• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causality test

Search Result 283, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

A Study on Causality between Trading Volume of Freight and Industrial Growth in Korea Ports (국내 주요항만별 항만물동량과 산업성장의 인과관계)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.159-175
    • /
    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between trading volume of freight and industrial growth in Korea ports, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model, Hsiao(1981) method and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the extent of causality between trading volume of freight and industrial growth is strong in order of Incheon port, Busan port, Gwang Yang port, Ulsan port. We can infer policy suggestions as follows; The port policy of government must be focused on re-adjusting investment among Korea ports and raising competitive power of Korea ports

  • PDF

Does the Agricultural Ecosystem Cause Environmental Pollution in Azerbaijan?

  • Elcin Nesirov;Mehman Karimov;Elay Zeynalli
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.55 no.6
    • /
    • pp.617-632
    • /
    • 2022
  • In recent years, environmental pollution and determining the main factors causing this pollution have become an important issue. This study investigates the relationship between the agricultural sector and environmental pollution in Azerbaijan for 1992-2018. The dependent variable in the study is the agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent). Eight variables were selected as explanatory variables: four agricultural inputs and four agricultural macro indicators. Unit root tests, ARDL boundary test, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR long-term estimators, Granger causality analysis, and variance decomposition analyses were used to investigate the effect of these variables on agricultural emissions. The results show that chemical fertilizer consumption, livestock number, and pesticide use positively and statistically significantly affect agricultural emissions from agricultural input variables. In contrast, agricultural energy consumption has a negative and significant effect. From agricultural macro indicator variables, it was found that the crop and animal production index had a positive and significant effect on agricultural emissions. According to the Granger causality test results, it was concluded that there are a causality relationship from chemical fertilizer consumption, livestock number, crop and livestock production index variables towards agricultural emissions. Considering all the results obtained, it is seen that the variables that have the most effect on the increase in agricultural emissions in Azerbaijan are the number of livestock, the consumption of chemical fertilizers, and the use of pesticides, respectively. The results from the research will contribute to the information on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and will play an enlightening role for policymakers and the general public.

A Study On Causal Relationship between Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Korea (한국의 환율과 경제성장과의 인과관계)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.329-347
    • /
    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model. The results indicate that uni-dierctional causality between exchange rate and economic growth is detected. Exchange rate impacts on economic growth, but economic growth don't impact on exchange rate. The analysis of impulse reaction function shows that the impulse of exchange rate impacts on Korean economic growth in negative direction. We can infer policy suggestion as follows: The fluctuation of exchange rate much affects economic growth, thus we must make a stable policy of exchange rate to continue economic growth.

  • PDF

Comprehensive Presuppositions Regarding Nature of Science, Scientific Causality, and Nature Held by In-service Secondary Science Teachers (중등 과학 교사들의 과학의 본성, 과학적 인과성 및 자연에 대한 종합적 관점 조사)

  • Hong, Hanghwa;Park, Jongwon
    • Journal of Science Education
    • /
    • v.38 no.2
    • /
    • pp.454-469
    • /
    • 2014
  • Teachers' presuppositions of nature of science, scientific causality, and nature are unconsciously constructed through interactions with his or her physical and social environment everyday and it began even before they were in any formal education. It directly influences their teaching later. Thus, this study examined what comprehensive presuppositions in nature of science, scientific causality, and nature are held by in-service secondary science teachers. For the study, Q-methodology was used. Q-sorting was done on 81 statements from three instruments: Nature statements, the Test of Preferred Explanations, and the Nature of Science Scale with twelve in-service science teachers. Teachers sorted the statements along a presented agreement scale of their viewpoint and the collected data was analyzed using recommended procedures for Q-sorts in order to group teachers with similar views. As a result, ten participants were placed in five factors based on their presuppositions of science, scientific causality, and nature and distinctive features of each factor were discovered. In addition, the study confirmed that presuppositions of science, scientific causality, and nature are interrelated. This study method will be helpful to discover more relationships regarding teachers' various viewpoints further.

  • PDF

Industrial Economic Growth and IT Investment: Is Economic Growth an Effect of IT Investment, or a Determinant of Decision-making for IT Investment (산업의 경제 성장과 IT 투자: 경제 성장은 IT 투자의 효과인가, 아니면 IT 투자 결정의 요인인가?)

  • Sangho Lee;Young U. Ryu
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.185-202
    • /
    • 2017
  • Most studies based on production function theory have concluded that economic growth is a result of information technology (IT) capital use. However, some studies have indicated that economic growth is a determinant of IT investment. To determine if these results also hold at the industry level, we use the Granger causality test to analyze bidirectional causality with industry-level data for 1977~2007 from the United States. The results generally reveal that IT investment causes economic growth in many industries under the concept of Granger causality, that economic growth causes IT investment in some industries, and that IT investment is not associated with economic growth in some industries. In the country-level time-series data made by summing up the IT capital and gross output for each industry, the results do not show any causality between IT investment and economic growth. However, they show bi-directional causality between IT investment and economic growth in the panel data. These results may be a source of IT productivity paradox.

An Empirical Study on the Causalities and Effects between International Trade and Economic Growth in China (중국의 국제무역과 경제성장간의 인과관계 및 파급효과)

  • Kim, Jong-Sup
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-79
    • /
    • 2009
  • This papers studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between international trade and economic growth in China for the period of 1950-2007, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, VAR model, and VECM. The results of this study are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root test, I found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Secondly, in the Granger Causality test, this papers shows that variable dlexp and dlinp influence on dlgdp and dlgdd, while bilateral causality relation between dlexp and dlgdp, dlexp and dlgdd for the whole period, for the whole period, pre-reform period and post-reform period. Thirdly, there is no cointegraion relation between lgdp(or dlgdp, lgdd, dlgdd) and lexp, linp for lgdd-limp in the whole period, and pre-reform period, while no cointegration relation for the post-reform period. Finally, in the impulse-response test, it was proved that lgdp represents (-) correlation with lexp for the whole period. Thorough the variance decomposition test, it was proved that linp(or dlinp) is the most affected variable of the each data and relation between linp(or dlinp) and lexp(or dlexp) has become bigger recently.

An Empirical Study of the Relations among Wage Differentials, Trade, and Productivity in Korea (임금격차, 무역 및 생산성간의 관계에 대한 실증분석)

  • Heo, Shik;Lee, Sung-Won
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.299-312
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study examines the relations among wage differentials, trade, and productivity in Korea, using the methodology of Granger causality and vector error correction modelling. Cointegration test results over the 1975-2004 period indicate that all the test variables are cointegrated. Therefore, wage differentials, trade, and productivity are all related in the long run. We found some evidence on long-run relationship, while there is no short-run relationship between three test variables. First, trade and wage differentials have positively and bi-directionally Granger causality in the long-run. Second, productivity Granger causes negatively wage differentials in the long-run. Finally, productivity Granger causes positively trade in the long-run. These results explain partially the current theoretical predictions for wage inequality as well as supports the productivity-led growth hypothesis in the Korean economy.

  • PDF

국내 연구개발투자와 경제성장간의 인과관계

  • 오세홍;임수진;손소영
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-82
    • /
    • 2002
  • This paper inquires into the causal relationship between R&D investment and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in Korea. We apply the method of unit-root test, co-integration test, and Hsiao version of the Granger causality test to find the evidence of bi-directional causality between R&D and GDP. However, it is interesting to observe no significant directional effect between government funded R&D and GDP while private sector funded R&D turns out to affect GDP significantly. Utilizing the previous study results on bi-directional relationship between government and private sector funded R&D, we draw the following conclusion: In order to increase GDP, government funded R&D needs to induce private sector to fund more R&D in an effective manner. In this way, government is expected to indirectly participate in the development for better economy in Korea.

  • PDF

Beyond Growth: Does Tourism Promote Human Development in India? Evidence from Time Series Analysis

  • SHARMA, Manu;MOHAPATRA, Geetilaxmi;GIRI, Arun Kumar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.12
    • /
    • pp.693-702
    • /
    • 2020
  • The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.

Korea's IT Trade with Major Partners (US, Japan, China) and its Impacts on Domestic Industry (우리나라 주요국(미국, 일본, 중국)과의 IT 무역과 국내 IT 산업으로의 파급효과)

  • Lee, Sang-Yong Tome;Han, Jae-Seung
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-59
    • /
    • 2011
  • Information Technology (IT) has been working as an engine of growth in Korea since early 1990's. For the next leap of Korean economy and to overcome worldwide financial crisis, Korea's IT industry needs to find a new breakthrough. In this viewpoint, we tried to empirically analyze the impact of Korea's IT trade on domestic industry. Since Korean government is trying to set up a few free trade agreements (FTA) with major trade partners, more accurate understanding of the impact of FTA is required to find the correct way to promote Korea's IT industry. We first looked at the current status of Korea's IT trade with major partners such as the US, Japan, and China to understand the competitiveness of Korea's IT industry. Having done this, we measured the impact of IT trade on domestic industry using Granger causality test. The results showed that the positive impact of trade is bigger on IT industry than on whole industry. Also, the impact of import turned out to be bigger than that of export. Among the major trade partner countries, the US’s and China's impacts are bigger than Japan's impact. Another notable thing is that IT product import from the US has especially big impact on domestic IT industry. Our findings may have certain implications to the FTA related policy.