• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bias Estimation

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Analysis of Bias in the Runoff Results Due to the Application of Effective Soil Depth (유효토심을 적용한 유출해석 결과의 왜곡 분석)

  • Sunguk Song;Chulsang Yoo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the possible problem in the rainfall-runoff analysis process using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model caused by using the effective soil depth instead of the soil depth. The parameters of the model are determined as follows. First, parameters that can be determined using available numerical information are fixed. For parameters related to direct runoff and base runoff, the recommended values of the VIC model are applied. In the case of soil depth, four cases are considered: (1) the effective soil depth is applied as the soil depth, (2) 1.5 times of the effective soil depth is applied as the soil depth by reflecting the vertical structure of the soil layer, (3) 1.25 times of the effective soil depth, and (4) 2.0 times of the effective soil depth as alternative soil depths. This study simulates the rainfall-runoff for the period from 1983 to 2020 targeting the Chungju Dam and Soyang River Dam basins of the Han River system. As a result of the study, it is confirmed that when the effective soil depth is applied instead of the soil depth, direct runoff and baseflow have opposite effects, and direct runoff increases by more than 3% while base runoff decreases by the same scale. In addition, the most influential factor in the estimation of the effective soil depth in the Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam basins is found to be the proportion of rock outcrop area. The difference between the direct runoff ratio and the base runoff ratio in the two basins is conformed significantly different due to the influence of the rock outcrop area.

Comparison of accuracy of breeding value for cow from three methods in Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population

  • Hyo Sang Lee;Yeongkuk Kim;Doo Ho Lee;Dongwon Seo;Dong Jae Lee;Chang Hee Do;Phuong Thanh N. Dinh;Waruni Ekanayake;Kil Hwan Lee;Duhak Yoon;Seung Hwan Lee;Yang Mo Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.720-734
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, Korea Proven Bulls (KPN) program has been well-developed. Breeding and evaluation of cows are also an essential factor to increase earnings and genetic gain. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of cow breeding value by using three methods (pedigree index [PI], pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction [PBLUP], and genomic-BLUP [GBLUP]). The reference population (n = 16,971) was used to estimate breeding values for 481 females as a test population. The accuracy of GBLUP was 0.63, 0.66, 0.62 and 0.63 for carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS), respectively. As for the PBLUP method, accuracy of prediction was 0.43 for CWT, 0.45 for EMA, 0.43 for MS, and 0.44 for BFT. Accuracy of PI method was the lowest (0.28 to 0.29 for carcass traits). The increase by approximate 20% in accuracy of GBLUP method than other methods could be because genomic information may explain Mendelian sampling error that pedigree information cannot detect. Bias can cause reducing accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) for selected animals. Regression coefficient between true breeding value (TBV) and GBLUP EBV, PBLUP EBV, and PI EBV were 0.78, 0.625, and 0.35, respectively for CWT. This showed that genomic EBV (GEBV) is less biased than PBLUP and PI EBV in this study. In addition, number of effective chromosome segments (Me) statistic that indicates the independent loci is one of the important factors affecting the accuracy of BLUP. The correlation between Me and the accuracy of GBLUP is related to the genetic relationship between reference and test population. The correlations between Me and accuracy were -0.74 in CWT, -0.75 in EMA, -0.73 in MS, and -0.75 in BF, which were strongly negative. These results proved that the estimation of genetic ability using genomic data is the most effective, and the smaller the Me, the higher the accuracy of EBV.

Estimation of the Spring and Summer Net Community Production in the Ulleung Basin using Machine Learning Methods (기계학습법을 이용한 동해 울릉분지의 봄과 여름 순군집생산 추정)

  • DOSHIK HAHM;INHEE LEE;MINKI CHOO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2024
  • The southwestern part of the East Sea is known to have a high primary productivity compared to those in the northern and eastern parts, which is attributed to nutrients supplies either by Tsushima Warm Current or by coastal upwelling. However, research on the biological pump in this area is limited. We developed machine learning models to estimate net community production (NCP), a measure of biological pump, with high spatial and time scales of 4 km and 8 days, respectively. The models were fed with the input parameters of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, mixed layer depths, and photosynthetically active radiation and trained with observed NCP derived from high resolution measurements of surface O2/Ar. The root mean square error between the predicted values by the best performing machine model and the observed NCP was 6 mmol O2 m-2 d-1, corresponding to 15% of the average of observed NCP. The NCP in the central part of the Ulleung Basin was highest in March at 49 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 and lowest in June and July at 18 mmol O2 m-2 d-1. These seasonal variations were similar to the vertical nitrate flux based on the 3He gas exchange rate and to the particulate organic carbon flux estimated by the 234Th disequilibrium method. To expand this method, which produces NCP estimate for spring and summer, to autumn and winter, it is necessary to devise a way to correct bias in NCP by the entrainment of subsurface waters during the seasons.

Simultaneous Estimation of the Fat Fraction and R2* Via T2*-Corrected 6-Echo Dixon Volumetric Interpolated Breath-hold Examination Imaging for Osteopenia and Osteoporosis Detection: Correlations with Sex, Age, and Menopause

  • Donghyun Kim;Sung Kwan Kim;Sun Joo Lee;Hye Jung Choo;Jung Won Park;Kun Yung Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.916-930
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    • 2019
  • Objective: To investigate the relationships of T2*-corrected 6-echo Dixon volumetric interpolated breath-hold examination (VIBE) imaging-based fat fraction (FF) and R2* values with bone mineral density (BMD); determine their associations with sex, age, and menopause; and evaluate the diagnostic performance of the FF and R2* for predicting osteopenia and osteoporosis. Materials and Methods: This study included 153 subjects who had undergone magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, including MR spectroscopy (MRS) and T2*-corrected 6-echo Dixon VIBE imaging. The FF and R2* were measured at the L4 vertebra. The male and female groups were divided into two subgroups according to age or menopause. Lin's concordance and Pearson's correlation coefficients, Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement, and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. Results: The correlation between the spectroscopic and 6-echo Dixon VIBE imaging-based FF values was statistically significant for both readers (pc = 0.940 [reader 1], 0.908 [reader 2]; both p < 0.001). A small measurement bias was observed for the MRS-based FF for both readers (mean difference = -0.3% [reader 1], 0.1% [reader 2]). We found a moderate negative correlation between BMD and the FF (r = -0.411 [reader 1], -0.436 [reader 2]; both p <0.001) with younger men and premenopausal women showing higher correlations. R2* and BMD were more significantly correlated in women than in men, and the highest correlation was observed in postmenopausal women (r = 0.626 [reader 1], 0.644 [reader 2]; both p < 0.001). For predicting osteopenia and osteoporosis, the FF had a higher AUC in men and R2* had a higher AUC in women. The AUC for predicting osteoporosis was highest with a combination of the FF and R2* in postmenopausal women (AUC = 0.872 [reader 1], 0.867 [reader 2]; both p < 0.001). Conclusion: The FF and R2* measured using T2*-corrected 6-echo Dixon VIBE imaging can serve as predictors of osteopenia and osteoporosis. R2* might be useful for predicting osteoporosis, especially in postmenopausal women.

Assessment and Calibration of Ultrasonic Velocity Measurement for Estimating the Weathering Index of Stone Cultural Heritage (석조문화재의 풍화지수 산정을 위한 초음파속도의 평가 및 보정)

  • Lee, Young-Jun;Keehm, Young-Seuk;Lee, Min-Hui;Han, June-Hee;Kim, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.126-138
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    • 2012
  • Ultrasonic method is widely used for the evaluation of weathering index and of degree of deterioration because it is easily applicable $in$ $situ$. The basic idea of the method is that the ultrasonic velocity decreases as a rock is being weathered. Thus, the difference of ultrasonic velocities between fresh rock and weathered rock indicates the degree of weathering. In this method, the ultrasonic velocity of fresh rock is assumed to be 5,000 m/s. However, this assumption can cause significant errors in estimating weathering index, especially in case that those rocks of the same type have a wide range of ultrasonic velocities such as in Korea. Therefore, we obtained twenty rock specimens and sixty core samples commonly used for stone cultural heritages in Korea, and measured ultrasonic velocities. From the results, we found that the ultrasonic velocities of the same rock type, granite samples range from 3,118 to 5,380 m/s, and that the estimated weathering index can be highly biased if we use the fixed value of 5,000 m/s. We created a database (DB) by combining the measurement data and reported it. We also measured ultrasonic velocities by direct and indirect methods to quantify the calibration coefficient for each sampling site. We found that the calibration coefficients vary widely from site to site (1.31-1.76). Other factors, such as operator bias and temperature did not show any significant effect on errors in ultrasonic velocity measurements. Lastly, we applied our ultrasonic velocity DB and calibration coefficients to a stone cultural heritage, Bonghwang-ri Buddha statue. Our estimation of the weathering index was 0.3, 0.1 smaller than that by conventional method. The degree of deterioration was also different, "moderately weathered", while conventional method gave "highly weathered". Since other independent studies reported that the degree of deterioration of the Buddha statue was "moderately weathered", our estimation seems to be more accurate. Thus our method can help accurately evaluate the weathering index and the conservation planning for a stone cultural heritage.

Comparison of Algorithms for Generating Parametric Image of Cerebral Blood Flow Using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET Positron Emission Tomography (${H_2}^{15}O$ PET을 이용한 뇌혈류 파라메트릭 영상 구성을 위한 알고리즘 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Kwang-Suk;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.288-300
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To obtain regional blood flow and tissue-blood partition coefficient with time-activity curves from ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET, fitting of some parameters in the Kety model is conventionally accomplished by nonlinear least squares (NLS) analysis. However, NLS requires considerable compuation time then is impractical for pixel-by-pixel analysis to generate parametric images of these parameters. In this study, we investigated several fast parameter estimation methods for the parametric image generation and compared their statistical reliability and computational efficiency. Materials and Methods: These methods included linear least squres (LLS), linear weighted least squares (LWLS), linear generalized least squares (GLS), linear generalized weighted least squares (GWLS), weighted Integration (WI), and model-based clustering method (CAKS). ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET with Poisson noise component was simulated using numerical Zubal brain phantom. Error and bias in the estimation of rCBF and partition coefficient, and computation time in various noise environments was estimated and compared. In audition, parametric images from ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET data peformed on 16 healthy volunteers under various physiological conditions was compared to examine the utility of these methods for real human data. Results: These fast algorithms produced parametric images with similar image qualify and statistical reliability. When CAKS and LLS methods were used combinedly, computation time was significantly reduced and less than 30 seconds for $128{\times}128{\times}46$ images on Pentium III processor. Conclusion: Parametric images of rCBF and partition coefficient with good statistical properties can be generated with short computation time which is acceptable in clinical situation.

Estimation of Surface Solar Radiation using Ground-based Remote Sensing Data on the Seoul Metropolitan Area (수도권지역의 지상기반 원격탐사자료를 이용한 지표면 태양에너지 산출)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik;Lee, Hankyung;Chae, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Sangil
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.228-240
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    • 2018
  • Solar energy is calculated using meteorological (14 station), ceilometer (2 station) and microwave radiometer (MWR, 7 station)) data observed from the Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) on the Seoul metropolitan area. The cloud optical thickness and the cloud fraction are calculated using the back-scattering coefficient (BSC) of the ceilometer and liquid water path of the MWR. The solar energy on the surface is calculated using solar radiation model with cloud fraction from the ceilometer and the MWR. The estimated solar energy is underestimated compared to observations both at Jungnang and Gwanghwamun stations. In linear regression analysis, the slope is less than 0.8 and the bias is negative which is less than $-20W/m^2$. The estimated solar energy using MWR is more improved (i.e., deterministic coefficient (average $R^2=0.8$) and Root Mean Square Error (average $RMSE=110W/m^2$)) than when using ceilometer. The monthly cloud fraction and solar energy calculated by ceilometer is greater than 0.09 and lower than $50W/m^2$ compared to MWR. While there is a difference depending on the locations, RMSE of estimated solar radiation is large over $50W/m^2$ in July and September compared to other months. As a result, the estimation of a daily accumulated solar radiation shows the highest correlation at Gwanghwamun ($R^2=0.80$, RMSE=2.87 MJ/day) station and the lowest correlation at Gooro ($R^2=0.63$, RMSE=4.77 MJ/day) station.

Estimation of forest Site Productivity by Regional Environment and Forest Soil Factors (권역별 입지$\cdot$토양 환경 요인에 의한 임지생산력 추정)

  • Won Hyong-kyu;Jeong Jin-Hyun;Koo Kyo-Sang;Song Myung Hee;Shin Man Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to develop regional site index equations for main tree species in Gangwon, Gyunggi-Chungcheong, Gyungsang, and Jeolla area of Korea, using environmental and soil factors obtained from a digital forest site map. Using the large data set obtained from the digital forest map, a total of 28 environmental and soil factors were regressed on site index by tree species for developing the best site index equations for each of the regions. The selected main tree species were Larix 1eptolepis, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus densiflora, Pinus thunbergii, and Quercus acutissima. Finally, four to five environmental and soil factors by species were chosen as independent variables in defining the best regional site index equations with the highest coefficients of determination $(R^2)$. For those site index equations, three evaluation statistics such as mean difference, standard deviation of difference and standard error of difference were applied to the data sets independently collected from fields within the region. According to the evaluation statistics, it was found that the regional site index equations by species developed in this study conformed well to the independent data set, having relatively low bias and variation. It was concluded that the regional site index equations by species had sufficient capability for the estimation of site productivity.

Development of Diameter Distribution Change and Site Index in a Stand of Robinia pseudoacacia, a Major Honey Plant (꿀샘식물 아까시나무의 지위지수 도출 및 직경분포 변화)

  • Kim, Sora;Song, Jungeun;Park, Chunhee;Min, Suhui;Hong, Sunghee;Yun, Junhyuk;Son, Yeongmo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.2
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2022
  • We conducted this study to derive the site index, which is a criterion for the planting of Robinia pseudoacacia, a honey plant, and to investigate the diameter distribution change by derived site index. We applied the Chapman-Richards equation model to estimate the site index of the Robinia pseudoacacia stand. The site index was distributed within the range of 16-22 when the base age was 30 years. The fitness index of the site index estimation model was low, but we judged that there was no problem in the application because the residual distribution of the equation had not shifted to one side. We used the Weibull diameter distribution function to determine the diameter distribution of the Robinia pseudoacacia stand by site index. We used the mean diameter and the dominant tree height as independent variables to present the diameter distribution, and our analysis procedure was to estimate and recover the parameters of the Weibull diameter distribution function. We used the mean diameter and the dominant tree height of the Robinia pseudoacacia stand to show distribution by diameter class, and the fitness index for dbh distribution estimation was about 80.5%. As a result of schematizing the diameter distribution by site indices as a 30-year-old, we found that the higher the site index, the more the curve of the diameter distribution moved to the right. This suggests that if the plantation were to be established in a high site index stand, considering the suitable trees on the site, the growth of Robinia pseudoacacia woul d become active, and not onl y the production of wood but al so the production of honey would increase. We therefore anticipate that the site index classification table and curve of this Robinia pseudoacacia stand will become the standard for decision making in the plantation and management of this tree.

Estimation of Stem Taper Equations and Stem Volume Table for Phyllostachys pubescens Mazel in South Korea (맹종죽의 수간곡선식 및 수간재적표 추정)

  • Eun-Ji, Bae;Yeong-Mo, Son;Jin-Taek, Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.622-629
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    • 2022
  • The study aim was to derive a stem taper equation for Phyllostachys pubescens, a type of bamboo in South Korea, and to develop a stem volume table. To derive the stem taper equation, three stem taper models (Max & Burkhart, Kozak, and Lee) were used. Since bamboo stalks are hollow because of its woody characteristics, the outer and inner diameters of the tree were calculated, and connecting them enabled estimating the tree curves. The results of the three equations for estimating the outer and inner diameters led to selection of the Kozak model for determining the optimal stem taper because it had the highest fitness index and lowest error and bias. We used the Kozak model to estimate the diameter of Phyllostachys pubescens by stem height, which proved optimal, and drew the stem curve. After checking the residual degree in the stem taper equation, all residuals were distributed around "0", which proved the suitability of the equation. To calculate the stem volume of Phyllostachys pubescens, a rotating cube was created by rotating the stem curve with the outer diameter at 360°, and the volume was calculated by applying Smalian's method. The volume of Phyllostachys pubescens was calculated by deducting the inner diameter calculated volume from the outer diameter calculated volume. The volume of Phyllostachys pubescens was only 20~30% of the volume of Larix kaempferi, which is a general species. However, considering the current trees/ha of Phyllostachys pubescens and the amount of bamboo shoots generated every year, the individual tree volume was predicted to be small, but the volume/ha was not very different or perhaps more. The significance of this study is the stem taper equation and stem volume table for Phyllostachys pubescens developed for the first time in South Korea. The results are expected to be used as basic data for bamboo trading that is in increasing public and industrial demand and carbon absorption estimation.