• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.5
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• pp.633-649
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• 2016

Exposure to high temperatures during the reproductive period of crops decreases their productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth Assessment Report predicts that the frequency of high temperatures will continue to increase in the future, resulting in significant impacts on the world's food supply. This study evaluate climate change-induced heat stress on four major agricultural crops (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat) at a global level, using the coupled atmosphere-ocean model of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2-AO) and FAO/IIASA Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model data. The maximum temperature rise ($1.8-3.5^{\circ}C$) during the thermal-sensitive period (TSP) from the baseline (1961-1990) to the future (2070-2090) is expected to be larger under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario than under a RCP2.6 climate scenario, with substantial heat stress-related damage to productivity. In particular, heat stress is expected to cause severe damage to crop production regions located between 30 and $50^{\circ}N$ in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, approximately 20% of the total cultivation area for all crops will experience unprecedented, extreme heat stress in the future. Adverse effects on the productivity of rice and soybean are expected to be particularly severe in North America. In Korea, grain demands are heavily dependent on imports, with the share of imports from the U.S. at a particularly high level today. Hence, it is necessary to conduct continuous prediction on food security level following the climate change, as well as to develop adaptation strategy and proper agricultural policy.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.507-514
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• 2009

In this study, a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to describe the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress index under stochastic precipitation conditions. The proposed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress index is investigated under a climate change scenario. The simulation results of soil water confirm that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the observations and show that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The simulation results of plant water stress index show two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. The simple impact assessment of climate change to soil water and plant water stress is discussed with Korean Meteorological Administration regional climate model.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.131-144
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• 2019

Climate Change affects the hydrological cycle in agricultural watersheds through rising air temperature and changing rainfall patterns. Agricultural watersheds in Korea are characterized by extensive paddy fields and intensive water use, a resource that is under stress from the changing climate. This study analyzed the effects of climate change on river flows for Geum Cheon and Eun-San Choen watershed using STREAM, a semi-distributed watershed model. In order to evaluate the performance and improve the reliability of the model, calibration and validation of the model was done for one flow observation point and three reservoir water storage ratio points. Climate change scenarios were based on RCP data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and bias corrections were done using the Quantile Mapping method to minimize the uncertainties in the results produced by the climate model to the local scale. Because of water mass-balance, evapotranspiration tended to increase steadily with an increase in air temperature, while the increase in RCP 8.5 scenario resulted in higher RCP 4.5 scenario. The increase in evapotranspiration led to a decrease in the river flow, particularly the decrease in the surface runoff. In the paddy agricultural watershed, irrigation water demand is expected to increase despite an increase in rainfall owing to the high evapotranspiration rates occasioned by climate change.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2020

Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea. Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis. Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea. Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.225-236
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• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.49-56
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• 2014

The climate of the earth is expected to change rapidly and continuously. Despite climate change is expected to impact on productivity of crop and livestock, a study for adaptation and impact of livestock to global warming is not enough. This study was performed to develop a method to evaluate the effects of heat stress on dairy cattle. Feedlot environment and health status of livestock were measured through an infrared thermography camera and a temperature-humidity sensor. Environmental factors such as temperature and humidity were measured to calculate the Temperature humidity index (THI). The change of the milk yield was similar to THI data pattern, suggesting that THI might play an important role to predict the effect of climate change on dairy cattle. THI data would be useful to predict long-term climate change effects on dairy cattle with RCP8.5 scenario.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.509-516
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• 2011

The performance of naked neck and normal chicken was evaluated with respect to growth, carcass, immune, biochemical and stress parameters under winter and summer seasons to assess the suitability of naked neck birds under high temperatures in the global scenario of climate change. The growth performance was significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) higher in naked neck chicken in the summer season. The dressing percentage was significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) higher in naked neck birds in both winter and summer season because of reduced plumage. The thigh, giblet and feather proportion significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) varied between naked neck and normal chickens in summer season. The humeral immune response to sheep red blood cells (SRBC), Newcastle disease vaccine (NDV) and cutaneous basophil hypersensitivity (CBH) did not show any significant differences among the chicken groups. The protein and cholesterol concentration observed was within the normal ranges. The total cholesterol levels in plasma were significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) lower in naked neck birds in both the seasons. H:L ratio was significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) lower in summer season indicating less stress in naked neck chicken. Basophil and eosinophil concentration was significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) higher in normal chicken in summer. The lipid peroxidation was higher in full feathered birds under summer stress. The enzyme glutathione reductase (GR) levels were significantly higher during the summer and varied significantly ($p{\leq}0.05$) between the normal and naked neck chicken in both seasons. The results indicated that the naked neck birds performed significantly better at high ambient temperatures with respect to growth, carcass and biochemical parameters. It was concluded that the ability of the naked neck chicken to adapt to high temperatures foresees a viable option for the biological mitigation of climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.6
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• pp.409-419
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• 2024

Climate change is already impacting sustainable water resource management. The influence of climate change on water supply from reservoirs has been generally assessed using climate change scenarios generated based on global climate models. However, inherent uncertainties exist due to the limitations of estimating climate change by assuming IPCC carbon emission scenarios. The decision scaling approach was applied to mitigate these issues in this study focusing on four reservoir watersheds: Chungju, Yongdam, Hapcheon, and Seomjingang reservoirs. The reservoir water supply reliablity was analyzed by combining the rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) and the reservoir operation model based on HEC-ResSim. Water supply reliability analysis was aimed at ensuring the stable operation of dams, and its results ccould be utilized to develop either structural or non-structural water supply plans. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to assess potential risks that might arise during the operation of reserviors under various climate conditions. Using observed precipitation and temperature from 1995 to 2014, 49 climate stress scenarios were developed (7 precipitation scenarios based on quantiles and 7 temperature scenarios ranging from 0℃ to 6℃ at 1℃ intervals). Our study demonstrated that despite an increase in flood season precipitation leading to an increase in reservoir discharge, it had a greater impact on sustainable water management compared to the increase in non-flood season precipitation. Furthermore, in scenarios combining rainfall and temperature, the reliability of reservoir water supply showed greater variations than the sum of individual reliability changes in rainfall and temperature scenarios. This difference was attributed to the opposing effects of decreased and increased precipitation, each causing limitations in water and energy-limited evapotranspiration. These results were expected to enhance the efficiency of reservoir operation.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2017

In order to assess risk of high temperature damages about corn during reproduction stages in the future, we carried out analysis of climate change scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 distributed by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) in 2012. We established two indexes such as average of annual risk days of high temperature damage which express frequency and strengthen index of high temperature damage. As results of producing maps for 157 cities and counties about average of annual risk days of high temperature damage during total periods of scenarios, the risk of high temperature in RCP8.5 was evaluated to increase at all over nation except inland area of Gangwon province, while RCP4.5 showed similar to present, or little higher. The maps of annual risk days of high temperature damage with 10 years interval in RCP8.5 prospected that the risk for damaging corn growth would increase rapidly from 2030's. The largest risk of high temperature damage in the future of RCP8.5 was analyzed at Changnyeong county located east-south inland area in Kyeongnam province, while the smallest of risk counties were Pyeongchang, Taebaek, Inje, and Jeongseon. The prospect at 12 counties which is large to produce corn at present and contains large plains have been showed that there will be only a little increase of risk of high temperature at Goesan, Yangpyeong, Hongcheon, Seosan, and Mooju until 2060's. But considering strengthen index of high temperature damage, most regions analyzed would be prospected to increase rapidly after 2030's. To cope with high temperature damage of corn in the future, we should develop various practical technologies including breeding adapted varieties and controlling cultivation periods.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.275-280
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• 2015

In order to figure out the future drought characteristics of the Jeonju plains, the major crop production area in Korea, daily agricultural drought indexes based on soil water balance were calculated for the relevant 12.5 km by 12.5 km grid cell using the weather data generated by the RCP8.5 climate scenario during 1951-2100. The calculations were grouped into five climatological normal years, the past (1951-1980), the present (1981-2010), and the three futures (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the soil moisture conditions in early spring, worst for both the past and present normal years, will ameliorate gradually in the future and the crop water stress in spring season was projected to become negligible by the end of this century. Furthermore, the drought frequency in early spring was projected to diminish, resulting in rare occurrence of spring drought by that time. However, the result also showed that the soil moisture conditions during the summer season (when most crops grow in Jeonju plain) will deteriorate and the drought incidence will be more frequent than in the past or present period.