• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate change impact assessment

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Projection of Future Water Supply Sustainability in Agricultural Reservoirs under RCP Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 농업용 저수지의 미래 용수공급 지속가능성 전망)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Kim, Taegon;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2014
  • Climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resources such as water supply, water management, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relation to the passage of time is an important component of water resource management for stable water supply maintenance. Changes on rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the future climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to predict the sustainability of agricultural water demand and supply under future climate change by applying an irrigation vulnerability assessment model to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale with respect to potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirement. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply management strategies on reservoir operation under climate change.

Characteristics of GHG emission according to socio-economic by the type of local governments, REPUBLIC OF KOREA (지자체 유형별 사회경제적 특성에 따른 온실가스 배출특성 분석)

  • Park, Chan;Kim, Dai-Gon;Seong, Mi-Ae;Seo, Jeonghyeon;Seol, Sunghee;Hong, You-Deog;Lee, Dong-Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2013
  • Local governments are establishing their own greenhouse gas reduction goal and are playing a important role to respond to climatic changes. However, there are difficulties in quantitative analyses such as estimation of future greenhouse gas emission and computation of reduction potential, which are procedures required to establish mid to long term strategies to realize of low carbon society by each local governments. Also, reduction measures must reflect characteristics of each local government, since the reduction power of each local government can differ according to characteristics of each. In order to establish strategies that reflect characteristics of local governments, types of greenhouse gas emission from cities were classified largely into residential city, commercial city, residential commercial city, agriculture and fishery city, convergence city, and industrial city. As a result of analyzing basic unit of greenhouse gas emission by local government during 2007 in terms of per population, household and GRDP based on the type classification, significant results were deduced for each type. To manage the amount of the national greenhouse gas, reduction measures should be focused on the local governments that emits more than the average of each type's GHG emission.

A Study of Improvement on Estimation Methodology of Carbon Storage amount by Damaged Trees for Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가 온실가스 항목 내 훼손수목의 탄소저장량 평가 개선을 위한 제언)

  • Heon Mo Jeong;Hae Ran Kim;Dukyeop Kim;Inyoung Jang;Sung-Ryong Kang
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.330-340
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    • 2022
  • We deduced the proper estimation methodology for the amount of carbon sequestration by damaged trees for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The nine development projects related to renewable energy, damaged trees occur, assessment status and used method of evaluating the carbon storage of damaged trees were summarized. And after re-calculating the carbon storage of damaged trees through allometric equations, the difference between the two groups, re-calculated the damaged trees carbon storage and the damaged trees carbon storage in the report, was validated. As a result, damaged trees carbon storage in words was more than the re-calculated damaged trees carbon storage, and it was statistically significant (p<0.005). This result means that the existing method for calculating damaged tree carbon storage is overcalculated. It was judged that it was necessary to improve the calculation method. Therefore, allometric equations suitable for each dominated-tree species should be used when calculating the damaged tree carbon storage. Furthermore, we propose to establish a carbon storage calculation system based on actual data from the ecosystem so that researchers can efficiently and accurately the damaged trees carbon storage.

A High-Resolution Agro-Climatic Dataset for Assessment of Climate Change over South Korea (남한지역 기후변화량 평가를 위한 고해상도 농업기후 자료)

  • Hur, Jina;Park, Joo Hyeon;Shim, Kyo Moon;Kim, Yong Seok;Jo, Sera
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.128-134
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    • 2020
  • The daily gridded meteorological information and climatology with high resolution (30m and 270m) was produced from 94 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for the past 50 years (1971-current) by different downscaling methods. In addition, the difference between daily meteorological data and the mean state of past 30 years (1981-2010) was calculated for the analysis of climate change. These datasets with GeoTiff format are available from the web interface (https://agecoclim. agmet.kr). The performance of the data is evaluated using 172 Automatic Weather S tation (AWS ) of Rural Development of Administration (RDA). The data have biases lower than 2.0, and root mean square errors (RMSE) lower than 3.8. This data may help to better understand the regional climatic change and its impact on agroecosystem in S outh Korea.

Analysis of Climate Characteristics Observed over the Korean Peninsula for the Estimation of Climate Change Vulnerability Index (기후변화 취약성 지수 산출을 위한 한반도 관측 기후 특성 분석)

  • Nam, Ki-Pyo;Kang, Jeong-Eon;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.891-905
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    • 2011
  • Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.

Vulnerability Assessment of Maize and Wheat Production to Temperature Change - In Case of USA and China - (기온변화에 대한 옥수수와 밀 생산량 취약성 평가 - 미국과 중국을 사례로 -)

  • Song, Yongho;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kwak, Hanbin;Kim, Moonil;Yang, Seung-Ryong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2013
  • The appearance of abnormal weather caused by climate change have both direct and indirect impact on the society. Especially, agriculture is brought up as a socially important interest having direct impact of climate change in growth and harvest of crops. This study aims to perform vulnerability assessment for the South Korea's two main imported grains, maize and wheat. The production vulnerability assessment of maize and wheat in USA and China to temperature variability, which has a great impact in production, is performed. First, grain cultivation period which affects productivity of main grain production country was selected based on the main cultivation period from several references and previous studies. Then, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 greenhouse gas scenario RCP(representative concentration pathways)8.5 scenarios was used to select the future climate that correspond to the cultivation period of maize and wheat for each producing country. According to the result of production vulnerability analysis using adaptation (temperature changing trend) and sensitivity(temperature variability), the productivity of wheat was higher in USA, while productivity of maize was higher in China. In the future, the result showed that productivity of all two grains will be favorable in USA. The result of production vulnerability assessment through this study can later be used as a preparation data for the coming fluctuation in grain price due to climate change.

Generation of Weather Data for Future Climate Change for South Korea using PRECIS (PRECIS를 이용한 우리나라 기후변화 기상자료의 생성)

  • Lee, Kwan-Ho
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.54-58
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    • 2011
  • According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to start mitigation and adaptation strategies for buildings in order to minimize adverse impacts. It is likely that the South Korea will experience milder winters and hotter and more extreme summers. Those changes will impact on building performance, particularly with regard to cooling and ventilation, with implications for the quality of the indoor environment, energy consumption and carbon emissions. This study generate weather data for future climate change for use in impacts studies using PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impacts Studies). These scenarios and RCM (Regional Climate Model) are provided high-resolution climate-change predictions for a region generally consistent with the continental-scale climate changes predicted in the GCM (Global Climate Model).

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A study on the risk assessment of climate crisis adaptation measures in public sewage treatment facilities (공공하수처리시설의 기후위기 적응대책 위험도 평가 연구)

  • Jaekyung Choi;Younsun Lee;Sunghwan Hwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2024
  • In the context of the Ministry of Environment's 2022 Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Public Institutions, public sewage treatment plants are one of the important targets for climate change response aimed at sustainable water management. In this study, it is applied a modified methodology to four water regeneration centers (public sewage treatment facilities) in charge of sewage treatment in Seoul to analyze the impacts and risks of climate change and discuss priorities for adaptation measures. The results of the study showed that heavy rains, heat waves, and droughts will be the key impacts of climate change, and highlighted the need for measures to mitigate these risks, especially for facility managers.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

  • SUNG, Sunyong;KWON, Yong-Su;LEE, Dong Kun;CHO, Youngho
    • Entomological Research
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2018
  • The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

Habitat prediction and impact assessment of Neolitsea sericea (Blume) Koidz. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 참식나무 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Nakao, Katsuhiro;Kim, Jung-Hyun;Kim, Sun-Yu;Park, Chan-Ho;Lee, Byoung-Yoon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2014
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Neolitsea sericea, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and three climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Three general circulation models under A1B emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for N. sericea. The model of distribution for N. sericea constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of N. sericea. The area above the $-4.4^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the N. sericea. Future PHs for N. sericea were projected to increase respectively by 4 times, 6.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of N. sericea habitats is expanded gradually. N. sericea is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. N. sericea is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.