latter half of Joseon, that there were changes to the family names of higher-level Hyangris internally according to the periods, and that a shift happened toward the leadership of certain family names in the society of Hyangris.

A Study of Zhuxi's Daoxuezhengzhi(道學政治) through his political frustration in the partisan struggle of 1196 Qingyuandanghuo(慶元黨禍) (1196년 경원당화(慶元黨禍)의 사상정국에서 주희의 정치적 좌절을 통해서 본 주희의 도학정치고찰)

  • Lee, Wook-Keun
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
    • /
    • no.37
    • /
    • pp.473-507
    • /
    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to understand Zhuxi's Taoxuezhengzhi(道學政治) by reorganizing both his political opinion in each different political situation and his consistent political consciousness appeared in his whole political career. He concluded that the politics was the real problematic in Southern Sung, which made its structure distorted. This distorted structure of politics had widely rooted in whole sphere of society. In order to cure this political problematic, Zhuxi had focused on huangdi(皇帝) and chaoting(朝廷). That is why people is the basis of State and the result of politics, while huangdi and chaoting is the basis of politics and the beginnig of politics. According to Zhuxi, forming their political power group of their own will by using huangdi's power, the political elites close to only to huangdi made the function of chaoting unstable, with the result that the political decay produced. In chaoting, it resulted in the weakness of huangdi's power, the collapse of official discipline(紀綱), and the absence of public opinion(公論) and public aggreement(公議). Beyond chaoting, it resulted in the absence of political trust and the degeneration of public morals(風俗). In the Southern Sung were not altered the political orientation and culture based on the political decay, but only political orientation and characteristics of political elite only altered. This proves Zhuxi's approach that all problems in Southern Sung could resolve by the political approach. Zhuxi had suggested political issues in office. The alternatives for those political issues had basis of the theme, the one that saving people(恤民) is the purpose of politics. However his political ideas and the execution of them had been occsionally collapsed by the complex political structue, the mechanisms of political power, and the sameness and privatization of political geography in Southern Sung. Qingyuandanghuo(慶元黨禍) was the final stage of his political frustration, with the result that it led to the failure of Zhuxi's taoxuezhengzhi and interrupted the tradition of taoxue(道學) for the time being.

Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns (경과기온 양상에 따른 신고 배의 지역별 개화예측모델 평가)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Eun-jeong;Kim, Dae-jun;Kang, DaeGyoon;Seo, Bo Hun;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.268-278
    • /
    • 2020
  • Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.

Temperature and Solar Radiation Prediction Performance of High-resolution KMAPP Model in Agricultural Areas: Clear Sky Case Studies in Cheorwon and Jeonbuk Province (고해상도 규모상세화모델 KMAPP의 농업지역 기온 및 일사량 예측 성능: 맑은 날 철원 및 전북 사례 연구)

  • Shin, Seoleun;Lee, Seung-Jae;Noh, Ilseok;Kim, Soo-Hyun;So, Yun-Young;Lee, Seoyeon;Min, Byung Hoon;Kim, Kyu Rang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.312-326
    • /
    • 2020
  • Generation of weather forecasts at 100 m resolution through a statistical downscaling process was implemented by Korea Meteorological Administration Post- Processing (KMAPP) system. The KMAPP data started to be used in various industries such as hydrologic, agricultural, and renewable energy, sports, etc. Cheorwon area and Jeonbuk area have horizontal planes in a relatively wide range in Korea, where there are many complex mountainous areas. Cheorwon, which has a large number of in-situ and remotely sensed phenological data over large-scale rice paddy cultivation areas, is considered as an appropriate area for verifying KMAPP prediction performance in agricultural areas. In this study, the performance of predicting KMAPP temperature changes according to ecological changes in agricultural areas in Cheorwon was compared and verified using KMA and National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM) observations. Also, during the heat wave in Jeonbuk Province, solar radiation forecast was verified using Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data to review the usefulness of KMAPP forecast data as input data for application models such as livestock heat stress models. Although there is a limit to the need for more cases to be collected and selected, the improvement in post-harvest temperature forecasting performance in agricultural areas over ordinary residential areas has led to indirect guesses of the biophysical and phenological effects on forecasting accuracy. In the case of solar radiation prediction, it is expected that KMAPP data will be used in the application model as detailed regional forecast data, as it tends to be consistent with observed values, although errors are inevitable due to human activity in agricultural land and data unit conversion.