• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.111-123
• /
• 2014

A new class of bivariate distributions is derived by specifying its conditionals as the exponential and gamma distributions. Some properties and relations with other distributions of the new class are studied. In particular, the estimation of parameters is considered by the methods of maximum likelihood and pseudolikelihood of a special case of the new class. An application using a real bivariate data is given for illustrating the flexibility of the new class in this context, and, also, for comparing the estimation results obtained by the maximum likelihood and pseudolikelihood methods.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.119-133
• /
• 1999

마코브체인 몬테칼로 방법을 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 이용하였다. 베이지안 추론에서 조건부 분포를 가지고 사후분포를 결정하는데 있어서의 계산 문제를 고찰하였다. 특히 레코드값을 통계량을 갖고서 혼합과정과 중첩과정에 대하여 깁스샘플링 알고리즘과 메트로폴리스 알고리즘을 활용하여 베이지안 계산과 모형 선택을 제시하고 모의실험자료를 이용하여 수치적 인 계산을 시행하고 그 결과를 비교하였다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.75-85
• /
• 2008

In this paper, we compared domestic with foreign pilot lamps installed on the instrument board or electronic modules (car audio, air-conditional system, etc.) of an automotive vehicle by an accelerated life test in order to estimate the life of domestic pilot lamps. An accelerated life test method was developed and the relation of the life and voltage stress was analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) $B_{10}$ life of pilot lamp is above 5,000 hours, vehicle travel time for 10 years. ii) the life of domestic pilot lamp is longer than that of foreign thing. iii) the life distribution of domestic pilot lamp is wider than that of foreign thing. iv) it is possible to promote import replacement of automobile pilot lamp.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.65-82
• /
• 2017

Abstract. Camilo Dagum proposed several variants of a new model for the size distribution of personal income in a series of papers in the 1970s. He traced the genesis of the Dagum distributions in applied economics and points out parallel developments in several branches of the applied statistics literature. The main aim of this paper is to define a bivariate Dagum distribution so that the marginals have Dagum distributions. It is observed that the joint probability density function and the joint cumulative distribution function can be expressed in closed forms. Several properties of this distribution such as marginals, conditional distributions and product moments have been discussed. The maximum likelihood estimates for the unknown parameters of this distribution and their approximate variance-covariance matrix have been obtained. Some simulations have been performed to see the performances of the MLEs. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purpose.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.151-161
• /
• 1998

In this study, an attempt is made to apply the concept of fuzzy-bayesian theory to the integrity assessment of RC highway bridge, and uncertainty states are represented in terms of fuzzy sets which define several linguistic variables such as "very good", "good", "average", "poor", "very poor", etc. Especially, the concept of fuzzy conditional probability aids to derive a new reliability analysis which includes the subjective assessment of engineers without introducing any additional correction factors. The fuzzy concept are also used as reliability indexes for the condition assessment based on the proposed models, the proposed fuzzy theory-based approach with the results of visual inspection and extensive field load tests are applied to the integrity assessment of a new RC highway bridge, namely, Jichok bridge.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제54권1호
• /
• pp.110-116
• /
• 2022

Human failure event (HFE) dependency analysis is a part of human reliability analysis (HRA). For efficient HFE dependency analysis, a maximum number of minimal cut sets (MCSs) that have HFE combinations are generated from the fault trees for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). After collecting potential HFE combinations, dependency levels of subsequent HFEs on the preceding HFEs in each MCS are analyzed and assigned as conditional probabilities. Then, HFE recovery is performed to reflect these conditional probabilities in MCSs by modifying MCSs. Inappropriate HFE dependency analysis and HFE recovery might lead to an inaccurate core damage frequency (CDF). Using the above process, HFE recovery is performed on MCSs that are generated with a non-zero truncation limit, where many MCSs that have HFE combinations are truncated. As a result, the resultant CDF might be underestimated. In this paper, a new method is suggested to incorporate HFE recovery into the MCS generation stage. Compared to the current approach with a separate HFE recovery after MCS generation, this new method can (1) reduce the total time and burden for MCS generation and HFE recovery, (2) prevent the truncation of MCSs that have dependent HFEs, and (3) avoid CDF underestimation. This new method is a simple but very effective means of performing MCS generation and HFE recovery simultaneously and improving CDF accuracy. The effectiveness and strength of the new method are clearly demonstrated and discussed with fault trees and HFE combinations that have joint probabilities.

• 산업진흥연구
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.249-257
• /
• 2024

본 연구는 중국 청년 교사를 대상으로 진로지속학습이 직업적 사명감을 경유하여 진로성공에 미치는 영향에서 진로개발압력의 조건부 직접효과를 확인하는데 연구의 목적이 있다. 자료는 중국 광동지역의 한 대학교에서 유의표집한 청년 교사 354명을 대상으로 설문조사를 통하여 수집하였다. 수집한 자료는 SPSS PC+ Win ver. 25.0과 SPSS PROCESS macro ver. 4.2를 활용하여 분석하였다. 적용된 통계방법은 빈도분석, 신뢰도 분석, 상관분석 및 조건부직접효과 분석이었다. 연구의 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 진로지속학습 및 직업적 사명감은 진로성공과 유의한 양의 상관관계가 있었으나, 진로개발압력과는 유의미한 상관관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 진로개발압력은 진로성공과 유의한 음의 상관관계를 보였다. 둘째, 진로지속학습이 직업적 사명감을 경유하여 진로성공에 미치는 영향에서 진로개발압력의 조건부 직접효과가 확인되었다. 이러한 결과를 토대로 본 연구는 대학생들의 진로지속학습 뿐만 아니라 직업적 사명감과 진로개발압력을 동시에 활용하여 진로성공을 증진할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
• /
• 제26권2A호
• /
• pp.293-300
• /
• 2006

일반적으로 부식된 부재의 두께를 측정하는 데는 많은 불확실성이 존재하며, 부식의 진행정도에 따라 부재의 부식 두께는 측정 위치마다 다르므로, 기존의 신뢰성 해석 방법을 사용하여 모든 불확실성을 고려한 정량적인 안전도를 평가하는 것은 실질적으로 불가능하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 불확실 신뢰도 기법을 적용한 안전도 분석 절차를 제안하였으며, 효율성과 적용성을 검토하기 위하여 국내 공용중인 사장교에 적용하였다. 심하게 부식된 부재의 잔존 두께의 불확실성은 부식이 진행되는 정도에 따라 증가하므로 부재의 부식 두께를 불확실 정도로 표현되는 불확실 구간으로 표현하였으며, 기존의 신뢰성 기법과 불확실 신뢰도 기법의 비교를 수행하였다. 이러한 불확실 신뢰도 기법은 주관적이거나 조건부 독립에 대한 통계적 판단을 이용하여, 부식된 구조물의 안전도 평가나 위험도 평가를 하는 경우에 유용하여 적용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제20권1호
• /
• pp.11-22
• /
• 2017

The long-term effect of ambient temperature on bridge strain is an important and challenging problem. To investigate this issue, one year data of strain and ambient temperature of a long-span cable-stayed bridge is studied in this paper. The measured strain-time history is decomposed into two parts to obtain the strains due to vehicle load and temperature alone. A linear regression model between the temperature and the strain due to temperature is established. It is shown that for every $1^{\circ}C$ increase in temperature, the stress is increased by 0.148 MPa. Furthmore, the extreme value distributions of the strains due to vehicle load, temperature and the combination effect of them during the remaining service period are estimated by the average conditional exceedance rate approach. This approach avoids the problem of declustering of data to ensure independence. The estimated results demonstrate that the 95% quantile of the extreme strain distribution due to temperature is up to $1.488{\times}10^{-4}$ which is 2.38 times larger than that due to vehicle load. The study also indicates that the estimated extreme strain can reflect the long-term effect of temperature on bridge strain state, which has reference significance for the reliability estimation and safety assessment.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
• /
• 제4권2호
• /
• pp.5-14
• /
• 1988

균질토 사면에서 진행성 파괴에 대한 확를론적 모델이 제시되었다. 파괴면 위의 어떤 절편에 대한 국부적인 Safety Margin은 정규분포차 가정하였다. 파괴면을 따라 존재하는 전단강도의 불확실성은 1차원 Random Field Models로 표현되었다. 이 연구에서는 파괴가 Toe에서 시작되어 사면 정상까지 진행되는 경우만을 고려하였다. 파괴면위의 어느 두 인접 절편의 Safety Margin의 Joint Distribution은 Bivariate Normal로 가정하였다. 활동파괴의 전체적인 파괴확률은 일련의 Conditional events의 급으로 표현되었다. 최종적으로 개발된 절차가 절취사면의 신뢰도를 얻기 위하여 한 예에 적용되었다.