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An Intelligence Support System Research on KTX Rolling Stock Failure Using Case-based Reasoning and Text Mining (사례기반추론과 텍스트마이닝 기법을 활용한 KTX 차량고장 지능형 조치지원시스템 연구)

  • Lee, Hyung Il;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-73
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    • 2020
  • KTX rolling stocks are a system consisting of several machines, electrical devices, and components. The maintenance of the rolling stocks requires considerable expertise and experience of maintenance workers. In the event of a rolling stock failure, the knowledge and experience of the maintainer will result in a difference in the quality of the time and work to solve the problem. So, the resulting availability of the vehicle will vary. Although problem solving is generally based on fault manuals, experienced and skilled professionals can quickly diagnose and take actions by applying personal know-how. Since this knowledge exists in a tacit form, it is difficult to pass it on completely to a successor, and there have been studies that have developed a case-based rolling stock expert system to turn it into a data-driven one. Nonetheless, research on the most commonly used KTX rolling stock on the main-line or the development of a system that extracts text meanings and searches for similar cases is still lacking. Therefore, this study proposes an intelligence supporting system that provides an action guide for emerging failures by using the know-how of these rolling stocks maintenance experts as an example of problem solving. For this purpose, the case base was constructed by collecting the rolling stocks failure data generated from 2015 to 2017, and the integrated dictionary was constructed separately through the case base to include the essential terminology and failure codes in consideration of the specialty of the railway rolling stock sector. Based on a deployed case base, a new failure was retrieved from past cases and the top three most similar failure cases were extracted to propose the actual actions of these cases as a diagnostic guide. In this study, various dimensionality reduction measures were applied to calculate similarity by taking into account the meaningful relationship of failure details in order to compensate for the limitations of the method of searching cases by keyword matching in rolling stock failure expert system studies using case-based reasoning in the precedent case-based expert system studies, and their usefulness was verified through experiments. Among the various dimensionality reduction techniques, similar cases were retrieved by applying three algorithms: Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF), Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA), and Doc2Vec to extract the characteristics of the failure and measure the cosine distance between the vectors. The precision, recall, and F-measure methods were used to assess the performance of the proposed actions. To compare the performance of dimensionality reduction techniques, the analysis of variance confirmed that the performance differences of the five algorithms were statistically significant, with a comparison between the algorithm that randomly extracts failure cases with identical failure codes and the algorithm that applies cosine similarity directly based on words. In addition, optimal techniques were derived for practical application by verifying differences in performance depending on the number of dimensions for dimensionality reduction. The analysis showed that the performance of the cosine similarity was higher than that of the dimension using Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF) and Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA) and the performance of algorithm using Doc2Vec was the highest. Furthermore, in terms of dimensionality reduction techniques, the larger the number of dimensions at the appropriate level, the better the performance was found. Through this study, we confirmed the usefulness of effective methods of extracting characteristics of data and converting unstructured data when applying case-based reasoning based on which most of the attributes are texted in the special field of KTX rolling stock. Text mining is a trend where studies are being conducted for use in many areas, but studies using such text data are still lacking in an environment where there are a number of specialized terms and limited access to data, such as the one we want to use in this study. In this regard, it is significant that the study first presented an intelligent diagnostic system that suggested action by searching for a case by applying text mining techniques to extract the characteristics of the failure to complement keyword-based case searches. It is expected that this will provide implications as basic study for developing diagnostic systems that can be used immediately on the site.

If This Brand Were a Person, or Anthropomorphism of Brands Through Packaging Stories (가설품패시인(假设品牌是人), 혹통과고사포장장품패의인화(或通过故事包装将品牌拟人化))

  • Kniazeva, Maria;Belk, Russell W.
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2010
  • The anthropomorphism of brands, defined as seeing human beings in brands (Puzakova, Kwak, and Rosereto, 2008) is the focus of this study. Specifically, the research objective is to understand the ways in which brands are rendered humanlike. By analyzing consumer readings of stories found on food product packages we intend to show how marketers and consumers humanize a spectrum of brands and create meanings. Our research question considers the possibility that a single brand may host multiple or single meanings, associations, and personalities for different consumers. We start by highlighting the theoretical and practical significance of our research, explain why we turn our attention to packages as vehicles of brand meaning transfer, then describe our qualitative methodology, discuss findings, and conclude with a discussion of managerial implications and directions for future studies. The study was designed to directly expose consumers to potential vehicles of brand meaning transfer and then engage these consumers in free verbal reflections on their perceived meanings. Specifically, we asked participants to read non-nutritional stories on selected branded food packages, in order to elicit data about received meanings. Packaging has yet to receive due attention in consumer research (Hine, 1995). Until now, attention has focused solely on its utilitarian function and has generated a body of research that has explored the impact of nutritional information and claims on consumer perceptions of products (e.g., Loureiro, McCluskey and Mittelhammer, 2002; Mazis and Raymond, 1997; Nayga, Lipinski and Savur, 1998; Wansik, 2003). An exception is a recent study that turns its attention to non-nutritional packaging narratives and treats them as cultural productions and vehicles for mythologizing the brand (Kniazeva and Belk, 2007). The next step in this stream of research is to explore how such mythologizing activity affects brand personality perception and how these perceptions relate to consumers. These are the questions that our study aimed to address. We used in-depth interviews to help overcome the limitations of quantitative studies. Our convenience sample was formed with the objective of providing demographic and psychographic diversity in order to elicit variations in consumer reflections to food packaging stories. Our informants represent middle-class residents of the US and do not exhibit extreme alternative lifestyles described by Thompson as "cultural creatives" (2004). Nine people were individually interviewed on their food consumption preferences and behavior. Participants were asked to have a look at the twelve displayed food product packages and read all the textual information on the package, after which we continued with questions that focused on the consumer interpretations of the reading material (Scott and Batra, 2003). On average, each participant reflected on 4-5 packages. Our in-depth interviews lasted one to one and a half hours each. The interviews were tape recorded and transcribed, providing 140 pages of text. The products came from local grocery stores on the West Coast of the US and represented a basic range of food product categories, including snacks, canned foods, cereals, baby foods, and tea. The data were analyzed using procedures for developing grounded theory delineated by Strauss and Corbin (1998). As a result, our study does not support the notion of one brand/one personality as assumed by prior work. Thus, we reveal multiple brand personalities peacefully cohabiting in the same brand as seen by different consumers, despite marketer attempts to create more singular brand personalities. We extend Fournier's (1998) proposition, that one's life projects shape the intensity and nature of brand relationships. We find that these life projects also affect perceived brand personifications and meanings. While Fournier provides a conceptual framework that links together consumers’ life themes (Mick and Buhl, 1992) and relational roles assigned to anthropomorphized brands, we find that consumer life projects mold both the ways in which brands are rendered humanlike and the ways in which brands connect to consumers' existential concerns. We find two modes through which brands are anthropomorphized by our participants. First, brand personalities are created by seeing them through perceived demographic, psychographic, and social characteristics that are to some degree shared by consumers. Second, brands in our study further relate to consumers' existential concerns by either being blended with consumer personalities in order to connect to them (the brand as a friend, a family member, a next door neighbor) or by distancing themselves from the brand personalities and estranging them (the brand as a used car salesman, a "bunch of executives.") By focusing on food product packages, we illuminate a very specific, widely-used, but little-researched vehicle of marketing communication: brand storytelling. Recent work that has approached packages as mythmakers, finds it increasingly challenging for marketers to produce textual stories that link the personalities of products to the personalities of those consuming them, and suggests that "a multiplicity of building material for creating desired consumer myths is what a postmodern consumer arguably needs" (Kniazeva and Belk, 2007). Used as vehicles for storytelling, food packages can exploit both rational and emotional approaches, offering consumers either a "lecture" or "drama" (Randazzo, 2006), myths (Kniazeva and Belk, 2007; Holt, 2004; Thompson, 2004), or meanings (McCracken, 2005) as necessary building blocks for anthropomorphizing their brands. The craft of giving birth to brand personalities is in the hands of writers/marketers and in the minds of readers/consumers who individually and sometimes idiosyncratically put a meaningful human face on a brand.

A Study on the RFID's Application Environment and Application Measure for Security (RFID의 보안업무 적용환경과 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Tae-Hwang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.21
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2009
  • RFID that provide automatic identification by reading a tag attached to material through radio frequency without direct touch has some specification, such as rapid identification, long distance identification and penetration, so it is being used for distribution, transportation and safety by using the frequency of 125KHz, 134KHz, 13.56MHz, 433.92MHz, 900MHz, and 2.45GHz. Also it is one of main part of Ubiquitous that means connecting to net-work any time and any place they want. RFID is expected to be new growth industry worldwide, so Korean government think it as prospective field and promote research project and exhibition business program to linked with industry effectively. RFID could be used for access control of person and vehicle according to section and for personal certify with password. RFID can provide more confident security than magnetic card, so it could be used to prevent forgery of register card, passport and the others. Active RFID could be used for protecting operation service using it's long distance date transmission by application with positioning system. And RFID's identification and tracking function can provide effective visitor management through visitor's register, personal identification, position check and can control visitor's movement in the secure area without their approval. Also RFID can make possible of the efficient management and prevention of loss of carrying equipments and others. RFID could be applied to copying machine to manager and control it's user, copying quantity and It could provide some function such as observation of copy content, access control of user. RFID tag adhered to small storage device prevent carrying out of item using the position tracking function and control carrying-in and carrying-out of material efficiently. magnetic card and smart card have been doing good job in identification and control of person, but RFID can do above functions. RFID is very useful device but we should consider the prevention of privacy during its application.

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토양 및 지하수 Investigation 과 Remediation에 대한 현장적용

  • Wallner, Heinz
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.44-63
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    • 2000
  • Situated close to Heathrow Airport, and adjacent to the M4 and M25 Motorways, the site at Axis Park is considered a prime location for business in the UK. In consequnce two of the UK's major property development companies, MEPC and Redrew Homes sought the expertise of Intergeo to remediate the contaminated former industrial site prior to its development. Industrial use of the twenty-six hectare site, started in 1936, when Hawker Aircraft commence aircraft manufacture. In 1963 the Firestone Tyre and Rubber Company purchased part of the site. Ford commenced vehicle production at the site in the mid-1970's and production was continued by Iveco Ford from 1986 to the plant's decommissioning in 1997. Geologically the site is underlain by sand and gravel, deposited in prehistory by the River Thames, with London Clay at around 6m depth. The level of groundwater fluctuates seasonally at around 2.5m depth, moving slowly southwest towards local streams and watercourses. A phased investigation of the site was undertaken, which culminated in the extensive site investigation undertaken by Intergeo in 1998. In total 50 boreholes, 90 probeholes and 60 trial pits were used to investigate the site and around 4000 solid and 1300 liquid samples were tested in the laboratory for chemical substances. The investigations identified total petroleum hydrocarbons in the soil up to 25, 000mg/kg. Diesel oil, with some lubricating oil were the main components. Volatile organic compounds were identified in the groundwater in excess of 10mg/l. Specific substances included trichloromethane, trichloromethane and tetrachloroethene. Both the oil and volatile compounds were widely spread across the site, The specific substances identified could be traced back to industrial processes used at one or other dates in the sites history Slightly elevated levels of toxic metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were also identified locally. Prior to remediation of the site and throughout its progress, extensive liaison with the regulatory authorities and the client's professional representatives was required. In addition to meetings, numerous technical documents detailing methods and health and safety issues were required in order to comply with UK environmental and safety legislation. After initially considering a range of options to undertake remediation, the following three main techniques were selected: ex-situ bioremediation of hydrocarbon contaminated soils, skimming of free floating hydrocarbon product from the water surface at wells and excavations and air stripping of volatile organic compounds from groundwater recovered from wells. The achievements were as follows: 1) 350, 000m3 of soil was excavated and 112, 000m3 of sand and gravel was processed to remove gravel and cobble sized particles; 2) 53, 000m3 of hydrocarbon contaminated soil was bioremediated in windrows ; 3) 7000m3 of groundwater was processed by skimming to remove free floating Product; 4) 196, 000m3 of groundwater was Processed by air stripping to remove volatile organic compounds. Only 1000m3 of soil left the site for disposal in licensed waste facilities Given the costs of disposal in the UK, the selected methods represented a considerable cost saving to the Clients. All other soil was engineered back into the ground to a precise geotechnical specification. The following objective levels were achieved across the site 1) By a Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) methodology it was demonstrated that soil with less that 1000mg/kg total petroleum hydrocarbons did not pose a hazard to health or water resources and therefore, could remain insitu; 2) Soils destined for the residential areas of the site were remediated to 250mg/kg total petroleum hydrocarbons; in the industrial areas 500mg/kg was proven acceptable. 3) Hydrocarbons in groundwater were remediated to below the Dutch Intervegtion Level of 0.6mg/1; 4) Volatile organic compounds/BTEX group substances were reduced to below the Dutch Intervention Levels; 5) Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and metals were below Inter-departmental Committee for the Redevelopment of Contaminated Land guideline levels for intended enduse. In order to verify the qualify of the work 1500 chemical test results were submitted for the purpose of validation. Quality assurance checks were undertaken by independent consultants and at an independent laboratory selected by Intergeo. Long term monitoring of water quality was undertaken for a period of one year after remediation work had been completed. Both the regulatory authorities and Clients representatives endorsed the quality of remediation now completed at the site. Subsequent to completion of the remediation work Redrew Homes constructed a prestige housing development. The properties at "Belvedere Place" retailed at premium prices. On the MEPC site the Post Office, amongst others, has located a major sorting office for the London area. Exceptionally high standards of remediation, control and documentation were a requirement for the work undertaken here.aken here.

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A Legal Study on the Certificate System for Light Sports Aircraft Repairman (경량항공기 정비사 자격증명제도에 관한 법적 고찰)

  • Kim, Woong-Yi;Shin, Dai-Won;Lee, Gi-Myung
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.175-204
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the aviation leisure business has been legislated, and related industries have become active base with increasing the light sports aircraft within the legislation system. However, in the light sports aircraft safety problem, it is often mentioned that the flight is in violation of the regulations, the lack of safety consciousness of the operator and lack of ability, and the personal operators have a risk of accident of light aircraft such as insufficient safety management and poor maintenance. At present, the maintenance of light sports aircraft is carried out by the A & P mechanic in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, but it is difficult to say that it is equipped with qualification and expertise. It is not a legal issue to undertake light sports aircraft maintenance work on the regulation system. However, the problem of reliability and appropriateness is constantly being raised because airplanes, light sports aircraft, and ultra-light vehicle are classified and serviced in a legal method. Although legal and institutional frameworks for light sports aircraft are separated, much of it is stipulated in the aviation law provisions. Light sports aircraft maintenance work also follows the current aircraft maintenance system. In the United States, Europe, and Australia where General Aviation developed, legal and institutional devices related to maintenance of light aircraft were introduced, and specialized maintenance tasks are covered in the light aircraft mechanics system. As a result of analysis of domestic and foreign laws and regulations, it is necessary to introduce the qualification system for maintenance of light aircraft. In advanced aviation countries such as the United States, Europe, and Australia, a light sports aircraft repairman system is installed to perform safety management. This is to cope with changes in the operating environment of the new light sports aircraft. This study does not suggest the need for a light aircraft repairman system. From the viewpoint of the legal system, the examination of the relevant laws and regulations revealed that the supplementary part of the system is necessary. It is also require that the necessity of introduction is raised in comparison with overseas cases. Based on these results, it is necessary to introduce the system into the light aircraft repairman system, and suggestions for how to improve it are suggested.

Development of Intelligent ATP System Using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리듬을 적용한 지능형 ATP 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Tai-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2010
  • The framework for making a coordinated decision for large-scale facilities has become an important issue in supply chain(SC) management research. The competitive business environment requires companies to continuously search for the ways to achieve high efficiency and lower operational costs. In the areas of production/distribution planning, many researchers and practitioners have developedand evaluated the deterministic models to coordinate important and interrelated logistic decisions such as capacity management, inventory allocation, and vehicle routing. They initially have investigated the various process of SC separately and later become more interested in such problems encompassing the whole SC system. The accurate quotation of ATP(Available-To-Promise) plays a very important role in enhancing customer satisfaction and fill rate maximization. The complexity for intelligent manufacturing system, which includes all the linkages among procurement, production, and distribution, makes the accurate quotation of ATP be a quite difficult job. In addition to, many researchers assumed ATP model with integer time. However, in industry practices, integer times are very rare and the model developed using integer times is therefore approximating the real system. Various alternative models for an ATP system with time lags have been developed and evaluated. In most cases, these models have assumed that the time lags are integer multiples of a unit time grid. However, integer time lags are very rare in practices, and therefore models developed using integer time lags only approximate real systems. The differences occurring by this approximation frequently result in significant accuracy degradations. To introduce the ATP model with time lags, we first introduce the dynamic production function. Hackman and Leachman's dynamic production function in initiated research directly related to the topic of this paper. They propose a modeling framework for a system with non-integer time lags and show how to apply the framework to a variety of systems including continues time series, manufacturing resource planning and critical path method. Their formulation requires no additional variables or constraints and is capable of representing real world systems more accurately. Previously, to cope with non-integer time lags, they usually model a concerned system either by rounding lags to the nearest integers or by subdividing the time grid to make the lags become integer multiples of the grid. But each approach has a critical weakness: the first approach underestimates, potentially leading to infeasibilities or overestimates lead times, potentially resulting in excessive work-inprocesses. The second approach drastically inflates the problem size. We consider an optimized ATP system with non-integer time lag in supply chain management. We focus on a worldwide headquarter, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities are globally networked. We develop a mixed integer programming(MIP) model for ATP process, which has the definition of required data flow. The illustrative ATP module shows the proposed system is largely affected inSCM. The system we are concerned is composed of a multiple production facility with multiple products, multiple distribution centers and multiple customers. For the system, we consider an ATP scheduling and capacity allocationproblem. In this study, we proposed the model for the ATP system in SCM using the dynamic production function considering the non-integer time lags. The model is developed under the framework suitable for the non-integer lags and, therefore, is more accurate than the models we usually encounter. We developed intelligent ATP System for this model using genetic algorithm. We focus on a capacitated production planning and capacity allocation problem, develop a mixed integer programming model, and propose an efficient heuristic procedure using an evolutionary system to solve it efficiently. This method makes it possible for the population to reach the approximate solution easily. Moreover, we designed and utilized a representation scheme that allows the proposed models to represent real variables. The proposed regeneration procedures, which evaluate each infeasible chromosome, makes the solutions converge to the optimum quickly.

Development of Evaluation Indicators of the Records Management Condition of Public Organizations (공공기관의 기록관리현황 평가지표 개발)

  • Jeon, Soo-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.18
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    • pp.3-36
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    • 2008
  • Despite the institutional, organizational, and technological advances in the level of national records management that has occurred during the past several years, there has been no significant change in the condition of records management within individual public institutions, which may be an outset for records management. In order to begin the advance in national records management with overall innovation in records management by public institutions, it is necessary to distinctly set up the direction of innovation and a project to carry out. Also, a person in charge of records management, who is supposed to lead records management in each institution, should share the directions and projects. Against this backdrop, this study aims to define "the evaluation of records management" as a vehicle to establish a common goal for the innovation of records management and the role of a person in charge of records management as well as to develop evaluation indicators that might be applicable to all public institutions. With this aim, the study drew requirements of records management from domestic and overseas cases in the evaluation of records management conditions as well as the laws and standards of records management, and a roadmap for national records management innovation. Then, the study developed evaluation indicators by classifying the requirements according to three areas involving an organizational environment, records management job, and records management in the offices that create and file their own documents. The organizational environment area is concerned with the evaluation of the records management policy and the responsibility of an institution, and the evaluation of human resources and physical environment. The records management business area includes the measurement of the level of jobs, such as the records creation control conducted by the records management authority of each institution, the management of records schedules, the accession, preservation, and appraisal of records and their service, and the monitoring of records management. The area of records management in the offices is composed of the creation, registration, arrangement, and transfer of records as they are intended to be used during the monitoring of records management conditions. The study made it possible to measure all evaluation indicators with a quantitative evaluation method by clearly proposing the standard for objective and accurate evaluation.

Study on Basic Elements for Smart Content through the Market Status-quo (스마트콘텐츠 현황분석을 통한 기본요소 추출)

  • Kim, Gyoung Sun;Park, Joo Young;Kim, Yi Yeon
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.21
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2015
  • Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is one of the technologies which represent the core value of the creative economy. It has served as a vehicle connecting the existing industry and corporate infrastructure, developing existing products and services and creating new products and services. In addition to the ICT, new devices including big data, mobile gadgets and wearable products are gaining a great attention sending an expectation for a new market-pioneering. Further, Internet of Things (IoT) is helping solidify the ICT-based social development connecting human-to-human, human-to-things and things-to-things. This means that the manufacturing-based hardware development needs to be achieved simultaneously with software development through convergence. The essential element the convergence between hardware and software is OS, for which world's leading companies such as Google and Apple have launched an intense development recognizing the importance of software. Against this backdrop, the status-quo of the software market has been examined for the study of the present report (Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology: Professional Design Technology Development Project). As a result, the software platform-based Google's android and Apple's iOS are dominant in the global market and late comers are trying to enter the market through various pathways by releasing web-based OS and similar OS to provide a new paradigm to the market. The present study is aimed at finding the way to utilize a smart content by which anyone can be a developer based on OS responding to such as social change, newly defining a smart content to be universally utilized and analyzing the market to deal with a rapid market change. The study method, scope and details are as follows: Literature investigation, Analysis on the app market according to a smart classification system, Trend analysis on the current content market, Identification of five common trends through comparison among the universal definition of smart content, the status-quo of application represented in the app market and content market situation. In conclusion, the smart content market is independent but is expected to develop in the form of a single organic body being connected each other. Therefore, the further classification system and development focus should be made in a way to see the area from multiple perspectives including a social point of view in terms of the existing technology, culture, business and consumers.

A Case Study on the Design of Pickup Truck Tuning Equipment according to the Lifestyle of Modern People (현대인의 라이프스타일에 따른 픽업트럭 튜닝 용품 디자인 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Hun;Park, Hae-Lim;Lee, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2023
  • Changes in consumer needs and behaviors according to lifestyle changes lead to consumption culture, affecting the automobile market. However, research and research to provide options tailored to the lifestyle of consumers in related markets are still insufficient. Focusing on pickup truck accessories applied to pickup trucks that reflect lifestyle the most among vehicle types, this study first examined the theoretical background of the aftermarket market and lifestyle of pickup trucks. Second, through image mapping, the market possibilities and opportunity factors of pickup trucks were discovered through market size analysis and possibilities, and through this, user types could be classified. Third, interviews were conducted with those representing user types, the contents were organized, and interviews were conducted centering on related groups to create a persona of a user group, and what needs each group's persona wanted. Finally, a design concept suitable for the issue keywords and insights derived for each user lifestyle type was presented. In this study, the user type was divided into ① outdoor activity type, ② hobby activity type, and ③ small-scale work type, and a design case study was conducted by applying the concept suitable for the keyword for each group. For the outdoor activity type, a variable storage structure and a living space-type accessory design were presented, and for the hobby type, a modular decktop design and a sports coupe-type hardtop design were presented. For the small business type, a partition that is easy to fix the load and a stepper design that is easy to board the cargo box were presented. It is expected that the size of the pickup truck aftermarket will be expanded by diversifying the option designs that users want by lifestyle by applying them to the development of pickup truck accessories that fit the lifestyle of pickup truck users in the automobile market, which is currently mass customized.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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