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An empirical study on a firm's fail prediction model by considering whether there are embezzlement, malpractice and the largest shareholder changes or not (횡령.배임 및 최대주주변경을 고려한 부실기업예측모형 연구)

  • Moon, Jong Geon;Hwang Bo, Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.119-132
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed the failure prediction model of the firms listed on the KOSDAQ by considering whether there are embezzlement, malpractice and the largest shareholder changes or not. This study composed a total of 166 firms by using two-paired sampling method. For sample of failed firm, 83 manufacturing firms which delisted on KOSDAQ market for 4 years from 2009 to 2012 are selected. For sample of normal firm, 83 firms (with same item or same business as failed firm) that are listed on KOSDAQ market and perform normal business activities during the same period (from 2009 to 2012) are selected. This study selected 80 financial ratios for 5 years immediately preceding from delisting of sample firm above and conducted T-test to derive 19 of them which emerged for five consecutive years among significant variables and used forward selection to estimate logistic regression model. While the precedent studies only analyzed the data of three years immediately preceding the delisting, this study analyzes data of five years immediately preceding the delisting. This study is distinct from existing previous studies that it researches which significant financial characteristic influences the insolvency from the initial phase of insolvent firm with time lag and it also empirically analyzes the usefulness of data by building a firm's fail prediction model which considered embezzlement/malpractice and the largest shareholder changes as dummy variable(non-financial characteristics). The accuracy of classification of the prediction model with dummy variable appeared 95.2% in year T-1, 88.0% in year T-2, 81.3% in year T-3, 79.5% in year T-4, and 74.7% in year T-5. It increased as year of delisting approaches and showed generally higher the accuracy of classification than the results of existing previous studies. This study expects to reduce the damage of not only the firm but also investors, financial institutions and other stakeholders by finding the firm with high potential to fail in advance.

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A Study on the Safety of Evacuation according to Evacuation Delay Time and Fire Door Openness: Based on Residence Types (피난 지연시간의 적용과 방화문 개방 정도에 따른 피난 안전성 확보에 관한 고찰 : 주거형태를 중심으로)

  • Seo, Dong-Gil;Kim, Mi-Seon;Gu, Seon-Hwan;Song, Young-Joo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.156-165
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, the application of evacuation delay time (Cognition time + initiation time) and examine the degree of opening of fire doors in households for evaluating evacuation safety and suggest a realistic alternative. In order to proceed with this study, first of all, the preliminary investigation on evacuation safety evacuation of residential-type buildings (Apartment, urban living houses, etc.) among the performance-oriented design targets of Gwangju Metropolitan City, which was implemented until June 2018. Then, for the two representative types that are commonly used among the previously surveyed buildings, evacuation delay time is applied to W1, W2, and respectively simulating the opening of the doors is applied to th full open, 1/4 open, the leakage gap and evacuation safety evaluation was performed. As a result of evaluating evacuation safety was found that it is difficult to secure evacuation safety regardless of evacuation delay time W1 and W2 when the fire door is fully open and 1/4 open, Only when the leakage gap is applied evacuation safety was ensured even if evacuation delay time W2 was applied. Therefore, when a residential building is subject to performance-oriented design, evaluating the application of W2 rather than W1 is considered for evacuation delay time to reflect concern about privacy infringement due to CCTV installation, etc. In order to secure the Smoke blocking performance of the fire door and to improve the performance-oriented design, I would like to propose to consider the method of applying a leak gap to the degree of opening of the fire door. Through this, it is expected that the performance-oriented design will be a step further by performing evacuation safety evaluation with more realistic data.

Definition and Division in Intelligent Service Facility for Integrating Management (지능화시설의 통합운영관리를 위한 정의 및 구분에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Jeong-Woo;YIM, Du-Hyun;NAM, Kwang-Woo;KIM, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2016
  • Smart City is urban development for complex problem solving that provides convenience and safety for citizens, and it is a blueprint for future cities. In 2008, the Korean government defined the construction, management, and government support of U-Cities in the legislation, Act on the Construction, Etc. of Ubiquitous Cities (Ubiquitous City Act), which included definitions of terms used in the act. In addition, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has established a "ubiquitous city master plan" considering this legislation. The concept of U-Cities is complex, due to the mix of informatization and urban planning. Because of this complexity, the foundation of relevant regulations is inadequate, which is impeding the establishment and implementation of practical plans. Smart City intelligent service facilities are not easy to define and classify, because technology is rapidly changing and includes various devices for gathering and expressing information. The purpose of this study is to complement the legal definition of the intelligent service facility, which is necessary for integrated management and operation. The related laws and regulations on U-City were analyzed using text-mining techniques to identify insufficient legal definitions of intelligent service facilities. Using data gathered from interviews with officials responsible for constructing U-Cities, this study identified problems generated by implementing intelligent service facilities at the field level. This strategy should contribute to improved efficiency management, the foundation for building integrated utilization between departments. Efficiencies include providing a clear concept for establishing five-year renewable plans for U-Cities.

Green Spaces in the Urban Peripheries of Metropole Regions for Sustainable Development - Focused on Berlin, Milano and Seoul - (지속가능한 발전을 위한 대도시 외연부 녹지 활용 사례연구 - 베를린, 밀라노, 서울을 대상으로 -)

  • Hoh, Yun Kyeong;Chae, Jin-Hae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.72-85
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    • 2018
  • This study focused on cases that led sustainable urban development through the construction and utilization of organic greenery systems linking green spaces of urban peripheries with metropolitan areas. To that end, Berlin - Brandenburg's regional parks in Germany and Milan's Raggi Verdi, a radial green axis project, in Italy were selected for analysis as case studies. As frameworks for this analysis, this study has established existing infrastructure accessibility and linkage, recycling and cooperative management. The results of the case study analysis are as follows: First, the specialized spatial strategy based on the individuality of the green space outside the city rather than a uniform landscape was used as the foundation of the sustainable development plan. Second, physical linkage from the center of the city to the periphery contributed to the sustainable development of the overall metropolis by improving the economic value of the surrounding area as well as ecological and environmental values. Third, the central management system was established to reduce the administrative inconvenience caused by multiple administrative districts in the green space of urban periphery. The implications of applying the above results to Seoul, Korea are as follows. First, it is necessary to establish a differentiation strategy by re-establishing the identity of a green landscape in the urban periphery, because the green spaces of Seoul's periphery are dispersed and mostly have a repetitious mountain landscape. Also, it is necessary to actively link peripheral mountains and urban green areas to create ecological value and economic value, and ultimately to help the sustainable development of the city. Finally, building an integrated management system is required to solve fragmented green space management departments in most of the urban periphery's green spaces. In conclusion, this study shows the significant possibility that the sustainable development of a metropolis can be derived from the utilization, linkage, and management of the green space in the urban peripheries, which is extraordinary compared to normal centralized urban development.

The Method of Selecting Landscape Control Points for Landscape Impact Review of Development Projects (개발사업의 경관영향 검토를 위한 주요 조망점 선정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Ji-Hoon;Shin, Min-Ji;Choi, Won-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2018
  • The Natural Landscape Rating System was introduced in the amendment of the NATURAL ENVIRONMENT CONSERVATION ACT in 2006. For landscape preservation, the system aims to consider the effects of development projects or plans implemented in a natural landscape on skylines, scenic resources, and view corridors. Currently, a lack of consistency in standards for determining Landscape Control Points (LCP) to assess landscape impact lowers the accuracy and reliability of the assessment results. As the perception of and the impact on a landscape varies, depending on the location of the LCP, it is necessary to establish a reasonable set of criteria to select viewpoints and avoid unreliability in the assessment due to unclear criteria. The intent of this study is to propose an objective and reasonable set of criteria for LCP selection to effectively measure the impact on the landscape from development projects that anticipate a change in the landscape and, ultimately, to suggest basic analysis methods to assess the landscape impact of development projects and to monitor the landscape in the future. Among the development projects affecting natural landscapes, as reported in the statement of the environmental impact assessment, cases of construction of a single building or other small-scale development projects were studied. Four spot development projects were analyzed in depth for their landscape impacts, in order to make recommendations for the LCP selection procedure, which aims to widen the scope of selection according to the direction of viewpoints from the target site. The existing results of analysis based on LCP have limitations because they failed to cover the viewshed of the target buildings when there are topographical changes in the surroundings. As a solution to this problem, a new viewshed analysis method has been proposed, with a focus on the development site and target buildings, rather than viewpoints, as used in past analysis.

Development of Traffic Volume Estimation System in Main and Branch Roads to Estimate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Road Transportation Category (도로수송부문 온실가스 배출량 산정을 위한 간선 및 지선도로상의 교통량 추정시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Lee, Tae-Jung;Jung, Won-Seok;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.233-248
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    • 2012
  • The national emission from energy sector accounted for 84.7% of all domestic emissions in 2007. Of the energy-use emissions, the emission from mobile source as one of key categories accounted for 19.4% and further the road transport emission occupied the most dominant portion in the category. The road transport emissions can be estimated on the basis of either the fuel consumed (Tier 1) or the distance travelled by the vehicle types and road types (higher Tiers). The latter approach must be suitable for simultaneously estimating $CO_2$, $CH_4$, and $N_2O$ emissions in local administrative districts. The objective of this study was to estimate 31 municipal GHG emissions from road transportation in Gyeonggi Province, Korea. In 2008, the municipalities were consisted of 2,014 towns expressed as Dong and Ri, the smallest administrative district unit. Since mobile sources are moving across other city and province borders, the emission estimated by fuel sold is in fact impossible to ensure consistency between neighbouring cities and provinces. On the other hand, the emission estimated by distance travelled is also impossible to acquire key activity data such as traffic volume, vehicle type and model, and road type in small towns. To solve the problem, we applied a hierarchical cluster analysis to separate town-by-town road patterns (clusters) based on a priori activity information including traffic volume, population, area, and branch road length obtained from small 151 towns. After identifying 10 road patterns, a rule building expert system was developed by visual basic application (VBA) to assort various unknown road patterns into one of 10 known patterns. The expert system was self-verified with original reference information and then objects in each homogeneous pattern were used to regress traffic volume based on the variables of population, area, and branch road length. The program was then applied to assign all the unknown towns into a known pattern and to automatically estimate traffic volumes by regression equations for each town. Further VKT (vehicle kilometer travelled) for each vehicle type in each town was calculated to be mapped by GIS (geological information system) and road transport emission on the corresponding road section was estimated by multiplying emission factors for each vehicle type. Finally all emissions from local branch roads in Gyeonggi Province could be estimated by summing up emissions from 1,902 towns where road information was registered. As a result of the study, the GHG average emission rate by the branch road transport was 6,101 kilotons of $CO_2$ equivalent per year (kt-$CO_2$ Eq/yr) and the total emissions from both main and branch roads was 24,152 kt-$CO_2$ Eq/yr in Gyeonggi Province. The ratio of branch roads emission to the total was 0.28 in 2008.

An Exploration For Future Emerging Technologies by Science Mapping and a Dynamic Portfolio Setting for Government R&D Strategy (과학지도 작성을 통한 미래기술 발굴 및 정부R&D의 동적 투자방향성 설정 연구)

  • Yang, He-Young;Son, Suk-Ho;Han, Min-Kyu;Han, Jong-Min;Yim, Hyun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2011
  • Korean government built "2040 Science and Technology Future Vision" in order to show positive future scenarios and suggest a long-term guideline for a progress in science and technology. The S&T Future Vision was built based on an analysis of global megatrends and a prospect of domestic social change. After building S&T Future Vision, the "Government R&E Strategy"s was established as a follow-up action plan. The Government R&D Strategy consists of lists of future emerging technologies for future leadership, government R&D investment status and investment portfolio plans. Exploring future emerging technologies aggressively and making a governmental R&D strategic policy are requirements for national competitiveness, leadership in the world. Therefore search and selection for future emerging technologies is getting more and more important recently. Generally qualitative methodologies have been used such as expert-panel discussion method and portfolio analysis with expert valuation method in order to explore future technologies. These experts-based qualitative methodologies are well defined but lacking in some objectivity because size of expert-panels has limitations. We suggest a quantitative methodology, science mapping method to compensate this shortcoming in this study. There is another limitation related governmental R&D strategy which is that general R&D portfolios are static until a point of technology realization. We also propose a dynamic R&D investment portfolio which present different portfolios at a intermediate point and a point of technology realization. We expect this try with science mapping method and a dynamic R&D portfolio could strengthen strategic aspect of government R&D policy.

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Recognition and Attitudes on DNR of College Students (Focused on Comparison between Nursing and Non-Health Department College Students) (DNR에 대한 대학생들의 인식 및 태도(간호대학생과 비 보건계열대학생 비교를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Sung-Mi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.4907-4921
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    • 2010
  • The object of this descriptive survey research was to provide basic information source for building objective standards of DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) that can be clinically applied, by analyzing college students' awareness and attitude toward DNR. The participants of the study were 1,267 students from one college of Daegu, South Korea. The structured survey questionnaire was used for data collection, and the survey was conducted from 1-31 July, 2010. The error and percentage was estimated by SPSS 17.0 program, and analyzed with $x^2$-test. As a result of comparing the nursing students' and non-health care major students' awareness and attitude toward DNR, the significant differences were found in the necessity of DNR, reason for supporting DNR, reason for opposing DNR, and DNR decision-maker, among the awareness dimension; among the attitude dimension, significant differences were found in implication of family DNR and self-DNR. Comparing the nursing students' and non-health care major students' awareness toward DNR related information provision, researchers have found significant differences in the necessity of giving information on DNR, timing of the DNR information provision, result of the DNR-related information provision, and guidelines for the DNR information provision. In terms of the difference in DNR's necessity recognition by the demographic information, the significant differences existed based on the religion and the history of blood donation; in terms of the differences in attitude toward DNR decision-maker, the differences were found on the religion and the number of siblings. For the attitude toward family member's DNR, the significant differences existed for the sex, age, economic status, religion, the number of siblings, the history of familial illness and death, and experience of blood donation; the attitude toward the DNR for the self was significantly differed by the sex, economic status, the number of siblings, and the history of familial illness and death. To establish the standards for DNR based on the study, we suggest more well-designed future studies.

Perceptions on the Nature Trail in the National Park in the City - Focused on the Seoulite's Perception on Dullegil in Bukhansan National Park, Korea - (도시형 국립공원 둘레길 조성에 대한 시민 인식 - 북한산국립공원 둘레길에 대한 서울 시민의 인식을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jeong-Min
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.102-110
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    • 2011
  • The study aims to provide future implications for planning nature trails called Dullegil in the national park located in the city in Korea as new visiting culture for sustainability of environment and use. The telephone survey used quota sampling with 300 Seoulite ages from 20 to 69 by area, gender, and age, which was conducted to find out the perception on a Dullegil in Bukhansan National Park. The result shows more than 65% of Seoulite go climbing and aiming the mountain top as a general visitor behavior. The intention to use Dullegil was very high at 58%, which forecasts the use of Dullegil as a substitute for a trail to the intensified mountain top. However, the effectiveness of Dullegil to divert intensive use could be limited as the major group of climbers showed relatively low intention to use Dullegil as an alternative. As for the management direction, majority favors balanced management between use and conservation, even if conservation was preferred to use. Most important guiding principle for building Dullegil was conservation of environment, the planning direction should be oriented to conserve the ecological environment of Bukhansan, and to enjoy its value. Facilities for visitor safety was most needed. Most preferable time and length were 1~3 hours and 11~20km, each. This study has a limitation as the site was limited to Bukhansan and potential demand for use was analyzed with the sample of Seoulite only. To come up with the results generally applicable, more detailed future researches by the visitor segmentation, use behavior, and demand are needed.

Retrieval of High Resolution Surface Net Radiation for Urban Area Using Satellite and CFD Model Data Fusion (위성 및 CFD모델 자료의 융합을 통한 도시지역에서의 고해상도 지표 순복사 산출)

  • Kim, Honghee;Lee, Darae;Choi, Sungwon;Jin, Donghyun;Her, Morang;Kim, Jajin;Hong, Jinkyu;Hong, Je-Woo;Lee, Keunmin;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.2_1
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    • pp.295-300
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    • 2018
  • Net radiation is the total amount of radiation energy used as a heat flux for the Earth's energy cycle, and net radiation from the surface is an important factor in areas such as hydrology, climate, meteorological studies and agriculture. It is very important to monitoring the net radiation through remote sensing to be able to understand the trend of heat island and urbanization phenomenon. However, net radiation estimation using only remote sensing data is generally causes difference in accuracy depending on cloud. Therefore, in this paper, we retrieved and monitored high resolution surface net radiation at 1 hour interval in Eunpyeong New Town where urbanization using Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS), Landsat-8 satellite and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model data reflecting the difference in building height. We compared the observed and estimated net radiation at the flux tower. As a result, estimated net radiation was similar trend to the observed net radiation as a whole and it had the accuracy of RMSE $54.29Wm^{-2}$ and Bias $27.42Wm^{-2}$. In addition, the calculated net radiation showed well the meteorological conditions such as precipitation, and showed the characteristics of net radiation for the vegetation and artificial area in the spatial distribution.