• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.100-137
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• 2019

In this study, I analyzed the effects of government spending on macro variables and on each industry by using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) and 167 macro-variables in Korea since 2000. The results reveal that the effects of two types of government spending - government consumption and government investment - greatly differ, therefore it is better to consider the two types of spending separately for a more precise analysis. The stimulus effects of government consumption are clear, but those of government investment are not. In addition, the crowding-out effects of government spending take place through the current account deficit channel rather than the traditional crowding-out channel, reducing private consumption and investment. Both types of government spending show a positive effect on the construction industry. Also, an increase in government consumption stimulates output in various manufacturing and service sectors.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.145-163
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• 2024

The evaluation of dynamic characteristics of bridges under operational traffic loads is a crucial aspect of bridge structural health monitoring. In the vehicle-bridge interaction (VBI) system, the vibration responses of bridge exhibit time-varying characteristics. To address this issue, an accurate time-frequency analysis method that combines the autoregressive power spectrum based empirical wavelet transform (AR-EWT) and local maximum synchrosqueezing transform (LMSST) is proposed to identify the time-varying instantaneous frequencies (IFs) of the bridge in the VBI system. The AR-EWT method decomposes the vibration response of the bridge into mono-component signals. Then, LMSST is employed to identify the IFs of each mono-component signal. The AR-EWT combined with the LMSST method (AR-EWT+LMSST) can resolve the problem that LMSST cannot effectively identify the multi-component signals with weak amplitude components. The proposed AR-EWT+LMSST method is compared with some advanced time-frequency analysis techniques such as synchrosqueezing transform (SST), synchroextracting transform (SET), and LMSST. The results demonstrate that the proposed AR-EWT+LMSST method can improve the accuracy of identified IFs. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method are validated through a multi-component signal, a VBI numerical model with a four-degree-of-freedom half-car, and a VBI model experiment. The effect of vehicle characteristics, vehicle speed, and road surface roughness on the identified IFs of bridge are investigated.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.5-17
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• 2017

The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia's financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China's economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.5-9
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.61 no.4
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• pp.287-306
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• 2009

This study examines the effect of children's school satisfaction on academic achievement using the Seoul Children Panel Study data. More specifically, this study aims to add new knowledge to understaning the causal relationship between school satisfaction and academic achievement by taking into account of temporal order of the events of interest. In the analysis, we examine the effect of school satisfaction at the 4th- and 5th- grades on academic achievement at the 6th grade while controlling for the other factors including the level of academic achievement at the 4th grade. The results show that children's school satisfaction significantly affects their academic achievement. The findings of this study have implications for the school social welfare programs that attempt to improve academic achievement of children by raising the level of school satisfaction among children.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.69-78
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• 2015

This paper considers a Bayesian Poisson model for multivariate count data using multiplicative rates. More specifically we compose the parameter for overall arrival rates by the product of two parameters, a common effect and an individual effect. The common effect is composed of autoregressive evolution of the parameter, which allows for analysis on seasonal effects on all multivariate time series. In addition, analysis on individual effects allows the researcher to differentiate the time series by whatevercharacterization of their choice. This type of model allows the researcher to specifically analyze two different forms of effects separately and produce a more robust result. We illustrate a simple MCMC generation combined with a Gibbs sampler step in estimating the posterior joint distribution of all parameters in the model. On the whole, the model presented in this study is an intuitive model which may handle complicated problems, and we highlight the properties and possible applications of the model with an example, analyzing real time series data involving customer arrivals to a large retail store.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.35-45
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• 2018

Purpose - The operating mechanism between education input and economic growth is a mysterious proposition that has attracted a vast array of scholars' interests to study on it. Therefore, this paper sets China as an example to analyze the dynamic relationship between education input and economic growth. Research design and methodology - The annual time series from 1990 to 2017 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector autoregressive model. The education input is treated as an factor that impacts the economic growth such as labor input and capital input. Meanwhile, the education input will be added to the Cobb-Douglas production function to form a new one so as to explore the dynamic relationship between education input and economic growth. Results - According to the results of empirical analysis, it can be found that the education input has an increasingly positive effect on economic growth. Simultaneously, the economic growth also has a positive effect on education input, but this kind of effect is not steady. Of course, the labor input and the capital input also can promote the economic growth to some degree. Conclusions - The education input is one of most important inputs for a country. Based on the empirical analysis, this paper suggests that the China's government should put more emphasis on the education input so to make its economy develop well.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.65-76
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• 2014

Housing prices are influenced by external shock factors such as real estate policy or economy. Thus, the intervention effect is important for the development of forecasting model for housing price index. In this paper, we examined the degree of effective power of external shock factors for forecasting housing price index and analyzed time series models for efficient forecasting of housing price index. It is shown that intervention models are better than other models in forecasting results using real data based on the accuracy criteria.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.289-301
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose Shewhart control chart and EWMA control chart using the autocorrelated data which are common in chemical and process industries and lead to increase the number of false alarms when conventional control charts are applied. The effect of autocorrelated data is modeled as a autoregressive process, and canonical analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality of the data set and find the canonical variables that explain as much of the data variation as possible. Charting statistics are constructed based on the residual vectors from the canonical variables which are uncorrelated over time, and the control charts for these statistics can attenuate the autocorrelation in the process data. The charting procedures are illustrated with a numerical example and simulation is conducted to investigate the performances of the proposed control charts.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.82-95
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• 1994

When independent individual measurements are taken both $S/c_4$ and $\bar{R}/d_2$ are unbiased estimators of the process standard deviation. However, with dependent data $\bar{R}/d_2$ is not an unbiased estimator of the process standard deviation. On the other hand $S/c_4$ is an asymptotic unbiased estimator. If there exists correlation in the data, positive(negative) correlation tends to increase(decrease) the ARL. The effect of using $\bar{R}/d_2$ is greater than $S/c_4$ if the assumption of independence is invalid. Supplementary runs rule shortens the ARL of X control charts dramatically in the presence of correlation in the data.