• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Loop

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원전 종사자 및 조직 특성이 사고에 미치는 영향 (A Study on the Effects of Nuclear Power Plant Workers and Organizational Characteristics on Accidents)

  • 김병석;조현웅;오영민
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.5-25
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of nuclear power plant workers and organizational characteristics on accidents, and seek the combination of policies for reducing accidents. For this purpose, it grasped, by using System Dynamics and Causal Loop Diagram, how various factors that cause accidents in nuclear plants are interrelated, and performed simulations after building simulation models. As a result of the analysis, first, the fundamental cause of safety accidents in nuclear power plants turned out to be the time constraint on the workload. Second, it turned out that as the workload of workers increases, physical and mental stresses increase, thereby increasing accidents due to errors and violations. Third, it turned out that as the levels of educational training and compliance with regulations and procedures are enhanced, accidents are reduced. Lastly, it turned out that as the combination of policies (reliance level + working environment + educational training + compliance with regulations and procedures) is increased, accidents are reduced. Especially, it turned out that if the combination of policies is increased by 30%, more than 10 cases of accidents are reduced.

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시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 신두리 해안사구의 보전방안 (Conservation Method of Sindu-ri Coastal Dune using System Dynamics)

  • 석영선;유수진;송기환;전진형
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.5-23
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the land-use changes in the coastal areas using system dynamics modeling and to provide directions for effective management to maintain coastal dune areas. This research process consists of four steps: First, we built the basic model based on the causal loop diagram which was analyzed the land-use change of Sindu-ri Coastal Dune. Second, a time series land-use change map using Arc Map was established. Third, the validity of the basic model was tested. Finally, three simulations were performed for the cut over area($100,000m^2/y$, $150,000m^2/y$, $200,000m^2/y$) of windbreak for maintaining the coastal dune areas. Simulation of the basic model showed that the area of the coastal dune will be consistently decreased. Based on the simulation, if windbreak were cut down $150,000m^2/y$, windbreak area will be restored to the target area in 2019. This study has the limitation which the simulation is progressed with a limited variable: area. Therefore, the modeling of coastal dune should be reflected various variables in the further study.

정부 규제가 국내 온라인 게임 시장에 미치는 영향: 시스템 다이내믹스 접근 (The Impact of Government Regulations on Korean Online Game Market: A System Dynamics Approach)

  • 황인영;박정훈
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.129-153
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    • 2015
  • Mandatory shutdown policy of the juvenile protection act was enforced in December 2011 to prevent game addiction of the youth. However, the size of game market in Korea seems to be reduced significantly after implementation of the shutdown policy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of current government regulations on Korean online game market. Based on empirical evidences and results from the related literature, we developed several causal loop diagrams(CLD) and system dynamics models. The CLD include sub-diagrams of innovation processes, user commitments, and operational costs. We conducted simulation analyses under various policy scenarios, adopting Normalized Unit Modelling By Elementary Relationship(NUMBER). Our results show that first, the impact of time regulation on the number of users is greater than the impact of content regulation. Second, the quality of domestic online game appears more elastic to regulations than the quality of foreign online game. The results of this study suggest that the deregulation in Korean online game market can narrow the gap in market outcomes between domestic and foreign online games. Some recommendations for future study are suggested.

SNA와 SD 방법론을 활용한 충북 지역혁신사업의 네트워크 연결구조와 함의 (Network Connecting Structure and Contextual Meanings of Chungbuk Innovation Projects Based on the Amalgamation of Social Network Analysis and System Dynamics Approaches)

  • 이미라;홍성호;박주혜;이만형
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.103-120
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    • 2009
  • Using various data derived from the regional innovation projects in the IT and BT-sectors within Chungbuk Province, this study tries to observe formation processes of network connecting structure and their spill-over effects. Considering the dynamic nature of key issues, it applies both social network analysis and causal loop methods. After a series of simulation exercises, we find that so-called extroverted regional innovation projects, that is, ones financially supported by the central government, reveal a higher tendency in the centrality, heavily depending on a handful of well reputed organizations. It is quite similar to the reinforcing mechanism, resulting in the rich-get-richer and the poor-get-poorer. Compared with the existing documents, nonetheless, it shows relatively weak in the mechanism strength, implying the fact that regional innovation projects have significantly contributed to ameliorating the unequal distribution of innovation organizations within Chungbuk Province. On the other hand, this study concludes that all the brokerage organizations related to the regional innovation projects have settled in Chungbuk Province. Whereas the Capital Region-based organizations present a higher tendency in the knowledge-network, it seems that the regional innovation projects have significantly contributed to upgrading direct and indirect competitiveness of the local organizations.

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시스템사고를 통한 자본주의 진화과정의 동태성 분석 (An Analysis of the Dynamics of the Capitalism's Evolution with Systems Thinking)

  • 최남희
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.101-127
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to understand how and why each stage of capitalism grows and changes into the new direction in the moment of crisis, based on the systems thinking approach through the causal loop feedback structure. To achieve the research purpose, it classifies the evolution process of the capitalistic economic system into 4 types: Capitalism 1.0(Classical Laissez-Faire Capitalism), 2.0(Revised Capitalism), 3.0(Neo-liberalism), and 4.0(New Capitalism for the Future). This study focuses particularly on by which feedback structure the growth, crisis, and new transition of capitalism could be explained. The main research results are as follows. The intended positive feedback structure caused the growth at each early stage of capitalism. After that time, as a result of the uncontrolled growth, the negative feedback structure controlling its growth operated on the one hand, while the positive feedback structure amplifying the crisis did on the other hand. The study suggests the Resilient Capitalism as the new evolutional direction of Capitalism 4.0. It can contribute to strengthening its resilience by which all the economic players can recover promptly and flexibly from the crises such as the failure of competition and unemployment.

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변수 불확실성을 가지는 이산시간 특이시스템의 강인 안정화 및 강인 보장비용 제어 (Robust Stabilization and Guaranteed Cost Control for Discrete-time Singular Systems with Parameter Uncertainties)

  • 김종해
    • 전자공학회논문지SC
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문에서는 변수 불확실성을 가지는 이산시간 특이시스템의 강인 안정화 기법과 강인 보장비용 제어기법을 다룬다. 제안하는 제어기법은 제어기 존재조건에서 준정부호조건(semi-definite condition)이나 시스템 행렬의 분해 없이 볼록최적화(convex optimization)가 가능한 선형행렬부등식 접근방법을 이용하여 제안한다. 먼저, 강인 안정화 상태궤환 제어기는 폐루프 시스템의 정규성, 코잘 및 안정화를 만족하는 제어기의 존재조건과 설계방법을 선형행렬부등식으로 제시한다. 그리고 보장비용 함수의 상한치의 최소화를 보장하는 강인 보장비용 제어기 설계방법은 강인 안정화 제어기 설계를 기반으로 제안한다. 예제를 통하여 제안한 제어기 설계기법의 타당성을 확인한다

조직의 상충적 이슈에 관한 동태적 모델링 : 환경 시스템과 경제 시스템 간의 동태적 상호작용 분석과 시스템 시뮬레이션 (The Dynamic Modeling of Conflicting Issues in Public Organization : The System Simulation of Dynamic Interaction Between Environmental System and Regional Development System.)

  • 홍민기
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.159-183
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    • 2000
  • How to protect the environment without sacrificing the human environment and economy at the level of region is on of the most difficult issues of recent times. The dynamic Interactions between economic activities and environmental pollution control activities determine whether social welfare is increased of decreased by such activities and provides a basis for saying whether they help or hurt the economy. Bureaucratic Approach of Local government has failed, and an Impetus has arisen to develop new tools of analysis, useful for finding policy leverages focused on sustainability. This paper focus on understanding dynamic relationships between regional economic system and environmental system, and presenting possible framework for finding policy leverages in dynamic interaction behaviors. The case, selected in this study, is Nacdong river regions case, which is related many meaningful issues about sustainable development: two big metropolitan government and dwellers have different opinion with regard to construction of large scale Industrial pack, drinking water supply, and environment model consisting of three sectors: regional economy sector, river pollution and drinking water sector, environmental protection and investment policy sector Finally, this paper deal with how to link policy leverage to causal loop structure for the sustainable development of two regions.

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전기공사업 노동시장의 인력수급 불균형에 관한 연구: 기술·기능인력의 수급격차에 대한 시뮬레이션 (The Study on Imbalance for Labor Supply and Demand in Electrical Construction Business : Simulating the Supply and Demand Gap of Technical Engineer)

  • 박홍희
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.105-134
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    • 2013
  • Electrical construction business has public and professional characters. It may require appropriate interventions of the government because these business activities stand for not only profit-seeking competition, but also supplies of one of the key functions in our society. In other words, public benefit and private benefit are still in existence. The government therefore considers such an aspect of public importance of the business sector and needs to plan to adjust technical and engineering manpower of this market. This study focuses on the imbalance for labor supply and demand of technical engineer in electrical construction business. A system dynamics analysis is applied to understand and simulate the imbalance as a soft approach. It has the merit of causal loop diagram to alleviate the limitation of data lack problem. We find that excess demand is expected from 2010 to 2011, and excess supply is predicted from 2012 to 2021 about the manpower of technical engineer. It shows considerable disagreement between the supply and demand of human resource. So we suggest that it is strong necessity to construct statistics infrastructure for a manpower supply and demand plan.

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주민주도적 마을만들기의 동태적 측면에 관한 연구 (A Study of Dynamic Characteristics in the Process of Community Building Projects in Korea)

  • 전대욱;김혜인;김건위
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.51-74
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    • 2013
  • Recently, Community Rebuilding Projects (hereinafter CRPs) in Korea have been driven and motivated by community inhabitants by themselves, and highlighted as an alternative approach to overcome the limitation revealed normally in top-down projects of community vitalization by the Government. The CRPs encourage community-lead development because it happens to integrate multiple stakeholders and to help inhabitants to participate in the process of the CRPs by accumulating and enlarging social capital and network among inhabitants, and the social gain consequently raises the efficiency of public investment in revitalizing communities. In this study, the series of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) is to be elaborated and the System-Thinking (ST) approach is to be presented to understand the dynamic characteristics residing in the above development process of rebuilding communities. The ST approach refers to the CLDs analyzing 19 remarkable Korean CRP cases, and leads to a conclusion including some of policy instruments to support the bottom-up CRPs in Korea. This study contributes a theoretical framework to understand the dynamic relation between social capital and community revitalization as well as empirical suggestions to respond to the issues of the CRPs in Korean local governments.

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한우 가격 파동의 인과순환적 구조분석과 정책 시뮬레이션 (Causal Loop Analysis and Policy Simulation on the fluctuation of Korean Cattle Price)

  • 최남희
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.135-163
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.

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