• 한국초지조사료학회지
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.337-342
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• 2018

This study was conducted to perform the suitability analysis of whole-crop rye (Secale cereale L.) based on the climatic information in the Republic of Korea to present useful information for producers and policy makers to determine the site-selection for the cultivation of the whole-crop rye. The criteria to analyze the climatic suitability of whole-crop rye was developed firstly. Then, the climatic suitability map for spatial analysis was developed through weighted overlaying the raster layers of climatic items in the evaluation criteria. Meanwhile, 16 geographically representative weather stations were selected to show examples of the calculation process of the climatic suitability score of a specific cultivation area. The results of the climatic suitability mapping indicated that the climatic conditions in most arable lands of the Republic of Korea such as the coastal, southern, western areas in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula and central areas in Jeju Island are suitable for the cultivation of whole-crop rye. The climatic suitability scores of the 16 weather stations were all in line with the results of the climatic suitability map.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제62권3호
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• pp.215-220
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• 2023

최근 국내에서 외래 곤충인 (가칭)마른나무흰개미(Cryptotermes domesticus)가 서울에 위치한 주택에서 발견되었다. 이 종은 국내에 정착할 경우 잠재적으로 목재나 목조건물에 피해를 줄 수 있어 시급한 국내 발생 조사가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 종 분포 모델 기법을 활용하여 마른나무흰개미의 정착 가능성과 관련된 기후적합성을 추정하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 문헌 자료를 바탕으로 전세계 분포 정보를 수집하고, 생물기후변수를 활용하여 4개의 모델링 알고리즘으로 기후적합성 예측 모델을 구동하였다. 개발한 모델들의 결과를 종합하여 최종적으로 마른나무흰개미의 평균 발생 확률로 표현되는 앙상블 모델을 개발하였다. 그 결과 마른나무흰개미는 열대 지방에서에서 해양성 기후를 보이는 연안이나 도서지역에서 기후적합성이 높을 것으로 예상되었다. 국내에서는 기후적합성이 전반적으로 낮을 것으로 추정되었다. 하지만, 마른나무흰개미의 정착 및 확산 가능성을 염두해두고, 최근 발생이 보고된 지점을 중심으로 정밀 역학 조사가 필요할 것으로 보인다.

• 한국초지조사료학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2024

함경북도의 개간된 경사지의 작물 생산성과 지속 가능성을 증가시키기 위해 두과 조사료를 활용하는 것이 유리하다. 특히, 함경북도에서 두과 조사료인 알팔파를 대상으로 재배 가능지역을 파악하는 것이 미래를 대비한 사료작물 재배 관련 정책 결정에 도움이 될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 작물의 기후적합도를 예측하는 Fuzzy Union 모형을 사용하여 현재와 미래조건에서 함경북도 내 알팔파의 기후적합도를 분석하고자 하였다. Fuzzy Union 모형으로 예측된 기후적합도와 미국 북부 지역의 실제 알팔파 재배 면적을 비교하였다. 또한, 전지구 기후모형 11종으로부터 얻어진 기후자료를 기후적합도를 계산하기 위한 입력자료로 사용하여 미래 기후변화 조건에서의 예측 불확도를 확인하였다. 미국 북부 지역을 대상으로 기후적합도의 주별 면적은 실제 알팔파 재배면적 변이의 약 44%를 설명하였다. 미래 기후조건에서 알팔파의 기후적합도는 함경북도 대부분의 지역에서 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 예를 들어, 온성군과 경원군의 경우 현재 기후조건에서 기후적합도가 88 이상으로 분석되었지만 2090년대에 약 66%가 감소하였다. 본 연구에서 Fuzzy Union 모델을 사용하여 기후변화에 따른 알팔파 재배 적합지의 변동을 공간적으로 확인할 수 있었다. 특히, 21세기 후반에는 함경북도 지역에서 알팔파의 기후적합도가 하고현상으로 인해 크게 감소할 것으로 분석되었다. 추후에는 토양 조건을 반영하여 알팔파의 재배 적합지를 예측하고, 이와 함께 헤어리베치 등의 타 두과 사료작물의 기후적합도의 예측하는 연구가 필요할 것으로 사료되었다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.427-437
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• 2019

Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.159-170
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• 2013

The effect of climate change on urban woody plants remains difficult to predict in urban areas. Depending on its tolerances, a plant species may stay and survive or stay with slowly declining remnant populations under a changing climate. To predict those vulnerabilities on urban woody plants, this study suggests a basic bioclimatic envelop model of heat requirements, cold tolerance, chilling requirements and moisture requirements that are well documented as the 'climatic niche'. Each component of the 'climatic niche' is measured by the warmth index, the absolute minimum temperature, the number of chilling weeks and the water balance. Regarding the utility of the developed model, the selected urban plant's present probabilities are suggested in the future climate of Seoul. Both Korea and Japan's thermal thresholds are considered for a plant's optimal climatic niche. By considering the thermal thresholds of these two regions for the same species, the different responses observed will reflect the plant's 'hardening' process in a rising climate. The model illustrated that the subpolar plants Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica are predicted to have low suitability in Seoul. The temperate plants Zelkova serrata and Pinus densiflora, which have a broad climatic niche, exhibited the highest present probability in the future. The subtropical plants Camellia japonica and Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii may exhibit a modest growth pattern in the late 21C's future climatic period when an appropriate frost management scheme is offered. The model can be used to hypothesize how urban ecosystems could change over time. Moreover, the developed model can be used to establish selection guidelines for urban plants with high levels of climatic adaptability.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.103-118
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• 2018

Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2023

Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.410-419
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• 2018

Purpose: CLIMEX, a species distribution modeling tool, includes various types of parameters representing climatic conditions; the estimation of these parameters directly determines the model accuracy. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of parameters for the climatic suitability calculated by CLIMEX for Metcalfa pruinosa in South Korea. Methods: We first changed 12 parameters and identified the three significant parameters that considerably affected the CLIMEX simulation response. Results: The result indicated that the simulation was highly sensitive to changes in lower optimal temperatures, lower soil moisture thresholds, and cold stress accumulation rate based on the sensitivity index, suggesting that these were the fundamental parameters to be used for fitting the simulation into the actual distribution. Conclusion: Sensitivity analysis is effective for estimating parameter values, and selecting the most important parameters for improving model accuracy.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.970-972
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• 2003

Due to rapid increase in the demand of Natural Rubber (NR) few years ago, NR price sore very higher. The rubber plantation in Thailand expanded very fast to non traditional areas with the result Thai become the biggest NR exporting country in the world. However, the average yield is still lower compared to experimental yield of RRIT (Rubber Research Institute of Thailand) or just 60 % (RRIT, 1998). This is due to many of new rubber planting areas, which are not suitable. The Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives thus has set 'The complete cycle development strategies for natural rubber' in the medium-term measures by reducing the rubber planting areas by 300,000 rai (1 rai = 0.16ha) through replanting with oil palm. The aim of this study is to find out land having lowest potential for rubber production (R3) but highest for oil palm production (P1). Find areas which are unsuitable for rubber and can be replaced by oil palm in order to get a better agricultural production. The study was applied upon Krabi province, Thailand. Crops requirement, degree of limitation to crops growth, climatic data, crops yield, soil map, topographic map etc., were used to evaluate land potential for both rubber and oil palm production according to FAO framework (Sys, 1992). An Agro-ecological suitability map for rubber and oil palm were produced. This was done by mean of GIS. The database was generated and guide map for the decision makers in view of suitable crop substitution was prepared.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.34-37
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• 2019

BACKGROUND: A region can be divided into agroclimatic zones based on homogeneity in weather variables that have greatest influence on crop growth and yield. The agro-climatic zone has been used to identify yield variability and limiting factors for crop growth. This study was conducted to classify agro-climatic zones in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil for predicting crop productivity and assessing crop suitability etc. METHODS AND RESULTS: For agro-climatic zonation, monthly mean temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation data from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, USA) between 1980 and 2010 were collected. Altitude and vegetation fraction of Brazil from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) were also used to classify them. The criteria of agro-climatic classification were temperature in the hottest month ($30^{\circ}C$), annual precipitation (600 mm and 1000 mm), and altitude (200 m and 500 m). The state of Mato Gross in Brazil was divided into 9 agro-climatic zones according to these criteria by using matrix classification method. CONCLUSION: The results could be useful as information for estimating agro-meteorological characteristics and predicting crop development and crop yield in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil.