• 제목/요약/키워드: Cold bias of surface temperature

검색결과 18건 처리시간 0.022초

한국형수치예보모델 KIM의 폭염 예측 성능 검증 (Evaluation of Heat Waves Predictability of Korean Integrated Model)

  • 정지영;이은희;박혜진
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제32권4호
    • /
    • pp.277-295
    • /
    • 2022
  • The global weather prediction model, Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has been in operation since April 2020 by the Korea Meteorological Administration. This study assessed the performance of heat waves (HWs) in Korea in 2020. Case experiments during 2018-2020 were conducted to support the reliability of assessment, and the factors which affect predictability of the HWs were analyzed. Simulated expansion and retreat of the Tibetan High and North Pacific High during the 2020 HW had a good agreement with the analysis. However, the model showed significant cold biases in the maximum surface temperature. It was found that the temperature bias was highly related to underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at surface, which was linked to cloudiness. KIM tended to overestimate nighttime clouds that delayed the dissipation of cloud in the morning, which affected the shortage of downward solar radiation. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture showed that cold bias and trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere produce favorable conditions for cloud formation over the Yellow Sea, which affected overestimation of cloud in downwind land. Sensitivity test was performed to reduce model bias, which was done by modulating moisture mixing parameter in the boundary layer scheme. Results indicated that the daytime temperature errors were reduced by increase in surface solar irradiance with enhanced cloud dissipation. This study suggested that not only the synoptic features but also the accuracy of low-level temperature and moisture condition played an important role in predicting the maximum temperature during the HWs in medium-range forecasts.

온난 및 한랭시즌의 우리나라 지상기온 평가 알고리즘 개발 (Development of Estimation Algorithm of Near-Surface Air Temperature for Warm and Cold Seasons in Korea)

  • 김도용
    • 대한공간정보학회지
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.11-16
    • /
    • 2015
  • 시공간적 기온정보는 지구온난화와 기후변화의 이해에 있어서 중요한 기상요소이다. 본 연구에서는 인공위성 원격탐사로부터 획득된 공간적으로 균질한 지표면 정보를 이용하여 우리나라 지상기온 평가 알고리즘을 개발하였다. LST(Land Surface Temperature), NDWI(Normalized Difference Water Index), NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)를 독립변수로 하는 지상기온 추정을 위한 다중회귀모형을 제안하고, 우리나라의 지역기후변화를 고려하기 위하여 온난시즌과 한랭시즌에 대한 모형의 회귀상수 및 회귀계수를 도출하였다. 개발된 기온 추정 알고리즘에 의해 산출된 온난 및 한랭시즌의 기온정보는 지상관측기온과 비교하여 우수한 상관관계를 보였고, $3^{\circ}C$ 미만의 RMSE와 거의 0에 가까운 BIAS로 매우 높은 일치성을 보였다. 따라서 인공위성 지표면 원격탐사자료를 활용하고 온난 및 한랭시즌의 구분을 적용한 기온 평가 알고리즘은 우리나라의 지역기후를 평가하는데 있어서 간략하고 유용한 수단이 될 수 있으리라 기대된다.

중해상도 전지구 해양대순환 모형의 상층 수온과 혼합층 깊이 모사 성능 평가 (Evaluation of Upper Ocean Temperature and Mixed Layer Depth in an Eddy-permitting Global Ocean General Circulation Model)

  • 장찬주;민홍식;김철호;강석구;이흥재
    • Ocean and Polar Research
    • /
    • 제28권3호
    • /
    • pp.245-258
    • /
    • 2006
  • We investigated seasonal variations of the upper ocean temperature and the mixed layer depth (MLD) in an eddy-permitting global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) to assess the OGCM perfermance. The OGCM is based on the GFDL MOM3 which has a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degree and 30 vertical levels. The OGCM was integrated for 68 years using a monthly-mean climatological wind stress forcing. The model sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity were restored to the Levitus climatology with a time scale of 30 days. Annual-mean model SST shows a cold bias $(<\;-2^{\circ}C)$ in the summer hemisphere and a warm bias $(>\;1^{\circ}C)$ in the winter hemisphere mainly due to the restoring boundary condition of temperature. The model MLD captures well the observed features in most areas, with a slightly deep bias. However, in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea, the model shows significantly deeper MLD than the climatology-mainly due to weak salinity stratifications in the model. For amplitude of seasonal variation, the model SST is smaller $(1{\sim}3^{\circ}C)$ than the observation largely due to the restoring surface boundary condition while the model MLD has larger seasonal variation $({\sim}50m)$. It is suggested that for more realistic simulation of the upper ocean structure in the present eddy-permitting ocean model, more refinements in the surface boundary condition for the thermohaline forcing and parameterization for vertical mixing are required, together with the incorporation of a sea-ice model.

고해상도 지상 기온 상세화 모델 개발 (Development of a High-Resolution Near-Surface Air Temperature Downscale Model)

  • 이두일;이상현;정형세;김연희
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제31권5호
    • /
    • pp.473-488
    • /
    • 2021
  • A new physical/statistical diagnostic downscale model has been developed for use to improve near-surface air temperature forecasts. The model includes a series of physical and statistical correction methods that account for un-resolved topographic and land-use effects as well as statistical bias errors in a low-resolution atmospheric model. Operational temperature forecasts of the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) were downscaled at 100 m resolution for three months, which were used to validate the model's physical and statistical correction methods and to compare its performance with the forecasts of the Korea Meteorological Administration Post-processing (KMAP) system. The validation results showed positive impacts of the un-resolved topographic and urban effects (topographic height correction, valley cold air pool effect, mountain internal boundary layer formation effect, urban land-use effect) in complex terrain areas. In addition, the statistical bias correction of the LDAPS model were efficient in reducing forecast errors of the near-surface temperatures. The new high-resolution downscale model showed better agreement against Korean 584 meteorological monitoring stations than the KMAP, supporting the importance of the new physical and statistical correction methods. The new physical/statistical diagnostic downscale model can be a useful tool in improving near-surface temperature forecasts and diagnostics over complex terrain areas.

A Comparative Study of Algorithms for Estimating Land Surface Temperature from MODIS Data

  • Suh, Myoung-Seok;Kim, So-Hee;Kang, Jeon-Ho
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
    • /
    • 제24권1호
    • /
    • pp.65-78
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study compares the relative accuracy and consistency of four split-window land surface temperature (LST) algorithms (Becker and Li, Kerr et ai., Price, Ulivieri et al.) using 24 sets of Terra (Aqua)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, observed ground grass temperature and air temperature over South Korea. The effective spectral emissivities of two thermal infrared bands have been retrieved by vegetation coverage method using the normalized difference vegetation index. The intercomparison results among the four LST algorithms show that the three algorithms (Becker-Li, Price, and Ulivieri et al.) show very similar performances. The LST estimated by the Becker and Li's algorithm is the highest, whereas that by the Kerr et al.'s algorithm is the lowest without regard to the geographic locations and seasons. The performance of four LST algorithms is significantly better during cold season (night) than warm season (day). And the LST derived from Terra/MODIS is closer to the observed LST than that of Aqua/MODIS. In general, the performances of Becker-Li and Ulivieri et al algorithms are systematically better than the others without regard to the day/night, seasons, and satellites. And the root mean square error and bias of Ulivieri et al. algorithm are consistently less than that of Becker-Li for the four seasons.

RETRIEVAL OF LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM MTSAT-1R

  • Kwak, Seo-Youn;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Kang, Jeon-Ho;Kwak, Chong-Heum;Kim, Chan-Soo
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume I
    • /
    • pp.250-252
    • /
    • 2006
  • The land surface temperature (LST) can be defined as a weighted average temperature of components which constitute a pixel. The coefficients of split-window algorithm for MTSAT-1R were obtained by means of a statistical regression analysis from radiative transfer simulations using MODTRAN 4.0 for a wide range of atmospheric, satellite viewing angle (SVA) and lapse rate conditions. 6 types of atmospheric profile data imbedded in the MODTRAN 4 are used for the radiative transfer simulations. The RMSE is clearly larger on warm and humid profiles than cold and dry profiles, especially when the satellite viewing angle and lapse rate are large. The derivation of LST equations according to the atmospheric profiles clearly decreased the RMSE without regard to the SVA and lapse rate. The bias and RMSE are decreased as the more controls factors included. This preliminary result indicates that the characteristics of atmosphere, SVA and lapse rate should be included in the LST equation.

  • PDF

Retrieval of land Surface Temperature from MTSAT-1R

  • Kwak, Seo-Youn;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Kang, Jeon-Ho;Kwak, Chong-Heum;Kim, Chan-Soo
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
    • /
    • 제22권5호
    • /
    • pp.385-388
    • /
    • 2006
  • The land surface temperature (LST) can be defined as a weighted average temperature of components which constitute a pixel. The coefficients of split-window algorithm for MTSAT-1R were obtained by means of a statistical regression analysis from radiative transfer simulations using MODTRAN 4.0 for a wide range of atmospheric, satellite viewing angle (SVA) and lapse rate conditions. 6 types of atmospheric profile data imbedded in the MODTRAN 4 are used for the radiative transfer simulations. The RMSE is clearly larger on warm and humid profiles than cold and dry profiles, especially when the satellite viewing angle and lapse rate are large. The derivation of LST equations according to the atmospheric profiles clearly decreased the RMSE without regard to the SVA and lapse rate. The bias and RMSE are decreased as the more controls factors included. This preliminary result indicates that the characteristics of atmosphere, SVA and lapse rate should be included in the LST equation.

Impacts of Albedo and Wind Stress Changes due to Phytoplankton on Ocean Temperature in a Coupled Global Ocean-biogeochemistry Model

  • Jung, Hyun-Chae;Moon, Byung-Kwon
    • 한국지구과학회지
    • /
    • 제40권4호
    • /
    • pp.392-405
    • /
    • 2019
  • Biogeochemical processes play an important role in ocean environments and can affect the entire Earth's climate system. Using an ocean-biogeochemistry model (NEMO-TOPAZ), we investigated the effects of changes in albedo and wind stress caused by phytoplankton in the equatorial Pacific. The simulated ocean temperature showed a slight decrease when the solar reflectance of the regions where phytoplankton were present increased. Phytoplankton also decreased the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude by decreasing the influence of trade winds due to their biological enhancement of upper-ocean turbulent viscosity. Consequently, the cold sea surface temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific and overestimation of the ENSO amplitude were slightly reduced in our model simulations. Further sensitivity tests suggested the necessity of improving the phytoplankton-related equation and optimal coefficients. Our results highlight the effects of altered albedo and wind stress due to phytoplankton on the climate system.

Removal of Metallic Cobalt Layers by Reactive Cold Plasma

  • Kim, Yong-Soo;Jeon, Sang-Hwan;Yim, Byung-Joo;Lee, Hyo-Cheol;Jung, Jong-Heon;Kim, Kye-Nam
    • 한국방사성폐기물학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국방사성폐기물학회 2004년도 학술논문집
    • /
    • pp.32-42
    • /
    • 2004
  • Recently, plasma surface-cleaning or surface-etching techniques have been focused in respect of the decontamination of spent or used nuclear parts and equipment. In this study the removal rate of metallic cobalt surface is experimentally investigated via its surface etching rate with a $CF_4-o_2$mixed gas plasma. Experimental results reveal that a mixed etchant gas with about 80% $CF_4$-20% $O_2$ (molar) gives the highest reaction rate and the rate reaches 0.06 ${\mu}m$/min at $380^{\circ}C$ and ion-assisted etching dramatically enhances the surface reaction rate. With a negative 300 V DC bias voltage applied to the substrate, the surface reaction initiation temperature lowers and the rate increases about 20 times at $350^{\circ}C$ and up to 0.43 ${\mu}m$/min at $380^{\circ}C$, respectively. Surface morphology analysis confirms the etching rate measurements. Auger spectrum analysis clearly shows the adsorption of fluorine atoms on the reacted surface. From the current experimental findings and the results discussed in previous studies, mechanistic understanding of the surface reaction, fluorination and/or fluoro-carbonylation reaction, is provided.

  • PDF

동아시아 기온과 강수의 불확실성 평가 (An Uncertainty Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia)

  • 신진호;김민지;이효신;권원태
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.299-303
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this study, an uncertainty assessment for surface air temperature(T2m) and precipitation(PCP) over East Asia is carried out. The data simulated by the intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Atmosphere-Ocean coupled general circulation Model (AOGCM) are used to assess the uncertainty. Examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP variabilities shows that spring-summer cold bias and fall warm bias of T2m are found over both East Asia and the Korea peninsula. In contrast, distinctly summer dry bias and winter-spring wet bias of PCP over the Korea peninsula is found. To investigate the PCP seasonal variability over East Asia, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function(CSEOF) analysis is employed. The CSEOF analysis can extract physical modes (spatio-temporal patterns) and their undulation (PC time series) of PCP, showing the evolution of PCP. A comparison between spatio-temporal patterns of observed and modeled PCP anomalies shows that positive PCP anomalies located in northeastern China (north of Korea) of the multi-model ensemble(MME) cannot explain properly the contribution to summer monsoon rainfalls across Korea and Japan. The uncertainty of modeled PCP indicates that there is disagreement between observed and MME anomalies. The spatio-temporal deviation of the PCP is significantly associated with lower- and upper-level circulations. In particular, lower-level moisture transports from the warm pool of the western Pacific and corresponding moisture convergence significantly contribute to summer rainfalls. These lower- and upper-level circulations physically consistent with PCP give a insight of the reason why differences between modeled and observed PCP occur.

  • PDF