• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climatic Change

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Analysis of Disaster Occurrences in Mongolia Based on Climatic Variables (기후변수를 기반으로 한 몽골 재해발생 분석)

  • Da Hye Lee;Onon-Ujin Otgonbayar;In Hong Chang
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.93-103
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    • 2024
  • Mongolia's diverse geographical landscape and harsh climate make it particularly susceptible to various natural disasters, including forest fires, heavy rains, dust storms, and heavy snow. This study aims to explore the relationships between key climatic variables and the frequency of these disasters. We collected monthly data from January 2022 to April 2024, encompassing average temperature, temperature variability (absolute temperature difference), average humidity, and precipitation across the capitals of Mongolia's 21 provinces and the capital city Ulaanbaatar. The data were analyzed using multiple statistical models: Linear Regression, Poisson Regression, and Negative Binomial Regression. Descriptive statistics provided initial insights into the variability and distribution of the climatic variables and disaster occurrences. The models aimed to identify significant predictors and quantify their impact on disaster frequencies. Our approach involved standardizing the predictor variables to ensure comparability and interpretability of the regression coefficients. Our findings indicate that climatic variables significantly affect the frequency of natural disasters. The Negative Binomial Regression model was particularly suitable for our data, which exhibited overdispersion common characteristic in count data such as disaster occurrences. Understanding these relationships is crucial for developing targeted disaster management strategies and policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on Mongolian communities. This research provides valuable insights into how climatic changes impact disaster occurrences, offering a foundation for informed decision-making and policy development to enhance community resilience.

Comparative Analysis of the Change Tendency between Climatic Elements and Electricity Generation of Building Integrated Photo Voltaic in Winter (동절기 기후 요소와 수직면 건물일체형 태양광발전시스템 발전량의 상관관계 분석)

  • Park, Kang-Hyun;Kim, Su-Min
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.8
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    • pp.599-604
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    • 2012
  • Most air pollution and smog are a result of the burning of fossil fuels. The use of fossil fuels also causes acid rain and global warming. So the need for solar energy utilization is increased. It is essentially important to make efforts to reduce usage of fossil energy resources. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between climatic elements(Cloud cover, Duration of sunshine, Temperature) and the photovoltaic power generation. Cloud cover of the correlation coefficient was 0.87. And duration of sunshine of the correlation coefficient was 0.93. The order of the correlation coefficient was duration of sunshine, cloud cover, temperature. To accurately analyze of the degree of correlation for the photovoltaic power generation, additional research about climatic elements that show a high correlation is needed.

Prediction of Changes in the Potential Distribution of a Waterfront Alien Plant, Paspalum distichum var. indutum, under Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의 분포 변화 예측)

  • Cho, Kang-Hyun;Lee, Seung Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.206-215
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the changes in the potential distribution of invasive alien plants under climate change is an important and challenging task for the conservation of biodiversity and management of the ecosystems in streams and reservoirs. This study explored the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Paspalum distichum var. indutum in the Korean Peninsula. P. distichum var. indutum is an invasive grass species that has a profound economic and environmental impact in the waterfronts of freshwater ecosystems. The Maxent model was used to estimate the potential distribution of P. distichum var. indutum under current and future climates. A total of nineteen climatic variables of Worldclim 1.4 were used as current climatic data and future climatic data predicted by HadGEM2-AO with both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050. The predicted current distribution of P. distichum var. indutum was almost matched with actual positioning data. Major environmental variables contributing to the potential distribution were precipitation of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Our prediction results for 2050 showed an overall reduction in climatic suitability for P. distichum var. indutum in the current distribution area and its expansion to further inland and in a northerly direction. The predictive model used in this study appeared to be powerful for understanding the potential distribution, exploring the effects of climate change on the habitat changes and providing the effective management of the risk of biological invasion by alien plants.

Appraisal of Building Energy Systems considering Environment Constraint Conditions

  • Park, Tong-So
    • Architectural research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2001
  • This study aims to find out sector effects with the appraisal of building energy systems of urban ecosystem considering cost effects and environmental constraints condition such as climatic change factors including $CO_2$ gas which are not dealt in the institutional boundary as components standards and performance standards on energy performance of each part of a building applied on heavy energy spending buildings at present. The results of the appraisal of building energy systems shows that the existing building energy systems are not enough to fulfil the environmental condition under the environmental constraints supposing QELROs(Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Objectives) of carbon-dioxide exhaust. Henceforth, it is needed to fulfill the environmental criteria required by the Climatic Change Agreement for improving the adiabatic performance of each part of a building and active using of the solar energy.

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Agricultural Implications of Rainfall Events and Low Temperature in August 2002 (2002년 8월의 집중호우와 저온현상)

  • 이양수;심교문;황규홍;고문환
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.169-174
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    • 2002
  • When the long - lasting stationary fronts were pushed northward by the Pacific Highs in late July, mostly clear skies with intermittent showers were a typical weather of August in Korea. However, torrential rains and flash floods are now a seasonal event of August in recent years. Some meteorologists suspect this unusual phenomenon might be connected with the global change and are concerned about the possibility of change in summer climatic pattern in Korea. August of year 2002 must be remembered to be one of the record breaking months with respect to the rainfall events. In this paper, we analyzed the weather and crop data nationwide for August in 2002, and suggest a few countermeasures necessary to overcome the wet and cool summer impacts on agricultural sector.

Numerical Simulation for Urban Climate Assessment and Hazard (도시기후 평가와 방재를 위한 도시기상 수치모의)

  • O, Seong-Nam
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.2 no.4 s.7
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 2002
  • Since it is important to understand the bio-climatic change in Seoul for ecological city planning in the future, this paper gives an overview on bio-climate analysis of urban environments at Seoul. We analyzed its characteristics in recent years using the observations of 24 of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). In urbanization, Seoul metropolitan area is densely populated and is concentrated with high buildings. This urban activity changes land covering, which modifies the local circulation of radiation, heat and moisture, precipitation and creating a specific climate. Urban climate is evidently manifested in the phenomena of the increase of the air temperature, called urban heat Island and in addition urban sqall line of heavy rain. Since a city has its different land cover and street structure, these form their own climate character such as climate comfort zone. The thermal fold in urban area such as the heat island is produced by the change of land use and the air pollution that provide the bio-climate change of urban eco-system. The urban wind flow is the most important climate element on dispersion of air pollution, thermal effects and heavy shower. Numerical modeling indicates that the bio-climatic transition of wind wake in urban area and the dispersion of the air pollution by the simulations of the wind variation depend on the urban land cover change. The winds are separately simulated on small and micro-scale at Seoul with two kinds of kinetic model, Witrak and MUKLIMO.

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Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island (기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 제주도 확률강우량 산정)

  • Lee, Jun-Ho;Yang, Sung-Kee;Jung, Woo-Yul;Yang, Won-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2015
  • As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

Climatic Yield Potential Changes Under Climate Change over Korean Peninsula Using 1-km High Resolution SSP-RCP Scenarios (고해상도(1km) SSP-RCP시나리오 기반 한반도의 벼 기후생산력지수 변화 전망)

  • Sera Jo;Yong-Seok Kim;Jina Hur;Joonlee Lee;Eung-Sup Kim;Kyo-Moon Shim;Mingu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.284-301
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    • 2023
  • The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation f or CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction f ield. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benef its of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in f uture climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. The f indings of this study on changes in rice productivity and uncertainties in temperature and solar radiation during the 21st century, based on climate change scenarios, hold value as f undamental information for climate change adaptation efforts.

Temperature Changes of Climatic Solar Terms and Their Spatiotemporal Characteristics in South Korea (우리나라 기후 절기별 기온 변화의 시공간적 특성 분석)

  • Jin, Mi Jeong;Park, Sunyurp
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2015
  • The temperature change patterns of climatic solar terms and their climatic fitness were analyzed. Harmonic analysis based on thirty-year(1981-2010) time-series data from sixty one weather stations across South Korea showed that the central peaks of the extreme heat had shifted toward start of autumn with increasing mean temperature. The overall climatic fitness of solar terms, such as major heat, frost descent, major snow, and major cold, was low, and it showed significant regional variations. The actual meteorological phenomenon representing each climatic solar term was observed much later than the day of the solar term at most weather stations. The number of observations, where an actual meteorological condition for each climatic solar term was recorded within ${\pm}1$ week from the day of that solar term, ranged only from 7.7% to 40.4% of the entire data. Study results also showed that the climatic fitness of major heat, frost descent, and major snow gradually changed in the east-west direction. Major cold, a solar term with higher climatic fitness, was influenced more strongly by latitude than longitude. Considering geographically uneven magnitude and trends in temperature changes, rearrangement and adjustment of time intervals between the solar terms may help us improve their applicability as realistic indicators of seasonal changes.

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A Comparison of the Impact of Regional Anthropogenic Climatic Change in Urban and Rural Areas in South Korea (1955-2016) (최근 60년간 도시 및 농촌 지역의 국지적 기후변화 비교 분석)

  • Yoon, Dong-Hyun;Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Kim, Taegon;Ho, Chang-Hoi;Hayes, Michael J.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2018
  • Local climate characteristics for both urban and rural areas can be attributed to multiple factors. Two factors affecting these characteristics include: 1) greenhouse gases related to global warming, and 2) urban heat island (UHI) effects caused by changes in surface land use and energy balances related to rapid urbanization. Because of the unique hydrological and climatological characteristics of cities compared with rural and forested areas, distinguishing the impacts of global warming urbanization is important. In this study, we analyzed anthropogenic climatic changes caused by rapid urbanization. Weather elements (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) over the last 60 years (1955-2016) are compared in urban areas (Seoul, Incheon, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan) and rural/forested areas (Gangneung, Chupungnyeong, Mokpo, and Yeosu). Temperature differences between these areas reveal the effects of urbanization and global warming. The findings of this study can be used to analyze and forecast the impacts of climate change and urbanization in other urban and non-urban areas.