- Volume 16 Issue 1
DOI QR Code
Modeling the Present Probability of Urban Woody Plants in the face of Climate Change
기후변화에 따른 도시 수종의 기후 적합성 평가모델 - 서울시를 대상으로 -
- Kim, Yoon-Jung (Graduate School, Seoul National University) ;
- Lee, Dong-Kun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
- Park, Chan (National Institute of Environmental Research)
- Received : 2012.11.22
- Accepted : 2013.01.29
- Published : 2013.02.28
The effect of climate change on urban woody plants remains difficult to predict in urban areas. Depending on its tolerances, a plant species may stay and survive or stay with slowly declining remnant populations under a changing climate. To predict those vulnerabilities on urban woody plants, this study suggests a basic bioclimatic envelop model of heat requirements, cold tolerance, chilling requirements and moisture requirements that are well documented as the 'climatic niche'. Each component of the 'climatic niche' is measured by the warmth index, the absolute minimum temperature, the number of chilling weeks and the water balance. Regarding the utility of the developed model, the selected urban plant's present probabilities are suggested in the future climate of Seoul. Both Korea and Japan's thermal thresholds are considered for a plant's optimal climatic niche. By considering the thermal thresholds of these two regions for the same species, the different responses observed will reflect the plant's 'hardening' process in a rising climate. The model illustrated that the subpolar plants Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica are predicted to have low suitability in Seoul. The temperate plants Zelkova serrata and Pinus densiflora, which have a broad climatic niche, exhibited the highest present probability in the future. The subtropical plants Camellia japonica and Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii may exhibit a modest growth pattern in the late 21C's future climatic period when an appropriate frost management scheme is offered. The model can be used to hypothesize how urban ecosystems could change over time. Moreover, the developed model can be used to establish selection guidelines for urban plants with high levels of climatic adaptability.
Supported by : Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute(KEITI)
- Kong, W. S. 1989. The Biogeographic Divisions of Korea and Their Species Composition. The Korean Geographical Society 40 : 43-54. (in Korean with English summary)
- Yang, K. C. and Shim, J. K. 2007. Distribution of major plant communities based on the climatic conditions and topographic features in South Korea.. Korean Journal of Environmental Biology 25(2) : 168-177. (in English with Korean summary)
- Allen, C. D. and Breshears, D. D. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland landscape in response to climate variation. In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA.
- Anon. 2001. Using ArcGIS Spatial Analysist. Environ. Systems Res. Inst. Redlands. California.
- Austin, M. P.․Nicholls, A. O. and Margules, C. R. 1990. Measurement of the realized qualitative niche : environmental niches of five Eucalyptus species. Ecological Monographs 60 : 161-177. https://doi.org/10.2307/1943043
- Beerling, D. J.․Huntley, B. and Bailey, J. P. 1995. Climate and the distribution of Fallopia japonica -use of an introduced species to test the predictive capacity of response surfaces. Journal of Vegetation Science 6 : 269-282. https://doi.org/10.2307/3236222
- Bradshaw, R. H. W.․Holmqvist, B. H.․Cowling, S. A. and Sykes, M. T. 2000. The effects of climate change on the distribution and management of Picea abies in southern Scandinavia. Canadian Journal of Forest Restoration 30 : 1992-1998. https://doi.org/10.1139/x00-130
- Bruce, T. J. A.․Matthes, M. C. and Napier, J. A. 2007. Stressful "memories" of plants : evidence and possible mechanisms. Plant science 173 : 603-608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2007.09.002
- Burton, P. J. and Cumming, S. G. 1995. Potential effects of climatic change on some western Canadian forests, based on phenological enhancements to a patch model of forest succession. Water Air Soil Pollution 82 : 401-414. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01182850
- Cannell, M. G. R. and Smith, R. I. 1986. Climatic warming, spring budburst and frost damage on trees. Journal of Applied Ecology 23 : 177-191. https://doi.org/10.2307/2403090
- Eriksson, O. 2000. Functional roles of remnant plant populations in communities and ecosystems. Global ecology and biogeography 9 : 443-449. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00215.x
- Franklin, J. F.․Swanson, F. J.․Harmon, M. E.․Perry, D. A.․Spies, T. A.․Dale, V. H.․Mckee, A.․Ferrell, W. K.․Means, J. E.․Gregory, S. V.․ Lattin, J. D.․Schowalter, T. D. and Larsen, D. 1992. Effects of global climate change on forests of northwest North America. : Global Warming and Biological Diversity. Yale University Press.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2007 : The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York : Cambridge Univ. Press.
- Lenihan, J. M. and Neilson, R. P. 1993. A rule-based vegetation formation model for Canada. Journal of Biogeography 20 : 615-628. https://doi.org/10.2307/2845518
- Nitschke, C. R. and John, L. Innes. 2008. A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change. Ecological modelling 210 : 263-277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.07.026
- Sakai, A. and Weiser, C. G. 1973. Freezing resistance of trees in North America with reference to tree regions. Ecology 54 : 118-126. https://doi.org/10.2307/1934380
- Skov, F. and Svenning, J. C. 2004. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography 27 : 366-380. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03823.x
- Spittlehouse, D. L. and Childs, S. W. 1990. Evaluating the seedling moisture environment after site preparation : Sustained Productivity of Forest Soils. Proceedings of the 7th North American Forest Soils Conference. Canada : University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
- Thornwaite, C. W.․Mather, J. R. and Carter, D. B. 1957. Instructions and tables for computing potential evaporation and the water balance. Drexel Institute of Technology.
- Vuuren, D. P. and Riahi, K. 2011. The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets-a letter. Climate change 104 : 793-801. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6
- Halpin, P. N. 1997. Global climate change and natural-area protection : management responses and research directions. Ecological Applications 7 : 828-843. https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0828:GCCANA]2.0.CO;2
- Hossell, J. E.․Ellis, N. E.․Harley, M. J. and Hepburn, I. R. 2003. Climate change and nature conservation : Implications for policy and practice in Britain and Ireland. Journal for Nature Conservation 11 : 67-73. https://doi.org/10.1078/1617-1381-00034
- Hutchinson, G. E. 1957. Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symposium on Quantitative Biology 22 : 415-457.
- Milad, M.․Schaich, H.․Burgi, M. and Konold, M. 2011. Climate change and nature conservation in central European forests : a review of consequences, concepts and challenges. 261 : 829-843.
- Muller, J. M. 1982. Selected climatic data for a global set of standard stations for vegetation science. The Hague.
- Pearson, R. G.․Dawson, T. P.․Berry, P. M. and Harrison, P. A. 2002. SPECIES : A spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecolological Modelling 154 : 289-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00056-X
- Pearson, R. G. and Dawson, T. P. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species : are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology & Biogeography 12 : 361-371. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x
- Prentice, I. C.․Cramer, W.․Harrison, S. P.․ Leemans, R.․Monserud, R. A. and Solomon, A. M. 1992. A global biome model based on plant phycology and dominance. Soil properties and climate. Journal of biography. 19 : 117-134.
- Roloff, A.․Korn, S. and Gillner, S. 2009. The Climate-Species-Matrix to select tree species for urban habitats considering climate change. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. 8 : 295-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2009.08.002
- Warter, J.․Jentsch, A.․Beierkuhnlein, C. and Kreyling, J. 2012. Ecological stress memory and cross stress tolerance in plants in the face of climate extremes. Envionmental and experimental botany.
- Woodward, F. I. 1987. Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge University Press, London, UK.
- Yim, Y. J. and Kira. 1975. Distribution of forest vegetation and climate in the Korean peninsula. Japanese journal of ecology 25(2) : 77-88.
- Yim, Y. J. 1977. Distribution of forest vegetation and climate in the Korean peninsula. 3. Distribution of some thermal climate. Japanese journal of ecology 27 : 177-189.