• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate Variables

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Analysis of Climate Change Researches Related to Water Resources in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 수자원분야 기후변화 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Noel
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2012
  • The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

Drought Forecasting with Regionalization of Climate Variables and Generalized Linear Model

  • Yejin Kong;Taesam Lee;Joo-Heon Lee;Sejeong Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.249-249
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    • 2023
  • Spring drought forecasting in South Korea is essential due to the sknewness of rainfall which could lead to water shortage especially in spring when managed without prediction. Therefore, drought forecasting over South Korea was performed in the current study by thoroughly searching appropriate predictors from the lagged global climate variable, mean sea level pressure(MSLP), specifically in winter season for forecasting time lag. The target predictand defined as accumulated spring precipitation(ASP) was driven by the median of 93 weather stations in South Korea. Then, it was found that a number of points of the MSLP data were significantly cross-correlated with the ASP, and the points with high correlation were regionally grouped. The grouped variables with three regions: the Arctic Ocean (R1), South Pacific (R2), and South Africa (R3) were determined. The generalized linear model(GLM) was further applied for skewed marginal distribution in drought prediction. It was shown that the applied GLM presents reasonable performance in forecasting ASP. The results concluded that the presented regionalization of the climate variable, MSLP can be a good alternative in forecasting spring drought.

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Change Prediction for Potential Habitats of Warm-temperate Evergreen Broad-leaved Trees in Korea by Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 잠재 생육지 변화 예측)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Nakao, Katsuhiro;Park, Chan-Ho;Lee, Byoung-Yoon;Oh, Kyoung-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.590-600
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    • 2011
  • The research was carried out for prediction of the potential habitats of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees under the current climate(1961~1990) and three climate change scenario(2081~2100) (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2 and HADCM3-A2) using classification tree(CT) model. Presence/absence records of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees were extracted from actual distribution data as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. Potential habitats(PH) was predicted 28,230$km^2$ under the current climate and 77,140~89,285$km^2$ under the three climate change scenarios. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 8,274$km^2$ and the proportion of PHLU within PH was 29.3% under the current climate. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 35,177~45,170$km^2$ and increased 26.9~36.9% under the three climate change scenarios. The expansion of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees by climate change progressed habitat fragmentation by restriction of land use. The habitats increase of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees had been expected competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest and suggested the expand and northward shift of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest zone.

Nonlinear Multivariable Analysis of SOI, Precipitation, and Temperature in Fukuoka, Japan

  • Jin, Young-Hoon;Akira, Kawamura;Kenji, Jinno;Ronny, Berndtsson
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.124-133
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    • 2004
  • Global climate variations are expected to affect local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is one of the major driving forces that give impact on regional and local climatic variation. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strong nonlinear variation patterns. In this paper, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using by a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phase-space variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena.

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Canonical correlation between organizational characteristics and barrier to medication error reporting of nurses (간호사가 인식한 조직의 특성과 투약오류보고장애요인간의 정준상관관계)

  • Kim, Min-Jeong;Kim, Myoung Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.979-988
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between nurse's perception of organizational characteristics including safety climate and work environment and barrier to medication error reporting. Methods: We surveyed 334 nurses from 7 hospitals. An assessment survey was consisted of modified safety climate scale, practice environment scale and barrier to medication error reporting. The data were collected from September 2012. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, canonical correlation were used. Results: Organizational characteristics were related to barrier to medication error reporting with three significant canonical variables. The first canonical correlation coefficient was .50(Wilks' ${\lambda}$=0.61, df=32, p<.001), that of the second was .35(Wilks' ${\lambda}$=0.81, df=21, p<.001) and that of the third was .22(Wilks' ${\lambda}$=0.93, df=12, p=.018). The first variate indicated higher perception of safety climate variables and work environment variables were related lower barrier to medication error reporting variables except fear for error reporting. The second variate showed higher perception of 'safety climate between healthcare provider' and higher 'nurse participation in hospital affairs' and 'staffing and resource adequacy' were related to lower 'fear' and 'administrative response' in barrier to medication error reporting variables. Conclusion: Strategies for barrier to medication error reporting and improvement of organizational characteristics including safety climate and work environment should be implemented.

An Effect of Organizational Security Climate on Individual's Opportunistic Security Behavior: An Empirical Study (조직의 보안 분위기가 개인의 기회주의 행동에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증 연구)

  • Yim, Myung-Seong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.31-46
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    • 2012
  • Drawing upon Griffin and Neal's safety climate and performance model, this study developed an information security climate model. Research model is composed of three research variables that include information security climate, information security compliance attitude, and opportunistic security behavior. Results of the study strongly support the fundamental proposition that the organizational security climate has significant positive influence on the individual's opportunistic security behavior. However, the study also reveals that the organizational climate may not directly associate with the reduction of opportunistic security behavior. Rather the organizational security climate nurtures the favorable attitude of the employee towards the compliance of information security, which in turn discourages opportunistic security behavior.

Analysis of a Causal Model about the Relationship of Environmental Variables to Children's Intellectual Ability (아동의 지적능력과 환경변인 간의 인과 모형 분석)

  • Jang, Young Ae
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.83-112
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    • 1987
  • This study examined the characteristics of the relationship of home environment variables and children's intellectual ability. Two studies were conducted: Study I examined the predictability of home environment variables for children's intellectual ability by children's age and the correlations between environment variables and children's intellectual ability. Study II investigated causal relationships among the variables which are supposed to affect children's intellectual ability. The subjects of this study were 240 children at age four, six and eight attending nursery schools, kindergartens and elementary schools and their mothers. Instruments included the Inventory of Home Stimulation (HOME), inventory of sociodemographic variables, and the K-Binet scale. The results obtained from this study were as follows: 1) Home environment variables had a significant positive correlation (.36 ~ .78) with children's intellectual ability. 2) The home environmental variables that significantly predicted children's intellectual ability differed according to children's age. That is, play materials, breadth of experience, and quality of language environment were predictive of children's intellectual ability at age four, while parent's education, developmental stimulation, and play materials were predictive at age six. Economic status of the home, need gratification, avoidance of restriction, and emotional climate were predictive at age eight. 3) The causal model of home environment affecting children's intellectual ability was formulated by exogenous variables (parent education and economic status of the home) and by endogenous variables (direct stimulation, indirect stimulation and the emotional climate of the home). 4) The results of the analysis of the causal model showed that the kind of variables that affected children's intellectual ability directly differed according to children's age. That is, direct stimulation and parent's education affected children's intellectual ability directly at age four and six, while the economic status of the home and indirect stimulation affected intellectual ability directly at age eight. The amount of variance that explained children's intellectual ability increased with increase in children's age.

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Understanding Climate Change over East Asia under Stabilized 1.5 and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios (1.5/2.0℃ 지구온난화 시나리오 기반의 동아시아 기후변화 분석)

  • Shim, Sungbo;Kwon, Sang-Hoon;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Yum, Seong Soo;Byun, Young-Hwa
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2019
  • This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.

Degree of the Contribution of Disaster and Safety Education as an Index of Climate Change Vulnerability (기후변화 취약성 평가지표로서 재난안전교육의 기여도 산정)

  • Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.5349-5354
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    • 2014
  • Climate change is one of the most important factors increasing a system's vulnerability. Therefore, various methods have been applied to evaluate the vulnerability to develop an appropriate adaptation policy to minimize the effects of climate change. On the other hand, it has barely been used to examine the suitability of the selected proxy variables to calculate the vulnerability. In this study, it was shown that the degree of disaster and safety education should be considered as one of the proxy variables in non-structural measures when the vulnerability is calculated using an expert survey. As a result, the degree of the contribution on the climate change vulnerability can be different according to the education target and the characteristics of various systems. The results might be useful for developing a climate change adaptation policy in a specific area.

Assessment of Historical and Future Climatic Trends in Seti-Gandaki Basin of Nepal. A study based on CMIP6 Projections

  • Bastola Shiksha;Cho Jaepil;Jung Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.162-162
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is a complex phenomenon having its impact on diverse sectors. Temperature and precipitation are two of the most fundamental variables used to characterize climate, and changes in these variables can have significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies. This study evaluated the historical (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) climatic trends in the Seti-Gandaki basin of Nepal based on 5 km resolution Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-85 scenarios. For this study, ERA5 reanalysis dataset is used for historical reference dataset instead of observation dataset due to a lack of good observation data in the study area. Results show that the basin has experienced continuous warming and an increased precipitation pattern in the historical period, and this rising trend is projected to be more prominent in the future. The Seti basin hosts 13 operational hydropower projects of different sizes, with 10 more planned by the government. Consequently, the findings of this study could be leveraged to design adaptation measures for existing hydropower schemes and provide a framework for policymakers to formulate climate change policies in the region. Furthermore, the methodology employed in this research could be replicated in other parts of the country to generate precise climate projections and offer guidance to policymakers in devising sustainable development plans for sectors like irrigation and hydropower.

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