• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bias-Correction

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Estimation of LOADEST coefficients according to watershed characteristics (유역특성에 따른 LOADEST 회귀모형 매개변수 추정)

  • Kim, Kyeung;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Jung Hun;Park, Jihoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to estimate LOADEST (LOAD Estimator) coefficients for simulating pollutant loads in ungauged watersheds. Regression models of LOADEST were used to simulate pollutant loads, and the multiple linear regression (MLR) was used for coefficients estimation on watershed characteristics. The fifth and third model of LOADEST were selected to simulate T-N (Total-Nitrogen) and T-P (Total-Phosphorous) loads, respectively. The results and statistics indicated that regression models based on LOADEST simulated pollutant loads reasonably and model coefficients were reliable. However, the results also indicated that LOADEST underestimated pollutant loads and had a bias. For this reason, simulated loads were corrected the bias by a quantile mapping method in this study. Corrected loads indicated that the bias correction was effective. Using multiple regression analysis, a coefficient estimation methods according to the watershed characteristic were developed. Coefficients which calculated by MLR were used in models. The simulated result and statistics indicated that MLR estimated the model coefficients reasonably. Regression models developed in this study would help simulate pollutant loads for ungauged watersheds and be a screen model for policy decision.

Estimation of Waxy Corn Harvest Date over South Korea Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 활용한 남한지역 찰옥수수 수확일 추정)

  • Hur, Jina;Kim, Yong Seok;Jo, Sera;Shim, Kyo Moon;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Choi, Myeong-Ju;Kim, Young-Hyun;Kang, Mingu;Choi, Won Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2021
  • This study predicted waxy corn harvest date in South Korea using 30-year (1991-2020) hindcasts (1-6 month lead) produced by the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. To estimate corn harvest date, the cumulative temperature is used, which accumulated the daily observed and predicted temperatures from the seeding date (5 April) to the reference temperature (1,650~2,200℃) for harvest. In terms of the mean air temperature, the hindcasts with a bias correction (20.2℃) tends to have a cold bias of about 0.1℃ for the 6 months (April to September) compared to the observation (20.3℃). The harvest date derived from bias-corrected hindcasts (DOY 187~210) well simulates one from observation (DOY 188~211), despite a slight margin of 1.1~1.3 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the gridded (5 km) daily temperature and corn harvest date information based on the cumulative temperature in advance for all regions of South Korea.

Modeling the Effect of Consideration Set-Based Reference Price: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach (고려상품군을 반영한 준거가격효과의 모형화: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2006
  • A couple of previous studies have warned against the use of homogeneous choice models in assessing the effect of reference price since unaccounted for response heterogeneity may result in spurious reference price effects(Chang, Siddarth and Weinberg 1999; Bell and Lattin 2000). According to Meyer and Kahn(1991), not accounting for consideration set heterogeneity may also bias the effect parameters in the choice model. Therefore, failure to account for these two sources of bias, in fact, have cast doubt on the empirical support for reference price effects in general. In view of aforementioned potential sources of bias, the author investigates the robustness of loss aversion effect in the reference-dependent model after accounting for heterogeneity in response as well as consideration set. The proposed model defines individual household's consideration set based on the posterior distribution of preference obtained from the Empirical Bayes approach. In addition, the same posterior distribution is used to form household-specific reference prices. Response heterogeneity correction is carried out via the Latent Class approach. The proposed model outperforms the Reference-Dependent model that includes the reference price measure most often employed in the previous studies. This implies that as a way of simplifying decision task, consumers restrict their consideration set to a subset of available brands not only in making a brand choice but also in forming reference prices.

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Analysis of Position Error Variance on GNSS Augmentation System due to Non-Common Measurement Error (비공통오차 증가로 인한 위성항법보강시스템 위치 오차 분산 변화 분석)

  • Jun, Hyang-Sig;Ahn, Jong-Sun;Yeom, Chan-Hong;Lee, Young-Jae;Choi, Young-Kiu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.197-200
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    • 2008
  • A GNSS augmentation system provides precise position information using corrected GNSS pseudorange measurements. Common bias errors are corrected by PRC (Pseudorange Correction) between reference stations and a rover. However non-common errors (Ionospheric and Tropospheric noise error) are not corrected. Using position error variance this paper analyzes non-common errors (noise errors) of ionosphere and troposphere wet vapor.

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Evaluation of weather information for electricity demand forecasting (전력수요예측을 위한 기상정보 활용성평가)

  • Shin, YiRe;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1601-1607
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    • 2016
  • Recently, weather information has been increasingly used in various area. This study presents the necessity of hourly weather information for electricity demand forecasting through correlation analysis and multivariate regression model. Hourly weather data were collected by Meteorological Administration. Using electricity demand data, we considered TBATS exponential smoothing model with a sliding window method in order to forecast electricity demand. In this paper, we have shown that the incorporation of weather infromation into electrocity demand models can significantly enhance a forecasting capability.

Mesoscale Features and Forecasting Guidance of Heavy Rain Types over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 호우유형의 중규모 특성 및 예보 가이던스)

  • Kim, Sunyoung;Song, Hwan-Jin;Lee, Hyesook
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.463-480
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    • 2019
  • This study classified heavy rain types from K-means clustering for the hourly relationship between rainfall intensity and cloud top height over the Korean peninsula, and then examined their statistical characteristics for the period of June~August 2013~2018. Total rainfall amount of warm-type events was 2.65 times larger than that of the cold-type, whereas the lightning frequency divided by total rainfall for the warm-type was only 46% of the cold-type. Typical cold-type cases exhibited high cloud top height around 16 km, large reflectivity in the upper layer, and frequent lightning flashes under convectively unstable condition. Phenomenally, the cold-type cases corresponded to cloud cluster or multi-cell thunderstorms. However, two warm-type cases related to Changma and typhoon were characterized by heavy rainfall due to long duration, relatively low cloud top height and upper-level reflectivity, and the absence of lightning under the convectively neutral and extremely humid conditions. This study further confirmed that the forecast skill of rainfall could be improved by applying correction factor with the overestimation for cold-type and underestimation for warm-type cases in the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operational model (e.g., BIAS score was improved by 5%).

Compact Current Model of Single-Gate/Double-Gate Tunneling Field-Effect Transistors

  • Yu, Yun Seop;Najam, Faraz
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.2014-2020
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    • 2017
  • A compact current model applicable to both single-gate (SG) and double-gate (DG) tunneling field-effect transistors (TFETs) is presented. The model is based on Kane's band-to-band tunneling (BTBT) model. In this model, the well-known and previously-reported quasi-2-D solution of Poisson's equation is used for the surface potential and length of the tunneling path in the tunneling region. An analytical tunneling current expression is derived from expressions of derivatives of local electric field and surface potential with respect to tunneling direction. The previously reported correction factor with three fitting parameters, compensating for superlinear onset and saturation current with drain voltage, is used. Simulation results of the proposed TFET model are compared with those from a technology computer-aided-design (TCAD) simulator, and good agreement in all operational bias is demonstrated. The proposed SG/DG-TFET model is developed with Verilog-A for circuit simulation. A TFET inverter is simulated with the Verilog-A SG/DG-TFET model in the circuit simulator; the model exhibits typical inverter characteristics, thereby confirming its effectiveness.

Design of a Multi-Sensor Data Simulator and Development of Data Fusion Algorithm (다중센서자료 시뮬레이터 설계 및 자료융합 알고리듬 개발)

  • Lee, Yong-Jae;Lee, Ja-Seong;Go, Seon-Jun;Song, Jong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a multi-sensor data simulator and a data fusion algorithm for tracking high dynamic flight target from Radar and Telemetry System. The designed simulator generates time-asynchronous multiple sensor data with different data rates and communication delays. Measurement noises are incorporated by using realistic sensor models. The proposed fusion algorithm is designed by a 21st order distributed Kalman Filter which is based on the PVA model with sensor bias states. A fault detection and correction logics are included in the algorithm for bad data and sensor faults. The designed algorithm is verified by using both simulation data and actual real data.

COMPARISONS OF MTSAT-1R INFRARED CHANNEL MEASUREMENTS WITH MODIS/TERRA

  • Han, Hyo-Jin;Sohn, Byung-Ju;Park, Hye-Suk
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • v.2
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    • pp.651-654
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    • 2006
  • Infrared channels of newly launched Japanese geostationary satellite, MTSAT-1R are compared with well calibrated MODIS/Terra infrared measurements at 3.7, 6.7, 11, 12 ${\mu}m$ bands. There are four steps in this intercalibration method: 1) data collection, 2) spectral response function correction, 3) data collocation, and 4) calculation of mean bias and conversion coefficients. In order to minimize the navigation error of MTSAT-1R, comparisons are made over the area in which the viewing angle of MTSAT-1R is less than 50$^{\circ}$. The calibration method was tested for August 2005 and within the 40$^{\circ}N$-40$^{\circ}S$, 100$^{\circ}$E-180$^{\circ}$E domain. The differences of spectral response functions were corrected through radiative transfer model simulation. Constructing collocated data differences in viewing geometry, observation time and space were taken into account. In order to avoid the radiance variation induced by cloud presence, clear-sky targets are selected as intercalibration target. The mean biases of 11, 12, 6.7, and 3.7 ${\mu}m$ bands are about -0.16, 0.36, 1.31, and -6.69 K, suggesting that accuracies of 3.7 ${\mu}m$ is questionable while other channels are comparable to MODIS

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Estimation of G/R Ration for the Correction of Mean-Field Bias of Very-Short-Term Rainfall Forecasting (초단기예측강우의 편의보정을 위한 G/R비 추정)

  • Yoo, Chulsang;Kim, Jungho;Chung, Jae Hak;Yang, Dong-Min
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.176-176
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    • 2011
  • 전 세계적으로 국지성 집중호우의 발생이 증가하고 있다(건설교통부, 2007 ; 김광섭과 김종필, 2008). 특히, 국내의 경우 급속한 도시화에 의한 기상 변화의 영향으로 서울 및 중소도시 지역에 집중호우의 발생이 크게 증가하였고, 산악지역에 발생한 강도 높은 집중호우로 인하여 돌발홍수의 발생 또한 급증하고 있다. 이처럼 집중호우는 단시간에 큰 강우강도를 동반하여 돌발홍수를 유발할 뿐만 아니라 잦은 발생으로 인하여 막대한 재산 손실과 인명 피해를 초래하고 있다(유철상 등, 2007a). 현실적으로 이러한 이상호우에 의한 피해를 원천적으로 방지하는 것은 불가능하다. 그러나 어느 정도(accuracy) 이상의 강우예측이 전제된다면 피해의 규모를 크게 줄일 수 있는 것이 또한 사실이다(유철상 등, 2007b). 집중호우로 인한 피해의 주범은 수 시간이내에 발생하는 돌발홍수로서 이에 대한 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 정확한 초단기예측 강우가 절실한 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 초단기예측 강우의 보정을 목적으로 G/R 비를 예측하였다. 먼저, 강우의 임계치와 누적시간에 따른 G/R 비의 특성변화를 검토하여 G/R 비 산정방법을 개선하였다. 초단기예측 강우로 캐나다 McGill 대학교에서 개발된 MAPLE 예측강우를 사용하였으며, 이를 보정하기 위하여 칼만 필터를 이용하여 G/R 비를 실시간으로 예측하였다. 이러한 분석은 레이더 자료의 품질이 가장 양호할 것으로 판단되는 내륙지역을 대상으로 하였다. 결과적으로 강우의 임계치와 누적시간의 고려를 통해 안정화된 G/R 비의 산정이 가능하였으며, 이를 이용함으로서 예측 G/R 비의 정확성이 보다 향상되었다.

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