• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.14-29
• /
• 1992

원자력 발전소에서 발생하는 공통원인 고장을 분석하기 위한 컴퓨터 코드 COMCAF를 개발하였다. 공통원인 고장을 다룰 때, 먼저 계통의 최소 단절집합들을 공통원인 기본사상들이 고려되지 않은 고장수목으로부터 구한다. 그리고, 공통원인 고장들이 같은 최소 단절집합내의 부품들간에 있는지 또는 서로 다른 최소 단절집합들의 부품들간에 있는지를 고려하여 이들 최소 단절집합들의 발생 확률값을 계산한다. 유사하거나 동일한 부품들간에 공통원인 고장이 있을때는 Basic Para-meter 모델을 사용한다. 그러나, 서로 다른 부품들간에 공통원인 고장이 있을때는 Basic Para-meter모델에 쓰인 Symmetry Assumption을 두개 이상의 부품에 영향을 주는 기본사상들에만 적용한다. Inclusion-Exclusion방법을 사용하여 정점사상확률간을 구한다. 이 경우 같은 최소 단절 집합들에 있는 부품들의 공통원인 고장뿐만아니라 서로 다른 최소 단절집합들에 있는 부품들의 공통원인 고장도 쉽게 고려될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 공통원인 고장분석을 가압경수로의 보조 급수계통에 적용하였다. 이들 정점사상의 확률값들을 공통원인 고장이 없는 경우와 비교하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제46권2호
• /
• pp.327-338
• /
• 2018

Purpose: A risk evaluation procedure is proposed for common failure causes in FMEA(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis). The conventional FMEA does not provide a proper means to compare common failure causes with other failure causes. This research aims to develop a risk evaluation procedure in FMEA where common failure causes and other failure causes exist together. Methods: For each common failure cause, the effect of each combination of its resulting failures is recommended to be reevaluated considering their interactive worsening effect. And the probability that each combination of failures is incurred by the same common cause is also considered. Based on these two factors, the severity of each common cause is determined. Other procedures are similar to the conventional method. Results: The proposed procedure enables to compare and prioritize every failure cause. Thus, the common causes, each of which incurring two or more failures, and other causes, each of which is corresponding to one failure, can be fairly compared. Conclusion: A fair and proper way of comparing the common failure causes and other causes is provided. The procedure is somewhat complicated and requires more works to do. But it is worth to do.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제16권2호
• /
• pp.164-176
• /
• 1991

This paper considers the model of a k-out-of-n :G system with non-identical components which are subject to both forced and planned outages. For the forced outages, it assumes that there are the independent and common-cause outage events causing component failures. Then, the objective is to derive the upper and lower bounds on the mean operating time between system failures in the ample-server model. In addtion, the mean system failure times are also considered.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제53권2호
• /
• pp.357-367
• /
• 2021

In general, common cause failures (CCFs) have been modeled with the assumption that components within the same group are symmetric. This assumption reduces the number of parameters required for the CCF probability estimation and allows us to use a parametric model, such as the alpha factor model. Although there are various asymmetric conditions in nuclear power plants (NPPs) to be addressed, the traditional CCF models are limited to symmetric conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes the copulabased CCF model to deal with asymmetric as well as symmetric CCFs. Once a joint distribution between the components is constructed using copulas, the proposed model is able to provide the probability of common cause basic events (CCBEs) by formulating a system of equations without symmetry assumptions. In addition, Bayesian inferences for the parameters of the marginal and copula distributions are introduced and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are employed to sample from the posterior distribution. Three example cases using simulated data, including asymmetry conditions in total failure probabilities and/or dependencies, are illustrated. Consequently, the copula-based CCF model provides appropriate estimates of CCFs for asymmetric conditions. This paper also discusses the limitations and notes on the proposed method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제52권10호
• /
• pp.2238-2249
• /
• 2020

In a seismic PSA, dependency among seismic failures of components has not been explicitly modeled in the fault tree or event tree. This dependency is separately identified and assigned with numbers that range from zero to unity that reflect the level of the mutual correlation among seismic failures. Because of complexity and difficulty in calculating combination probabilities of correlated seismic failures in complex seismic event tree and fault tree, there has been a great need of development to explicitly model seismic correlation in terms of seismic common cause failures (CCFs). If seismic correlations are converted into seismic CCFs, it is possible to calculate an accurate value of a top event probability or frequency of a complex seismic fault tree by using the same procedure as for internal, fire, and flooding PSA. This study first proposes a methodology to explicitly model seismic dependency by converting correlated seismic failures into seismic CCFs. As a result, this methodology will allow systems analysts to quantify seismic risk as what they have done with the CCF method in internal, fire, and flooding PSA.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제15권4호
• /
• pp.229-235
• /
• 1983

원자력발전소에서 Common Mode Failures (CMFs)가 상당한 관심을 모으고 있다. 이 논문에서는 중복 시스템의 비가용도(Unavailability)에 있어서의 전체 CMFs를 잠재적 CMFs(Potential CMFs)와 의존성 인간 실수에 의한 CMFs (CMFs of dependent human error)로 나누어 이론적으로 고찰하였다. 결론적으로, 인간 실수의 의존성이 높아질수록 전체 CMFs는 의존성 인간실수에 의해서 주로 영향을 받는다고 할 수 있다. 역으로, 인간 실수의 의존성이 낮아질수록, 전체 시스템의 비가용도는 기계적 고장이나 의존성 인간실수보다 잠재적 CMFs에 의해 지배된다고 할 수 있다. 그리고, 중복 시스템의 비가용도에 있어서 전체 CMFs가 기계적 고장보다 주된 요소임도 알 수 있었다.

• 산업공학
• /
• 제25권4호
• /
• pp.382-392
• /
• 2012

Reactor protection system to keep nuclear safety and operational economy of plants requires high reliability. Such a high reliability of the system can be achieved through the redundant design of components. However, common cause failures of components reduce the benefits of redundant design. Thus, the common cause failure analysis, to accurately calculate the reliability of the reactor protection system, is carried out using alpha-factor model. Analysis results to 24 operating months are that 1) the system reliability satisfies the reliability goal of EPRI-URD and 2) the common cause failure contributes 90% of the system unreliability. The uncertainty analysis using alpha factor parameters of 0.05 and 0.95 quantile values shows significantly large difference in the system unreliability.

• 한국철도학회논문집
• /
• 제20권3호
• /
• pp.349-355
• /
• 2017

철도시스템의 고장은 운행지연 또는 철도사고의 원인이 될 수 있으며, 철도안전을 확보하기 위하여 높은 신뢰성이 요구된다. 철도시스템은 신뢰도 및 가용도를 높이기 위하여 동일 시스템을 다중으로 구성하여 동작 중인 시스템에 고장이 발생한 경우에 대기 시스템이 정상 동작을 수행하도록 설계한다. 일반적으로 시스템의 신뢰도는 시스템을 구성하는 각 요소의 신뢰도를 사용하여 분석하며, 시스템간의 물리적, 기능적, 프로세스적 독립이 보장되지 않는 다중 시스템의 경우는 다중 시스템에 동시에 고장을 유발하는 공통원인고장을 고려하여야 한다. 본 논문에서는 철도 시스템에서 사용되고 있는 대기 이중계 시스템에 대하여 각 시스템이 독립일 경우와 공통원인고장을 고려한 종속일 경우에 대한 신뢰도를 분석하였다. 신뢰도 분석을 위하여 다중계 구조의 다양성과 시스템 상태 전이별로 모델링이 가능한 마코브 모델을 사용하였으며, 공통고장모드의 분석 유무의 차이점 평가를 통해 시스템 신뢰도평가의 정확도 향상 방안을 제시한다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
• /
• 제25권9호
• /
• pp.62-68
• /
• 2011

Power system needs to sustain high reliability due to its complexity and security. The reliability prediction method is usually based on independent failure. However, in practice, the Common Cause Failures(CCF) and Cascading failure occur to the facilities in power system as well as independent failures in many cases. The CCF and Cascading failure turn out the system collapse seriously in a wide range. Therefore to improve the reliability of the power system practically, it is required that the analysis is conducted by using the CCF and Cascading failure. This paper describes the CCF and Cascading failure modeling combined with independent failure. The incorporated model of independent failure, CCF and cascading failure is proposed and analyzed, and it is applied to the distribution power system in order to examine this method.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제17권3호
• /
• pp.181-193
• /
• 1992

This paper shows the model of a consecutive-k-out-of-n :G system with common-cause outages. The objective is to analytically derive the mean operating time between failures for a non-repairable component system. The average failure time of a system and the system availability are also considered. Then, the model is extended to a system with repairable components and unrestricted repair, in which service times are exponentially distributed.