• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate Change 2013

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Outlook for consumption of subtropical vegetables and required cultivation area (아열대채소의 소비량과 필요재배면적 전망)

  • Lee, Hong-Jin;Kim, Sung-Yong;Kim, Yun-Sik;Jeon, Sang-Gon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.425-434
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, the korean peninsula has endured weather changes toward to the subtropical climate. Also demographical structure has changed into multi-cultural society in which many people from subtropical areas have immigrated into Korea. Therefore, consumption and production of subtropical vegetables become important. For the analysis, we choose eight important subtropical crops. EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) with many parameters and elasticities is used for the forecast of consumption and required cultivation area. The simulation focuses on the changes of the number of foreign workers and immigrated women in Korea to predict the quantity of consumption and required area in Korea. The results show that we need additional land area about 581~1,065 ha for the cropping subtropical vegetables in Korea. Finally, these required area can be provided by the cities and counties in coast area in Gyeongsangnam-Do, Jeonranam-Do and Jeju-Do. Climate change will be continued in the future. Together with climate change, the change of demographical structure into multi-culture may increase consumption and production of subtropical vegetables. Forecasting of increased consumption and required cultivation area for subtropical vegetables is significant.

Pathogenicity and Host Range of Pathogen Causing Black Raspberry (Rubus coreanus) Anthracnose in Korea (복분자딸기 탄저병균의 병원성과 기주범위)

  • Jeong, Uh Seong;Kim, Ju Hee;Lee, Ki Kwon;Cheong, Seong Soo;Lee, Wang Hyu
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.121-123
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    • 2013
  • The strains of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, C. coccodes, C. acutatum isolated from black raspberry were pathogenic to apple and strawberry after dropping inoculation, but showed weak pathogenicity in hot-pepper and tomato. The anthracnose pathogens of C. gloeosporioides, C. orbiculare, C. acutatum isolated from apple, hot-pepper and pumpkin showed pathogenicity in black raspberry. Moreover, the anthracnose pathogens isolated from apple caused disease symptoms in non-wounded inoculation.

Development of Meteorologic Data Retrieval Program for Vulnerability Assessment to Natural Hazards (재해 취약성 평가를 위한 기상자료 처리 프로그램 MetSystem 개발)

  • Jang, Min-Won;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2013
  • Climate change is the most direct threatening factors in sustaining agricultural productivity. It is necessary to reduce the damages from the natural hazards such as flood, drought, typhoons, and snowstorms caused by climate change. Through the vulnerability assessment to adapt the climate change, it is possible to analyze the priority, feasibility, effect of the reduction policy. For the vulnerability assessment, broad amount of weather data for each meterological station are required. Making the database management system for the meteorologic data could troubleshoot of the difficulties lie in handling and processing the weather data. In this study, we generated the meteorologic data retrieval system (MetSystem) for climate change vulnerability assessment. The user interface of MetSystem was implemented in the web-browser so as to access to a database server at any time and place, and it provides different query executions according to the criteria of meteorologic stations, temporal range, meteorologic items, statistics, and range of values, as well as the function of exporting to Excel format (*.xls). The developed system is expected that it will make it easier to try different analyses of vulnerability to natural hazards by the simple access to meteorologic database and the extensive search functions.

Flood Risk for Power Plant using the Hydraulic Model and Adaptation Strategy

  • Nguyen, Thanh Tuu;Kim, Seungdo;Van, Pham Dang Tri;Lim, Jeejae;Yoo, Beomsik;Kim, Hyeonkyeong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 2017
  • This paper provides a mathematical approach for estimating flood risks due to the effects of climate change by developing a one dimensional (1D) hydraulic model for the mountainous river reaches located close to the Yeongwol thermal power plant. Input data for the model, including topographical data and river discharges measured every 10 minutes from July $1^{st}$ to September $30^{th}$, 2013, were imported to a 1D hydraulic model. Climate change scenarios were estimated by referencing the climate change adaptation strategies of the government and historical information about the extreme flood event in 2006. The down stream boundary was determined as the friction slope, which is 0.001. The roughness coefficient of the main channels was determined to be 0.036. The results show the effectiveness of the riverbed widening strategy through the six flooding scenarios to reduce flood depth and flow velocity that impact on the power plant. In addition, the impact of upper Namhan River flow is more significant than Dong River.

Estimating Litter Carbon Stock and Change on Forest in Gangwon Province from the National Forestry Inventory Data (국가산림자원조사 자료를 활용한 강원도 산림내 낙엽층의 탄소저장량 및 변화량 추정)

  • Lee, Sun Jeoung;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yeong Mo;Yim, Jong Su
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to estimate litter carbon stock change from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data for national greenhouse gas inventory report. Litter carbon stocks were calculated from the NFI dataset in NFI5 (2008) and NFI6 (2013) in Gangwon province. Total carbon stock change of litter was $0.68{\pm}0.71\;t\;C/ha$ from NFI5 (2008) to NFI6 (2013), however, there was no significant difference between the both dataset at 2008 and 2013 year. Litter carbon stock of coniferous stands was higher than deciduous stands in NFI5 (2008) and NFI6 (2013) (P<0.05). This study was limited to pilot study, so we will assess litter carbon stock using more complete data from NFI systems. It can be used as data sources for national greenhouse gas inventory report on forest sector.

Development and Policy Applications of Integrated Information System for Climate Change Adaptation (기후변화 적응 정보 통합지원 체계구축 및 정책적 활용방안)

  • Kim, Geunhan;Lee, Moung-Jin;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Park, Songmi;Lee, Eunjin
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.3-20
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    • 2013
  • Recently, impacts and damages of extreme climate change have already affected on worldwide. Thus adaptation and action plan are essential concepts in minimizing the impacts of climate change. In order to introduce climate change adaptation decision-making measure, the need for high-quality and integrated information system within adaptation policy has increased enormously. However, most of adaptation information is based on different sources and various backgrounds. Currently, domestic climate change information is disseminated from about 132 internet sites and most of them are limited to general information of climate change, rather than information that are based on scientific evidence. Also, there are some difficulties in updating new resources. Reliable climate change information is provided from different agencies, which makes users difficult to locate right information they need. As a progress to overcome the limitations of these problems, we carried out a feasibility research on integrated information system for climate change adaptation. For the objectives, our solutions are as follows. First, we analyzed definition of climate change adaptation and climate change adaptation information. Second, we suggested integrating the information system for adaptation and phased implementation plan for establishing integrated information system for climate change. Finally, we verified the establishment of integrated support system based on policy applications of integrated information system. This system will provide an integrated climate change information and be a very useful tool to support the decision making process of effective climate change adaptation policies.

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Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Propagation Over The Han River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 한강 유역의 확률론적 가뭄 전이 분석)

  • Muhammad, Nouman Sattar;Kim, Ji-Eun;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2019
  • The knowledge about drought propagation is very important in accurate estimation of hydrological drought characteristics and efficient development of early warning system. This study investigated a probabilistic relationship of drought propagation based on Bayesian network model for historic period and for future projection under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 over the Han River basin. The results revealed that the propagation rate and lag time have increasing and decreasing trends from the historic period of 1967-2013 to the future periods of 2014-2053 and 2054-2100 under climate change, respectively. The probabilistic results of Bayesian model revealed that the probability of occurrence of lag time varied spatially and decreased when the intensity of meteorological drought changed from moderate to severe and extreme condition during 1967-2013. The values of probability increased in the first future period of 2014-2053 in several sub-basins and slight decreased in the second period of 2054-2100. The proposed probabilistic results will be useful for the decision makers to develop related policies with an appropriate insight toward the future drought status.

Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment using Bias-Correction Technique for Future Climate Scenarios (미래 기상 시나리오에 대한 편의 보정 방법에 따른 지역 기후변화 영향 평가의 불확실성)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Her, Young Gu;Chang, Seungwoo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2013
  • It is now generally known that dynamical climate modeling outputs include systematic biases in reproducing the properties of atmospheric variables such as, preciptation and temerature. There is thus, general consensus among the researchers about the need of bias-correction process prior to using climate model results especially for hydrologic applications. Among the number of bias-correction methods, distribution (e.g., cumulative distribution fuction, CDF) mapping based approach has been evaluated as one of the skillful techniques. This study investigates the uncertainty of using various CDF mapping-based methods for bias-correciton in assessing regional climate change Impacts. Two different dynamicailly-downscaled Global Circulation Model results (CCSM and GFDL under ARES4 A2 scenario) using Regional Spectial Model for retrospective peiod (1969-2000) and future period (2039-2069) were collected over the west central Florida. Total 12 possible methods (i.e., 3 for developing distribution by each of 4 for estimating biases in future projections) were examined and the variations among the results using different methods were evaluated in various ways. The results for daily temperature showed that while mean and standard deviation of Tmax and Tmin has relatively small variation among the bias-correction methods, monthly maximum values showed as significant variation (~2'C) as the mean differences between the retrospective simulations and future projections. The accuracy of raw preciptiation predictions was much worse than temerature and bias-corrected results appreared to be more significantly influenced by the methodologies. Furthermore the uncertainty of bias-correction was found to be relevant to the performance of climate model (i.e., CCSM results which showed relatively worse accuracy showed larger variation among the bias-correction methods). Concludingly bias-correction methodology is an important sourse of uncertainty among other processes that may be required for cliamte change impact assessment. This study underscores the need to carefully select a bias-correction method and that the approach for any given analysis should depend on the research question being asked.

Study on Sensitivity of different Standardization Methods to Climate Change Vulnerability Index (표준화 방법에 따른 기후변화 취약성 지수의 민감성 연구)

  • Nam, Ki-Pyo;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.677-693
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    • 2013
  • IPCC showed that calculation of climate vulnerability index requires standardization process of various proxy variables for the estimation of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In this study, four different methodologies of standardization methods: Z-score, Rescaling, Ranking, and Distance to the reference country, are employed to evaluate climate vulnerability-VRI (Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator) over Korean peninsula, and the error ranges of VRI, arising from employing the different standardization are estimated. All of proxy variables are provided by CCGIS (Climate Change adaptation toolkit based on GIS) which hosts information on both past and current socio-economic data and climate and environmental IPCC SRES (A2, B1, A1B, A1T, A1FI, and A1 scenarios) climate data for the decades of 2000s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s. The results showed that Z-score and Rescaling methods showed statistically undistinguishable results with minor differences of spatial distribution, while Ranking and Distance to the reference country methods showed some possibility to lead the different ranking of VRI among South Korean provinces, depending on the local characteristics and reference province. The resultant VRIs calculated from different standardization methods showed Cronbach's alpha of more than 0.84, indicating that all of different methodologies were overall consistent. Similar horizontal distributions were shown with the same trends: VRI increases as province is close to the coastal region and/or it close toward lower latitude, and decreases as it is close to urbanization area. Other characteristics of the four different standardization are discussed in this study.

Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin (기후변화 시나리오하의 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Choi, Chul Uong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.