• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권6호
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• pp.870-875
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• 2013

After introducing diagnosis equipment power failure prevention activities for distribution system have become more active. To do facility diagnosis and maintenance work more efficiently we need to evaluate reliability for the system and should determine the priority line with appropriate criteria. Thus, to calculate risk factor for the power distribution line that are composed of many component facilities its historical failure events for the last 5 years are collected and analysed. The failure statics show that more than 60% of various failures are related to environment factors randomly and about 20% of the failures are refer to the aging. As a strategic evaluation system reflecting these environmental influence is needed, a system on the basis of the probabilistic approach related statical variables in terms of failure rate and failure probability of electrical components is proposed. The figures for the evaluation are derived from the field failure DB. With adopting Bayesian rule we can calculate easily about conditional probability query. The proposed evaluation system is demonstrated with model system and the calculated indices representing the properties of the model line are discussed.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.99-112
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• 2000

In this paper we discuss the teaching methods about statistical inferences. Bayesian methods have the attractive feature that statistical conclusions can be stated using the language of subjective probability. Simple methods of teaching Bayes' rule described, and these methods are illustrated for inference and prediction problems for one proportions. Also, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of traditional and Bayesian approachs in teaching inference.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.83-91
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• 1997

DELVAUX is an inductive learning environment that learns Bayesian classification rules from a set o examples. In DELVAUX, a genetic a, pp.oach is employed to learn the best rule-set, in which a population consists of rule-sets and rule-sets generate offspring by exchanging some of their rules. We have explored a meta-learning a, pp.oach in the DELVAUX learning environment to improve the classification performance of the DELVAUX system. The meta-learning a, pp.oach learns the bias of a classifier so that it can evaluate the prediction made by the classifier for a given example and thereby improve the overall performance of a classifier system. The paper discusses the meta-learning a, pp.oach in details and presents some empirical results that show the improvement we can achieve with the meta-learning a, pp.oach.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.158-163
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• 2012

본 논문에서 나이브 베이지안 알고리즘, 데이터 마이닝, Fuzzy logic을 이용하여 이상 공격과 오용 공격을 탐지하는 하이브리드 침입탐지시스템인 FHIDS(Fuzzy logic based Hybrid Intrusion Detection System)을 설계하였다. 본 논문에서 설계한 FHIDS의 NB-AAD(Naive Bayesian based Anomaly Attack Detection)기법은 나이브 베이지안 알고리즘을 이용해 이상 공격을 탐지하고, DM-MAD(Data Mining based Misuse Attack Detection)기법은 데이터 마이닝 알고리즘을 이용하여 패킷들의 연관 규칙을 분석하여 새로운 규칙기반 패턴을 생성하거나 변형된 규칙 기반 패턴을 추출함으로써, 새로운 공격이나 변형된 공격을 탐지한다. 그리고 FLD(Fuzzy Logic based Decision)은 NB-AAD과 DM-MAD의 결과를 이용하여 정상인지 공격인지를 판별한다. 즉, FHIDS는 이상과 오용공격을 탐지 가능하며 False Positive 비율을 감소시키고, 변형 공격 탐지율을 개선한 하이브리드 공격탐지시스템이다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.411-430
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• 2018

The Bayesian approach is a suitable alternative in constructing appropriate models for observed record values because the number of these values is small. This paper provides an objective Bayesian analysis method for upper record values arising from the Rayleigh distribution. For the objective Bayesian analysis, the Fisher information matrix for unknown parameters is derived in terms of the second derivative of the log-likelihood function by using Leibniz's rule; subsequently, objective priors are provided, resulting in proper posterior distributions. We examine if these priors are the PMPs. In a simulation study, inference results under the provided priors are compared through Monte Carlo simulations. Through real data analysis, we reveal a limitation of the appropriate confidence interval based on the maximum likelihood estimator for the scale parameter and evaluate the models under the provided priors.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2006년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.205-213
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• 2006

This paper considers testing for the ratio of two exponential means. We propose a solution based on a Bayesian decision rule to this problem in which no subjective input is considered. The criterion for testing is the Bayesian reference criterion (Bernardo, 1999). We derive the Bayesian reference criterion for testing the ratio of two exponential means. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.

• 논리연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.155-187
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• 2013

본 논문의 목적은 베이즈주의 믿음 갱신 규칙인 조건화를 옹호하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 필자는 경험과 무관한 믿음은 바뀌지 말아야 한다는 무관성 원리를 도입한다. 이 원리를 엄밀하게 정식화한 뒤, 무관성 원리와 조건화가 동치라는 것이 증명된다. 그리고 이 무관성 원리를 베이즈주의 입증 이론을 이용해서 옹호한다. 이를 위해서 필자는 베이즈주의 입증 이론가들이라면 받아들여야 하는 몇 가지 논제들을 제시하고, 무관성 원리를 위반한다면 그 논제들이 만족될 수 없다는 것을 보여준다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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• pp.868-871
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• 2006

Mortality of domestic people from cardiovascular disease ranked second, which followed that of from cancer last year. Therefore, it is very important and urgent to enhance the reliability of medical examination and treatment for cardiovascular disease. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is the most commonly used noninvasive methods to evaluate autonomic regulation of heart rate and conditions of a human heart. In this paper, our aim is to extract a quantitative measure for HRV to enhance the reliability of medical examination for cardiovascular disease, and then develop a prediction method for extracting multi-parametric features by analyzing HRV from ECG. In this study, we propose a hybrid Bayesian classifier called FP-based Bayesian. The proposed classifier use frequent patterns for building Bayesian model. Since the volume of patterns produced can be large, we offer a rule cohesion measure that allows a strong push of pruning patterns in the pattern-generating process. We conduct an experiment for the FP-based Bayesian classifier, which utilizes multiple rules and pruning, and biased confidence (or cohesion measure) and dataset consisting of 670 participants distributed into two groups, namely normal and patients with coronary artery disease.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제10권
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• pp.128-139
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• 1981

The Bayesian sequential estimation problem for k parameters exponential families is considered using loss related to the Fisher information. Tractable expressions for the Bayes estimator and the posterior expected loss are found, and the myopic or one-step-ahead stopping rule is defined. Sufficient conditions are given for optimality of the myopic procedure, and the myopic procedure is shown to be asymptotically optimal in all cases considered.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.203-210
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• 2003

In a standard Metropolis-type Monte Carlo simulation, the proposal distribution cannot be easily adapted to "local dynamics" of the target distribution. To overcome some of these difficulties, Duane et al. (1987) introduced the method of hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) which combines the basic idea of molecular dynamics and the Metropolis acceptance-rejection rule to produce Monte Carlo samples from a given target distribution. In this paper, using the HMC within Gibbs sampler, an asymptotical estimate of the smoothing mean and a general solution to state space modeling in Bayesian framework is obtaineds obtained.