• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate Change Risk Assessment

Search Result 146, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

Remote Sensing-assisted Disaster Monitoring and Risk Analysis (원격탐사를 활용한 연속적 재난상황 인지 및 위험 모니터링 기술)

  • Im, Jungho;Sohn, Hong-Gyoo;Kim, Duk-jin;Choi, Jinmu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.36 no.5_3
    • /
    • pp.1007-1011
    • /
    • 2020
  • Recently, natural and anthropogenic disasters have rapidly increased due to the on-going climate change and various human activities. Remote sensing (RS) technology enables the continuous monitoring and rapid detection of disastrous events thanks to its advantages covering vast areas at high temporal resolution. Moreover, RS technology has been very actively used in disaster monitoring and assessment since cluster- and micro-satellites and drones were introduced and became popular. In this special issue, nine papers were introduced, including the processing and applications of remote sensing data for monitoring, assessment, and prediction of various natural disasters. These papers are expected to serve as useful references for disaster management in the future.

Landslide Risk Assessment in Inje Using Logistic Regression Model (로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 인제군 산사태지역의 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Hwan-Gil;Kim, Gi-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.30 no.3
    • /
    • pp.313-321
    • /
    • 2012
  • Korea has been continuously affected by landslides, as 70% of the land is covered by mountains and most of annual rainfall concentrates between June and September. Recently, abrupt climate change affects the increase of landslide occurrence. Gangwon region is especially suffered by landslide damages, because the most of the part is mountainous, steep, and having shallow soil. In this study, a landslide risk assessment model was developed by applying logistic regression to the various data of Duksan-ri, Inje-eup, Inje-gun, Gangwon-do, which has suffered massive landslide triggered by heavy rain in July 2006. The information collected from field investigation and aerial photos right after the landslide of study area were stored in GIS DB for analysis. Slope gradient entered in two ways-as categorical variable and as linear variable. Error matrix for each case was made, and developed model showed the classification accuracy of 81.4% and 81.9%, respectively.

Freeze Risk Assessment for Three Major Peach Growing Areas under the Future Climate Projected by RCP8.5 Emission Scenario (신 기후변화시나리오 RCP 8.5에 근거한 복숭아 주산지 세 곳의 동해위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.124-131
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

An Assessment of Flooding Risk Using Flash Flood Index in North Korea - Focus on Imjin Basin - (돌발홍수 지수를 이용한 북한 홍수 위험도 평가 - 임진강 유역을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwak, Chang Jae;Choi, Woo Jung;Cho, Jae Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.48 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1037-1049
    • /
    • 2015
  • The most of natural disasters that occur in North Korea are flood, typhoon and damage from heavy rain. The damage caused by those disasters since the mid-1990s is aggravating North Korea's economic difficulties every year. By recognizing the seriousness of the damages from the floods, the North Korean government has carried out the river maintenance, farmland restoration, land readjustment and afforestation projects since the last-1990s, but it has failed preventing the damages. In order to estimate the degree of flood risk regarding damage from chronic floods that occur inveterately in North Korea, this research conducted an additional simulation for rainfall-runoff analysis to reflect the characteristics of the ungauged area that make foreign countries hard to obtain the hydrological data and do not open the topographical data to public. In addition, this research estimates the degree of flood risk by selecting the factors of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability by following the standards of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Estimation of Peak Water Level Based on Observed Records and Assessment of Inundation in Coastal Area - A Case Study in Haeundae, Busan City - (관측자료에 기반한 미래 해수위 예측 및 연안지역 침수위험면적 분석 - 부산시 해운대구 일대를 대상으로 -)

  • Ahn, Saekyul;Lee, Dongkun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.445-456
    • /
    • 2017
  • For impact assessment of inundation in coastal area due to sea level rise (SLR), model for estimating future peak water level was constructed using observed mean sea level (MSL), storm surge level (SSL) data and calculated tide level (TL) data. Based on time series analysis and quadratic polynomial model for SLR and Monte-Carlo simulation for IC, SSL and TL, 100-year return peak water level is expected to be 2.3, 2.6, 2.8m, respectively (each corresponding to year 2050, 2080, 2100). Further analysis on future potential inundation area showed U-dong, Yongho-dong, Songjeong-dong, Jaesong-dong to be at high risk.

Risk Assessment of Levee Embankment Applying Reliability Index (신뢰도 지수를 적용한 하천제방의 위험도 평가)

  • Ahn, Ki-Hong;Han, Kun-Yeun;Kim, Byung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.42 no.7
    • /
    • pp.547-558
    • /
    • 2009
  • General reliability assessment of levees embankment is performed with safety factors for rainfall characteristics and hydrologic and hydraulic parameters, based on the results of deterministic analysis. The safety factors are widely employed in the field of engineering handling model parameters and the diversity of material properties, but cannot explain every natural phenomenon. Uncertainty of flood analysis and related parameters by introducing stochastic method rather than deterministic scheme will be required to deal with extreme weather and unprecedented flood due to recent climate change. As a consequence, stochastic-method-based measures considering parameter uncertainty and related factors are being established. In this study, a variety of dimensionless cumulative rainfall curve for typhoon and monsoon season of July to September with generation method of stochastic temporal variation is generated by introducing Monte Carlo method and applied to the risk assessment of levee embankment using reliability index. The result of this study reflecting temporal and regional characteristics of a rainfall can be used for the establishment of flood defence measures, hydraulic structure design and analysis on a watershed.

International Research Trends in Science-Related Risk Education: A Bibliometric Analysis (상세 서지분석을 통한 과학과 관련된 위험 교육의 국제 연구 동향 분석)

  • Wonbin Jang;Minchul Kim
    • Journal of Science Education
    • /
    • v.48 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-90
    • /
    • 2024
  • Contemporary society faces increasingly diverse risks with expanding impacts. In response, the importance of science education has become more prominent. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of existing research on science-related risk education and derives implications for such education. Using detailed bibliometric analysis, we collected citation data from 83 international scholarly journals (SSCI) in the field of education indexed in the Web of Science with the keywords 'Scientific Risk.' Subsequently, using the bibliometrix package in R-Studio, we conducted a bibliometric analysis. The findings are as follows. Firstly, research on risk education covers topics such as risk literacy, the structure of risks addressed in science education, and the application and effectiveness of incorporating risk cases into educational practices. Secondly, a significant portion of research on risks related to science education has been conducted within the framework of socioscientific issues (SSI) education. Thirdly, it was observed that research on risks related to science education primarily focuses on the transmission of scientific knowledge, with many studies examining formal education settings such as curricula and school learning environments. These findings imply several key points. Firstly, to effectively address risks in contemporary society, the scope of risk education should extend beyond topics such as nuclear energy and climate change to encompass broader issues like environmental pollution, AI, and various aspects of daily life. Secondly, there is a need to reexamine and further research topics explored in the context of SSI education within the framework of risk education. Thirdly, it is necessary to analyze not only risk perception but also risk assessment and risk management. Lastly, there is a need for research on implementing risk education practices in informal educational settings, such as science museums and media.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Offsite Power System Under Typhoon-induced High Wind (소외전력망의 태풍 동반 강풍 확률론적 안전성 평가)

  • Kim, Gungyu;Kwag, Shinyoung;Eem, Seunghyun;Jin, Seung-Seop
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.44 no.3
    • /
    • pp.277-282
    • /
    • 2024
  • Recently, the intensity and frequency of typhoons have been increasing due to climate change, and typhoons can cause a loss of offsite power (LOOP) at nuclear power plants (NPPs). Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for typhoon-induced high winds through the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of offsite power systems. However, research on PSA for offsite power system in NPPs under typhoon-induced high winds is still lacking. In this study, PSA was performed for offsite power systems subjected to typhoon-induced high winds at the Kori NPP site, which has experienced frequent damages to its offsite power system among NPP sites in Korea. In order to perform PSA for typhoon-induced high winds in offsite power systems, the typhoon hazard at Kori NPP site was derived using logic tree and Monte Carlo simulation. Utilizing the fragility of components constituting the power system, performed a fragility analysis of the power system. Lastly, the probability that offsite power system will not be able to supply power to the NPP was derived.

Setting a Direction for United States Water Policy

  • Reid, Kenneth D.;Engberg, Richard A.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2010.05a
    • /
    • pp.121-121
    • /
    • 2010
  • The water resources of the United States are increasingly at risk and the nation's water policy is in serious difficulty. Water resources protection laws primarily passed since 1950 often contradict water resources development laws passed before 1950. These contradictions complicate efficient and effective responses to the nation's water resources challenges including climate change, our aging infrastructures, changing population dynamics, drought, floods, wetlands and aquatic species loss, ecosystem restoration and many others. In addition, water law and policy determination, management and enforcement are so broadly distributed between, local, state and federal responsibilities that effective responses again are difficult. For example, at the national level alone, more than a dozen federal agencies have water resources responsibilities including resource development, resource assessment, and resource protection. They are presided over by six cabinet (Ministerial) departments, at least 13 congressional (parliamentarian) committees and 23 subcommittees, and are funded by five appropriations subcommittees. Lastly, good science and the public accountability associated with it are often overshadowed by political considerations at local, state and federal levels. The United States approach to solving water resources challenges is ad hoc - we address problems as they appear or as they merit political support rather than using good science to address our long term water resources needs.

  • PDF

Hydrologic Safety Evaluation of Small Scale Reservoir by Simplified Assesment Method (간편법에 의한 소규모저수지의 수문학적 안전성 평가)

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Yang, Seung-Man;Kim, Seong-Joon;Kang, Boo-Sik
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.53 no.2
    • /
    • pp.9-17
    • /
    • 2011
  • Based on the statistical annual report, there are 17,649 reservoirs are operating for the purpose of agricultural water supply in Korea. 58 % of entire agricultural reservoirs had been constructed before 1948 which indicate the termination of required service life and rest of those reservoirs have also exposed to the dam break risk by extreme flood event caused by current ongoing climate change. To prevent damages from dam failure accident of these risky small size dams, it is necessary to evaluate and manage the structural and hydrological safety of the reservoirs. In this study, a simplified evaluation method for hydrologic safety of dam is suggested by using Rational and Creager formula. Hydrologic safety of small scale dams has evaluated by calculating flood discharge capacity of the spillway and compares the results with design frequency of each reservoir. Applicability and stability of suggested simplified method have examined and reviewd by comparing the results from rainfall-runoff modeling with dam break simulation using HEC-HMS. Application results of developed methodology for three sample reservoirs show that simplified assessment method tends to calculate greater inflow to the reservoirs then HEC-HMS model which lead lowered hydrologic safety of reservoirs. Based on the results of application, it is expected that the developed methodology can be adapted as useful tool for small scale reservoir's hydrologic safety evaluation.