• Title/Summary/Keyword: Average causal effect

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Estimating Average Causal Effect in Latent Class Analysis (잠재범주분석을 이용한 원인적 영향력 추론에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Gayoung;Chung, Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.1077-1095
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    • 2014
  • Unlike randomized trial, statistical strategies for inferring the unbiased causal relationship are required in the observational studies. Recently, new methods for the causal inference in the observational studies have been proposed such as the matching with the propensity score or the inverse probability treatment weighting. They have focused on how to control the confounders and how to evaluate the effect of the treatment on the result variable. However, these conventional methods are valid only when the treatment variable is categorical and both of the treatment and the result variables are directly observable. Research on the causal inference can be challenging in part because it may not be possible to directly observe the treatment and/or the result variable. To address this difficulty, we propose a method for estimating the average causal effect when both of the treatment and the result variables are latent. The latent class analysis has been applied to calculate the propensity score for the latent treatment variable in order to estimate the causal effect on the latent result variable. In this work, we investigate the causal effect of adolescents delinquency on their substance use using data from the 'National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health'.

Latent causal inference using the propensity score from latent class regression model (잠재범주회귀모형의 성향점수를 이용한 잠재변수의 원인적 영향력 추론 연구)

  • Lee, Misol;Chung, Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.615-632
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    • 2017
  • Unlike randomized trial, statistical strategies for inferring the unbiased causal relationship are required in the observational studies. The matching with the propensity score is one of the most popular methods to control the confounders in order to evaluate the effect of the treatment on the outcome variable. Recently, new methods for the causal inference in latent class analysis (LCA) have been proposed to estimate the average causal effect (ACE) of the treatment on the latent discrete variable. They have focused on the application study for the real dataset to estimate the ACE in LCA. In practice, however, the true values of the ACE are not known, and it is difficult to evaluate the performance of the estimated the ACE. In this study, we propose a method to generate a synthetic data using the propensity score in the framework of LCA, where treatment and outcome variables are latent. We then propose a new method for estimating the ACE in LCA and evaluate its performance via simulation studies. Furthermore we present an empirical analysis based on data form the 'National Longitudinal Study of Adolescents Health,' where puberty as a latent treatment and substance use as a latent outcome variable.

Exploring modern machine learning methods to improve causal-effect estimation

  • Kim, Yeji;Choi, Taehwa;Choi, Sangbum
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2022
  • This paper addresses the use of machine learning methods for causal estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Even though conducting randomized experimental trials is a gold standard to reveal potential causal relationships, observational study is another rich source for investigation of exposure effects, for example, in the research of comparative effectiveness and safety of treatments, where the causal effect can be identified if covariates contain all confounding variables. In this context, statistical regression models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment are often imposed, which can be combined in a clever way to yield more efficient and robust causal estimators. Recently, targeted maximum likelihood estimation and causal random forest is proposed and extensively studied for the use of data-adaptive regression in estimation of causal inference parameters. Machine learning methods are a natural choice in these settings to improve the quality of the final estimate of the treatment effect. We explore how we can adapt the design and training of several machine learning algorithms for causal inference and study their finite-sample performance through simulation experiments under various scenarios. Application to the percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) data shows that these adaptations can improve simple linear regression-based methods.

Causal inference from nonrandomized data: key concepts and recent trends (비실험 자료로부터의 인과 추론: 핵심 개념과 최근 동향)

  • Choi, Young-Geun;Yu, Donghyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.173-185
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    • 2019
  • Causal questions are prevalent in scientific research, for example, how effective a treatment was for preventing an infectious disease, how much a policy increased utility, or which advertisement would give the highest click rate for a given customer. Causal inference theory in statistics interprets those questions as inferring the effect of a given intervention (treatment or policy) in the data generating process. Causal inference has been used in medicine, public health, and economics; in addition, it has received recent attention as a tool for data-driven decision making processes. Many recent datasets are observational, rather than experimental, which makes the causal inference theory more complex. This review introduces key concepts and recent trends of statistical causal inference in observational studies. We first introduce the Neyman-Rubin's potential outcome framework to formularize from causal questions to average treatment effects as well as discuss popular methods to estimate treatment effects such as propensity score approaches and regression approaches. For recent trends, we briefly discuss (1) conditional (heterogeneous) treatment effects and machine learning-based approaches, (2) curse of dimensionality on the estimation of treatment effect and its remedies, and (3) Pearl's structural causal model to deal with more complex causal relationships and its connection to the Neyman-Rubin's potential outcome model.

Exploring the Role of Preference Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Online Ratings Dynamics

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Minjung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.61-101
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates when and how disagreements in online customer ratings prompt more favorable product evaluations. Among the three metrics of volume, valence, and variance that feature in the research on online customer ratings, volume and valence have exhibited consistently positive patterns in their effects on product sales or evaluations (e.g., Dellarocas, Zhang, and Awad 2007; Liu 2006). Ratings variance, or the degree of disagreement among reviewers, however, has shown rather mixed results, with some studies reporting positive effects on product sales (e.g., Clement, Proppe, and Rott 2007) while others finding negative effects on product evaluations (e.g., Zhu and Zhang 2010). This study aims to resolve these contradictory findings by introducing preference heterogeneity as a possible moderator and causal attribution as a mediator to account for the moderating effect. The main proposition of this study is that when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high, a disagreement in ratings is attributed more to reviewers' different preferences than to unreliable product quality, which in turn prompts better quality evaluations of a product. Because disagreements mostly result from differences in reviewers' tastes or the low reliability of a product's quality (Mizerski 1982; Sen and Lerman 2007), a greater level of attribution to reviewer tastes can mitigate the negative effect of disagreement on product evaluations. Specifically, if consumers infer that reviewers' heterogeneous preferences result in subjectively different experiences and thereby highly diverse ratings, they would not disregard the overall quality of a product. However, if consumers infer that reviewers' preferences are quite homogeneous and thus the low reliability of the product quality contributes to such disagreements, they would discount the overall product quality. Therefore, consumers would respond more favorably to disagreements in ratings when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high rather than low. This study furthermore extends this prediction to the various levels of average ratings. The heuristicsystematic processing model so far indicates that the engagement in effortful systematic processing occurs only when sufficient motivation is present (Hann et al. 2007; Maheswaran and Chaiken 1991; Martin and Davies 1998). One of the key factors affecting this motivation is the aspiration level of the decision maker. Only under conditions that meet or exceed his aspiration level does he tend to engage in systematic processing (Patzelt and Shepherd 2008; Stephanous and Sage 1987). Therefore, systematic causal attribution processing regarding ratings variance is likely more activated when the average rating is high enough to meet the aspiration level than when it is too low to meet it. Considering that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity occurs through the mediation of causal attribution, this greater activation of causal attribution in high versus low average ratings would lead to more pronounced interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity in high versus low average ratings. Overall, this study proposes that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high as compared to when it is low. Two laboratory studies lend support to these predictions. Study 1 reveals that participants exposed to a high-preference heterogeneity book title (i.e., a novel) attributed disagreement in ratings more to reviewers' tastes, and thereby more favorably evaluated books with such ratings, compared to those exposed to a low-preference heterogeneity title (i.e., an English listening practice book). Study 2 then extended these findings to the various levels of average ratings and found that this greater preference for disagreement options under high preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high compared to when it is low. This study makes an important theoretical contribution to the online customer ratings literature by showing that preference heterogeneity serves as a key moderator of the effect of ratings variance on product evaluations and that causal attribution acts as a mediator of this moderation effect. A more comprehensive picture of the interplay among ratings variance, preference heterogeneity, and average ratings is also provided by revealing that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity varies as a function of the average rating. In addition, this work provides some significant managerial implications for marketers in terms of how they manage word of mouth. Because a lack of consensus creates some uncertainty and anxiety over the given information, consumers experience a psychological burden regarding their choice of a product when ratings show disagreement. The results of this study offer a way to address this problem. By explicitly clarifying that there are many more differences in tastes among reviewers than expected, marketers can allow consumers to speculate that differing tastes of reviewers rather than an uncertain or poor product quality contribute to such conflicts in ratings. Thus, when fierce disagreements are observed in the WOM arena, marketers are advised to communicate to consumers that diverse, rather than uniform, tastes govern reviews and evaluations of products.

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An Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Knowledge and Behavior towards Food Hygiene among Child Consumers (아동소비자의 식품위생에 대한 지식과 행동의 인과관계 분석)

  • Kim, Mee-Ra;Kim, Hyo-Chung
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.44 no.3 s.217
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the levels of knowledge and behavior towards food hygiene among child consumers, examine the factors influencing them, and analyze the causal relationship between them. The data were collected from 521 elementary school students in Youngnam area by a self-administered questionnaire. Frequencies, Pearson's correlation analysis, multiple regression analyses, and path analysis were conducted by SPSS Windows. The results from this study were as follows. First, the level of knowledge towards food hygiene was not particularly high, and the level of behavior was somewhat more than the average. Second, the factors influencing the level of knowledge towards food hygiene were school record (upper and middle), and concerns about food hygiene. In addition, concerns about food hygiene, the frequency of food hygiene education in the family, and the level of knowledge towards food hygiene had an effect on the level of behavior towards food hygiene. Third, in the analysis of the causal relationship between the knowledge and behavior towards food hygiene, school record indirectly influenced the behavior towards food hygiene, and the frequency of food hygiene education in the family directly affected the behavior towards food hygiene. On the other hand, concerns about food hygiene had direct and indirect influence on the behavior towards food hygiene. In addition, the knowledge towards food hygiene showed a direct effect on the behavior towards food hygiene. These results imply that knowledge towards food hygiene is a very important factor to improve the children's behavior towards food hygiene and that parents' concerns and guidance for children are needed.

An Analysis of High School Students' Preference for Science and Its Causal Factors in terms of Gender Difference (일반계 고등학생의 성별 과학 선호도와 인과 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Heui-Baik;Kim, Mi-Young;Im, Sung-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.387-398
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate high school students' preference for science(PS) and its causal factors in terms of gender difference, and to suggest the way to improve students' preference for science. A questionnaire to evaluate the PS of high school students and its causal factors was specially designed by researchers. It was administered to 429 boys and 449 girls in eight high schools. The average score of the PS was 3.16 of 5.00 which was not high, but the PS scores of students who had wanted to be engaged in jobs related to science or medical field, were higher than the students who would be in other fields. There was no statistically significant difference between the boys' PS scores and girls', but the average scores of causal factors were higher in boys than in girls. Path analysis using a structural equation model was indicated that the pathways showing how causal factors made effects on each category of the boys' PS were simpler than those of girls. Particularly, while educational factors made indirect effects on three categories of the boys' PS, they did direct effects as well as indirect effect on the girls' PS. This means that the girls' PS is possible to be improved by applying the educational programs specially developed for girls.

Relationship between Green Consumer Behavior, Environmental Knowledge, and Environmental Attitudes among Students at the University of Education (교육대학교 재학생의 녹색소비자행동과 환경지식 및 환경태도의 관계)

  • Keum, Jiheon
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to identify a causal relationship among green consumer behavior, environmental knowledge and environmental attitudes of students at the university of education. A total of 366 copies of questionnaires were used for the data analysis; 31 copies were excluded due to lack of response to any given question. To ensure the reliability and validity of the questions, technical statistics were performed, such as frequency, ratio, average, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis via SPSS 15.0, item-total correlation and the totality, and reliability analysis. A structural analysis was undertaken via AMOS 7.0 in a bootstrapping method in order to perform a path analysis among variables as well as to assess the suitability of the model. The findings of the study were led to the following conclusions: First, the causal model among green consumer behavior, environmental knowledge and environmental attitudes of students at the university of education is suitable to the empirical analysis on research variables. Second, the environmental attitudes of students at the university of education has a direct, positive effect on green consumer behavior. Third, the environmental knowledge of students at the university of education has an indirect, positive effect on green consumer behavior.

Overview of estimating the average treatment effect using dimension reduction methods (차원축소 방법을 이용한 평균처리효과 추정에 대한 개요)

  • Mijeong Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2023
  • In causal analysis of high dimensional data, it is important to reduce the dimension of covariates and transform them appropriately to control confounders that affect treatment and potential outcomes. The augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) method is mainly used for estimation of average treatment effect (ATE). AIPW estimator can be obtained by using estimated propensity score and outcome model. ATE estimator can be inconsistent or have large asymptotic variance when using estimated propensity score and outcome model obtained by parametric methods that includes all covariates, especially for high dimensional data. For this reason, an ATE estimation using an appropriate dimension reduction method and semiparametric model for high dimensional data is attracting attention. Semiparametric method or sparse sufficient dimensionality reduction method can be uesd for dimension reduction for the estimation of propensity score and outcome model. Recently, another method has been proposed that does not use propensity score and outcome regression. After reducing dimension of covariates, ATE estimation can be performed using matching. Among the studies on ATE estimation methods for high dimensional data, four recently proposed studies will be introduced, and how to interpret the estimated ATE will be discussed.

The Relationship between the Career Preparation Behavior, Parental Social Support, Career Decision Making Self-Efficacy, and the Career Maturity of the Pre-Service Elementary School Teachers (교육대학생의 진로준비행동과 부모의 사회적 지지, 진로결정자기효능감 및 진로성숙의 관계)

  • Keum, Jiheon
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to identify a causal relationship in the career preparation behavior, parental social support, career decision making self-efficacy and the career maturity of the pre-service elementary school teachers. A total of 374 questionnaires were used for data analysis, excluding the 23 copies deemed insincere in response. To ensure the reliability and validity of the questions, technical statistics of the frequency, ratio, average, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis via PASW 18.0, item-total correlation, the totality, and the reliability analysis. The structural analysis via AMOS 7.0 in the bootstrapping method was undertaken to perform the path analysis among the variables and to assess the suitability of the model. The findings of the study led to the following conclusions: First, the causal model for the career preparation behavior, parental social support, career decision making self-efficacy, and the career maturity of the pre-service elementary school teachers is suitable to empirical analysis on research variables. Second, the career decision making self-efficacy of pre-service elementary teachers has direct effect on career preparation behavior positively. Third, parental social support of the pre-service elementary teachers has indirect effects on the career preparation behavior positively.