Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimation of Peak Water Level Based on Observed Records and Assessment of Inundation in Coastal Area - A Case Study in Haeundae, Busan City -

관측자료에 기반한 미래 해수위 예측 및 연안지역 침수위험면적 분석 - 부산시 해운대구 일대를 대상으로 -

  • Received : 2017.10.24
  • Accepted : 2017.12.11
  • Published : 2017.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

For impact assessment of inundation in coastal area due to sea level rise (SLR), model for estimating future peak water level was constructed using observed mean sea level (MSL), storm surge level (SSL) data and calculated tide level (TL) data. Based on time series analysis and quadratic polynomial model for SLR and Monte-Carlo simulation for IC, SSL and TL, 100-year return peak water level is expected to be 2.3, 2.6, 2.8m, respectively (each corresponding to year 2050, 2080, 2100). Further analysis on future potential inundation area showed U-dong, Yongho-dong, Songjeong-dong, Jaesong-dong to be at high risk.

해수면상승으로 인한 연안지역의 영향평가를 위해 부산시 해운대구 일대를 대상으로 해수위 예측모형과 미래 침수위험지역 분석을 수행하였다. 과거 평균해수위자료(1960-2016)를 활용한 통계적 분석을 통해 해수면상승 예측 모형과 불규칙 성분을 산정하고 파고자료(2012-2017)와 계산 조위값의 확률밀도함수와 종합하여 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해 해수면상승, 불규칙 성분, 파고, 조위를 종합한 미래 최고해수위를 모의하였다. 이에 미래 1% 발생가능성 최고해수위는 2050, 2080, 2100년 2.3, 2.6, 2.8m로 나타났으며, 침수위험지역은 우동, 용호동, 송정동, 재송동이 가장 클 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

  1. Abadie LM, Galarraga I, Murieta ES. 2017. Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability. high-impact coastal events in cities. Environmental Research Letters. 120-014017.
  2. Campbell SD, Diebold FX. 2005. Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 100(469): 6-16. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214504000001051
  3. Cho KW. 2002. Sea-level trend at the Korean coast. Journal of Environment Science. 11(11): 1141-1147. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5322/JES.2002.11.11.1141
  4. Church JA et al. 2013. Sea level change. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge. United Kingdom and New York. NY. USA: Cambridge University Press.
  5. Foster G, Brown PT. 2015. Time and tide: analysis of sea level time series. Climate Dynamics. 45: 291-308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2224-3
  6. Kim DY, Park SH, Woo SB, Jeong KY, Lee EI. 2017. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge around the Southeastern Coast of Korea. Journal of Coastal Research. SI(79): 239-243.
  7. Kim KY, Kim YJ. 2017. A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula. Climatic Change. 142(1-2): 23-36. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8
  8. KOSIS (KOrean Statistical Information Service). 2017. Domestic Statistics. [Korean Literature]
  9. Kwon HH, Uranchimeg S, Kim YT. 2016. Estimating the Accelerated Sea Level Rise along the Korean Peninsula Using Multiscale Analysis. Journal of Coastal Research. SI(75): 770-774.
  10. Lee SY, Choi JM. 2011. Analysis for Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise Case Study: Haeundae Gu, Busan. Korean Geographical Society. 46(5): 597-607. [Korean Literature]
  11. Liu X, Zhang Z, Peterson J, Chandra S. 2007. LiDAR-Derived High Quality Ground Control Information and DEM for Image Orthorectification. GeoInformatica. 11(1):37-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10707-006-0005-9
  12. MATLAB 2017a. The MathWorks Inc, Natick. 2017.
  13. National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present and Future. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13389.
  14. Oh NS. 2005. Sea Level Rise at the South Western Coast of Korean Peninsula. International Journal of Navigation and Port Research. 29(4): 327-333. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2005.29.4.327
  15. Park SJ, Lee DK, Sung SY, Jung TY. 2014. Risk Assessment of Potential Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise Using Bayesian Network. Korea Planning Association. 49(2): 347-358. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.17208/jkpa.2014.04.49.2.347
  16. Prahl BF, Rybski D, Boettle M, Kropp JP. 2016. Damage functions for climate-related hazards: Unification and uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards Earth System Science. 16(5): 1189-1203. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016
  17. PSMSL. 2013. Permanent service for mean sea level data. http://www.psmsl.org/data/ obtaining.
  18. Youn YH, Oh IS, Park YH, Kim KH. 2004. Climate variabilities of sea level around the Korean Peninsula. Advanced Atmosphere Science. 21(4): 617-626. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915729

Cited by

  1. 이산형 웨이블릿 변환을 통한 조위 자료 내 파고 성분 분리 vol.21, pp.4, 2019, https://doi.org/10.17663/jwr.2019.21.4.365