Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science (대한공간정보학회지)

Korea Spatial Information Society (대한공간정보학회)
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Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin

기후변화 시나리오하의 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향 분석

  • 김진수 (부경대학교 공간정보연구소) ;
  • 최철웅 (부경대학교 공간정보시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2013.05.07
  • Accepted : 2013.06.20
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.

본 연구는 새로운 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP 시나리오의 스토리라인을 기반으로 미래 토지피복변화를 예측하고, RCP 시나리오하의 미래 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 그 목적을 둔다. RCP 4.5 및 8.5하의 기후 자료가 기후변화 시나리오로 사용되었고, 토지피복변화 시나리오는 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 스토리라인과 로지스틱 회귀모형(LR)을 이용하여 개발된 모델에 의해 생성되었다. 기후변화만 고려한 경우, 토지피복변화만 고려한 경우로 두 가지 시나리오를 설정하고, 각각의 시나리오에 따른 대상 유역 내 유출량을 모의한 결과는 유출량의 계절적 변화를 뚜렷이 나타내었다. 기후변화는 봄과 겨울에 유출량을 증가, 여름과 가을에 유출량을 감소시키는 것으로 예측되었다. 반면 토지피복변화는 기후변화에 비해 상대적으로 유역 내 유출량 변화에 미소한 영향을 주지만, 강수 유무에 따라 유출량의 증가 및 감소 패턴이 뚜렷이 나타났다. 따라서 수자원 정책결정에 있어서 미래 토지피복변화에 따른 홍수 및 가뭄의 패턴에 적합한 수자원 정책이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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  2. Impact of IPCC RCP Scenarios on Streamflow and Sediment in the Hoeya River Basin vol.22, pp.3, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7319/kogsis.2014.22.3.011
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