• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제55권11호
• /
• pp.4134-4145
• /
• 2023

This paper proposes strain-based failure model of A533B1 pressure vessel steel to simulate failure, followed by application to OECD lower head failure (OLHF) test simulation for experimental validation. The proposed strain-based failure model uses simple constant and linear functions based on physical failure modes with the critical strain value determined either using the lower bound of true fracture strain or using the average value of total elongation depending on the temperature. Application to OECD Lower Head Failure (OLHF) tests shows that progressive deformation, failure time and failure location can be well predicted.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제16권2호
• /
• pp.135-147
• /
• 1990

A nuclear power plant can be viewed as a large complex man-machine system where high system reliability is obtained by ensuring that sub-systems are designed to operate at a very high level of performance. The chance of severe accident involving at least partial core-melt is very low but once it happens the consequence is very catastrophic. The prediction of risk in low probability, high-risk incidents must be examined in the contest of general engineering knowledge and operational experience. Engineering knowledge forms part of the prior information that must be quantified and then updated by statistical evidence gathered from operational experience. Recently, Bayesian procedures have been used to estimate rate of accident and to predict future risks. The Bayesian procedure has advantages in that it efficiently incorporates experts opinions and, if properly applied, it adaptively updates the model parameters such as the rate or probability of accidents. But at the same time it has the disadvantages of computational complexity. The predictive distribution for the time to next incident can not always be expected to end up with a nice closed form even with conjugate priors. Thus we often encounter a numerical integration problem with high dimensions to obtain a predictive distribution, which is practically unsolvable for a model that involves many parameters. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose a method of approximation that essentially breaks down a problem involving many integrations into several repetitive steps so that each step involves only a small number of integrations.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.389-391
• /
• 2021

국민의 안전을 위해 교통사고를 방지하고자 교통 규제는 계속 확대되고 있지만, 교통사고는 여전히 줄어들지 않고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상청의 날씨 예측 데이터, 도로교통공단의 요일, 시간대, 장소별 교통사고 발생 데이터, 특정 위치 정보 등 다양한 요인들의 연관관계를 인공지능을 활용하여 분석함으로써 특정 시간, 장소에 대한 교통사고 발생 확률을 예측하고자 한다. 본 연구는 이전의 수많은 교통사고 발생에 대한 객관적인 데이터와 기존의 다른 연구들에서 활용되지 않은 다양한 추가 요소들을 접목시켜 더욱 향상된 교통사고 발생 확률 예측 모델을 도출한다. 본 연구 결과는 국민의 안전한 삶을 위한 다양한 교통 관련 서비스에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 가을학술발표대회논문집
• /
• pp.251-252
• /
• 2023

Compared to other industries the construction industry experiences more casualties and property damage due to safety accidents. One of the reasons is the increasing number of foreign workers. For this reason, past studies have found that foreign workers at construction sites are more exposed to safety accidents than non-foreign workers. Nevertheless the proportion of foreign workers involved in safety accidents at construction sites is increasing, and there has been a lack of research to predict the risk of safety accidents at construction sites. Additionally, realistic safety management is lacking due to a lack of safety accident risk prediction research. Therefore, in this study, we would like to propose basic research that proposes an AI-based safety accident prediction model framework for predicting safety accidents of foreign workers at construction sites. The framework and results of this study will contribute to reducing and preventing the risk of safety accidents for foreign workers through risk prediction for safety management of foreign workers at construction sites.

• 한국직업건강간호학회지
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.65-74
• /
• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제27권3호
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2022

해양조난사고 발생 시 해상 익수자의 안전과 생명 보장을 위해 구조자산을 활용한 신속한 탐색 및 구조작전은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구는 해양관측부이에서 수집되는 기상정보에 다중선형회귀분석, 의사결정나무, 서포트벡터머신, 벡터자기회귀, 순환신경망의 LSTM을 활용하여 울릉도 북서해역의 표층해류를 분석하고 유향과 유속에 대한 각각의 예측모형을 구축하여 예측된 유향과 유속정보를 통해 해상 익수자의 이동경로를 예측하는 모형들을 제안한다. 본 연구에서 적용한 다양한 기계학습 모형을 MAE와 RMSE의 성능 평가척도로 비교해 볼 때 LSTM이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였다. 또한, 익수자 이동지점과 예측모형의 예측지점 간 거리 차이에 있어서도 LSTM이 다른 모형들에 비해 탁월한 성능을 나타내었다.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.35-43
• /
• 1992

Handling the emergency problems such as Chemobyl accident require real time prediction of pollutants dispersion. One-point real time sounding at pollutant source and simple model including turbulent-radiation process are very important to predict dispersion at real time. The stability categories obtained by one-dimensional numerical model (including PBL dynamics and radiative process) are good agreement with observational data (Golder, 1972). Therefore, the meteorological parameters (thermal, moisture and momentum fluxes; sensible and latent heat; Monin-Obukhov length and bulk Richardson number; vertical diffusion coefficient and TKE; mixing height) calculated by this model will be useful to understand the structure of stable boundary layer and to handling the emergency problems such as dangerous gasses accident. Especially, this simple model has strong merit for practical dispersion models which require turbulence process but does not takes long time to real predictions. According to the results of this model, the urban area has stronger vertical dispersion and weaker horizontal dispersion than rural area during daytime in summer season. The maximum stability class of urban area and rural area are "A" and "B" at 14 LST, respectively. After 20 LST, both urban and rural area have weak vertical dispersion, but they have strong horizontal dispersion. Generally, the urban area have larger radius of horizontal dispersion than rural area. Considering the resolution and time consuming problems of three dimensional grid model, one-dimensional model with one-point real sounding have strong merit for practical dispersion model.al dispersion model.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제32권6호
• /
• pp.662-674
• /
• 2014

본 연구는 전국 8개 권역(경기, 강원, 충남, 충북, 전남, 전북, 경남, 경북)에 4차로 이상도로(다차로 도로)구간 약 780km(4,372개구간)의 기하구조, 안전시설물, 교통량 및 기상, 토지이용, 도로설계기준 만족여부 등의 변수를 수집하여 사고건수 예측모형을 구축하였다. 모형은 고정모수 모형(fixed parameter model)과 확률모수 모형(random parameter model)을 사용하였다. 확률 모수 음이항 모형의 경우에 계수가 고정된 것이 아닌 특정확률을 가지고 범위로 표현함으로써 부호가 반대가 되는 경우도 일부 나타났다. 고정모수의 음이항 모형은 독립변수가 사고건수에 미치는 영향을 모든 구간에서 하나의 계수로 해석할 수 밖에 없었으나, 확률모수를 이용한 음이항 모형에서는 더욱 다양한 해석이 가능하였다. 특히, 곡선반경, 길 어깨 확보유무, 종단경사 설계기준 만족유무는 특정확률을 가지고 양의영향과 음의영향이 모두 나타났다. 이러한 현상은 모든 구간에서 일률적으로 사고건수 증감에 영향을 미친다기 보다는 일부구간에서는 운전자의 행동특성, 도로구간의 특성에 따라서 반대의 효과가 나타나기도 하는 것을 의미한다.

• 자동차안전학회지
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.114-122
• /
• 2021

In this paper, an automated vehicle intersection collision accident was analyzed through simulation. Recently, the more automated vehicles are distributed, the more accidents related to automated vehicles occur. Accidents may show different trends depending on the sensor characteristics of the automated vehicle and the performance of the accident prevention system. Based on NASS-CDS (National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System) and TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), four scenarios are derived and simulations are performed. Automated vehicles are applied with a virtual system consisting of an autonomous emergency braking system and algorithms that predict the route and avoid collisions. The simulations are conducted by changing the sensor angle, vehicle speed, the range of the sensor and vehicle speed range. A range of variables considered vehicle collision were derived from the simulation.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제30권6호
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2012

65세 이상 고령운전자의 경우 지난 10년 새 교통사고건수는 3만 7,000건에서 27만 4,000건으로 무려 640.5% 증가되었다. 이는 전체사고에서 차지하는 비율이 1.2%에서 3.1배 증가한 3.7%를 차지하고 있는 것으로 교통안전 관련기관에서는 여러 대책을 강구하고 있다. 무엇보다 고령운전자의 행동특성 및 신체특성에 대한 심층연구를 통해 안전대책과 연계하는 방안이 중요하다 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 고령운전자의 행동특성을 측정할 수 있는 운전자 적성검사(Driving Aptitude) 항목과 교통사고 자료를 토대로 고령운전자 운전특성과 사고특성을 연결한 실증연구를 수행하였다. 영향모형 개발을 위해 활용한 방법론은 영과잉 회귀모형을 적용하였고, ZIP 회귀모형과 ZINB 회귀모형에 대하여 베이지안 추론을 이용한 사고예측 모형을 선택하였다. AAE분석결과 ZIP 회귀모형이 적합하며, 3가지 변수속도예측, 주의전환, 인지능력이 고령자사고와 영향관계에 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.