• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.75-85
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• 2016

Coal can be divided into thermal coal and coking coal. The price of thermal coal is basically affected by demand and supply. However, many other factors with regard to economic condition such as exchange rate, economy growth rate also make an influence on the price. This study is targeted to develop a forecast model for thermal coal price by using System Dynamics Method. System dynamics provides results that better reflect the real world by employing an inter-dependent system of variables. This study found out that 8 factors have important influence on the thermal coal price. Most of the data of the variables were acquired from the Bloomberg Database. The period extends to 2 years and 4 months, from May of 2011 to August of 2013. The causal relations among the variables were acquired by regression analysis

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.179-187
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• 2003

This study investigate the reasons of organizational failure in detection and appropriate response to risk signal. The Crisis does not come true suddenly, there is some risk signals in crisis. If Organization detect the risk signals the crisis is come true opportunities, if not the crisis is come true disastrous outcome. This is use the system dynamics approach. System Dynamics assume the system as a collection of causal feedback loop, so we understand the dynamics around the problems. This investigate suggest that, the focus on growth is the a kind of promotional pressure and the pressure drive the organization to less attention the risk signal, so the risk is underestimate In proportion to real risk. Ultimate, the organization entrap the promotional climate and insensible to security. This study is a kind of hypothesis-discovering research, in the further study, the discovered hypothesis will be empirically tested.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.12a
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• pp.45-73
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• 1995

The current paper presents a system dynamics model which can generate the land use anq transportation system performance simultaneously is proposed. The model system consists of 7 submodels (population, migration of population, household, job growth-employment-land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level), and each of them is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socio-economic, and policy variables. The important advantages of the system dynamics model are as follows. First, the model can address the complex interactions between land use and transportation system performance dynamically. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for evaluating the time-by-time effect of a policy over time horizons. Secondly, the system dynamics model is not relied on the assumption of equilibrium state of urban systems as in conventional models since it determines the state of model components directly through dynamic system simulation. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is very flexible in reflecting new features, such as a policy, a new phenomenon which has not existed in the past, a special event, or a useful concept from other methodology, since it consists of a lots of separated equations. In Chapter I, II, and III, overall approach and structure of the model system are discussed with causal-loop diagrams and major equations. In Chapter V _, the performance of the developed model is applied to the analysis of the impact of highway capacity expansion on land use for the area of Montgomery County, MD. The year-by-year impacts of highway capacity expansion on congestion level and land use are analyzed with some possible scenarios for the highway capacity expansion. This is a first comprehensive attempt to use dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions. The model structure is not very elaborate mainly due to the problem of the availability of behavioral data, but the model performance results indicate that the proposed approach can be a promising one in dealing comprehensively with complicated urban land use/transportation system.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.502-512
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• 2019

To examine the problem structure of balanced regional development policy and identify the causes of the gap between the capital and non-capital areas, this study examined the causal structure in terms of the concentration and distribution of functions in the metropolitan area and non-capital area and explored the policy leverage. As a research method, the causal map was drawn using System Dynamics techniques and policy leverage was derived through an exploration of the feedback structure. In particular, the causes of the problems in balanced regional development policies were approached by system accidents rather than by single-circuit accidents, and causality analysis was performed among the variables constituting balanced regional development policies based on system accidents. In particular, it singled out 31 variables, developed 13 feedback loops, and confirmed four major policy leverages, including relocation of the capital function, local decentralization policies, consistent development, and investment practices centered on the Non­Capital Area. Subsequently, a follow-up study by computer simulation is needed by modeling the structure of the system to identify the ripple effect of the policies of the Capital Area on the Non­Capital Area.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.61-72
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• 2008

The purpose of the study is to research students' proficiency with systems-thinking approach concerning water cycles and to acquire data on Earth System-related concepts based on students' feedback. To achieve the purpose of the study, I chose 4 mid-level high school juniors living in Pohang, where the high school equalization policy has not been implemented, and the students answered a questionnaire about water cycles. Then, based on the results, I created a causal map and evaluated it using systems-thinking analysis. The results of the study are as follows: First of all, among the answers of the subjects, there were 21 concepts related to the conception of the earth system : 14 of the conceptions were linked scientifically, and 7 of the conceptions were not linked scientifically. Secondly, results of the causal map of what the subjects described showed that only two students'(A and C) feedback loops were completed, and that student C's feedback loop included unscientific reasoning. In conclusion, this study indicated that the students failed to understand the water cycle with the systems-thinking approach, or alternatively they applied low-level systems-thinking approach and had a lower understanding of it.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.83-114
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• 2007

The Korean defense industry was brought up in the government policy since 1970's. The important parts of defense industrial technologies have not been developed, and usually introduced from overseas. Moreover, the development of advanced technologies was not actively stimulated or pursued, consequently shaping the current structure of the defense industry which lacks global competitiveness due to the dearth of high technologies necessary for high-technology weapons. This research analyzes the systems of the Korean defense industry through a systems thinking approach in order to understand the whole mechanism and to find ways to improve the defense industry. Finding some leverages is the main purpose of systems thinking, that yields desirable results with a little effort. The three policy leverages are: (1) the policy for timely fielding; (2) the R&D investment for development and production of domestic high-technology weapons; and (3) the policy measures for exports. The research findings will contribute to the invigorating and developing the Korean defense industry by providing policy-makers and acquisition practitioners with systematic understanding and insight into the dynamics of the defense industry for them to make and execute efficient policies taking into account the Korean overall defense industry.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.21-40
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• 2013

Because of the recent development of information technology, especially the popularization of social media, false rumors and abusive comments on social media have increased, which has accelerated conflicts in online society. Since these conflicts lead to significant negative influences on online society, it is important to figure out how to cope with the conflicts and integrate the society. Thus, this study provides effective political implications that will advance the society where people can communicate based on trust in social media. In addition, we suggest new sociocultural change phenomenon and social integration by drawing the Causal Loop Diagram focusing on the dimension of social capital in social media environment.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.5-24
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• 2016

This study structurally analyzes major inefficiency of Korea's healthcare delivery system by utilizing the systems thinking. In particular, the phenomenon of patient's concentrated visits to large hospitals, waste of resource due to competitions between clinics and large hopitals, and the structure of oversupply were visualized using the causal loop diagram. The inefficient structure of healthcare delivery system can be understood more clearly by utilizing the major system archetypes of 'success to the successful', 'tragedy of commons', 'escalation' and 'limits to growth'. This study also finds solution from archetypal structure suggested by Wolstenholme. The inefficient status of healthcare delivery system might be explained by the 'out of control' archetype. In conclusion, the public resources such as the national health insurance need to be acknowledged as the entire achievement. All the participants should cooperate with each other in order to improve the inefficiency of the healthcare delivery system. In addition, the arrangement of incentive system for cooperation, acceleration of health information technology, and development of innovative business models make the sustainable healthcare delivery system.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.77-105
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• 2016

Whenever Information leak case had been happened, even though IT Infra systems were reinforced, those cases of kind were not decreased. It meant that the causes are not only the fault of IT, but also other things. So that the information leak cases should have been studied by the interdisciplinary way. There was a point of view for the Business Ethics which needed to be studied in the interdisciplinary way. Financial Information Leak Case of three representative Card Companies in Korea which is happened in 2014 was a case which was composed by many problems. These were bad circumstances, half-educated, lower salary, and the most of all, the C-Levels' ignorance of the law. By studying the CLD: Causal Loop Diagram of Business Ethics and those mentioned factors, few meanings were discovered. Firstly, this case was not a accident, but a predeterminate issue at all, because of the structural unethical corruption. Secondly, main reason of this case was not only criminals who leaked information, but also managers, especially CEO who didn't obey the law, forced that to employees. Thirdly, although those companies had moral guide and did CSR activities, it was not help to protect this information leak case. This study shows that the important thing was not the action for showing, but effective action to management for sustainability.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.5-32
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• 2015

Last year, a disastrous accident happened on the sea. Car ferry Se-wol which was on its way from In-cheon to Je-ju sank in the middle of the western sea. 304 passengers were drowned at the sea in the accident. There were no passengers who were waiting on board ship rescued in the accident. This study is to review the pattern of decision making in the middle of saving a life, right after Se-wol was about to sink. The starting point of this study is decision making on the rescue by rescue corps with no expert knowledge at the initial stage. When it comes to saving victims, there was no expert on rescue on the sea. Failure in rescue at Se-wol disaster lets us find a vicious circle of positive feedback loop. Experts with no experience act like well-qualified persons. Unqualified persons(leaders) have no expertise. Those who pretend to be expert occupy the important post in the hierarchy. It means we could not accumulate expertise of know-how in rescue division. That's why a vicious circle of positive feedback is formed in areas of disasters. It is necessary to train experts in Government Organizations to weaken the vicious circle of positive feedback.